Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights three new variables driving the strong rise in gold prices during the National Day holiday in 2025, including concerns over U.S. fiscal credit due to government shutdown, political changes in Japan and France affecting currency credibility, and significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors [2]. - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery for two months, primarily due to the end of high-temperature disruptions, leading to increased production activities and rising indices for procurement, inventory, and employment [3]. - The report indicates that while some sectors show improvement, such as industrial profits and PPI narrowing declines, overall corporate earnings remain unstable, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [4]. Group 2: Industry Research - OpenAI's launch of Sora2 and its Apps SDK is expected to reshape the AI application landscape, emphasizing that AI enhances traditional SaaS rather than replacing it, which may alleviate market pessimism [8]. - In the real estate sector, the top 100 property companies reported a 21% month-on-month increase in sales for September, with notable performers including China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [9]. - The report on non-ferrous metals indicates that profitability in the processing and smelting sector is expected to recover, with a focus on high-end product innovation and resource utilization, particularly in copper and lithium [10]. Group 3: Company Research - The report on Jiufeng Energy discusses its investment in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, highlighting the company's integrated industry chain and strong growth potential, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.732 billion, 1.979 billion, and 2.245 billion yuan respectively [11]. - China National Petroleum Corporation is noted for its commitment to long-term growth and reform, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 of 166.1 billion, 171.2 billion, and 175.7 billion yuan, maintaining a buy rating for both A and H shares [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing popularity of dim sum bonds among Chinese internet giants like Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba, driven by cost advantages and policy support, as they seek to expand their financing options in the offshore RMB market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance of dim sum bonds has transitioned from rapid expansion to a phase of stable growth, with a cumulative issuance of 771.4 billion RMB as of September 18 this year [1][4]. - The market is experiencing structural changes, with a diversification of issuers and an increase in the types of investment institutions involved, enhancing market depth and breadth [1][4]. Group 2: Major Issuers - Tencent issued three RMB bonds totaling 9 billion RMB on September 23, marking its first foray into the dim sum bond market [2]. - Baidu successfully issued 4.4 billion RMB in dim sum bonds on September 15, representing its second issuance this year [2]. - Alibaba previously issued 17 billion RMB in dim sum bonds in November last year and announced a 3.2 billion USD zero-coupon convertible bond issuance in September, with 80% of the funds allocated for cloud infrastructure and technology upgrades [2]. Group 3: Reasons for Preference - The primary reasons for the preference for dim sum bonds among internet companies include lower financing costs and supportive policies, as these companies enter a peak capital expenditure phase [3][5]. - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have announced measures to expand the "Bond Connect" program, enhancing the attractiveness of offshore RMB bonds for companies with significant overseas financing needs [3][7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of dim sum bonds is becoming more diversified, with significant contributions from various industries, while the existing stock remains concentrated in the banking and local government financing sectors [4][5]. - The demand for dim sum bonds is supported by low domestic interest rates and expanded cross-border investment channels, leading to increased interest from domestic institutions [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The dim sum bond market is expected to continue evolving, with potential for increased issuance from a wider range of issuers and improved structural diversity [7]. - The expansion of QDII quotas and the enhancement of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program are anticipated to boost demand for dim sum bonds, improving market liquidity [7][8].

在防风化债的大背景下，城投企业债务风险备受关注。票据作为一种常见的支付 和融资工具，其逾期信息是企业信用风险的重要信号，是企业信誉的重要表现。本文 从主体数量、信用等级、行政层级、地域分布及存续债券特征等维度对 2025 年 1－7 月发债城投企业票据持续逾期1情况进行梳理，为城投行业债务风险动态研判提供一 定的数据支撑与决策参考。 一、城投企业票据逾期概况 2025 年 1－7 月发债城投票据逾期情况梳理 联合资信 公用评级二部 |宋金玲 |邢小帆 2025 年 1－7 月，发债城投企业票据持续逾期主体数量与逾期频次同比双 增；AA 级、区县级平台仍是逾期主要群体，行政层级与信用等级的风险 分化效应进一步强化；风险主要集中于山东、云南、河南、贵州等省份； 存在票据持续逾期的发债城投企业短期集中偿债压力较大；需关注信用风 险传导带来的交叉违约风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 （一）票据持续逾期发债城投主体数量变化情况 2025 年 1－7 月，发生票据持续逾期的发债城投企业数量同比有所增长，一定程 度上体现出在企业流动性压力加大的情况下票据兑付优先级较低的特点。 2025 年 1－7 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with most credit bond yields rising and credit spreads showing mixed performance, particularly in the short-end segment [10][21] - It is suggested to focus on the 2-3 year credit bonds for yield opportunities, as their spreads are higher than the lowest points in 2024 and lower than the average spread since 2024, indicating potential for value [12][21] - The report highlights that the financial bonds have shown some recovery after significant adjustments, but the sentiment remains cautious with limited room for bullish positions [10][21] Group 2 - Key policies include the announcement of a loan from Shenzhen Metro Group to Vanke for debt repayment, totaling up to 2.064 billion yuan, with cumulative loans since 2025 reaching 25.941 billion yuan [3][14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% [15][20] - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to provide loans to state-owned enterprises and financing platforms to settle overdue accounts, with a total debt scale of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the secondary market for credit bonds is active, with a significant increase in trading volume observed [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the context of the upcoming policy changes and market conditions [10][21] - The report also mentions that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business to stabilize market prices, which may lead to a narrowing of spreads for lower-rated bonds [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of urban investment bonds (城投债) in August 2025 increased by 44.1 billion to 308 billion, but decreased by 37.8 billion year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance and Financing - The total issuance of urban investment bonds from January to August 2025 reached 2.35 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with net financing at -344.7 billion, down 100.5 billion year-on-year [2][9]. - As of the end of August, the number of newly issued urban investment bond entities reached 179, surpassing the total of 131 for the entire year of 2024 [1][6]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In August, 11 provinces had net financing from urban investment bonds, while 16 provinces had net repayments, and 4 provinces had no new issuance or repayments [4][6]. - The largest net financing province in August was Shaanxi, with 4.4 billion, followed by Hubei, Guangdong, Shandong, and Chongqing, each between 2 billion and 3 billion [4]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - In the secondary market, urban investment bond yields remained stable, with high-grade bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing showing upward trends in yields [7][8]. - The liquidity of medium to long-term high-rated urban investment bonds has significantly decreased, while the number of high-grade short-term bonds has increased [8]. Group 4: Offshore Market Performance - In the offshore market, 18 urban investment bonds were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%, with a total issuance scale of approximately 19.2 billion, down 34.4% year-on-year [8][9]. - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds totaled 7.376 billion, with an average coupon rate of 4.35%, while USD bonds totaled 1.593 billion with an average coupon rate of 5.34% [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2025, with credit bonds offering high coupon advantages in a low-interest environment [9]. - The ongoing debt reduction policies and the transformation of urban investment platforms are anticipated to alleviate short-term credit risks, suggesting potential investment opportunities in 2-3 year urban investment bonds [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the bond market correction, seize the credit coupon allocation opportunities, and the strategy of "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" has high certainty. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) credit bonds has significantly improved, while long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures and weak trading opportunities [1][4][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Urban Investment Bonds: There is Still a Large Space for Coupon Asset Mining - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.48 trillion yuan, with public urban investment bonds accounting for 53%. The scale of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 4.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 28.54% of the total [4][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, provinces like Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have high weighted average valuation yields. In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Yunnan have weighted average valuation yields above 2.9% [8][9]. - Based on the distribution of public urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3%, different regions are divided into four categories according to the proportion of high - valuation bonds. From the perspective of the coupon strategy, different regions are recommended for different durations [10][11][12]. 2. Financial Bonds: Focus on Bank Subordinated Bonds and Insurance Perpetual Bonds - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 15.18 trillion yuan. The scale of financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 1.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 11% of the total [4][18]. - Bank subordinated bonds and insurance perpetual bonds are recommended. High - valuation bonds in bank secondary capital bonds are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA/AA - and over - 5 - year AAA/AAA - varieties; in bank perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA and within - 5 - year AA - varieties; in insurance perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA varieties [18][19]. 3. Industrial Bonds: The Utilities and Transportation Sectors Can Try Longer Durations - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.99 trillion yuan. The scale of industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.36% of the total [4][22]. - Industries such as transportation, utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, real estate, and building decoration have a bond stock scale of over one trillion yuan. Real estate and non - bank finance industries have relatively high average valuation yields. In terms of liquidity, industries such as commerce and retail, transportation, coal, and utilities are more active [22]. - Real estate has the highest proportion and largest absolute scale of high - valuation bonds, mainly concentrated in within - 3 - year AA/AA(2) varieties. Long - term (over 7 years) high - valuation industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in AAA+/AAA/AAA - grades, with more stocks in industries such as comprehensive, utilities, and transportation [22]. 4. Credit Bond Selection Strategy: Focus on the Value of Short - to Medium - Term Coupons after the Correction - After the market correction, the yield of some credit bonds has fallen to a more attractive range. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) varieties has significantly improved, and the "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" strategy has high certainty [30]. - Long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures of "low trading volume, weak liquidity, and concentrated disturbing factors", and the market sentiment is cautious. Some credit bonds with a remaining term of 1 - 3 years/3 - 5 years and a valuation greater than 2.3% are selected for investors' reference [30][31].

