脱胎于华为的算力"独角兽"，超聚变启动上市辅导 编辑 | 子衿 商业用房首付比例降至30% 今日，商办地产市场迎来重磅利好。 中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办举行的"介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成 效"新闻发布会上宣布，2026年将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率从目前 的1.5%下调到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 另中国人民银行将会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持推动商办房地产市场去 库存。 记者了解到，在本次全国性政策出台之前，绝大多数城市均执行较高的商业用房首付要求，通常为50%，部分银 行或特定项目甚至设定为60%或更高。此次央行发布的政策属于全国性调整，将商业用房购房贷款的最低首付比 例统一下调至30%。（来源：南都·湾财社） 1月15日早间，顺丰控股（002352.SZ，6936.HK）与极兔速递（1519.HK）联合发布公告，宣布达成一项战略性的 相互持股协议，将互为对方增发新股，投资交易金额达83亿港元。根据协议，顺丰控股将向极兔速递增发2.26亿 股H股股份，发行价为每股36.74港元； ...

今日市场震荡分化，沪指一度失守4100点，最终小幅收跌，创业板指顽强翻红。资金高低切换明显，商 业航天、AI应用等题材回调。市场全天成交2.9万亿，较上个交易日缩量超万亿，两市下跌个股超3100 只。 值得注意的是，尾盘宽基ETF持续放量，中证500ETF(510500)成交超263亿，创历史天量，沪深300ETF 华泰柏瑞(510300)成交超250亿，创2024年10月9日以来天量，科创50ETF易方达(588080)、上证 50ETF(510050)、沪深300ETF易方达(510310)、沪深300ETF华夏(510330)、沪深300ETF(159919)成交额 均较昨日实现翻倍增长。 据券商中国，虽然市场走势偏弱，但不乏亮点。梳理发现，市场释放出三大信号：一是在高位题材股退 潮的同时，有色板块表现非常强势，结构性机会依然存在；二是在股市调整过程当中，国债市场并未表 现得过于兴奋，显示风险偏好并未全速退潮；三是从成交来看，亦有明显缩量，市场狂热似告一段落。 那么，后续市场如何演绎？ 有A股"吹哨人"之称的大摩发表报告称，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买 入证券时的融资保证金最低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen strong performance in computing power concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant price increases and market capitalization growth [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hongjing Technology (301396) reached a 20% increase, with a total market value of 13.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 31.31% [2]. - Haitan Ruisheng (688787) rose by 14.55%, with a market capitalization of 11.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 62.97% [2]. - Runze Technology (300442) increased by 14.30%, with a market value of 150.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 74.39% [2]. - Yihualu (300212) saw a 13.26% rise, with a market capitalization of 16.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.61% [2]. - Senyuan Co., Ltd. (300210) increased by 11.17%, with a market value of 5.447 billion and a year-to-date increase of 26.55% [2]. - Zhejiang Wenhu (600986) rose by 10.04%, with a market capitalization of 18.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 58.44% [2]. - Dawi Technology (600589) increased by 10.01%, with a market value of 16.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 51.96% [2]. - People's Daily Online (603000) rose by 10.01%, with a market capitalization of 31 billion and a year-to-date increase of 47.14% [2]. - Fenghuo Communication (600498) increased by 10%, with a market value of 66.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 51.96% [2]. - Hengwei Technology (603496) rose by 9.99%, with a market capitalization of 12.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 44.83% [2]. - Data Port (603881) increased by 9.99%, with a market value of 27.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 26.59% [2]. - Zhizhen Technology (003007) rose by 9.99%, with a market capitalization of 6.086 billion and a year-to-date increase of 60.28% [2]. - Tianyu Dike (300047) increased by 9.94%, with a market value of 9.872 billion and a year-to-date increase of 23.35% [2]. - Longxin Zhongke (688047) rose by 9.89%, with a market capitalization of 65.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 23.35% [2]. - Zhongke Jincai (002657) increased by 8.52%, with a market value of 11 billion and a year-to-date increase of 7.94% [2]. - Tongniu Information (300895) rose by 8.37%, with a market capitalization of 8.11 billion and a year-to-date increase of 30.46% [2]. - Cloudwalk Technology (688327) increased by 8.10%, with a market value of 18.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 26.30% [2]. Group 2: Market Signals - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates a positive trend for these stocks [1].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw strong performance in computing power concept stocks, with several companies hitting the daily limit up [1] - Hongjing Technology experienced a 20% increase, reaching a market capitalization of 13.4 billion [2] - Haitan Ruisheng and Runze Technology both rose over 14%, with market capitalizations of 11.4 billion and 150.5 billion respectively [2] Group 2 - Yihualu increased by over 13%, with a market cap of 16.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.61% [2] - Senyuan Co. saw an increase of over 11%, with a market cap of 5.447 billion [2] - Other notable performers included Zhejiang Wenhulian, Dawi Technology, and People's Daily, each rising by around 10% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou High-tech Zone is establishing itself as a new benchmark for high-quality development through a five-dimensional highland approach, focusing on innovation and technology-driven industries. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhengzhou High-tech Zone achieved a GDP of 48.