Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 钨价上涨驱动刀具格局改善，机床存在结构性机会 通用设备行业 2026 年度策略报告 中游制造/机械 机床工具行业需求与制造业景气度高度相关，2025 年，总体需求偏弱，股价走 势跑输机械行业指数；但微观上看，行业上市公司业绩持续改善，其中刀具公 司率先出现利润拐点。2026 年，钨价上涨有望驱动刀具行业格局优化，且核心 公司业绩已经出现拐点，基本面持续向好；机床仍存在新兴行业带来的结构性 机会。建议重点关注：（1）刀具：欧科亿、华锐精密；（2）机床：海天精工、 纽威数控。 ❑ 2025 年回顾：行业需求偏弱，股价跑输机械行业指数。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 476 | 9.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4852.7 | 4.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4191.8 | 4.3 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.5 29.6 40.4 相对表现 3.3 10.9 24.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" for the machine tool industry [6]. Core Insights - The tungsten price has been rapidly increasing this year, with black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten carbide powder prices rising by 157%, 158%, and 180% respectively compared to the beginning of the year. This price increase is supported by tightening supply and strong demand from emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, military, and PCB drilling [1]. - Domestic tool manufacturers have been raising prices, with a series of price hikes occurring in May, September, and November. Recent price adjustments by foreign brands like Sandvik, Kennametal, Kyocera, and Sumitomo are expected to enhance the price space for domestic products [2]. - Smaller tool manufacturers are facing financial pressures leading to production cuts, while leading companies are likely to gain market share due to their stronger financial positions and inventory advantages [3]. - The report highlights that leading companies such as Ouke Yi and Huarui Precision have shown significant revenue and profit growth, with Ouke Yi's revenue and net profit increasing by 33.0% and 69.3% respectively, and Huarui Precision's revenue and net profit increasing by 44.5% and 915.6% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections - **Tungsten Price Trends**: The report notes a significant increase in tungsten prices due to supply constraints and strong demand from various sectors, indicating a potential for sustained high prices in the coming years [1]. - **Domestic Price Adjustments**: Domestic tool manufacturers are adjusting prices in response to foreign brand price hikes, which may enhance the competitiveness of domestic products [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The financial strain on smaller manufacturers may lead to a consolidation of market demand towards leading brands, which are better positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions [3]. - **Performance of Leading Companies**: The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading companies in the industry, suggesting a favorable outlook for their financial results in the near future [4].

Summary of the Conference Call on Tooling Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the tooling industry, specifically the tool distributor sector, highlighting the performance and challenges faced in 2025 [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments Performance and Market Share - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced steady growth in the electric vehicle and military sectors, successfully replacing some market share previously held by European and Japanese brands, particularly in Chengdu [1][3]. - The company has successfully replaced brands like Mitsubishi and Kyocera in the Chengdu region [3]. Price Increases and Supply Issues - Starting from August 2025, the company faced challenges due to a surge in tungsten powder prices, which more than doubled from over 300 yuan to above 775 yuan, leading to tight inventory and insufficient shipments [1][3][10]. - Tungsten steel milling cutter prices have also doubled, while CNC blade prices increased by 50%-60% [1][4][15]. Impact on Distributors - Large distributors, with sufficient capital, managed to stock up in advance to cope with price hikes, while smaller distributors faced operational pressures due to limited funds, leading to increased industry concentration [1][6]. - The current market environment has resulted in a supply shortage, with many small factories ceasing operations, while large manufacturers maintain full orders but control order quantities [2][8][27]. Inventory Management - The company consciously reduced orders to control shipment speed, maintaining approximately three months of inventory, anticipating a comprehensive price increase after January 1, 2026 [1][9][11]. Demand Drivers - Demand for tools primarily comes from the automotive, new energy, wind power, and military sectors, with steady increases in orders from these areas [1][12]. - Emerging industries such as robotics manufacturing and gearbox processing are also increasing tool usage [1][12]. Future Outlook - Despite low inventory levels, both distributors and end-users remain optimistic about future demand, with expectations of a favorable investment phase from now until 2026 [7]. - The anticipated price increases are expected to be accepted by downstream customers, with a significant price adjustment planned for January 1, 2026 [10][26]. Additional Important Insights - The current market is characterized by a dual pressure of raw material shortages and rising prices, with tungsten steel milling cutter prices in Guangdong rising to 6.5-7 yuan each [1][8]. - The industry is witnessing a trend of domestic products replacing imports, particularly in rough and semi-fine processing, although gaps remain in high-precision and high-end material processing [19][20]. - The price increase trend is expected to continue until the first quarter of 2026, potentially leading to the exit of smaller factories from the market [17][18][22]. - Large manufacturers are strategically managing production and sales to ensure stability and profitability amidst rising costs [28]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the tooling industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on the