杭州城投人工智能产业大模型 中央城市工作会议明确提出，"着力建设便捷高效的智慧城市""创新城市治理的理念、模式、手 段"。杭州城投作为杭州城市建设和民生服务的主力军，产业发展和能级提升的助推者，一方面运营管 理着水务、能源、公交、路网等领域的关键基础设施，汇聚了大量潜在的数据资源和应用场景；另一方 面肩负着融入全市大局、推动生产力实现革命性跃迁的关键任务和重要使命。 杭州城投产业大模型正式发布 钱江潮涌处，创新正当时。9月15日，由杭州市城市建设投资集团有限公司（以下简称"杭州城 投"）和智谱华章科技股份有限公司（以下简称"智谱"）联手打造的杭州城投人工智能产业大模型项目 （一期）发布建设成果，多个大模型及智能体全国首次亮相——全国首个公交大模型、全国首个路桥养 护多模态大模型、全国首个AutoGLM防汛智能体及全国首个自主学习清运调度智能体。 "此次与智谱合作，成功落地杭州城投产业大模型项目，不仅是我们认真落实国家'人工智能+'行动 和省、市'因地制宜发展新质生产力'战略部署的重要举措，更是积极贯彻中央城市工作会议精神，助力 城市内涵式发展的有效探索。"杭州城投党委书记、董事长李红良在发布会上指出，该项目深 ...

通讯员 俞璐 谭婧 记者 严佳炜 精准识别公交"下客"客流、内涝风险提前24小时动态预测、巡检车辆识别路面病害……这些曾经城市治 理中的难题如今有了"杭州解法"。 9月15日，由杭州市城市建设投资集团有限公司（以下简称"杭州城投"）和清华技术成果转化的智谱华 章科技股份有限公司（以下简称"智谱"）联手打造的杭州城投人工智能产业大模型项目（一期）发布建 设成果，多个大模型及智能体全国首次亮相，包括全国首个公交大模型、全国首个路桥养护多模态大模 型、全国首个AutoGLM防汛智能体、全国首个自主学习清运调度智能体。 "此次与智谱合作，成功落地杭州城投产业大模型项目，不仅是我们贯彻落实国家'人工智能+'行动和 省、市'因地制宜发展新质生产力'战略部署的重要举措，更是积极响应中央城市工作会议精神，助力城 市内涵式发展的有效探索。"杭州城投党委书记、董事长李红良在发布会上指出，该项目深度挖掘杭州 城投丰富的应用场景和优质的数据资源，聚焦城市交通、公共安全、设施运维、清运调度等核心业务， 借助大模型强大的数智能力，全面提升运营效率和服务水平。 释放数据资源价值 杭州城投有了"AI大脑" 作为杭州城市建设和民生服务的主力军 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions are exploring the use of special-purpose bonds to support government investment funds, with a total scale of 36 billion yuan this year, which helps improve the efficiency of special-purpose bond funds and promote the high - quality development of government investment funds [6][7]. - Beijing has repaid part of its special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule for the third time, which helps save interest expenses and smooth the pressure of debt maturity [6][11]. - This week, 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, and the issuance of "25 Nanjing Tiejian SCP002" was cancelled [6][13]. - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this week, with rising issuance interest rates and widening spreads. The issuance of new special - purpose bonds accelerated, and the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds exceeded 900 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, and the net financing scale turned negative [6][16]. - In the trading of local government bonds and urban investment bonds, the trading scale of local government bonds decreased, and the trading scale of urban investment bonds increased. Most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds increased [28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 News Review - **Special - purpose bonds support government investment funds**: Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions are exploring the use of special - purpose bonds for government investment funds. The current disclosed scale has reached 36 billion yuan. Policy space has opened up, and government investment funds are not on the "negative list" [6][7][8]. - **Beijing repays special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule**: On August 20, Beijing repaid 145 million yuan of special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule, which is the third time. It helps save interest expenses and smooth the pressure of debt maturity [11]. - **18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest**: This week, 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid the principal and interest of 20 bonds, with a total scale of 4.789 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous period [13]. - **Cancellation of the issuance of "25 Nanjing Tiejian SCP002"**: The planned issuance scale was 700 million yuan. As of August 22, 84 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 51.076 billion yuan [14][15]. 3.2 Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local government bonds**: This week, 110 local government bonds were issued, with a scale increase of 303.74% to 369.15 billion yuan, and the net financing turned positive. The issuance of new special - purpose bonds accelerated. As of August 22, new special - purpose bonds reached 3.076157 trillion yuan, completing 69.91% of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose by 18.20BP to 2.13%, and the spread widened by 2.69BP to 20.23BP [16]. - **Urban investment bonds**: 167 urban investment bonds were issued this week, with a scale decrease of 13.80% to 105.794 billion yuan, and the net financing turned negative. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.34%, rising by 16.16BP, and the spread was 80.64BP, widening by 11.61BP. Seven overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 5.246 billion yuan [20][21]. 3.3 Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Fund situation**: The central bank conducted 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with a net investment of 1.3652 trillion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly rose [28]. - **Credit rating adjustment**: On August 1, Dagong International upgraded the credit rating of Anhui Chuzhou Urban Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [28]. - **Credit events and regulatory penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [28]. - **Local government bonds**: The spot trading scale of local government bonds was 34.4287 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51%. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the maturity yields of other maturities increased [28]. - **Urban investment bonds**: The trading scale of urban investment bonds was 28.955 billion yuan, an increase of 19.38%. Most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 8.01BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, and the spread of 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed. There were 15 abnormal transactions of 14 bonds of 13 urban investment entities [29]. 