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连续3个坏消息,特朗普赶紧喊话中国,美财长:别不给美国面子
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 07:24
美国政坛风暴与三重危机 更为严重的是,美国劳工统计局、经济分析局、人口普查局等关键数据部门也暂停工作,导致重要的经济数据无法及时发布。例如,10月的非农就业报告未 能按期发布,令市场对美国就业形势的判断失去依据。标普、穆迪等评级机构纷纷发布警告,表示美国主权信用已跌至历史最低点,全球资本市场避险情绪 升温,黄金、白银价格不断攀升。 美国政坛近日面临严峻挑战,三重危机接连爆发,令民众和全球金融市场深感忧虑。根据2025年10月皮尤研究中心和路透社的最新民调,71%的美国民众对 国家的未来表示"极度担忧"。与此同时,标普全球数据显示,仅美国政府关门一周,经济损失已高达150亿美元。 美军高层动荡 美军高层的动荡尤为引人关注。美国国防部长赫格塞思近日召集了800名将领开会,气氛紧张,言辞激烈。据《纽约时报》和美联社的报道,赫格塞思在会 议中直言要求将领们"要么服从,要么离开"。不到两天时间,空军上将托马斯·比西尔通过社交平台宣布退役。随之而来的是特种作战司令部司令布莱恩·芬 顿递交辞职报告,并于3日正式交权。 这场人事风波并非单纯的职位更迭。特种作战司令部掌管全球敏感军事任务,其领导人的更替将直接影响美国军队的快速 ...
This New GMO ETF Lets You Bet On America's Industrial Comeback
Benzinga· 2025-10-06 22:49
Those investors who want to bet on America’s industrial resurgence have a new vehicle now: GMO’s Domestic Resilience ETF (NYSE:DRES). The actively managed fund focuses on American companies poised to gain from the reshoring of manufacturing, growth in energy and transportation, and advances in automation and defense.DRES stock is challenging resistance. See what is happening here.Unlike diversified U.S. equity indexes, DRES is a highly focused, quality-oriented approach with a focus on those businesses that ...
由于美国参议院拒绝批准预算,美国停摆才几天,国内就乱了,美国130万军人工资停发
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 15:06
我问你个问题,美国号称世界最强经济体,结果才停摆几天,军人工资一断,全家就得去排队领救济粮,这是不是太魔幻了。 130万军人,工资一下子没了。这可不是小数目。美国国防部自己公开过数据,现役军人约130万,预备役还有80多万。路透社报道过,只要预 算卡壳,军人工资就必须暂停,连国会拨款通过前都没辙。这次参议院否掉预算案,直接把军人推到风口浪尖。 画面很冲击。德州某些军人家属凌晨五点到食品救济中心排队领菜,拿不到就得饿着。你说这是超级大国该有的样子吗。美国军费一年9000多 亿美元,美联储的统计里显示,军费占GDP差不多3.5%,结果发不出工资,家庭现金流断得比谁都快。 我查了下,美国家庭储蓄率这几年一直不高。美国商务部经济分析局的数据,2023年储蓄率才3%多点,疫情那会儿还能冲到20%,结果现在几 乎见底。对比下,中国居民储蓄率常年在30%以上。怪不得工资一停,美国军人家属立刻捱不过去。 我一直在想,美国老百姓是真的缺钱,还是说缺的是安全感。美联储发布的《消费者财务状况调查》显示,2022年有四成家庭连400美元的紧急 开支都拿不出来。这不是段子,是官方调查写在纸上的。你说,这国家靠债务维持繁荣,一旦断流,日 ...
