丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 3 月港股通名单即将迎来调整。恒生综合指数半年度的审议考察期截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日已经结束，2026 年 3 月港股通名单即将迎来新一轮调整，本次调整名单预计将于 2026 年 2 月 20 日收盘后公布，3 月 6 日收盘后正式实施，3 月 9 日为生效第一天。本文我们梳理了 可能纳入的标的名单，供投资者参考。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 [Table_Title] 港股策略：2026 年 3 月港股通成分股调整预测 投资策略丨点评报告 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 港股策略：2026 年 3 月港股通成分股调整预测 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 3 月港股通名单即将迎来调整。恒生综合指数半年度的审议考察期截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日已经结束，2026 年 3 月港股通名单即将迎来新一轮调整，本次调整名单 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.28 2025-12-01 南向资金流入电商零售规模创 10 月以来 新高 ——11 月第 4 周全球外资周观察 本报告导读： ① 北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流入，其中灵活型外资可能大幅净流入。②港 股：最近一周稳定型外资流出 122 亿港元，灵活型外资流出 75 亿港元，港股通 流入 415 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流出日本，10 月流入印度。④美欧 市场：9 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 投资要点： 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_Summary] 北 向资金 ：最近 一周北向 资金可 能 小幅 净流入。 最近一周 （2025/11/24-2025/11/28，下同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流入 37 亿元，前一周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21，下同）估算净流出 183 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型外资估算净流入 66 亿元，前一周 估算净流出 77 亿元。此外，我们汇总最近一周陆股通每日前十大活 跃个股，其中中际旭创（本周陆股通双向成交总金额为 205 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has led to the re-emergence of the "Taco trade" strategy, characterized by Trump's pattern of pressuring China with tariffs followed by signals of easing tensions, creating potential investment opportunities [1][4][11] Group 1: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The current trade friction is perceived to have a lesser impact compared to April, with the market expected to show greater resilience [2][3] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff effective after the APEC summit on November 1 indicates that the summit will be a critical point for negotiations [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that the time between Trump's threats and subsequent retreats is short, indicating limited windows for market declines [2][3] Group 2: Taco Trade Logic - The "Taco trade" logic remains valid despite increasing tensions, with the potential for negotiations at the upcoming APEC summit [4][6][11] - The market has gained experience and adaptability since the trade war began in 2018, leading to reduced volatility compared to previous instances [3][6] - The current market environment, characterized by "loose monetary and fiscal" policies, differs from April, with investors having more experience in handling such situations [6][7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Taco trade" has historically provided good buying opportunities following market declines triggered by tariff threats [6][8] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, is recommended for investment, especially if short-term market corrections occur [6][7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face short-term pressure but may present buying opportunities due to its limited exposure to US exports [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a potential venue for US-China negotiations, with expectations that the intensity and duration of the current trade conflict will be limited [5][9] - The market's response to trade tensions is becoming more rational, with diminishing marginal effects from tariff impacts as both sides continue to engage in economic cooperation [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the inflow and outflow trends of foreign capital in Hong Kong and A-shares during Q3, with a notable focus on technology assets [1][2] - In Hong Kong, foreign capital experienced a net outflow of approximately 841 million HKD in Q3, which is an improvement compared to Q2, with stable long-term foreign capital being the main contributor to the outflow [1] - The sectors attracting foreign capital in Hong Kong included software services (172 million HKD from stable foreign capital and 47 million HKD from flexible foreign capital) and hardware equipment (36 million HKD and 105 million HKD) [1] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant outflows included consumer discretionary retail (-472 million HKD), non-bank financials (-179 million HKD), and banks (-17 million HKD) [1] Group 2 - In A-shares, the Northbound capital saw an overall outflow of 158.2 billion CNY in Q3, with a net outflow of approximately 20.3 billion CNY when excluding Chinese custodial funds [2] - Long-term stable foreign capital accounted for a significant outflow of about 120.2 billion CNY, while short-term flexible foreign capital recorded an inflow of approximately 99.9 billion CNY [2] - Similar to Hong Kong, foreign capital in A-shares also increased its allocation to technology assets, particularly in new energy (up 3.7 percentage points for stable foreign capital and 1.1 percentage points for flexible foreign capital), electronics (up 2.3 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points), and machinery (up 0.8 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points) [2] - There was a reduction in allocation to banks (down 2.3 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points) and food and beverage sectors (down 1.5 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points) [2]

