证券研究报告 2026年信用债年度策略： 信用利差扩大的观察之年 证券分析师：李勇 执业证书编号：S0600519040001 联系邮箱：liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：徐津晶 执业证书编号：S0600523110001 联系邮箱：xujj@dwzq.com.cn 2025年11月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1、信用债市场及细分板块复盘与展望 2、从企业微观视角看信用扩张信号及基本面修复进程 3、风险提示 1、 信用债市场及细分板块复盘与展望 ✓ 信用债市场展望 ✓ 城投债板块展望 3 研究成果 摘要 ➢ 供给侧：规模预计继续维持小幅增长，结构预计延续2025年的"产业债为主、城投债补充"，一方面主要源于"十五五"战略导向已明确"科技 自立自强"，加之科创债ETF配置需求抬升，因此科技创新债券在政策引领下扩容概率较高，为信用债市场体量的增长构成新动能；另一方面主 要源于城投平台在经历数轮债务置换、压降后，大量平台主体已转型为产业化主体或正在探索产业化转型路径，而城投退平台的推进意味着打破 "借新换旧"掣肘的可能性日益增加，并带来新增融资需求 ➢ 需求侧：预计总量上变化不大，但结 ...

整体来看，山东实施"三债统管"及"将隐性债务置换债券全部下沉市县"政策，短期对 缓解城投公司流动性压力具有积极作用；长期看，未来债务化解的核心仍在于提升城投公司自 身造血能力，加快实质性转型。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、山东省债务管控情况 山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工作，随着化债措施推进，部分区 域在债务风险化解方面取得一定进展。 债务化解取得一定成效，舆情管控力度仍需加强 ——山东省城投企业财务表现观察 联合资信 公用评级四部 |赵晓敏 张昶 山东省各地市积极对接金融机构、压降平台数量和盘活国有资产等，采取多元化化债措施， 2024 年以来，山东省城投公司投资和债务增速放缓，潍坊市受益于化债政策倾斜，城投公司 债务规模有所下降，债务结构有所优化；但山东省城投公司整体债务负担较重，短期债务占比 较高，融资结构有待进一步优化，受区域财力、自身经营及财务隐患、外部融资环境和化债支 持力度等因素影响，部分城投公司负面舆情仍未完全消除。 "一揽子化债"方案实施以来，山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工 作。2024 年，山东省共发行特殊再融资债券 1 ...

[Table_MAIn] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 相关研究 AI"信仰"Vs 城投"信仰" [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 近期市场围绕着是否应该坚持"AI 信仰"反复博弈，本文我们抛开硬核的技术领 域，从宏观角度谈谈"AI 信仰"问题，为了更方便地理解，我们选取了一个参照系 ——城投，因为从商业模式本质上，"AI 信仰"与"城投信仰"有着诸多相似之处： 第一，"要想富，先修路"的发展逻辑。城投是为大规模城市化建设的主体，城市 建设的第一步就是土地开发、修桥架路，这相当于 AI 巨头囤卡、铺 AI 服务器、建 数据中心，这就是大人工智能领域的基建投资。在城投分析框架中，先行指标是城 市规划面积、项目总投资额等，在 AI 分析框架中，先行指标是计划建设 AI 服务器 和数据中心的数量、大厂的资本开支金额等。在这一步，最先受益的都是"卖铲子" 的，城投逻辑中是钢筋水泥建材等，依据项目投资额能算业绩弹性，AI 逻辑中核 心是算力芯片、存储、CPO 等，也是根据资本开支算业绩弹性。正因如此，大家 对英伟达的担心，一方面是 AI 是否泡沫过大，行业资本开支无法继续 ...