欧盟掀桌,27国对俄摊牌,是战是和,欧洲走到十字路口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 11:45
不明无人机在军事基地盘旋,海底光缆接连被割,网络攻击持续不断——欧洲再也忍不了那 只"看不见的手"。 2025年10月,欧洲27国领导人罕见地齐聚哥本哈根。会场外,反无人机雷达全天转动,北约部队荷枪实 弹巡逻;会场内,没人谈经济、不聊移民,所有矛头直指一个国家:俄罗斯。 这场面,十年未见。 丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森开口就定调:"我们正经历自二战结束以来最危险局势。德国总理默茨踏入 会场前,面对媒体镜头表态:我们没有在打仗,但也不再处于和平状态。" 两位领导人的话语,大概让我们可以感受一下这次欧盟紧急峰会的氛围了。 回到这场峰会的背景: 网络空间战火同时点燃。芬兰国防系统检测到持续境外网络攻击,目标精准、手法专业,留下的代码线 索均指向同一来源。东部小镇供电系统更无故宕机两小时,内部备忘录怀疑"遭遇国家级网络渗透"。 爱沙尼亚议会国防委员会主席里霍·特拉斯说:他们正在试探我们的底线和反应能力。 拉脱维亚港口通信信号连续两周遭精准干扰,只影响调度,不造成破坏,这种"试探性破坏"被安全专家 称为"战略摩擦"。 某种角度来说,这也是俄乌冲突持续至今,又一个"副产品":俄欧之间的各种彼此的战略试探。 过去一段时间,从 ...
Forbes Daily: Elon Musk Briefly Hits $500 Billion
Forbes· 2025-10-02 12:03
分组1 - Jane Goodall, a renowned zoologist and animal rights activist, passed away at the age of 91, known for her groundbreaking discoveries about chimpanzees and her influence on women in science [1] - Elon Musk has reached a new milestone, becoming the first person to be worth $500 billion, with projections suggesting he could become the world's first trillionaire by 2033 [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a rally in bitcoin and gold prices as investors seek safe havens, although such shutdowns are typically short-lived with limited economic impact [4] 分组2 - U.S. private sector employment fell more than expected in August, indicating a deceleration in the job market, with potential implications for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting [5] - Saronic, an autonomous speedboat startup, raised $600 million at a $4 billion valuation, aiming to revive the U.S. shipbuilding industry by mass-producing small, cheap, autonomous vessels [6] - Axsome Therapeutics, focused on brain disorders, reported a revenue of $495 million for the 12 months ending in June, a 70% increase from the previous year, although it remains unprofitable with a net loss of $247 million [12][13]
AeroVironment (NasdaqGS:AVAV) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-09-30 15:32
AeroVironment (NasdaqGS:AVAV) Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: AeroVironment (AV) - **Event Date**: September 30, 2025 - **Location**: Albuquerque, New Mexico - **Focus**: Defense technology sector, specifically in Space and Directed Energy, Cyber and Mission Solutions, Uncrewed Systems, and Precision Strike and Defensive Systems [1][2][3] Key Industry Insights - **Defense Industry Context**: The defense industry is experiencing a significant shift due to underinvestment over the past 15-20 years, leading to a consolidation into seven major primes. This has created a unique opportunity for companies like AV to capitalize on increased defense spending [6][7][8]. - **Global Threat Landscape**: The current geopolitical climate is marked by rising conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and China, necessitating advanced defense solutions [7][8]. - **Government Support**: There is bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress for increased defense investments, reflecting a shift in military leaders' mindsets towards more autonomous and integrated systems [8][9]. Company Strategy and Positioning - **Market Opportunity**: AV is positioned to benefit from a projected increase in defense spending, particularly in autonomous systems, which