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. Innovation Ecosystem - The zone has attracted over 110,000 business entities, 80,000 enterprises, and 120,000 technology talents, forming a modern industrial system characterized by "2+4+3" [2]. - Zhengzhou High-tech Zone is home to 654 provincial-level and above research platforms, including 33 national-level ones, showcasing its strong innovation capabilities [5]. Industry Development - The zone has been recognized as a key cultivation area for "advanced computing internet" and "new hydrogen fuel cells," being the only high-tech zone in the province to receive such recognition [5]. - The sensor industry has seen rapid growth, with over 2,900 related enterprises established, covering various applications from gas to agriculture [10]. Policy Environment - Zhengzhou High-tech Zone has implemented various policies to optimize the business environment, including measures to support enterprises in reducing costs and enhancing efficiency [13][15]. - The government has established a comprehensive financial service system, with a fund scale of 17 billion yuan and a venture capital management scale exceeding 195 billion yuan [18]. Talent Development - The zone has attracted a significant number of high-level talents, including 24 academicians and 12 national-level candidates, contributing to its innovation-driven development [19]. - A new talent policy has been introduced, offering up to 20 million yuan in support to attract young talents and stimulate enterprise recruitment [20]. Cultural Integration - Zhengzhou High-tech Zone is integrating cultural heritage with modern innovation, promoting industries like micro-short films and animation, which have become significant cultural assets [22][25].

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, reaching a record high of 36,449.71 billion yuan as of January 12, with an increase of over 4,900 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Chinese stock market is likely to stabilize and surpass important thresholds, supported by three main factors: anticipation of a new Federal Reserve chair, continued inflow of incremental funds, and policy measures aimed at stabilizing investment and the real estate market [1][4] Market Trends - The anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair is expected to create optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. by 2026, which may enhance overseas liquidity and support the stability and appreciation of the yuan [1][4] - The influx of funds represented by the A500 ETF and the "opening red" from insurance capital is expected to solidify liquidity in the market [1][4] - The Chinese government has emphasized the need to stabilize investment and improve expectations in the real estate market, indicating a potential increase in policy support for growth [1][4] Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, non-bank financials, and cyclical sectors are viewed positively. The technology growth sector is expected to see performance upgrades, particularly in domestic computing power and AI applications [2][5] - Non-bank financials are likely to benefit from increased wealth management demand and the movement of household deposits, with a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [2][5] - Cyclical sectors are currently undervalued, with signs of marginal improvement in economic conditions, suggesting potential opportunities in tourism, hospitality, consumer goods, and resource products like metals and chemicals [2][5][6] Thematic Focus - The environment for thematic trading is expected to improve, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption as key areas of interest [2][6]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is driven by a resurgence in AI concepts, leading to a significant increase in the Hang Seng Technology Index by 3.1% and the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 1.44% and 1.9% respectively [1][2] - Major technology stocks showed strong performance, with Kuaishou rising over 7%, Meituan increasing by 6.6%, and both Baidu and Alibaba gaining over 5% [2][3] - The overall trading volume for the Hang Seng Index reached 306.22 billion HKD, marking a new high for the year and closing above 26,500 points [6] Group 2 - The AI sector has emerged as a strong short-term hotspot, with related semiconductor and computing stocks also experiencing gains, while traditional sectors like insurance, home appliances, aviation, and real estate saw declines [4][5] - The market is characterized by a strong bullish sentiment supported by favorable capital conditions, despite some sectors experiencing a high-low switch in performance [5][7] - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese technology giants' index is expected to see significant profit growth by 2026, potentially surpassing the "Big Seven" in the US for the first time since 2022 [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market has started 2026 with a strong bullish trend, marked by a historic 17 consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index [1][7] - The trading volume has significantly increased, surpassing 30 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, indicating a phase of rising prices and volumes, officially launching the spring offensive [1][7] - The current bull market is seen as a once-in-a-decade investment opportunity, with a substantial shift of household savings towards the capital market due to low bank deposit rates [1][7] Group 2 - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with a fundamental change in expectations for housing price increases, particularly in second and third-tier cities [2][8] - The market has broken through the 4150-point mark, moving away from key integer levels and forming an upward trend, with a slow bull market expected to last 3 to 5 years or longer [2][8] - Investment opportunities are