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大象论股|3500点后怎么走?《大象财经•论股》指点迷津
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 05:54
指数创新高的一个重要推力是大金融板块,一方面,银行板块表现强劲,工、农、建、中四大行股价刷新历史纪录;到了周五,券商股又接过领涨大旗。 本周沪指成功站上3500点,创下年内新高。周内沪指上涨1.09%、深证成指上涨1.78%、创业板指涨2.36%。量能也有所回升,尤其在7月11日,两市成交额 达到1.71万亿,创3月15日以来新高。 此外,距离8月1日中国香港《稳定币条例》生效还有一段时间,稳定币及相关的区块链、数字货币概念持续活跃。 消息面上,本周内上海国资委召开专题学习会,提出"探索区块链技术在跨境贸易、供应链金融等领域的运用",这是内地地方政府首次系统性研究稳定币发 展路径。上海作为国际金融中心,其动作被市场解读为监管层对稳定币"技术中性"态度的延续,可能为未来离岸人民币稳定币试点埋下伏笔。比特币也站上 11.8万美元关口,创新高,刺激A股相关概念拉升。 周内出现明显回调的是前期涨幅过高的PCB概念。 消费概念也出现异动,本周初由于外卖平台价格战带动餐饮销量增加,A股食品饮料等板块拉升,港股奶茶股大涨。但是在周五,港股新消费股走低,"新 消费三姐妹"老铺黄金、泡泡玛特、蜜雪冰城股价都在当日午后出现跳水, ...
中国钢铁工业协会副会长:中国作为世界最大的钢铁内需市场将长期存在
news flash· 2025-07-12 04:58
7月11日-12日,2025"我的钢铁"年中大会暨钢铁产业链协同创新高质量发展论坛在北京召开,中国钢铁 工业协会副会长王颖生在会上作《关税政策下的钢铁行业高质量发展趋势》的演讲,他表示,短期看, 2025年下半年国内钢铁需求大概率仍将呈下降走势。建筑业对用钢需求的兜底作用将持续减弱。制造业 用钢是近年来支撑钢材消费增量的核心,但存在一些潜在不利因素。综合考虑贸易摩擦、美国关税政策 等因素,下半年钢材的高位出口或不可持续。长期看,中国钢铁需求仍将在峰值平台区间维持较长一段 时间,预测到2035年中国粗钢产量为8亿-9亿吨,2050年以后预计将保持在8亿吨左右,中国作为世界最 大的钢铁内需市场将长期存在。 ...
杭氧股份20250710
2025-07-11 01:05
杭氧股份在 2025 年二、三季度的业绩表现可能超出市场预期,主要基于以下 几个方面: 首先,管道气业务预计将带来显著增长。2024 年公司管道气收入 约为 60 亿至 70 亿元,今年(2025 年)预计将有明显增长,主要原因是去年 新投产了 65 万方左右的项目,设备固定量增速达到接近 30%。此外,高炉开 工率和产能利用率较高,汽车、家电等行业实施了大量国家补贴,以旧换新和 消费刺激政策,这些都推动了钢铁需求,从而维持了高水平的铁水产量和高炉 开工率。 其次,在零售业务方面,公司预计液体产能将增加约 30%。零售气 体价格方面,由于去年 6 月开始氮气、氧气和氩气价格快速下滑,今年(2025 年)三季度预计会出现同比增长。此外,今年(2025 年)供给端检修力度加 大,例如西北地区一些大型炼化企业进行了两到三年的大检修,对供给产生明 显影响。同时,储罐库容率较低,例如氮气库容率在今年(2025 年)5 月底为 32%左右,同比低 10 个百分点,这导致企业需要外购更多氮气,从而推高当 地价格。 最后,在设备业务方面,公司延续了去年以来的良好态势。整体来看, 今年(2025 年)的产业结构性变化以及供需不 ...
唐山钢铁限产,几家欢喜几家愁?河钢股份:对排放做得不好的企业影响较大
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-07-10 12:54
Core Viewpoint - The recent news about a potential 30% production cut in Tangshan's steel industry has stirred the market, but the immediate impact on steel prices and stocks appears to be stabilizing, with a long-term downward trend in steel prices expected [2][6]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Tangshan's steel production cut is expected to reduce iron water capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day, which may alleviate supply pressure in the region and stabilize the market [5][6]. - The production cut rumors primarily target sintering processes, and companies like Hebei Steel, which have high environmental performance ratings, are expected to be less affected [5][6]. - Despite initial market optimism following the production cut news, steel prices have begun to decline again, with rebar prices averaging 3,182 yuan per ton as of July 8, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Financial Performance - In 2017, Hebei Steel's production was reduced due to environmental restrictions, with iron, crude steel, and steel product outputs decreasing by 6.66%, 7.04%, and 5.31% respectively [3]. - The steel industry saw a significant profit increase in 2021, with major steel enterprises achieving a total profit of 352.4 billion yuan, a 59.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - Hebei Steel's revenue in 2021 was 149.63 billion yuan, a 38.98% increase, while its net profit grew by 58.32% to 2.688 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face continued pressure in the second half of the year, with average steel prices projected to decline compared to the first half [7][8]. - However, there is a potential for a short-term rebound in steel prices as seasonal demand increases, contingent on production control measures and supply-demand dynamics [8].