3.4 List of Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises This week, 86 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., including changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, name changes, external guarantees, and changes in business scope [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July 2023, local government debt resolution policies have been intensively introduced, forming a "Document 35 + 6" policy system, which strictly regulates urban investment financing. Under the current refinancing environment that emphasizes both strict supervision and debt resolution, urban investment new - financing shows significant characteristics of "total volume control and structural differentiation", and the credit stratification and regional differentiation in the urban investment financing market will further intensify [2][4]. - The policy will continue to adhere to the principle of differentiated management, strictly curb new implicit debts, and support the transformation of qualified urban investment platforms. Regions with resource advantages and industrial support are expected to expand financing channels through industrial investment platforms, while regions with slow transformation and scarce resources will face severe constraints on platform financing capabilities [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urban Investment Financing Policy - Since July 2023, a "Document 35 + 6" policy system has been formed. Document 35 classifies regions and local state - owned enterprises and implements differentiated management of financing policies. The six supplementary documents further clarify measures such as controlling new government investment projects, expanding the scope of debt resolution measures, and specifying the exit path for high - risk key provinces. Overall, it comprehensively regulates urban investment financing [6]. - In March 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued Guidance Document No. 3, which added many review points for urban investment issuers, including clarifying the boundaries of urban investment entities, raising the threshold for bond issuance, and putting forward review requirements for the chaos in urban investment transformation, which is both a specific implementation of strict review and a guide for urban investment transformation [7]. - In the current urban investment financing review practice, bond issuance approval mainly relies on the list - based management, and the overall review scale is still strict. Even if the issuer is not on or has exited the "3899 list", it still needs to meet relevant regulations to issue new bonds [8]. Overview of New Urban Investment Financing - From October 2023 to July 2025, 534 urban investment entities in 28 provinces achieved new bond issuance. Economically developed provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are dominant. In terms of administrative levels, prefecture - level and district - level entities are the main ones. High - rating entities (AAA and AA+) are the leading ones in new financing. The number of entities achieving new financing in the inter - bank market and the exchange market is basically the same, but there are obvious structural differences among different administrative levels [13][14][16]. - Most entities only issued 1 new bond, and those that could issue more than 3 new bonds were concentrated in AAA - rated provincial and prefecture - level entities. In terms of bond types, the scale of inter - bank products in new urban investment bonds significantly leads that of exchange products, and medium - term notes and ultra - short - term financing bills have the largest scale. New urban investment bonds are mainly public - offering bonds, and the main use of raised funds is to repay interest - bearing debts [18][22]. Overview of Entities Issuing Bonds for the First Time First - time Issuance of Urban Investment Platforms - From October 2023, among the 534 urban investment entities that achieved new financing, 69 were first - time bond issuers. They are characterized by "relatively weak credit qualifications (mainly district - level and AA+), leading number of first - time issuers in the exchange, and private - offering products as the mainstay". Different issuance venues have obvious regional preferences [34]. - Guangdong has significantly more first - time urban investment new - issuance entities than other provinces. There are three main types of regional preferences: regions with zero hidden debts, good economic foundations, and relatively loose supervision; regions with good economic foundations but large existing urban investment debts and different supervision intensities in the inter - bank and exchange markets; regions with relatively large economic volumes but heavy debt burdens, mainly achieving new issuance in the exchange [41][42]. First - time Issuance of Quasi - Urban Investment Industrial Entities - The first - time issuance of quasi - urban investment industrial entities is characterized by "mainly prefecture - level and AA+ entities, leading number of first - time issuers in the exchange, and both public - offering and private - offering products thriving". Their credit levels are generally better than those of first - time urban investment entities, and their financing channels are more diverse [47]. - These entities can be classified into three types according to business types: industrial holding, public utilities, and transportation. Industrial holding platforms account for more than 70% of the samples, and their credit qualifications are highly differentiated, which can be further divided into five sub - types [57][70].