机构：长江证券 研究员：高伊楠/张扬 事件描述 何小鹏增持公司股份，彰显发展前景及信心。新车周期下，销量结构持续改善，带来单车收入和盈利能 力提升，2025 年Q2 汽车业务毛利率超预期，达14.3%。新车持续高热度，小鹏新P7 定位旗舰时尚轿 跑，集科技、运动、轻奢于一体，打造时尚科技设计新标杆，预售6 分37 秒，小订突破1 万台，预售订 单已创历史车型同期新高。同时出海加速拓展，根据中汽协，小鹏2025 年Q2 出海销量1.1 万辆，同比 +150.2%，环比+45.6%。与大众合作方面，小鹏持续深化与大众合作范围，拓展至油车及插混车，有望 持续增厚服务业务收入，商业模式拓展持续增厚公司盈利能力。 展望2025Q3，公司预期交付量11.3-11.8 万辆，同比增长142.8-153.6%，预期收入196-210 亿元，同比增 长94.0%-107.9%。强势新车周期，月度销量持续强势，后续新车密集上市有望持续增强销量。新款小鹏 G6、G9 上市即热销。7 月3 日小鹏G7 正式上市，9分钟大定突破10000 台，8 月6 日全新一代P7 正式亮 相，Q3 两款全新的重磅车型开始交付，持续推升销量，Q4 ...

机构：交银国际 研究员：陈庆/李柳晓 汽车毛利率超预期。2Q25 小鹏汽车营收 182.7 亿元 （人民币，下同），环比升15.6%，略低于市场和 我们预期。汽车销量 10.3 万辆，环比增 9.8%。受车型结构影响，G6/G9/X9 占比环比上升，而低价M03 占比下降影响，单价ASP16.4 万元，环比升1.1 万元，基本符合预期。在单价和车型结构改变、及规模 效应下，汽车毛利率14.3%，环比大幅改善3.9 个百分点，超市场和我们预期。研发/销售费用环比增 11.4%，均低于收入增长，占收比环比略降。2 季度公司净亏损4.8 亿元/non-GAAP 净亏损 3.8 亿元，亏 损按季进一步收窄。 公司预计3Q25 营收为 196 亿-210 亿元，按中位数环比增长~11.9%。预计交付量为 11.3 万至 11.8 万 辆，按中位数环比增长~11.1%。收入和交付指引隐含的单价预期~17 万元，环比提升 0.6 万元，反映3 季度车型结构或进一步改善，毛利率环比亦可能进一步改善。同时小鹏维持4 季度盈利的指引。 单价、毛利率有望持续边际向上，看好后续一车双能平台车型对利润的正面贡献。全新一代 P7 已亮相 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - The report highlights a significant revenue increase for Bubble Mart, achieving RMB 13.88 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Bubble Mart reached RMB 4.71 billion, a substantial increase of 362.8% year-on-year, with improved profitability reflected in a gross margin of 70.3% and a net profit margin of 33.9% [1][2] - Management has raised the full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to no less than RMB 30 billion, previously set at RMB 20 billion, with an expected net profit margin of 35% [1][2] Group 2: IP Diversification and Market Expansion - Bubble Mart's diverse IP matrix has driven rapid revenue growth, with the core IP "The Monsters" series seeing a staggering 668% increase in revenue to RMB 4.81 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has expanded its IP portfolio, with four other major IPs generating over RMB 1 billion each, alleviating concerns about reliance on a single IP [2] - Both domestic and overseas markets have shown rapid growth, with plans to increase store presence in overseas markets to over 200 by year-end, including more than 60 in the Americas [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Market Position - The report projects a 39-49% increase in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price adjustment to HKD 394.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating for Bubble Mart [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong IP operation capabilities and ongoing globalization efforts, positioning it as a preferred stock in the consumer sector [2] Group 4: Other Company Highlights - WuXi AppTec reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 2.7 billion in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin improvement to 36.1% [3] - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance from 35% to over 45%, anticipating continued margin improvements in the second half of 2025 [3] - The report notes that the company is expected to invest RMB 1.56 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, with a total of RMB 7 billion by 2029 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 74.8% from the current price of HKD 77.05 [3][11]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching RMB 18.27 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. Vehicle sales were 103,181 units, up 9.8% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) was RMB 164,000, reflecting a slight increase of RMB 1,100 [2][8]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 21 billion, with a median quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 11.9%. The expected delivery volume is between 113,000 and 118,000 units, indicating a median quarter-on-quarter growth of about 11.1% [2][8]. - The company maintains its guidance for profitability in Q4 2025, supported by the launch of new models and improvements in vehicle structure [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.68 billion in 2023, RMB 40.87 billion in 2024, RMB 86.17 billion in 2025, RMB 113.34 billion in 2026, and RMB 125.49 billion in 2027, with significant growth rates expected [7][13]. - The company anticipates a net loss of RMB 10.38 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 5.79 billion in 2024, and expects to achieve a profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 [7][13]. - The gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with expectations of 14.3% in 2025 and further increases in subsequent years [15]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the upcoming "Kunpeng Super Electric System" and the first range-extended/pure electric platform, which are expected to enter mass production in Q4 2025, contributing positively to gross margins [2][8]. - The introduction of the new generation P7 and the gradual rollout of self-developed Turing chips are expected to support short-term ASP and gross margin improvements [2][8]. - The company is positioned as a high-certainty investment among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with anticipated sales growth driven by the introduction of new models and advancements in autonomous driving technology [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has signed an expanded strategic cooperation agreement with Volkswagen Group to jointly develop electronic and electrical architecture, which will be applied not only to electric vehicle platforms but also to fuel and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Chinese market. This collaboration is expected to enhance service revenue [2][4]. - The company is entering a strong new vehicle cycle with the launch of models like MONA M03 and P7+, which is anticipated to drive sales growth. The new models have already seen significant demand, with the G7 model achieving over 10,000 pre-orders in just 9 minutes [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 99.