传统城投依赖土地财政与高成本融资（平均利率6-8%），导致债务滚雪球式增长。而产投债以"低至3% 利率+5年以上周期"的组合拳，直击"短贷长投"痛点。例如，一个5亿元的产投债项目，5年可节省利息 支出超7500万元，相当于为地方财政减负15%。 2. 政策定向松绑，投资方向精准引导 国家明确产投债资金须用于"产业升级、绿色经济、三农振兴"三大领域，与县区级产投平台的金控、城 服、农投三大战略高度契合。政策不仅提供资金，更通过白名单制度为项目背书，降低市场疑虑。 3. 风险共担机制，激活社会资本参与 产投债可与产业基金、PPP模式联动，形成"政策资金引投+社会资本跟投"的杠杆效应。例如，政府用5 亿产投债撬动20亿总投资，重点支持新能源产业园、高标准农田等长周期项目。 二、转型路径：产投债如何赋能三大战略 在国家"十四五"规划明确提出"推动城投平台市场化转型"的背景下，县区级城投平台正迎来历史性拐 点。2023年国务院《关于完善地方政府投融资体制的指导意见》重磅出台，明确支持县区级城投发行5- 10亿元产投债，资金使用周期5年以上、利率低于3%，定向赋能产业孵化、新能源基建与乡村振兴。这 一政策不仅为城投平台注 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－广西篇 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 孙婧 陈帅 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 广西壮族自治区沿海沿江沿边，是中国西南地区最便捷的出海通道，是连接粤港澳与西部地 区的重要通道、"一带一路"有机衔接的重要门户、面向东盟开放合作的"桥头堡"、西部陆 海新通道核心枢纽，资源禀赋优势明显。2024 年，广西经济保持增长，进出口贸易是经济增 长主要驱动力，但 GDP 增速低于全国平均水平；地区生产总值、人均 GDP 及一般公共预算 收入在全国排名靠后，城镇化率较低。广西债务负担偏重，稳定增长的上级补助对综合财力 提供了有力支撑。 广西各地级市经济实力分化明显，南宁市经济发展水平、人口规模、城镇化率均处于领先地 位，柳州市、桂林市和玉林市紧随其后；2024 年，柳州市经济增长承压，GDP 增速落后于其 他地级市。产业结构方面，除百色市、北海市、崇左市和防城港市产业结构以第二产业为主 外，其他地级市产业结构均以第三产业为主，且第一产业普遍占比偏高。受房地产市场持续 低迷影响，大部分地市政府性基金收入出现不同程 ...

债务规模整体压降，融资结构有所改善，短期流 动性仍承压 ——贵州省发债城投企业财务表现观察 联合资信 公用评级四部 刘嫱 摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 受益于化债政策倾斜重点省份，特殊再融资债券和特殊新增专项债额度释放，加上融资平台债 务展期、降息、置换等化债措施有序推进，贵州省整体债务风险得到进一步缓释，发债城投企 业债务规模持续下降，融资结构有所改善，但短期偿债及流动性仍面临较大压力，净融资额区 域分化明显，部分区域发债城投企业投资端负增长、新增融资受限叠加回款压力，内生偿债能 力及外部流动性均未得到实质改善。 整体看，贵州省发债城投企业短期化债仍靠化债政策"组合拳"以降低债务风险，且区域分化 明显，尾部区域财务基本面改善难度较大；长期发展则需城投企业"在化债中发展，在发展中 化债"通过优化投资结构、扩大内需等方式推动经济高质量发展，为化债创造条件。 注：政府债务率=政府债务余额/综合财力*100%；广义政府债务率=（政府债务余额+城投债务余额）/综合财 力*100%；城投债务余额为联合资信城投企业分类口径中发债城投企业债务之和（已剔除子公司数据）；综合 财力=一般公共预算收入+ ...

