机构：长江证券 研究员：高伊楠/张扬 事件描述 何小鹏增持公司股份，彰显发展前景及信心。新车周期下，销量结构持续改善，带来单车收入和盈利能 力提升，2025 年Q2 汽车业务毛利率超预期，达14.3%。新车持续高热度，小鹏新P7 定位旗舰时尚轿 跑，集科技、运动、轻奢于一体，打造时尚科技设计新标杆，预售6 分37 秒，小订突破1 万台，预售订 单已创历史车型同期新高。同时出海加速拓展，根据中汽协，小鹏2025 年Q2 出海销量1.1 万辆，同比 +150.2%，环比+45.6%。与大众合作方面，小鹏持续深化与大众合作范围，拓展至油车及插混车，有望 持续增厚服务业务收入，商业模式拓展持续增厚公司盈利能力。 展望2025Q3，公司预期交付量11.3-11.8 万辆，同比增长142.8-153.6%，预期收入196-210 亿元，同比增 长94.0%-107.9%。强势新车周期，月度销量持续强势，后续新车密集上市有望持续增强销量。新款小鹏 G6、G9 上市即热销。7 月3 日小鹏G7 正式上市，9分钟大定突破10000 台，8 月6 日全新一代P7 正式亮 相，Q3 两款全新的重磅车型开始交付，持续推升销量，Q4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has signed an expanded strategic cooperation agreement with Volkswagen Group to jointly develop electronic and electrical architecture, which will be applied not only to electric vehicle platforms but also to fuel and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Chinese market. This collaboration is expected to enhance service revenue [2][4]. - The company is entering a strong new vehicle cycle with the launch of models like MONA M03 and P7+, which is anticipated to drive sales growth. The new models have already seen significant demand, with the G7 model achieving over 10,000 pre-orders in just 9 minutes [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 99.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4X, indicating a substantial improvement in financial performance due to software revenue from Volkswagen [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is deepening its cooperation with Volkswagen, expanding the scope to include procurement, supply chain, electric vehicle platforms, and electronic architecture, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [9]. Sales and New Models - The new models G6 and G9 have been well-received in the market, achieving sales leadership in their segments. The upcoming models are expected to further boost sales, with a focus on achieving positive cash flow by Q4 [9]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to turn profitable in Q4 and achieve a positive free cash flow for the year, supported by the new vehicle launches and improved operational efficiencies [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - On May 28, 2025, the company launched the MONA M03 MAX version, which includes two models: the 502 Long Range Max priced at 129,800 yuan and the 600 Ultra Long Range Max priced at 139,800 yuan. These models feature the full-version AI Tianji system and Turing driving assistance, achieving the strongest urban intelligent driving assistance capabilities in their class. The company is expected to accelerate sales due to a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Financial performance is anticipated to improve continuously due to scale enhancement, cost reduction from platforms and technologies, and the expansion of software profitability models alongside ongoing international growth [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The MONA M03 MAX version was officially launched on May 28, 2025, featuring two models with prices of 129,800 yuan and 139,800 yuan, equipped with advanced AI systems and driving assistance technologies [4]. Sales and Financial Projections - The expected delivery volume for Q2 2025 is between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%. Projected revenue for this period is between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5%. The company anticipates a strong new vehicle cycle with multiple new models set to launch, which is expected to enhance sales further [6][9]. Competitive Advantage - The MONA M03 Max is the first in its class to feature dual Orin-X chips, providing a computing power of 508 TOPS, significantly surpassing competitors. The intelligent driving capabilities are designed to adapt to driver styles, allowing for seamless control transfer between the driver and the vehicle [9]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a single-quarter profit turnaround by Q4 2025, with an overall positive cash flow for the year. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 99.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.3X, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance as the company enters a new vehicle cycle [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with significant revenue growth and improving operational metrics, indicating a positive outlook for future sales and profitability [1][2][3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8% [1] - The automotive business generated 14.37 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 159.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.1%, primarily driven by increased delivery volumes [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 yuan in Q4 2024 to 152,900 yuan in Q1 2025 [1] Profitability Metrics - The automotive business reported a gross profit of 1.51 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0 percentage points [2] - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion yuan, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [2] - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion yuan, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [2] Cash Position - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 45.28 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to range between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [3] - Projected revenue for this sales volume is estimated to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5% [3] Product Development - The company plans to launch several new models, including the XPeng MONAM03 Max and the next-generation P7, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness and stimulate sales growth [3][4] - The deployment of the Turing chip is set to begin in Q2 2025, with applications extending beyond the automotive sector into robotics, aiming for mass production of humanoid robots by 2026 [4] Investment Perspective - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 94.58 billion yuan in 2025 to 170.08 billion yuan in 2027, with projected net profits improving from a loss of 6.6 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 75.4 billion yuan in 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant growth in Q1 2023, with a 330.8% year-on-year increase in delivery volume, leading to improved revenue and gross profit, positioning the company on the brink of profitability [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2023, Xiaopeng's total revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% increase year-on-year, with automotive sales revenue accounting for 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% [3]. - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1, contributing to a gross margin of 15.6%, with automotive