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4X, indicating a substantial improvement in financial performance due to software revenue from Volkswagen [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is deepening its cooperation with Volkswagen, expanding the scope to include procurement, supply chain, electric vehicle platforms, and electronic architecture, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [9]. Sales and New Models - The new models G6 and G9 have been well-received in the market, achieving sales leadership in their segments. The upcoming models are expected to further boost sales, with a focus on achieving positive cash flow by Q4 [9]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to turn profitable in Q4 and achieve a positive free cash flow for the year, supported by the new vehicle launches and improved operational efficiencies [9].

Macroeconomic Group - The June CPI in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the highest level since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking a new high since January [2] - The core CPI for June was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.0%, while the month-on-month core CPI was 0.2% [2] - The PPI for June increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since October 2024, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% [3] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Among 12 car manufacturers, 7 achieved over 40% of their annual sales targets, indicating significant market differentiation [7] - BYD faced a rare decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month sales, highlighting intense market competition [7] - The "Two New" policy and new product launches are expected to be crucial for the second half of the year [8] Consumer Group - The company "匠心家居" anticipates a net profit of 410-460 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.7%-61.2% [10] - The growth is attributed to the expansion in overseas markets and optimization of product structure, with net profit margins increasing from 11.6% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2024 [10] - The successful launch of the high-end brand MotoMotion in the US market has been a significant driver of performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase in Q1, driven by a substantial rise in vehicle deliveries, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with vehicle sales contributing 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 430 million yuan, showing a reduction compared to previous quarters [3]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, with vehicle gross margin at 10.5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [4]. - R&D expense ratio decreased to 12.5%, while sales, administrative, and general expense ratio fell to 12.3%, indicating effective cost control [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Mona M03 MAX and a new generation of P7, which are expected to enhance market presence and drive sales [5]. - AI technology integration is a key focus, with the production of self-developed Turing chips set to begin in Q2 2025, aiming to strengthen competitive advantage in the automotive sector [5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 94.7 billion, 167.6 billion, and 249.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 132%, 77%, and 49% respectively [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is revised down to 350 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.18, 4.02, and 6.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 412, 19, and 12 [6]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, supported by enhanced AI capabilities and new product launches [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 15.8 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.8%, meeting expectations [1] - The company achieved a vehicle sales volume of 94,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7% [1] - The gross margin improved to 10.5%, exceeding market expectations, driven by cost control and scale effects [1] Financial Performance - The net loss for the company was 660 million RMB, with a non-GAAP net loss of 430 million RMB, representing a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 50.1% and 69.4% respectively [1] - Research and sales expenses decreased by 1.3% and 14.5% quarter-on-quarter, slightly lowering their proportion of revenue [1] Future Guidance - The company expects Q2 revenue to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion RMB, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3% [1] - Projected