Core Insights - Hong Kong stock market has become a significant window for capturing China's growth dividends, with Hong Kong Stock Connect funds being a primary tool for investors to access this market without the need for currency exchange or separate accounts [1][2] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Hong Kong Stock Connect funds allow investors to conveniently allocate to Hong Kong stocks without needing QDII qualifications or foreign exchange quotas [2] - The Hang Seng Index has a higher proportion of consumer discretionary and software services sectors compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a strong growth potential in these areas, particularly in new consumption and technology sectors [3] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is relatively low compared to other major global markets, with the Hang Seng Index's current price-to-book ratio at 51.32%, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [6] Group 2: Market Trends - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of HKD 979 billion in 2025, a 21% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, with a focus on technology, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [9] - The overall performance of Hong Kong stocks has been strong this year, driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets in sectors like new consumption, technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10] Group 3: Fund Selection Criteria - Investors should assess the risk characteristics of different Hong Kong Stock Connect funds to ensure alignment with their risk tolerance, noting that funds focused on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals typically carry higher risk [14] - It is essential to choose fund managers with extensive experience in Hong Kong investments to better capture investment opportunities [15] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a systematic investment approach, planning regular contributions to take advantage of market fluctuations [17][18]

Core Insights - The report highlights a net inflow of 145.4 billion HKD from southbound funds during September 2025, primarily directed towards sectors such as consumer discretionary retail, software services, non-ferrous metals, biopharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [2][5][14] - The top five sectors receiving the most inflow were: consumer discretionary retail (77.3 billion HKD), software services (11.5 billion HKD), non-ferrous metals (9.3 billion HKD), biopharmaceuticals (8.6 billion HKD), and non-bank financials (8.5 billion HKD) [2][5][14] - Conversely, sectors experiencing the largest outflows included telecommunications services (-3.7 billion HKD), durable consumer goods (-3.7 billion HKD), hardware equipment (-2.8 billion HKD), daily consumer retail (-0.9 billion HKD), and semiconductors (-0.9 billion HKD) [2][5][14] Southbound Fund Inflows - From September 1 to 30, 2025, the net inflow of southbound funds totaled 145.4 billion HKD, with significant contributions from consumer discretionary retail, software services, non-ferrous metals, biopharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [2][5][14] - The report indicates that the total net inflow for the top five sectors was 115.2 billion HKD, showcasing a strong preference for these industries [2][5][14] Foreign Institutional Fund Flows - During the same period, foreign institutional funds saw a net outflow of 77.1 billion HKD, with notable inflows into hardware equipment, consumer services, media, biopharmaceuticals, and durable consumer goods, totaling 35.6 billion HKD [6][25] - The sectors with the highest inflows from foreign institutions included hardware equipment (16.7 billion HKD), consumer services (12.1 billion HKD), and media (2.8 billion HKD) [6][25] Comparative Analysis - The report also compares the inflow trends of southbound funds and foreign institutional funds, indicating a divergence in sector preferences, with southbound funds favoring consumer discretionary sectors while foreign institutions leaned towards hardware and automotive sectors [6][25][45] - The analysis of the changes in the proportion of holdings in the market capitalization reveals significant shifts in sectors such as media, consumer services, and hardware equipment, indicating evolving investment strategies [25][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that from September 22 to 25, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 14.493 billion HKD, primarily flowing into sectors such as consumer discretionary retail, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, hardware equipment, and software services, with the top five sectors accounting for a total net inflow of 12.234 billion HKD [2][6][34] - The five sectors with the highest net inflow were: consumer discretionary retail (6.964 billion HKD), non-ferrous metals (1.992 billion HKD), semiconductors (1.198 billion HKD), hardware equipment (1.092 billion HKD), and software services (0.989 billion HKD) [2][6][34] - Conversely, the sectors with the most significant outflows included pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.492 billion HKD), durable consumer goods (-0.255 billion HKD), consumer services (-0.225 billion HKD), automotive and parts (-0.216 billion HKD), and chemicals (-0.137 billion HKD) [2][6][34] Group 2 - During the same period, foreign intermediary funds experienced a net outflow of 19.015 billion HKD, with notable inflows into consumer services, non-bank financials, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and real estate II, totaling a net inflow of 6.005 billion HKD across the top five sectors [7][41] - The sectors with the highest net inflow from foreign intermediaries were: consumer services (2.836 billion HKD), non-bank financials (1.419 billion HKD), electrical equipment (0.837 billion HKD), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (0.683 billion HKD), and real estate II (0.231 billion HKD) [7][41] - The sectors that saw the most significant outflows included consumer discretionary retail (-8.9 billion HKD), medical equipment and services (-4.081 billion HKD), banking (-3.612 billion HKD), semiconductors (-1.356 billion HKD), and transportation (-1.283 billion HKD) [7][41]