Tool Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tool industry, specifically highlighting the performance of companies Huari Co., Ltd. and Oke Yi in Q3 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Significant Growth**: - Huari reported a revenue growth of approximately 45% in Q3 2025, with a net profit of around 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9 times [1][2][3]. - Oke Yi's revenue increased by 33% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit exceeding 50 million yuan, reflecting a 70% year-on-year growth [1][2][4]. - **Raw Material Price Surge**: - The prices of key raw materials, tungsten concentrate and tungsten carbide, have skyrocketed, with tungsten concentrate rising from 140,000-150,000 yuan to over 300,000 yuan, and tungsten carbide increasing from over 300 yuan to around 710-720 yuan [1][5][6]. - This price surge has acted as a catalyst for industry growth, allowing midstream consumables to effectively transmit price increases [5]. - **Price Adjustments by Companies**: - Huari and Oke Yi have implemented 3-4 rounds of price adjustments this year, with each adjustment around 10%, totaling an overall adjustment of 30%-40% to cover raw material cost increases [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The industrial sector is experiencing low inventory levels combined with direct replenishment demand, putting pressure on smaller companies while larger firms adjust sales strategies to navigate market changes [6][7]. - Emerging industries such as wind power, automotive, and military are driving rigid demand growth, leading to a depletion of low-priced inventory among distributors and prompting tool replenishment [7]. - **Current Industry Challenges**: - The tool industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with weakened demand in general automation and manufacturing since 2022, leading to reduced inventory levels without significant replenishment [8]. - Despite revenue growth, profit margins have been under pressure due to low capacity utilization and previous investments [8]. - **Future Outlook**: - There is an optimistic outlook for the tool industry, with potential policy signals that could trigger a new wave of demand [11]. - The ongoing trends of international expansion and high-end product development are expected to continue, with Huari and Oke Yi positioned as leading companies in this sector [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Considerations**: - The importance of inventory cycles in investment decisions is diminishing, but attention should still be paid to inventory and demand momentum [12]. - The current bottom of the cycle presents opportunities in cyclical assets like consumable tools, which can benefit directly from changes in demand due to low inventory levels [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the tool industry and the performance of Huari and Oke Yi, highlighting growth trends, challenges, and future expectations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the machine tool industry [7]. Core Insights - The leading companies in the tool industry, such as Oukeyi and Huarui Precision, have shown significant improvement in their performance in Q3 2025, with Oukeyi's revenue and net profit increasing by 33.0% and 69.3% year-on-year, respectively, and Huarui Precision's revenue and net profit soaring by 44.5% and 915.6% year-on-year [1]. - The recovery of industrial growth momentum is expected to benefit the tool sector the most, as policies aimed at reducing inefficient competition and encouraging value-oriented development are in place, leading to a stabilization and improvement in industrial producer prices [2]. - The prices of core raw materials, particularly tungsten, have risen significantly, which has led to increased sales prices for tools. The report indicates that the tool industry is likely to exhibit strong price elasticity during this recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The tool industry is experiencing a high level of production and sales, with leading companies reporting a surge in new orders and improved capacity utilization rates [1]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first rise of the year, which supports the demand for general equipment [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading tool companies with scale effects and robust sales networks, specifically recommending Huarui Precision, Oukeyi, Zhongtung Gaoxin, and Xinrui Co., Ltd. as potential investment opportunities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with notable collaborations and funding activities indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][5][6][7] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers due to increasing power demands from high-performance chips, with a projected increase in adoption rates [8][9] - The machine tool and cutting tool sectors are showing signs of recovery, driven by improved economic expectations and policy implementations [9][15] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from major infrastructure projects, particularly the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [14][15] - The forklift market is witnessing growth in both domestic and export sales, with a significant increase in the penetration of unmanned forklifts [16][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A collaboration between Zhiyuan Robotics and Fulian Precision Engineering marks the first large-scale commercial order for humanoid robots in the industrial sector [4] - Nvidia's new AI models for robotics development, including the Cosmos Reason model, are set to enhance capabilities in physical AI applications [4] - Significant funding rounds for companies like Lingdong General Robotics and Daimeng Robotics are aimed at advancing humanoid robot technology [5][6] Liquid Cooling - Nvidia's latest chip releases indicate a shift towards liquid cooling solutions, with traditional air cooling systems becoming inadequate [8] - China's "East Data West Computing" initiative mandates new data centers to achieve a PUE of less than 1.25, further pushing the adoption of liquid cooling [8] - The report suggests a transition from single-phase to dual-phase cooling technologies as chip power consumption continues to rise [8][9] Machine Tools & Cutting Tools - Japan's machine tool orders show a slight decline, but orders from China continue to grow, indicating a positive trend for the sector [9] - China's metal cutting machine tool production has increased by 13.