证券研究报告 电子 | 消费电子 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 02 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 王硕 SAC：S1350524120002 wangshuo@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 月 01 | 日 | | 09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 90.00 | | | | | 一 年 内 高 低 | 最 | / | | | 129.51/71.58 | | 最 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 102,631.55 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 102,631.55 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 1,140.35 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with significant revenue growth and improving operational metrics, indicating a positive outlook for future sales and profitability [1][2][3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8% [1] - The automotive business generated 14.37 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 159.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.1%, primarily driven by increased delivery volumes [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 yuan in Q4 2024 to 152,900 yuan in Q1 2025 [1] Profitability Metrics - The automotive business reported a gross profit of 1.51 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0 percentage points [2] - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion yuan, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [2] - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion yuan, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [2] Cash Position - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 45.28 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to range between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [3] - Projected revenue for this sales volume is estimated to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5% [3] Product Development - The company plans to launch several new models, including the XPeng MONAM03 Max and the next-generation P7, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness and stimulate sales growth [3][4] - The deployment of the Turing chip is set to begin in Q2 2025, with applications extending beyond the automotive sector into robotics, aiming for mass production of humanoid robots by 2026 [4] Investment Perspective - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 94.58 billion yuan in 2025 to 170.08 billion yuan in 2027, with projected net profits improving from a loss of 6.6 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 75.4 billion yuan in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which will enhance its competitive position and stimulate sales growth [7][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [4]. - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q1 2025 was 24.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [4]. Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, mainly due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB, respectively [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a net profit for 2026 of 4.6 billion RMB, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/S ratio of 1.4 in 2025, decreasing to 0.8 by 2027 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, indicating strong operational performance despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Q1 2025 revenue reached 15.81 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 14.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 159.2% driven by increased delivery volumes [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 RMB in Q4 2024 to 152,900 RMB in Q1 2025 [2]. - Other business revenues amounted to 1.44 billion RMB, up 43.6% year-on-year, primarily due to increased technical service income from collaborations with Volkswagen Group [2]. Profitability Analysis - The automotive business gross profit was 1.51 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion RMB, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall gross margin improvement was attributed to increased sales volume leading to lower vehicle costs and economies of scale, although some gains were offset by inventory impairment and procurement losses [3]. Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5%, down 8.1 percentage points [4]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [4]. Market Presence - As of Q1 2025, the company operated 690 sales centers across 223 cities, maintaining its market coverage [5]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents totaling 45.28 billion RMB, indicating a strong liquidity position [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%, with projected revenue of approximately 17.5 billion to 18.7 billion RMB [5]. - A strong product cycle is expected to commence, with new models set to launch, which may further stimulate sales and enhance competitiveness [6][7]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by model cycles, organizational innovation, and advancements in AI technology [8]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 94.58 billion, 147.63 billion, and 170.08 billion RMB, with net profits of -660 million, 4.64 billion, and 7.54 billion RMB respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating ongoing operational improvements [4] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which are anticipated to stimulate sales growth and enhance competitive positioning in the long term [7][8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, driven by increased delivery volumes [4] - The company forecasts automotive sales for Q1 2025 to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with expected revenue of approximately 175 billion to 187 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 115.7% to 130.5% [5] Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, while the R&D expense ratio decreased by 8.1 percentage points year-on-year to 12.5% [5] - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5] Financial Outlook - The company expects revenues of 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected to be -6.6 billion RMB, 46.4 billion RMB, and 75.4 billion RMB [8][9] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company's financial performance driven by new model cycles and organizational innovations [8]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Shanghai International Automobile Exhibition opened with the theme "Embrace Innovation, Win the Future," attracting nearly 1,000 exhibitors from 26 countries and regions, marking the largest scale in history [1][2] - The exhibition covers over 360,000 square meters, featuring more than 100 global debut models and hosting 193 press conferences, with an expected total visitor count of 1.3 million [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The exhibition highlights the automotive industry's shift towards intelligent mobility, showcasing advancements in assisted driving and smart cockpit technologies that enhance consumer experiences [1][3] - Nearly 80% of the new vehicles unveiled are electric models, indicating car manufacturers' accurate predictions of market trends [3] Group 3: AI Integration - AI technology is deeply integrated into the automotive industry, with significant applications in smart vehicles, as noted by industry leaders [3][4] - Companies like Xiaopeng Motors are developing AI systems that aim to surpass human capabilities in complex reasoning and driving assistance [5] Group 4: International Participation - The number of foreign visitors at the exhibition has significantly increased, with over 2,000 overseas business representatives attending on the first day [6] - Foreign automakers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are actively engaging in the Chinese market, emphasizing their commitment to innovation and local development [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The exhibition is seen as a milestone for China's transition from a major automotive nation to a strong automotive power, providing a "Chinese solution" for global industry transformation [8]