Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., aiming to extend the global influence of the U.S. dollar in the digital realm [1][4]. Group 1: Motivations Behind the Stablecoin Legislation - The legislation is driven by four main considerations: personal interests of Trump, national interests of the U.S., the issue of U.S. national debt, and the promotion of digital financial infrastructure [3][4]. - Trump's personal interest is highlighted by his shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies post-2020 election, as he seeks funding through NFTs and support from the crypto community [3]. - The U.S. national interest is served by reinforcing the dominance of the dollar in the international market, with stablecoins currently holding a significant market share [3][4]. - The stablecoin market, with reserves exceeding $250 billion, is projected to potentially reach $2 trillion in the next 3-5 years, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and government interest costs [4]. - The development of stablecoins is expected to enhance blockchain technology and digital finance in the U.S., positioning the country favorably against emerging market central bank digital currencies [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Monetary System - The impact of stablecoins on the existing monetary system is expected to be gradual, with no immediate significant changes, as the current global monetary order remains dollar-centric [6]. - Long-term, stablecoins could disrupt the monetary system as their integration with real-world economies deepens [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If the regulatory framework of the "Genius Act" is effectively implemented, the risk of shadow banking may be mitigated due to the requirement for 100% reserves [7]. - However, the interconnectedness of stablecoins with cryptocurrencies poses risks, as market downturns in cryptocurrencies could lead to systemic issues [7]. - Emerging markets may face challenges from a potential "dollar-dominated + multinational corporations" model, which could threaten financial security and monetary sovereignty [9][10].

据国际清算银行消息，国际清算银行最新报告指出，稳定币未能在单一性、弹性和完整性测试中达到货 币体系支柱的要求，其未来角色仍不明朗。报告强调，稳定币在代币化方面有前景，但存在严重局限 性，可能只能充当辅助角色。报告建议，需实施技术中立的监管以确保金融体系的稳定性和完整性，同 时强调央行在代币化系统中的关键作用，提出代币化央行储备和政府证券或成未来货币体系基础。 ...

Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The dominance of the dollar was established post-World War II with the Bretton Woods system, supported by the strong economic power of the United States [3][5] - The dollar's status as the primary currency is reinforced by its significant share in global foreign exchange reserves, accounting for over 65% [7] - The dollar's position allows U.S. companies to mitigate exchange rate risks and attract substantial capital inflows into its financial markets [7] Group 2: Emerging Currency Challenges - The Indian Rupee has gained traction among developing countries, with agreements to settle oil transactions in Rupees, although India's economic development remains a limiting factor [9][14] - Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system has prompted a shift towards Ruble settlements for energy exports, which could challenge the dollar's dominance if successful [11][13] - The Chinese Yuan is emerging as a strong competitor to the dollar, supported by China's robust economic growth and increasing global acceptance [14][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The increasing reliance on the Yuan by countries like Brazil, which saw a threefold increase in its foreign reserves in Yuan, indicates a growing trend away from the dollar [16][18] - The long-term potential for the Yuan to challenge the dollar hinges on China's comprehensive economic strength and manufacturing capabilities [20] - Overall, while the Rupee and Ruble are making strides, the Yuan is positioned as the most formidable challenger to dollar hegemony in the future [20]