1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 11, 2025 - A-share market declined with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4002.76, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03% to 13289.01, and ChiNext Index down 1.40% to 3134.32. Trading volume was 19936 billion, a decrease of 1809 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4652.17, down 42.88 [2] - The weighted coke index closed at 1717.6, down 59.5; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1231.8 yuan, down 40.7 [2][3] - Palm oil futures rose 0.92% to 8770, with a high of 8850 and a low of 8678 [5] - Shanghai copper futures rose 0.35% to 86630 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore futures rose 0.2% to 763 yuan [5] - Asphalt futures rose 0.56% to 3050 yuan [5] - Rebar (rb2601) closed at 3025 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil (hc2601) at 3242 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina (ao2601) closed at 2816 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum (al2601) at 21665 yuan/ton [7] 2. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Terminal consumption is in the off-season, steel inventory pressure is increasing, and steel mills maintain a just-in-time procurement rhythm. However, rising coking costs have reduced coking profits, leading coke enterprises to push for a fourth price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [4] - Coking coal: Environmental restrictions in Wuhai are still strict, and coal mine production expansion is slow. Although Shanxi's overproduction governance is in the expected stage, actual production control measures have not significantly increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher. Analysts expect a 8.1% increase in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central-south region in the second half of October to 2942 million tons, and a 7.8% increase in sugar production to 192 million tons [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures adjusted due to technical factors after a sharp rise. As of November 9, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.18 million tons to 44.95 million tons, with a 0.40% increase. Bonded warehouse inventory decreased by 0.74% to 6.78 million tons, and general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 38.17 million tons [4] Palm Oil - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and production decreased by 2.16% [5] Shanghai Copper - Supply shortages in mines and strong Chinese terminal consumption support copper prices. The price is oscillating at a high level due to macro - sentiment, with a bullish technical pattern [5] Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract on the night of November 11 was 13535 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 325 lots. On November 10, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.15 - 6.35 yuan/kg [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Due to increased steel mill losses and maintenance, pig iron production has declined for 5 consecutive periods. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillating trend [5] Asphalt - Asphalt production capacity utilization decreased, and inventory continued to decline. With weak terminal demand due to cold weather, the price is oscillating [5] Steel - Seasonal off - season and a weak real estate market have led to weak steel demand in November. As steel mill losses increase, maintenance and production cuts are intensifying. Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [6] Alumina - Supply has not seen large - scale production cuts, and new capacity is expected. Although trade and electrolytic aluminum procurement support the spot price, the current fundamentals lack positive factors. The price is undervalued [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Winter environmental protection may affect some enterprises' operations, but production changes are expected to be small. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in November. High - level price oscillations, environmental restrictions, and weak demand will limit price increases [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures broke through the previous oscillation range and drove the entire black - series to run strongly. The external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and the central bank and other six departments issued policies to boost the stock market. The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July, improving the domestic macro - sentiment. There is an expected game around the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - In the spot market, the trading sentiment recovered this week. Under the pattern of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and inventory reduction of coking coal, the price got a short - term rebound drive. However, due to the expected accumulation of steel inventory, the demand for furnace materials is affected, and there is pressure on the upside of the rebound. The pressure around 860 should be noted. After the fourth round of price cut of coke was implemented, and the coking coal price was supported at a low level, the average loss per ton of coke for coking enterprises increased. As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies, with the expectation of further price cuts postponed [6]. - The coking coal supply is shrinking, and the overall inventory has decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Coking enterprises replenished raw materials, and coke inventory continued to decline. Steel mills replenished coking coal and reduced coke inventory. The overall coke production remained stable, and the molten iron production changed little, supporting the coke demand. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - As of June 24, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The non - housing project capital availability rate was 61.02%, up 0.05 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project capital availability rate was 49.59%, up 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5]. - On the 26th, safety inspections in the Guxian area of Linfen became stricter. There were no new coal mine shutdowns except for 2 mines that had shut down due to belt replacement. Affected by safety inspections, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The effective operating coal mines in Guxian had a total capacity of 690 million tons, with a daily raw coal output of only 13,700 tons [7]. - Recently, the purchasing sentiment in the Luliang coking coal market has improved, and the prices of some coking coal types have increased. The new orders of some coal mines in Lishi were about 100,000 tons, and there was a phenomenon of vehicles waiting for coal. Except for lean coal, the offline prices of high - sulfur main coking coal also increased, and the auction success rate improved [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Coking coal supply has shrunk, downstream has replenished inventory in the short term, and domestic policies encourage consumption [10]. - Bearish factors: Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply contraction**: The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 82.48%, a decrease of 2.01% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 738,200 tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from last week. The opening rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week, and the daily output was 501,450 tons, a decrease of 840,000 tons from last week. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and both imports and domestic production declined significantly [12]. - **Significant weekly reduction of coking coal inventory**: As of the week of June 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.6309 billion tons, a reduction of 360,600 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3187 billion tons, a reduction of 55,200 tons from last week; the port inventory was 2.8559 billion tons, a reduction of 177,200 tons from last week [14]. - **Coking enterprises replenish raw materials and coke inventory continues to decline**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.0898 billion tons, an increase of 131,900 tons. The available days of inventory were 9.43 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.1303 billion tons, a reduction of 25,500 tons [17]. - **Steel mills replenish coking coal and reduce coke inventory**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8121 billion tons, an increase of 65,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.39 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2775 billion tons, a reduction of 64,500 tons from the previous period, and the available days were 11.22 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [21]. - **Stable overall coke production**: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 645,100 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.46%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 474,300 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [25]. - **Little change in molten iron production, supporting coke demand**: As of the week of June 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0903 billion tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4229 billion tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The blast furnace opening rate was 83.82%, the same as last week [26]. - **The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed**: As of the week of June 27, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week. With the coking coal price running strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The futures market has stabilized and rebounded first, and the spot trading has been active and stabilized [30]. 3.4后市研判 - Recently, the external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and domestic policies improved the macro - sentiment. The spot market trading sentiment recovered this week. Coking coal has a short - term rebound drive, but there is pressure on the upside due to the expected steel inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 860 [32]. - As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies. The expectation of further price cuts is postponed. In the short term, the coke futures will fluctuate with the cost - side coking coal [35].