delivery volume for Q2 is between 102,000 and 108,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5% to 14.9% [1] - The implied average selling price for Q2 is expected to rise to 158,000 RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5,000 RMB [1] Product Development - A major product cycle is anticipated in the second half of the year, with expectations for continued upward trends in average selling price and gross margin [1] - Key upcoming product launches include the MONA M03 MAX on May 28, the Xiaopeng G7 in June, and the next-generation P7 in Q3, with the Kunpeng super electric vehicle entering mass production in Q4 [1] - The company aims to launch humanoid robots for industrial and commercial applications by 2026, enhancing computational power with Turing chips [1] Investment Outlook - The company is viewed as a high-certainty investment within the new energy vehicle sector, with anticipated sales growth driven by new and updated models [1] - The potential for quarterly profitability is expected to improve due to the proliferation of intelligent driving and new vehicle sales [1] - The company's strategic positioning in artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robotics is likely to positively impact stock prices and valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, indicating strong operational performance despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Q1 2025 revenue reached 15.81 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 14.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 159.2% driven by increased delivery volumes [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 RMB in Q4 2024 to 152,900 RMB in Q1 2025 [2]. - Other business revenues amounted to 1.44 billion RMB, up 43.6% year-on-year, primarily due to increased technical service income from collaborations with Volkswagen Group [2]. Profitability Analysis - The automotive business gross profit was 1.51 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion RMB, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall gross margin improvement was attributed to increased sales volume leading to lower vehicle costs and economies of scale, although some gains were offset by inventory impairment and procurement losses [3]. Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5%, down 8.1 percentage points [4]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [4]. Market Presence - As of Q1 2025, the company operated 690 sales centers across 223 cities, maintaining its market coverage [5]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents totaling 45.28 billion RMB, indicating a strong liquidity position [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%, with projected revenue of approximately 17.5 billion to 18.7 billion RMB [5]. - A strong product cycle is expected to commence, with new models set to launch, which may further stimulate sales and enhance competitiveness [6][7]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by model cycles, organizational innovation, and advancements in AI technology [8]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 94.58 billion, 147.63 billion, and 170.08 billion RMB, with net profits of -660 million, 4.64 billion, and 7.54 billion RMB respectively [10].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant improvement in various financial metrics, including sales, revenue, and profit margins, leading to a positive market response and increased stock prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported revenue of 15.81 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The net loss narrowed to 660 million RMB from 1.37 billion RMB in the same period last year, indicating a substantial reduction in losses [1]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while automotive gross margin rose to 10.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Sales Growth - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 330.8%, showcasing the scale effect of increased production [1]. - The sales growth was driven by models such as the Xiaopeng MONAM03 and P7, with the former surpassing 100,000 deliveries in eight months and the latter reaching 50,000 units in five months [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has enhanced its cost control capabilities, leading to a continuous increase in automotive gross margin for seven consecutive quarters [2]. - Xiaopeng's service and other income reached 1.44 billion RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, primarily due to technology monetization from its collaboration with Volkswagen [3]. Future Outlook - The management is optimistic about future performance, projecting Q2 revenue between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 115.7% to 130.5%, and delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, a growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [4]. - Xiaopeng Motors aims to achieve over 100% sales growth in 2025 and expects to reach profitability in Q4, contributing to positive cash flow for the year [4]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of 45.28 billion RMB as of March 31, 2025, an increase of over 3.32 billion RMB from the end of 2024, supporting its ongoing investments in AI and smart driving technologies [3].