（原标题：硅宝科技(300019.SZ)：天马-1000无人运输机暂未用到公司产品） 格隆汇1月15日丨硅宝科技(300019.SZ)在互动平台表示，天马-1000无人运输机暂未用到公司产品。有机 硅材料具有卓越的耐高低温性能、耐老化性能等优异性能，在航空航天等领域应用广泛。公司应用在航 空航天领域的产品已实现少量销售，但对公司业绩影响不明显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current cycle industry is at the bottom of the economic cycle, showing signs of recovery driven by various factors such as overseas interest rate cuts, AI infrastructure, emerging market construction, and domestic fiscal stimulus [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycle and Market Dynamics - The supply side is constrained due to low long-term returns and environmental restrictions, while the demand side is expected to improve [1][5]. - The supply-demand balance for cyclical products is anticipated to remain tight, with a price uptrend approaching, driven by a rebound in corporate profits [1][5]. - The cyclical stock market can be divided into three phases: price expectation, price surge, and performance realization [1][5][6]. Group 2: AI and Material Demand - The development of AI is expected to significantly increase the demand for upstream raw materials, particularly copper and aluminum [6]. - AI power system construction is projected to contribute a 0.7% compound annual growth rate to copper demand from 2026 to 2030, while supply growth for copper is expected to be only 1% by 2026 [6]. Group 3: High-Growth Industries - Several high-growth upstream sectors are highlighted, including lithium carbonate driven by unexpected energy storage demand, and organic silicon boosted by new AI applications [2][6]. - Industries such as cement and construction machinery are opening new growth curves through overseas expansion, showcasing strong profitability in international markets [2][6].

基础化工 分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 化工品价格跌势继续放缓，关注农药、涤 纶长丝和煤化工板块 ——基础化工行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 14 日 投资要点： 2025 年 12 月份中信基础化工行业指数上涨 4.26%，在 30 个中信一 级行业中排名第 11 位。子行业中，钾肥、合成树脂和碳纤维行业表现 居前。主要产品中，12 月份化工品价格下跌态势继续放缓，液氯、氩 气、氢氧化锂、碳酸锂和锰酸锂等表现较好。2026 年 1 月份的投资策 略，建议关注农药、涤纶长丝和煤化工行业。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅下跌、行业竞争加剧、下游需求下滑 基础化工相对沪深 300 指数表现 -6% 2% 10% 19% 27% 35% 43% 51% 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 2026.01 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券、聚源数据 相关报告 《基础化工行业月报：化工品价格跌势放 缓，硫磺、磷肥等表现较好》 2025-12-11 《基础化工行业年度策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The anti-involution policy is expected to reassess the Chinese chemical industry, leading to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The Chinese chemical industry has abundant net operating cash flow, and the slowdown in capacity expansion will significantly enhance potential dividend yields, shifting the industry from a capital consumption model to a profit return model [1] - Supply-side optimization is anticipated to drive a rebound in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks exhibiting high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1] - Key areas of focus include petrochemicals, coal chemicals, organic silicon, phosphate chemicals, and glyphosate [1] Group 2: Opportunities and Trends - The industry presents four major opportunities: low-cost expansion, improvement in prosperity, breakthroughs in new materials, and high-dividend stocks [1] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment due to increased power demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engine demand, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028, representing a 32% gap ratio [1] Group 3: Investment Index - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks the sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies focused on the manufacturing of fertilizers, pesticides, and plastic products to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies in the chemical industry [1] - This index features cyclical and growth characteristics, concentrating on investment opportunities within the chemical sub-sectors [1]

近期行业变化和纯碱外需影响的分析 20260112 摘要 化工板块近期受春季躁动和长线资金配置影响上涨，但部分龙头股出现 回调，属正常波动。中长期看，经济向上趋势明确，短期波动或存。 有机硅市场中长期前景看好，外资关停生产线叠加全球消费需求增长， 价格有望上涨。历史数据显示，有机硅在顺周期中弹性可观。 涤纶长丝及 PTA 目前处于消费淡季，原材料 PS 价格上涨，PTA 价差收 窄。预计 2026-2027 年无新增产能投放，全球经济恢复有望带动行业 景气上行。 纯碱价格近期回调，受煤炭成本下降和新增产能影响。预计上半年小幅 波动，下半年或上行，行业亏损可能促进行业自律或受节能降碳政策影 响。 制冷剂一季度预计继续上行，长期来看空间巨大，海外三代和四代制冷 剂售价高昂，看好制冷剂的长期价格趋势。 钾肥近期小幅上涨，受冬储旺季和春耕需求增加影响，海外供应无增量。 预计 2026-2027 年供求紧平衡，价格稳中有升。 纯碱作为全球定价产品，间接出口需求占比高，受国际市场影响大。未 来增量需求来自海外基建和光伏产业，预计 2026 年下半年开始出现上 行趋势。 Q&A 2026 年和 2027 年化工行业的投资机 ...

兴发集团（600141.SH）1月12日在投资者互动平台表示，谢谢您对公司的关注！2025年公司有机硅材 料业务进展显著，例如气凝胶薄毡产能提升近50%，并成功供应宁德时代、比亚迪等头部客户，销量同 比激增15倍；高纯度D4已实现向全球光纤光缆行业头部企业送样等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：能否介绍一下公司在有机硅新材料业务板块的最新进 展？ ...

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司是氟硅行业龙头，2024 年三代制冷剂配额正式冻结，新商业模式下，行业有望迎来长周期 上行；有机硅资本开支大幅放缓，需求维持高增长，行业有望从底部迎来反转；同时，含氟聚 合物板块有望迎来结构性机会。 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨东岳集团（00189.HK） [Table_Title] 氟硅材料龙头，有望多点开花 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 东岳集团（00189.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 氟硅材料龙头，有望多点开花 [Table_Summary2] 公司介绍：打造全球一流氟硅材料产业链 [Table_Summary2] 公司介绍：打造全球一流氟硅材料产 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势—— 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 11 日 陕西省或对高耗能行业实施差别化 ...

Key Points - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery, with supply growth slowing and a replenishment cycle beginning. The government continues to strengthen policy guidance, and a new round of supply-side reforms is on the horizon. Focus on sectors such as refrigerants, potash fertilizers, organic silicon, and phosphorus chemicals, which are on an upward trend [5][10][20]. - Emerging demand growth opportunities in new materials are noteworthy. For lithium battery materials, the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization is beneficial for related materials. In photolithography, strong downstream semiconductor demand is driving the need for photolithography materials, with accelerated domestic substitution [5][10][82]. - The refrigerant sector is seeing a supply contraction alongside demand release, leading to a sustained uptrend in the third-generation refrigerants. Key companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [5][41]. - The potash fertilizer market is recovering due to production cuts by major players, with global demand expected to grow. Key companies include Yara International and Salt Lake Co. [5][47][55]. - The organic silicon industry has passed its peak expansion phase, with profitability expected to recover as the industry moves towards a supply-demand balance. Companies to focus on include Dongyue Silicon Material, Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [5][56]. - The phosphorus chemical sector remains strong, with high prices supported by raw material costs and growing demand from the energy storage market. Companies to watch include Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng Co., and Batian Co. [5][66][75]. - The industrial gas market is growing, with domestic production increasing. Key players include Qiaoyuan Co. [5][76]. - The solid-state battery industry is on the verge of industrialization, with significant advancements expected in the coming years. Companies to focus on include Dangsheng Technology [5][82]. - The photolithography market is expanding due to strong demand from the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies like Tongcheng New Materials and Jingrui Electric Materials leading the way [5][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]