could triple or quadruple in the next three to five years [8][9]. - **Product Portfolio**: AV's product offerings include loitering munitions, uncrewed systems, and advanced software solutions like AV Halo, which integrates AI and autonomy into defense operations [10][18][39]. - **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: AV estimates a TAM of $70 billion to $75 billion, with significant growth potential in offensive systems ($10 billion+) and uncrewed systems ($15 billion+) [13][15]. Product Highlights - **Loitering Munitions**: Products like Switchblade and Red Dragon are expected to become billion-dollar franchises, with significant demand anticipated [18][19]. - **Uncrewed Systems**: The P550 and Jump 20 systems are critical to AV's strategy, with the latter focusing on cross-domain capabilities [41][46]. - **Directed Energy Solutions**: AV is developing laser communication systems and other directed energy products, which are expected to grow significantly [21][56]. Technological Innovations - **AV Halo Software**: A new software platform designed to integrate various defense systems, enhancing operational efficiency and effectiveness [24][25][39]. - **Modular and Open Architecture**: AV Halo is built to be modular and interoperable, allowing for rapid integration of new capabilities and third-party systems [26][27]. Financial Performance and Growth - **Revenue Projections**: For FY 2025, AV anticipates revenues exceeding $1 billion, with a strong first quarter performance of $285 million [42]. - **Scalability**: AV has the capacity to scale production significantly across various product lines, ensuring readiness to meet increasing demand [46][47]. Conclusion - **Strategic Positioning**: AV is well-positioned to leverage current market dynamics, with a strong focus on innovation, scalability, and meeting the evolving needs of defense customers. The company is confident in its ability to capture a larger share of the defense spending as it continues to develop and deliver advanced solutions [17][49][50].
国际观察|建“无人机墙” 北约与俄正面交锋?
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-29 00:30
新华社记者陈斌杰 黄河 赵冰 欧盟多国以及北约、乌克兰代表近日召开会议,同意在欧盟与乌克兰、俄罗斯的边界打造"无人机墙"。 北约同时称,将强化在波罗的海地区的军事存在。 俄罗斯方面强硬回应,称"欧洲从未如此接近第三次世界大战",俄方将"坚决回应"对俄侵略。 专家解读,俄欧围绕无人机事件的对峙持续升级,引发外界对北约欧洲国家与俄罗斯发生正面交锋、导 致俄乌冲突进一步外溢的担忧,加之美国特朗普政府立场近期出现反复,俄乌局势短期内难以从"冲 突"转向"调解"轨道。 新华社布鲁塞尔/莫斯科9月28日电 题:建"无人机墙" 北约与俄正面交锋? 筑"墙"补漏洞?欧洲作何考量 丹麦国防部27日称,26日夜间至27日丹麦多处国防设施附近发现无人机。北约发表声明说,为应对无人 机"入侵"丹麦,将强化在波罗的海地区军事存在。德国官员同日表示,德国部分地区无人机活动有所增 加,德国将采取防卫措施。 针对持续发酵的无人机事件,欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯26日与波兰、丹麦、保加利亚、立陶宛 等欧盟国家防长及乌克兰、北约代表召开视频会议,与会方同意在欧盟与乌克兰、俄罗斯边界打造"无 人机墙"。 这是2024年3月14日在比利时布鲁塞 ...
高盛对冲基金主管:不对抗,不追涨,理性看多美股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 03:53
"不与市场对抗,不盲目追高。"高盛全球市场部合伙人、对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在写给客户的一份内部纪要中强 调。 然而,他的乐观并非毫无保留。Pasquariello对小盘股的长期基本面持怀疑态度,并对欧洲市场表现出明显的谨慎。他强调, 当前的市场环境已经不再是"水涨船高"的普涨行情,而是一个极其考验选股能力的"选股者市场"。 Pasquariello在纪要中详细梳理了当前市场面临的18个核心主题,涵盖了从资金流向、美国就业市场到欧洲、日本、中等各个 地区股市表现。 1. 资金流与市场头寸 上周的资金流显然非常积极:对冲基金录得了三个月来最大规模的美国股票买入……多头基金也在买入,尤其是 科技股……衍生品市场更是火上浇油,无论是看涨期权的需求还是季度交割的向上拉动。 本周跟进来看,特许经纪商的活动已明显不那么狂热,交易界正关注季度末约200亿美元的预期供应量。鉴于第三 季度财报季临近,股票回购活动正在减弱,现在支撑市场的重任落在了美国家庭投资者身上。 2. 美国劳动力市场 审视就业数据,很难不担心某些趋势,尤其是在人工智能深入发展的情况下。虽然我并非不重视这些担忧,但回 顾历史会发现一 ...