翻开贵州省政府公布的名录，这56家公司覆盖省、市、县三级，业务范围涉及城市基建、土地整理、交 通建设等多个领域。它们共同特点是：资产负债率普遍偏高，平均达到65%以上；政府补贴依赖度强， 部分企业营业收入的30%以上来自财政拨款。 贵州这次动作绝非偶然。根据财政部最新通报，全国已有超过2000家融资平台公司完成市场化转型，而 贵州这次56家"类平台"公司的调整，正是这场全国性整顿的组成部分。所谓"类平台"，是指那些虽未明 确标注为政府融资平台，但实际承担政府融资职能的企业。 地方政府隐性债务这个幽灵，已经游荡在中国经济上空多年。这些"类平台"公司通过银行贷款、发行债 券、信托融资等方式筹集资金，表面上是企业行为，实质却是政府信用背书。债务雪球越滚越大，最终 可能演变成系统性风险。 贵州56家"类平台"公司集体剥离政府融资功能，这则消息像一颗深水炸弹，在地方投融资圈激起巨大 波澜。这些曾经在政府项目中扮演关键角色的公司，为何突然被要求"断奶"？背后究竟隐藏着怎样的政 策逻辑和现实考量，湖北友梦政融投资服务有限公司。 贵州的案例特别引人注目。数据显示，贵州省政府债务率长期位居全国前列，部分地市甚至超过300% 的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to September, the number of consecutive overdue occurrences of bonds - issuing urban investment entities' bills increased significantly year - on - year, while the number of entities with consecutive bill overdue decreased year - on - year. High - frequency overdue enterprises became the main risk source. AA - rated and district - county - level platforms remained the main overdue groups, and the risk differentiation effect of administrative levels and credit ratings was further strengthened. Risks were mainly concentrated in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other provinces. Entities with consecutive bill overdue faced relatively large short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure, and attention should be paid to the cross - variety risk spread caused by credit risk transmission [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Entities' Bill Overdue - **Change in the number of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, bonds - issuing urban investment entities were included in the list of consecutive bill overdue 508 times, a year - on - year increase of 38.04%, involving 65 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 4.41%. The monthly number of urban investment entities included in the list was between 54 - 58, and the monthly number of newly - added entities was 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2 respectively [5]. - **Credit rating of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, entities with consecutive bill overdue were mainly AA - rated, accounting for 63.08%, a year - on - year increase of 1.31 percentage points, with 41 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 1. AA + - rated entities ranked second, accounting for 23.08%, with 15 entities, a year - on - year decrease of 2 [8]. - **Administrative level of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, district - county - level platforms accounted for the highest proportion among entities with consecutive bill overdue, and there were no provincial - level platforms. District - county - level platforms numbered 39 (60.00%, a year - on - year increase of 4.12 percentage points), municipal - level platforms numbered 21 (32.31%), and there was 1 provincial - level park platform, 2 national - level development zone platforms, 1 national - level high - tech zone platform, and 1 national - level new area platform [11]. - **Geographical distribution of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: From January to September 2025, the geographical distribution of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue was highly concentrated, mainly in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, and Guizhou. There were 11 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, 2 less than the same period last year. Shandong had the largest number of such entities, reaching 26, accounting for 40.00%. Yunnan had 12, and both Henan and Guizhou had 8. In terms of the proportion of the number of entities with consecutive bill overdue to the total number of bonds - issuing urban investment entities in each province, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Shandong ranked in the top three [13]. - **Existing bonds of bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue**: As of October 27, 2025, the total balance of existing bonds of 65 bonds - issuing urban investment entities with consecutive bill overdue from January to September 2025 was 144.82 billion yuan. Among them, corporate (enterprise) bonds accounted for 54.25% (78.558 billion yuan), medium - term notes accounted for 18.29% (26.488 billion yuan), private placement financing instruments accounted for 15.61% (22.6 billion yuan), and short - term and ultra - short - term financing bonds accounted for 9.63% (13.944 billion yuan). 39.26% (56.861 billion yuan) of the bonds would mature within 1 year, and 26.31% (38.104 billion yuan) would mature within 1 - 3 years. These entities faced relatively large short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. Some entities had non - standard financing defaults, and attention should be paid to the cross - variety risk spread [15][21].