gross margin at 10.5% [3]. - The average cost per vehicle was 137,000 yuan, while the average selling price was 153,000 yuan, resulting in a vehicle gross profit of approximately 16,000 yuan [3]. Investment in R&D and Expenses - Xiaopeng increased its R&D expenditure to 1.98 billion yuan, a 46.7% rise, primarily for expanding its product lineup and developing new technologies [5]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to 1.95 billion yuan, a 40.2% increase, driven by higher commissions due to increased sales [5]. - The net loss for Q1 was 660 million yuan, but this represented a 51.5% reduction year-on-year due to rapid delivery growth [5]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2023, Xiaopeng expects vehicle deliveries between 102,000 and 108,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 237.7% to 257.5%, with total revenue projected between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan [5]. - The company aims for over double the sales volume for the full year 2025 and anticipates achieving positive free cash flow by the end of the year [5]. New Product Launches - Xiaopeng plans to upgrade five models in Q2 and introduce two new models in Q3, focusing on higher price segments with better gross margins [6]. - The MONA M03 Max will be launched on May 28, featuring advanced AI driving assistance, while the G7 SUV will be pre-released in June [7]. International Expansion - Xiaopeng aims to enter over 60 countries and regions by the end of the year, targeting 50% of sales from overseas markets in the next decade [9]. - In Q1, the company exported 7,615 vehicles, with overseas sales increasing by over 370% year-on-year, and opened more than 40 new stores internationally [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, indicating strong operational performance despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Q1 2025 revenue reached 15.81 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 14.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 159.2% driven by increased delivery volumes [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 RMB in Q4 2024 to 152,900 RMB in Q1 2025 [2]. - Other business revenues amounted to 1.44 billion RMB, up 43.6% year-on-year, primarily due to increased technical service income from collaborations with Volkswagen Group [2]. Profitability Analysis - The automotive business gross profit was 1.51 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion RMB, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall gross margin improvement was attributed to increased sales volume leading to lower vehicle costs and economies of scale, although some gains were offset by inventory impairment and procurement losses [3]. Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5%, down 8.1 percentage points [4]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [4]. Market Presence - As of Q1 2025, the company operated 690 sales centers across 223 cities, maintaining its market coverage [5]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents totaling 45.28 billion RMB, indicating a strong liquidity position [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%, with projected revenue of approximately 17.5 billion to 18.7 billion RMB [5]. - A strong product cycle is expected to commence, with new models set to launch, which may further stimulate sales and enhance competitiveness [6][7]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by model cycles, organizational innovation, and advancements in AI technology [8]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 94.58 billion, 147.63 billion, and 170.08 billion RMB, with net profits of -660 million, 4.64 billion, and 7.54 billion RMB respectively [10].

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors has shifted its focus to profitability in 2023, with Q1 losses narrowing to 660 million yuan, significantly below market expectations of 1.386 billion yuan [2][3] - The company reported Q1 revenue of 15.8 billion yuan, a 141.5% increase from 6.55 billion yuan in the same period last year, and achieved a historical high gross margin of 15.6% [2][3][5] Financial Performance - Xiaopeng's cash reserves reached 45.28 billion yuan, increasing by 3.32 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1, exceeding previous guidance by 330% year-on-year [5][9] - Revenue from other business segments amounted to 1.44 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 66.4%, indicating a stable income stream from partnerships [5] Market Reaction - Following the positive earnings report, Xiaopeng's stock price surged over 16% in pre-market trading and closed up 13%, adding over 17 billion yuan to its market capitalization [3] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about Xiaopeng's structural recovery and clear profitability path, citing strong product delivery and cash flow [3] Product Development - The success of new models, particularly the MONA M03 and P7+, has contributed to increased delivery volumes [4][5] - Upcoming models include the G7 SUV, a revamped P7, and the Kunpeng super electric vehicle, aimed at higher market segments [8][9] Strategic Direction - Xiaopeng aims to double its sales this year and achieve positive cash flow by Q4, transitioning from a financing-dependent model to a self-sustaining one [6] - The company is also exploring robotics, with plans to deploy advanced chips in its fifth-generation robots by 2026 [10] Leadership Perspective - CEO He Xiaopeng emphasized the importance of organizational, product, marketing, and technological capabilities in maintaining momentum and achieving profitability [11]

5月21日晚，小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK）召开业绩会。同日稍早，小鹏汽车刚刚发布了第一季度业绩，单 季销量同比增长3.3倍至9.4万台，取得新势力销量第一，营收同比增长1.4倍至158亿元，成绩相当亮 眼。 业绩会上，何小鹏认为，强劲的增长势能在2025年将会持续。他的依据是，今年第二季度，小鹏汽车将 完成5个车型的年款升级或者增配，在三季度会有两款全新的重磅车型开始交付和放量。 具体来看，今年6月，小鹏汽车将推出全新车型小鹏G7。何小鹏认为，G7会是25万级别SUV市场非常有 竞争力的新产品。此外，今年第三季度小鹏还将推出30万级别豪华运动轿跑、全新一代小鹏P7。 据了解，5月28日，小鹏汽车即将发布MONA M03 Max满血版本，将图灵AI辅助驾驶首次普及到15万级 产品。何小鹏指出，目前市面上15万级别的产品所搭载的智驾功能基本上都是高速或者城市记忆驾驶， 他认为都不是"满血版"，他期望满血版的智能辅助驾驶在15万级的用户比例"越高越好"。 关于MONA系列，何小鹏透露，在2026年会推出MONA系列更多车型，该系列针对年轻用户，会做到 高颜值、强智能化。"我相信明年大家会看到，MONA系列会成为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is set to unveil its new model G7 in June, targeting the 250,000 RMB SUV market [1] Group 1: Product Launches - The G7 will be introduced in June, aiming to penetrate the 250,000 RMB SUV segment [1] - In the third quarter, Xiaopeng will launch a luxury sports sedan priced at 300,000 RMB, which is the next generation of the P7 [1] - The fourth quarter will see the gradual production of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle, achieving a "dual-energy" vehicle concept [1]