橡胶震荡偏强 橡胶周报 2025/11/22 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 交易所库存偏低和泰国降雨量动态 ◆ 2025年10月18日周报提示泰国降雨量预报大幅度增加的利多，中美会谈预期向好，EUDR利好，叠加股市上涨，胶价显著上涨近800元。 ◆ 按照2025年10月24日周报的风险提示，胶价上涨驱动边际减少。胶价出现震荡回调。 ◆ 按照2025年11月1日周报， 2025年11月5-7日的早报提示胶价回调短多机会。 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 20251121 台风影响降雨量预报边际走弱。供应利多减少。 近期行情重点关注 泰国降雨量预报边际走弱 ◆ 未来泰国仍然处于雨季，供应容易受影响。 ◆ 2025年9月25日，抛储6.2万吨。由于抛储的性质是换储，抛多 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shenzhen Kexin New Materials Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in stock price, with a drop of 5.44% to 44.65 CNY per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.645 billion CNY [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-performance special rubber sealing materials, providing comprehensive solutions for waterproofing, insulation, fireproofing, and sealing [1] - The revenue composition of the company's main business includes: 56.03% from heat dissipation metal structural parts, 16.51% from automotive sealing strips, 13.65% from insulation and fireproof materials, 10.82% from waterproof sealing materials, and 2.98% from other products [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Fund has a significant holding in Kexin New Materials, with the Dongwu Double Triangle Stock A fund holding 79,000 shares, accounting for 3.74% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Dongwu Double Triangle Stock A fund has a total scale of 23.4891 million CNY and has achieved a return of 37.68% year-to-date, ranking 894 out of 4208 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Chen Weibin, has been in position for 263 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 93.409 million CNY, achieving a best return of 30.09% and a worst return of 29.64% during his tenure [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,100 - 12,730 in the short - term [2] - During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 day maintenance plan, which dragged down the enterprise capacity utilization rate significantly. As the maintenance enterprises resume operation, the device capacity will be gradually released [2] - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Before the festival, overseas goods arrived at the port and were warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the overall warehouse inbound volume increased month - on - month. Downstream tire factories picked up the previously ordered goods, increasing the overall outbound volume of general trade [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 60 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 140,720 lots, down 378 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 34,149 lots, down 52 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 22,185 lots, up 3,236 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,125 lots, down 482 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 145,390 tons, down 4,420 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,632 tons, down 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 765 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 430 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,968 yuan/ton, down 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 503 yuan/ton, down 513 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.12 Thai baht/kg, down 0.49 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber was 50.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08% [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, up 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, up 0.13 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.68%, up 2.68%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.86%, up 1.3% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.17%, up 0.51%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.16%, up 0.49% [2] Industry News - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderately low, reducing the impact on tapping [2] - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon month - on - month [2] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 15% month - on - month increase from August and an 82% year - on - year increase from 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. BR Main Contract Overview - The closing price of the main contract on August 28 was 11,980, with a daily increase of 270 and a weekly increase of 320 [4]. - The open interest of the main contract was 41,078, up 1,166 daily and 5,323 weekly [4]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 132,297, a daily increase of 37,298 and a weekly increase of 42,963 [4]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 12,260, down 210 daily and up 70 weekly [4]. - The long - short ratio was 16.75 [4]. 2. Basis & Calendar Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene changed from 40 on August 22 to - 30 on August 28, a daily decrease of 120 and a weekly decrease of 70 [4]. - The basis of cis - butadiene (two major oil companies) changed from 240 on August 22 to 120 on August 28, a daily decrease of 270 and a weekly decrease of 120 [4]. - The basis between butadiene styrene and cis - butadiene changed from 590 on August 22 to 420 on August 28, a daily decrease of 270 and a weekly decrease of 170 [4]. - The spread between the 8 - 9 contracts changed from 145 on August 22 to 15 on August 28, a daily decrease of 260 and a weekly decrease of 130 [4]. - The spread between the 9 - 10 contracts was - 15 on August 28, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 35 [4]. 3. Spot Market - The market price in Shandong for cis - butadiene was 11,950 on August 28, up 150 daily and 250 weekly [4]. - The market price at Transfar for cis - butadiene was 11,900 on August 28, up 200 daily and 250 weekly [4]. - The ex - factory price of Qilu for cis - butadiene was 12,100 on August 28, unchanged daily and up 200 weekly [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,475, unchanged daily and no weekly change data available [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged daily and weekly [4]. 4. Processing & Import - Export - The spot processing profit of BR was - 32 on August 28, up 28 daily and down 31 weekly [4]. - The futures processing profit of BR was - 2 on August 28, up 178 daily and 40 weekly [4]. - The import profit was - 86,374 on August 28, up 232 daily and down 1,112 weekly [4]. - The export profit was - 495 on August 28, down 139 daily and 65 weekly [4]. 5. BD Price and Profit - The market price in Shandong for butadiene was 9,590 on August 28, up 90 daily and 275 weekly [4]. - The market price in Jiangsu for butadiene was 9,400 on August 28, up 100 daily and 150 weekly [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit was not available on August 28, and previous data showed fluctuations [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 306 on August 28, up 100 daily and 150 weekly [4]. - The import profit of butadiene was not available on August 28, and previous data showed changes [4]. - The export profit of butadiene was - 93 on August 28, down 93 daily and up 29 weekly [4]. 6. Downstream Profit - The production profit of ABS was 33 on August 28, up 24 daily and 102 weekly [4]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 1,090 on August 28, unchanged daily and down some amount (data incomplete) weekly [4]. 7. Inter - Variety and Intra - Variety Spreads - The spread between RU - BR was - 25,133 on August 28, down 981 daily and 5,003 weekly [4]. - The spread between NR - BR was - 28,298 on August 28, down 1,001 daily and 5,053 weekly [4]. - The spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene was 2,900 on August 28, unchanged daily and weekly [4]. - The spread between 3L and butadiene styrene was 2,750 on August 28, up 150 daily and 150 weekly [4]. - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene was 200 on August 28, down 50 daily and unchanged weekly [4]. - The spread between butadiene styrene 1502 and 1712 was 900 on August 28, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly [4].