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting a recovery in demand [9] Engineering Machinery - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to drive demand for engineering machinery [14] - Excavator sales in July 2025 increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the domestic market [15] Forklifts - Forklift sales reached 118,605 units in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, driven by increased operational hours and demand for unmanned forklifts [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the machinery sector [4] Core Insights - Major companies like Huawei and Tencent are actively collaborating with robotics manufacturers, leveraging their capabilities in application scenarios and AI infrastructure to enhance model training and R&D efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots [1][11][41] - The China Securities Index Company has launched the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robotics Index, which includes 34 companies, indicating a potential influx of capital into the robotics sector, supporting continued market momentum [1][11][41] - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for embodied intelligence, including both humanoid and non-humanoid robots, and encourages exploration of investment opportunities in "AI + Robotics" beyond just humanoid robots [1][11][41] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Major tech giants are enhancing robotics manufacturers' capabilities, which is expected to boost the commercialization of humanoid robots [2][11] - The newly launched robotics index includes companies such as Huichuan Technology, Hubei Zhongke, and others, with expectations for increased capital inflow into the sector [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on embodied intelligence and exploring various robotics applications, including exoskeletons and sensors, which do not necessarily depend on humanoid robot proliferation [2][11] Engineering Machinery - Recent rumors about poor domestic sales data for engineering machinery in early May have led to significant stock corrections among leading companies, but the report suggests that this data may not represent the entire month [12][21] - The report anticipates double-digit growth in domestic sales for the year, supported by a low base from the previous year [12][21] - The domestic market is expected to recover, driven by increased investment in infrastructure and construction projects [21][22] Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic semiconductor equipment due to export restrictions from the U.S., which is expected to accelerate the domestic production rate [25][26] - The overall outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector remains positive, with anticipated growth in orders for 2025 [26] 3C Equipment - The report notes that domestic manufacturers are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing adjustments in Apple's production strategy, with expectations for strong demand in 2025 [27] Other Equipment Sectors - The report provides insights into various sectors, including oil service equipment, elevators, rail transit equipment, and mining machinery, with specific recommendations for companies within these sectors [30][31][32][33]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with various companies unveiling new models and applications, indicating a growing market potential [2][3][6][7] - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 17.6% year-on-year in April 2025, suggesting a rebound in demand driven by infrastructure investments [13] - The agricultural machinery market is facing challenges, with a decline in the market sentiment index, indicating potential risks in this sub-sector [9][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Lenovo's humanoid robot showcased at the Tech World 2025 conference demonstrates advanced capabilities such as Tai Chi performance and business Q&A [2] - Sichuan Mianyang deployed humanoid robots for traffic guidance, highlighting practical applications in urban settings [2] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, indicating a diversification of applications in the humanoid robot sector [2] Engineering Machinery - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, with domestic sales at 12,547 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4% [13] - The industry is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investments as major projects are set to commence [13] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index dropped to 47.9% in April 2025, a decrease of 13.8 percentage points from the previous month [9] - The production of various types of tractors showed mixed results, with large tractors increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, while smaller tractors faced declines [9][10] Market Trends - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to see mass production breakthroughs in 2025, which will enhance data collection and training capabilities [7] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to recover gradually as macroeconomic policies take effect, improving equipment utilization rates [13] Key Data Tracking - Japan's machine tool orders in March 2025 reached 151.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] - China's metal cutting machine tool production in the first quarter of 2025 was 182,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5% [8]