违约细节：从利息逾期到本金难偿 作者 | 城投君 2025年11月12日，多名投资者反映，山东省菏泽市成武县两家城投公司——成武郜城城市建设投资有限公司（下称"成武郜城"）与成武文亭城市建设投 资有限公司（下称"成武文亭"）发行的定向融资产品（下称"定融产品"）出现实质性违约。本应于9月20日支付的利息未能如期到账，且到期本金亦未兑 付。投资者多次联系融资方，仅得到"等待化债资金"的回复，问题迟迟未获解决。 工商信息显示，成武郜城成立于2019年10月，注册资本1亿元，实控人为成武县财政局，但2024年企业参保人数为0，年报亦未公示。成武文亭虽成立于 2012年，但在2016-2019年期间参保人数同样为0，2024年虽显示有19名员工，但其业务范围与资金规模严重不匹配。 | 年份 | 人数 | 来源 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | 19 | 工商年报-参保人数 | | 2023 | 20 | 工商年报-参保人数 | | 2022 | 26 | 工商年报-参保人数 | | 2021 | 23 | 工商年报-参保人数 | | 2020 | . | 工商年报 | | 2019 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The number of overdue bills of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased rapidly and then fluctuated after the introduction of the "package debt - resolution plan", and has been generally stable since November 2024. District - county - level entities among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion and are concentrated in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. The regions with concentrated overdue bills have weak regional fiscal self - sufficiency, heavy local government debt burdens, and large broad - based debt repayment pressures. In addition, restrictions on new bond financing and changes in financial indicators of urban investment enterprises in recent years are also reasons for bill overdue. The median net financing of urban investment enterprises that first had bill overdue from January to August 2025 increased in the year before the bill overdue, possibly related to the "targeted support" of local governments and financial institutions under the "package debt - resolution plan". Bill overdue has a negative impact on enterprise credit, financing ability, and the regional financial market. Urban investment enterprises should pay attention to policy impacts, improve liquidity management, and enhance their self - hematopoietic ability [2]. - Bills are an early warning signal of enterprise credit risk, reflecting the lack of enterprise liquidity to some extent and being a leading indicator of enterprise bond default risk. This report tracks, observes, and analyzes the performance, causes, and impacts of bill overdue of urban investment enterprises under the background of the "package debt - resolution plan" and proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises - From November 2021 to August 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises on the list of continuous bill overdue increased fluctuantly. The credit quality of these enterprises is generally average, with AA - rated enterprises accounting for nearly 70%. District - county - level entities among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion. There are 19 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, with more enterprises in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Since 2025, the number of such enterprises has generally stabilized, possibly related to the reduced debt - resolution pressure of urban investment enterprises under the "package debt - resolution plan" [5]. - The Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange started to release the "List of Continuous Overdue Commercial Bills" monthly since August 2021. The statistical criteria for the continuous overdue list are: since August 2021, acceptors who have had more than 3 payment overdue within 6 months from the cut - off date of the list disclosure, and have an overdue balance at the end of the month or have payment overdue in the current month [5]. - From November 2021 to August 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue as commercial bill acceptors showed a fluctuating growth trend. From August to October 2023, the number of such enterprises increased rapidly, possibly related to restricted new financing and increased short - term debt repayment pressure. From November 2023 to the end of 2024, the number increased slightly with fluctuations. Since 2025, the number has generally stabilized. During this period, bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were included in the bill continuous overdue list 1362 times, involving 155 enterprises [7][8]. - In terms of credit rating, bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly AA - rated, accounting for 67.74% (105 enterprises), followed by AA + - rated enterprises, accounting for 22.58% [12]. - In terms of administrative level, district - county - level platforms among bill - overdue urban investment enterprises account for a high proportion, and there are no provincial - level platforms. There are 91 district - county - level platforms (accounting for 58.71%), 44 municipal - level platforms (accounting for 28.39%), 6 provincial - level park platforms, 6 national - level development zone platforms, 3 national - level high - tech zone platforms, and 5 national - level new area platforms [14]. - In terms of geographical distribution, there are 19 provinces involved in bill overdue risks, including Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Shandong has the largest number of bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, reaching 56 (accounting for 36.13%), followed by Henan with 18 and Guizhou with 15 [18]. 3.2 Analysis of the Causes of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises 3.2.1 External Factors - **Regional Fiscal and Debt Burden**: In the regions where bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are concentrated, except for Qingdao and Zibo, the fiscal self - sufficiency of other regions is lower than the national average. Most of the cities with a high risk of bill overdue of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in 2024 had a growth rate of general public budget revenue lower than the national average (0.9%), and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate of most cities was lower than the national average (71.22%). Affected by the sluggish land market in 2024, the government fund revenue in some regions with a high incidence of bill overdue showed a significant downward trend, further increasing the debt repayment pressure of urban investment enterprises in these regions [23][24]. - In 2024, due to factors such as the government's replacement of stock implicit debt under the "package debt - resolution plan", the local government debt balance of cities with a high risk of bill overdue of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased year - on - year. These cities have relatively heavy local government debt burdens and large broad - based debt repayment pressures. The government debt ratio of these cities is higher than 150%, and the broad - based debt ratio (including the interest - bearing debt of local urban investment enterprises) of most cities is higher than 400%. The non - standard financing ratio of some cities decreased in 2024, which may be related to the debt replacement policy [27]. - **Other Possible Factors**: In recent years, regulatory authorities and financial institutions have tightened new financing for urban investment enterprises, increasing their financing difficulty. Since bond repayment has strong rigidity, for urban investment enterprises, the risk of bond default is much greater than that of bill overdue. Coupled with the lack of professional debt coordination ability in some regions and the lack of attention to bill repayment management, the repayment priority of bills is relatively low, leading to bill overdue of some bond - issuing urban investment enterprises [30]. 3.2.2 Enterprise Self - factors - **Payable Amount Scale**: The relative scale of accounts payable and notes payable of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is generally higher than the industry median level, and the relative scale of notes payable fluctuates greatly [32][33]. - **Debt Structure**: The proportion of short - term debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises has increased rapidly, and the proportion of short - term debt in the year before the first bill overdue is significantly higher than the industry median level [34]. - **Asset Structure**: The median increase in the proportion of funds occupied by business operations of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is higher than the industry median increase [39]. - **Short - term Debt Repayment Ability and Fund Raising**: The coverage of cash - like assets to short - term debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is significantly lower than the industry median level. From 2022 to 2024, the median net financing of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises decreased rapidly in the year before the bill overdue, significantly lower than the industry median level. In 2025, the median net financing of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises in the year before the bill overdue increased against the trend, possibly related to the "targeted support" of local governments and financial institutions [40][41]. - **Financing Channels and Costs**: From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of non - standard financing in the total debt of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises is generally higher than the industry median level and fluctuates greatly. The financing cost of bill - overdue urban investment enterprises in the three years before the bill overdue is generally higher than the industry median level [42][43]. 3.3 Impact of Bill Overdue of Urban Investment Enterprises and Countermeasure Suggestions - **Impact**: Bill overdue has a negative impact on enterprise credit, financing ability, and the regional financial market. It will damage the credit of urban investment enterprises, lead to financing difficulties and increased capital costs, and may also trigger legal disputes. It may also cause market concerns about the credit risk of urban investment enterprises in the region, affecting market confidence and leading to tight liquidity in the regional financial market [46]. - **Countermeasure Suggestions**: Urban investment enterprises need to shift from "passively relying on policies" to "actively enhancing resilience". They should strengthen asset liquidity management and improve short - term debt repayment ability through asset revitalization, accounts receivable collection, and optimized fund scheduling. They should also gradually reduce their dependence on government resources, transform from "platform - type" to "operation - type", and cultivate sustainable operating cash flow through refined operations to improve profitability and self - debt - repayment ability [47][48]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: Although the proportion of notes payable in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment enterprises is low, bill overdue can be an early warning signal, indicating that the enterprise has certain liquidity tension, which may lead to other credit risk events. Since July 2023, after the introduction of the "package debt - resolution plan", the number of bill - overdue bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased rapidly and then fluctuated. Since November 2024, the number has generally stabilized. District - county - level platforms among overdue enterprises account for a high proportion, and are concentrated in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou. Bill overdue not only damages the enterprise's own credit and financing ability but may also cause a chain reaction in the regional financial market [49]. - **Outlook**: In 2026, the short - term risk mitigation expectation of urban investment enterprises is clear, but the debt repayment ability of most urban investment enterprises has not been substantially improved, and the operating cash flow has insufficient support for bill repayment. Some urban investment enterprises still have relatively heavy debt burdens, a high proportion of short - term debt, weak financing ability, and high financing costs. Therefore, the phenomenon of continuous bill overdue will still exist in some regions. Urban investment enterprises should pay attention to bill, debt, and public opinion management, strengthen credit management and maintenance, and actively transform into industries that enhance their self - hematopoietic ability [50].