欧洲学者: 关税战阴影下,美欧关系正面临前所未有挑战丨世界观
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-25 03:50
Group 1: US-EU Relations - The current geopolitical landscape presents unprecedented challenges for both the US and Europe, particularly due to the EU's heavy reliance on the US and the impact of Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - The transatlantic alliance is undergoing profound changes, with increasing tensions stemming from various issues including trade conflicts and defense spending demands from the US [2][3] - Trump's administration has pushed for European countries to increase defense budgets, with a controversial proposal to raise NATO spending to 5% of GDP, exacerbating divisions between the US and Europe [2][3] Group 2: EU's Economic Position - The EU, despite its military limitations, remains a significant global economic force, comprising 27 member states that collectively wield substantial international influence [4][5] - The EU's trade dependency on the US is highlighted by the fact that over 30% of its exports go to overseas markets, with the US being particularly crucial for large economies like Germany [3][4] - Rising tariffs imposed by the US threaten to undermine the EU's economic growth, as exports to the US are vital for many European countries [3][4] Group 3: EU's Internal Dynamics - The EU's complex institutional structure poses challenges for cohesive foreign policy and trade negotiations, as individual member states have significant autonomy and veto power [7][8] - Major EU countries like Germany and France often lead foreign policy initiatives, but internal divisions can complicate collective decision-making [8] - The EU's single market facilitates trade among member states, but the intricate governance system makes it difficult to achieve unified external agreements [7][8] Group 4: China-EU Trade Relations - The current trade relationship between China and Europe is characterized by a significant trade deficit for Europe, prompting calls for greater market access for European companies in China [9][10] - Despite challenges, there is a mutual desire for cooperation, with an emphasis on diversifying supply chains to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on any single market [9][10] - Upcoming dialogues, such as the 2025 China-EU summit, aim to deepen discussions on various issues, including medical equipment exports and technology collaboration [9][10]
小摩:美股回购潮或见顶,欧股迎来超配时刻
智通财经网· 2025-09-23 09:03
Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the significant increase in stock buybacks in the US, with a record nearly $960 billion announced over the past twelve months, which is 1.5 times the average of the past three years [1] - The increase in buybacks is driven by strong cash flow, with S&P 500 earnings forecasts being continuously revised upward, and free cash flow yield remaining above 3% [1][2] - The passage of the Comprehensive Budget Act by Trump allows for full expensing of capital expenditures and R&D, contributing an estimated $5 per share to S&P 500 free cash flow, further supporting buyback plans [1] Group 2 - Capital expenditures are rising, with equipment investment as a percentage of GDP increasing from 2.2% to 2.5%, and the combined capital expenditures and R&D of the seven largest US companies reaching $450 billion, indicating a potential strain on cash flow as companies balance buybacks and capital spending [2] - In Europe, the Stoxx 600's buyback yield has risen to 1.5%, but remains lower than the US's 3.2%, with earnings growth projected to improve significantly in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus, providing more room for buybacks and dividends [2][3] - The asset pricing is shifting towards Europe, with the combined equity yield of buybacks and dividends showing a positive spread over German ten-year bonds, while the US market has turned negative, indicating a relative attractiveness of European equities [3] Group 3 - In the US, technology and communication services account for 64% of buyback volume, but there are concerns about the sustainability of cash flow in these sectors as AI capital expenditures rise and profitability lags [4] - The potential shift in the main players of buybacks from US tech to European traditional sectors is highlighted, with a focus on sustainable cash flow as a key determinant for future buyback activity [4] - The overall message emphasizes the importance of cash flow in investment decisions, with a clear distinction between the dynamics in the US and Europe regarding profitability and capital expenditures [4]