【期货热点追踪】大商所铁矿石期货三连涨,价格创2月底以来新高,钢铁行业改革预期升温,铁矿石市场‘强现实与弱预期’博弈,价格能否继续上涨?
news flash· 2025-07-10 05:57
大商所铁矿石期货三连涨,价格创2月底以来新高,钢铁行业改革预期升温,铁矿石市场'强现实与弱预 期'博弈,价格能否继续上涨? 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
南钢申请极寒环境破冰船用510Mpa级钢板及其制造方法专利,力学性能好
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-09 05:03
天眼查资料显示,南京钢铁股份有限公司,成立于1999年,位于南京市,是一家以从事黑色金属冶炼和 压延加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本616509.1011万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析,南京钢铁股份 有限公司共对外投资了58家企业,参与招投标项目5000次,财产线索方面有商标信息18条,专利信息 4537条,此外企业还拥有行政许可102个。 专利摘要显示,本发明公开了一种极寒环境破冰船用510Mpa级钢板,其化学成分重量百分比为C:0.03 ~0.08%,Si:0.10~0.50%,Mn:1.00~1.90%,P≤0.020%,S≤0.0020%,V:0.020~0.050%,Ni: 0.30~1.50%,Cr:0.20~0.70%,Nb:0.010~0.040%,Alt:0.010~0.050%,Ti:0.003~0.030%, Ca:0.0005~0.0040%,N≤0.0050%,其余为Fe及不可避免杂质。本发明的优点是钢板屈服强度 ≥390MPa,抗拉强度≥510MPa,母材‑60℃平均冲击功≥220J,近表NDTT温度≤‑60℃,力学性能好。 金融界2025年7月9日消息,国家知识产权局信息显示,南京 ...
日本经济产业省:预计7-9月日本钢铁产品需求(含出口)同比将下降4.2%,至1838万吨。
news flash· 2025-07-08 03:04
日本经济产业省:预计7-9月日本钢铁产品需求(含出口)同比将下降4.2%,至1838万吨。 ...
日本经济产业省:预计7-9月日本钢铁产量将较上一季度下降0.4%,至2011万吨。
news flash· 2025-07-08 03:04
日本经济产业省:预计7-9月日本钢铁产量将较上一季度下降0.4%,至2011万吨。 ...
鸿路钢构(002541):Q2订单对应加工量同比增长,重视钢铁供给侧改革带来的业绩弹性
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-08 00:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in both order volume and processing volume, highlighting investment opportunities in the steel structure sector at a relatively low point [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to improved profitability as steel prices rise [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has invested in advanced manufacturing technologies, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 14.38 billion, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, new orders amounted to 7.328 billion, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The steel structure production for the first half of 2025 reached 2.3625 million tons, up 12.19% year-on-year, with Q2 production at 1.3134 million tons, an increase of 10.56% year-on-year [1][2]. Pricing and Market Trends - The company has seen an increase in the number of large contracts (over 10,000 tons) from 6 in Q2 2021 to 18 in Q2 2025. The average price per ton for new orders in Q2 2025 ranged from 4,535 to 8,494 yuan, indicating a 5.11% increase in average price compared to Q2 2024 [2]. - Steel prices have stabilized between 3,160 and 3,370 yuan per ton, with an average of 3,233 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.2% [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 868.65 million, 1,015.91 million, and 1,222.03 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.14, 12.09, and 10.05 [5][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 21,514.36 million in 2024 to 33,629.99 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has established a dedicated research team for intelligent manufacturing and has invested in various advanced production technologies, including automated cutting and welding equipment, which are expected to enhance production efficiency [4].
前五月我国钢铁行业效益提升 供需状况改善 生产成本下降
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-07-07 21:55
冶金工业信息标准研究院院长张龙强表示,今年前5月我国钢铁行业运行平稳,经济效益大幅提升,得 益于供需状况的改善。 在供给侧,2025年以来,钢铁行业自律控产力度加大,我国粗钢产量同比呈现一定下降趋势,供需矛盾 有所缓和,库存压力得到阶段性缓解,对钢价形成一定支撑,也改善了行业整体经营环境。中国钢铁工 业协会秘书长姜维认为,在行业盈利的情况下,全行业粗钢产量实现了1.7%减量,这是1—5月钢铁行 业效益的保证。 在需求侧,一方面,"两新"政策对钢铁消费拉动作用不断显现。前5月,我国汽车产销量同比增长均超 10%,家电和音像器材类商品零售额增长30.2%。另一方面,出口增长的态势显著,前5月我国钢材累计 出口4846.9万吨,同比增长8.5%,为钢材需求提供了支撑。 记者从中国钢铁工业协会获悉:1—5月,全国粗钢产量4.32亿吨,同比下降1.7%。在利润方面,钢铁行 业有积极变化,国家统计局数据显示,1—5月,我国黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业累计实现利润总额 316.9亿元,盈利情况好于2024年全年的291.9亿元。 此外,在成本端,铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭等主要原料价格相较去年高位出现明显回落,有效降低了钢厂的 生产成 ...