Core Viewpoint - Changhong Gaoke (605008.SH) has decided to terminate its investment plan to establish a joint venture with Panjin Shengteng Industrial Development Co., Ltd due to the ongoing downturn in the photovoltaic industry and the uncertainty in future profitability [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Plan Details** - The original investment plan involved a total investment of 500 million yuan, with Changhong Gaoke contributing 225 million yuan for a 45% stake and Panjin Shengteng contributing 275 million yuan for a 55% stake [1] - **Market Conditions** - Since the third quarter of 2023, the photovoltaic industry chain has been in continuous decline, leading to POE film prices dropping to historical lows without signs of recovery [1] - **Decision Rationale** - The decision to terminate the investment was made to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders, as the future profitability of the project is highly uncertain [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 8, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - On August 7, the closing price of the main contract was 11,535, up 30 from the previous day and 40 from the weekly comparison [3][4] - The open interest of the main contract was 26,456, down 1,631 from the previous day and 8,364 from the weekly comparison [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 60,111, up 8,532 from the previous day but down 32,912 from the weekly comparison [4] Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber (BR) decreased by 80 from the previous day and 190 from the weekly comparison [4] - The 8 - 9 month spread of BR decreased by 125 from the previous day and 225 from the weekly comparison [4] Spot Market - The Shandong market price of BR was 11,550 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the weekly comparison [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price of BR remained unchanged at 11,500 on August 7, with a weekly decrease of 300 [4] Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit of BR was - 213 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and 380 from the weekly comparison [4] - The import profit of BR increased by 11 from the previous day and 2,570 from the weekly comparison [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price of BD was 9,375 on August 7, unchanged from the previous day and up 225 from the weekly comparison [4] - The Jiangsu market price of BD was 9,300 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and up 100 from the weekly comparison [4] Processing and Import - Export - The carbon four extraction profit of BD reached 2,228 (data for August 6, N/A for August 7) [4] - The import profit of BD was 388 on August 7, with a daily change not provided and a weekly increase of 207 [4] Group 4: Downstream Product Profit Data - The production profit of ABS was 221 on August 7, down 4 from the previous day and 40 from the weekly comparison [4] - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 960 on August 7, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the weekly comparison [4] Group 5: Inter - and Intra - Variety Spread Data Inter - Variety Spread - The spread between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,800 on August 7, up 80 from the previous day and 250 from the weekly comparison [4] - The spread between 3L rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,600 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the weekly comparison [4] Intra - Variety Spread - The spread between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 200 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the weekly comparison [4] - The spread between styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 and 1712 was 1,100 on August 7, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the weekly comparison [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,995, up 275 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week; the trading volume was 87,016, down 3,349 from the previous day but up 12,030 from the previous week; the open interest was 14,993, down 2,221 from the previous day and 9,436 from the previous week; the warehouse receipt quantity was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis (Shun - Ding) was -145, down 125 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 spread was 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 spread was 25, down 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,850, up 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,800, up 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, up 300 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was -372, down 233 from the previous day and 269 from the previous week; the futures processing profit was -227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from the previous week; the import profit was -85,993, down 2,208 from the previous day and 2,358 from the previous week; the export profit was -733, down 138 from the previous day and 161 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,825, up 375 from the previous day and 460 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,600, up 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, up 200 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,050, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was not available; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 646, up 150 from the previous day and 510 from the previous week; the import profit was 933, up 157 from the previous day and 451 from the previous week; the export profit was -1,468, down 136 from the previous day and 395 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The butadiene rubber production profit was -227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 525, down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was not available; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 530, down 140 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was -98, up 2,306 from the previous day and 9,971 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was -2,243, up 2,296 from the previous day and 9,861 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,720, down 80 from the previous day and up 220 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 2,500, down 150 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].