anticipated to expand beyond technology and banking sectors to include consumer staples, new energy leaders, non-ferrous metals, and military industries, enhancing the market's profitability [2][8] Group 3 - The current bull market is tasked with three historical missions: enhancing household wealth, stabilizing the real estate market through stock market wealth effects, and supporting the development of new productive forces, particularly in technology innovation [3][9] - Emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are showing active performance, with expectations for continued strength in technology sectors like robotics and semiconductors in 2026 [3][9] Group 4 - Investment in technology stocks, especially leading companies, should be viewed within the context of the AI revolution, representing a long-term trend opportunity [4][10] - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a significant rebound, indicating a similar slow bull market trend as in the A-share market, with expanding investment opportunities [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The "2026 Energy Economic Forecast and Outlook Research Report" was released, highlighting the development trends and challenges in China's energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Development Outlook - The report on China's energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates that a sustainable internal driving force for the new energy system has been established, with traditional fossil energy consumption expected to enter a historical downward trend [2]. - The development of new energy is seen as a key pathway for macroeconomic counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation, contributing significantly to both qualitative and quantitative economic growth [2]. Group 2: Energy Economic Situation - The 2026 China Energy Economic Index report suggests that the macroeconomic situation in 2025 improved steadily with the support of the energy economy, and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to maintain strong momentum alongside batteries and photovoltaics in 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for the energy sector to enhance quality and efficiency through "anti-involution" policies, supported by traditional energy sources [3]. Group 3: Global Energy Transition - The global energy transition index report indicates that by 2024, the overall energy transition is expected to surpass 2015 levels, although the polarization of energy trade networks has increased system vulnerability [3]. - China ranks 13th globally in energy transition, with potential for improvement in sustainability dimensions [3]. Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil price analysis predicts that in 2026, the fundamental support for oil prices will weaken, leading to a more relaxed overall market structure, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices expected to average between $53-63 and $49-59 per barrel, respectively [3]. Group 5: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market report highlights significant growth in the national carbon market in 2025, with an expanded coverage scale and enhanced policy influence and market expectations [4]. - Future efforts are needed to boost market trading vitality and align with global carbon pricing mechanisms and cross-border emission reduction rules [4]. Group 6: Low-Carbon Computing Services - The low-carbon computing services report indicates that China's computing industry is entering a critical transformation phase focused on green, low-carbon, and efficient services [4]. - The report calls for the establishment of a low-carbon computing service system that integrates various market types and enhances sustainability [4].

- The report introduces a **market timing system** based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index. The system identifies market trends by observing whether the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6394 and the 120-day moving average at 6142, with a difference of 4.10%, indicating an upward trend[6][11]. - The **profitability effect** is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current profitability effect is 5.28%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its upward trend[6][11]. - The **industry trend allocation model** highlights sectors with strong upward trends, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, computing power, industrial metals, and energy storage. Additionally, the **mid-term reversal expectation model** signals opportunities in media and innovative healthcare sectors[6][11]. - The **TWO BETA model** recommends focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace[6][11]. - The **valuation metrics** for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level. Based on these metrics and the market trend, the allocation model suggests an 80% equity position for absolute return products[7][11]. - Backtesting results for the market timing system show that the WIND All A Index increased by 5.11% over the past week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) rising by 7.03%, mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 7.92%, and large-cap indices (HS300 and SSE50) by 2.79% and 3.4%, respectively. Sector-wise, defense and media performed strongly, with defense rising by 14.56%, while banking and transportation lagged, with banking declining by 1.88%[2][5][6].