Group 1 - The report indicates that from September 5 to 18, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 550.84 billion HKD, primarily flowing into sectors such as discretionary consumer retail, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, automotive and parts, and non-ferrous metals, with the top five sectors accounting for a total net inflow of 451.03 billion HKD [2][5][31] - The sectors with the highest net inflows were discretionary consumer retail (259.66 billion HKD), non-bank financials (91.69 billion HKD), pharmaceuticals (40.14 billion HKD), automotive and parts (37.55 billion HKD), and non-ferrous metals (21.99 billion HKD) [2][5][31] - Significant outflows were observed in durable consumer goods, hardware equipment, and telecommunications services, with net outflows of -11.89 billion HKD, -6.54 billion HKD, and -5.88 billion HKD respectively [2][5][31] Group 2 - The report highlights that from September 5 to 19, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market experienced an increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.59% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.09% [5][12] - The rise in the market is attributed to overseas factors, including a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which aligns with market expectations and enhances liquidity for the Hong Kong stock market [5][12] - Additionally, major internet stocks in Hong Kong signed strategic cooperation agreements with state-owned enterprises, contributing to the significant rise in the technology sector [5][12] Group 3 - From January 20 to September 18, 2025, southbound funds saw a cumulative net inflow of 9142.09 billion HKD, with the top five sectors being discretionary consumer retail (1913.68 billion HKD), banking (1435.97 billion HKD), non-bank financials (1059.94 billion HKD), pharmaceuticals (1056.75 billion HKD), and automotive and parts (779.65 billion HKD) [7][47] - The report notes that significant outflows occurred in telecommunications services (-206.41 billion HKD) and hardware equipment (-23.44 billion HKD) [7][47] - The report also indicates that the proportion of southbound funds in various sectors, such as semiconductors, discretionary consumer retail, and environmental protection, has shown notable changes [31][47]

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of capital has been observed in the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds achieving a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, marking a more than 100% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Data - As of September 11, southbound funds have recorded a cumulative net inflow of 10,655.49 billion HKD this year, significantly surpassing the total for the previous year [2][5]. - In September alone, southbound funds have seen net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with the first week of September contributing over 30 billion HKD, an increase of over 10 billion HKD compared to the previous week [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - The top three stocks attracting the most net inflow from southbound funds this year are Alibaba, Meituan, and China Construction Bank, with Alibaba alone receiving over 110 billion HKD [1][10]. - The sectors receiving the most attention from southbound funds include consumer discretionary retail, banking, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, with consumer discretionary retail leading at 1,782.85 billion HKD [6][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the revaluation of Chinese assets is ongoing, particularly with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1][13]. - Investment opportunities are expected to focus on sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on high-dividend stocks benefiting from declining risk-free rates [13].

Group 1 - Significant capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has been observed, with net inflows exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5] - The top three stocks attracting southbound capital this year are Alibaba, Meituan, and China Construction Bank, with Alibaba alone seeing net purchases exceeding 100 billion HKD [1][11] - The sectors receiving the most attention from southbound funds include consumer discretionary retail, banking, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, with consumer discretionary retail netting 178.29 billion HKD [7][8] Group 2 - Southbound funds have consistently recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days in September, with over 30 billion HKD net inflow in the first week of September alone [3][1] - The cumulative net purchase amount of southbound funds since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism has surpassed 4.7 trillion HKD, with the current year's net purchases accounting for 22% of this total [5][1] - Analysts suggest that the revaluation of Chinese assets is ongoing, particularly with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a bullish trend in Hong Kong stocks [1][13] Group 3 - The investment focus is expected to remain on sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, consumption, and manufacturing, which are considered core assets in China [14][13] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is perceived to be attractive, especially as global funds reassess Chinese assets, indicating a high long-term allocation value [14][13] - Companies benefiting from policy support and trends in AI development, as well as undervalued consumer firms expected to improve performance, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [14][13]