" 阅读此文前，诚邀您点击一下"关注"，方便您随时查阅一系列优质文章，同时便于进行讨论与分享，感谢您的支持！ 芬太尼关税被取消那天，美国贸易代表办公室没有提前通知任何国家。北京凌晨，美国东部时间下午三点，白宫官网悄悄挂出一个声明：对华关税 " 调整 " 即刻生效。文件不长，但每一行都在释放信号。 取消的不是小数额，是特朗普亲自拍板的 " 芬太尼 10% 关税 。这项关税曾是美方施压中国的象征性工具，如今被悄无声息地撤掉了。 印度的名字，从头到尾没有出现在这份声明里。但印度的代价，却在第二天醒来后连本带利地显现出来。 美国海关官网上更新的清单写得明明白白：对中国商品延长 关税 观察期 ，对印度商品执行 50% 惩罚性关税 ，不设过渡期，不设排除豁免。 " " 一句话，美国打算从中国收手，把压力全压在印度身上。 一夜之间，印度成了替中国 " 顶雷 的国家。莫迪政府没有准备。没有反制手段，没有谈判成果。 美印贸易关系紧张 " ，但没人知道紧张的底线在哪里。有人在推特上发了张图：一个人高举国旗站在中美之间，被两边的炮火包围。 这就是印度现在的位置 " ，配文写道。 没人想到，美国对中国的态度会变得这么快。就在上个月， ...

Core Points - The US and South Korea have reached an agreement on specific terms of a trade deal, including a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in the US [1][2] - The investment plan consists of $200 billion in cash investments, with an annual cap of $20 billion, and an additional $150 billion allocated for shipbuilding projects [2] - The agreement maintains a 15% tariff on automotive parts and ensures that semiconductor tariffs will not disadvantage South Korea [1][2][3] Investment Commitments - South Korea's $350 billion investment will be executed in two phases, with $200 billion as cash investments and $150 billion for shipbuilding [2] - The investment commitments are expected to be finalized by January 2029 [2] - This investment strategy mirrors a previous agreement between the US and Japan, indicating a consistent approach by the Trump administration towards major Asian economies [2] Tariff Arrangements - The US will maintain a 15% overall tariff level, with both countries agreeing on the same tariff rate for automotive parts [1][3] - South Korea has secured the most-favored-nation status for pharmaceutical tariffs, which is a significant advantage [3] - In the agricultural sector, South Korea successfully resisted demands for further market opening, particularly concerning rice and beef [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80 and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interest changes were - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3051.20, 3051.60, 3053.00, and 3049.20 respectively, with decreases of - 17.00, - 16.20, - 16.00, and - 18.80 and decreases of - 0.55%, - 0.53%, - 0.52%, and - 0.61% respectively. The trading volumes were 10401.00, 34831.00, 4435.00, and 1454.00, and the open interest changes were - 808.00, - 1601.00, 52.00, and - 68.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7287.40, 7231.00, 7068.20, and 6886.60 respectively, with decreases of - 25.60, - 28.40, - 25.40, and - 20.20 and decreases of - 0.35%, - 0.39%, - 0.36%, and - 0.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 24174.00, 82049.00, 15658.00, and 4523.00, and the open interest changes were - 2679.00, - 6265.00, - 377.00, and - 112.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7410.00, 7335.60, 7122.60, and 6907.20 respectively, with increases of 2.60, 3.00, 4.20, and 3.00 and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volumes were 38819.00, 141946.00, 22315.00, and 8213.00, and the open interest changes were - 3501.00, - 1434.00, - 1256.00, and 1365.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.60, 0.40, - 56.40, and - 74.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 12.80, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4691.97, with a trading volume of 220.91 billion shares and a total trading value of 5715.63 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4716.02, with a trading volume of 262.20 billion shares and a total trading value of 6726.70 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.51% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3050.42, with a trading volume of 54.63 billion shares and a total trading value of 1487.20 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3069.53, with a trading volume of 70.41 billion shares and a total trading value of 1852.95 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.62% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7341.03, with a trading volume of 202.12 billion shares and a total trading value of 4220.69 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7379.39, with a trading volume of 232.05 billion shares and a total trading value of 4717.62 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.52% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7479.22, with a trading volume of 251.80 billion shares and a total trading value of 4310.16 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7495.38, with a trading volume of 265.34 billion shares and a total trading value of 4581.70 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Performance**: The declines in energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.86%, - 2.97%, - 0.31%, and - 0.06% respectively. For other industries like major consumption, medicine and health, real - estate finance, and information technology, the changes were 0.01%, - 1.61%, etc. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 futures contracts were provided, showing differences compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Information on the previous values and changes of domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were presented [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, with goals including economic growth in a reasonable range, increased total factor productivity, and higher resident consumption rates. It also proposed developing strategic emerging industries and key technology breakthroughs in certain fields. China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There are talks about a China - EU meeting on rare - earth issues. China is committed to opening up its financial sector [2] 6. Industry Information - The 11th batch of national drug procurement was successfully bid. The soybean area in China is expected to remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the number of breeding sows has decreased. A special campaign against live - streaming reward chaos was launched. The added value of the wholesale and retail industry increased by 5.6% in the first three quarters, and rural road construction progress and investment were reported [2] 7. Stock Index Views - U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, while the domestic stock index adjusted downward the previous day. The market turnover was 2.17 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased. After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage. The market style may return to value in the fourth quarter [2]

Market Overview - On October 28, the A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with all three major indices closing in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22% to 3988.22 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44% to 13430.1 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.15% to 3229.58 points. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included Fujian, military industry, and port shipping, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals, wind power equipment, and oil and gas saw declines [2] International Market - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices rose on October 28, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 161.78 points (0.34%) to 47706.37 points, the S&P 500 rising by 15.73 points (0.23%) to 6890.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 190.04 points (0.80%) to 23827.49 points [4][5] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 0.44% while the French CAC40 and German DAX indices fell by 0.27% and 0.12%, respectively [4] - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil falling by 1.89% to $60.15 per barrel and Brent crude down by 1.86% [4][5] Policy Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released suggestions for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the promotion of RMB internationalization, enhancing capital project openness, and building a self-controlled cross-border payment system for the RMB [7] - The plan also includes initiatives to develop cultural industries, promote new infrastructure, and advance artificial intelligence applications [8][9][10][11][12][13] Company Announcements - Key companies reported significant profit increases in Q3, including: - Keli Yuan: Net profit increased by 2837% due to growth in nickel battery and consumer battery segments - Haid Group: Plans to repurchase shares worth 1-1.6 billion yuan for capital reduction and employee incentive plans - Sunshine Power: Net profit rose by 57.04% - Zhaoyi Innovation: Net profit increased by 61% due to improved supply conditions in the DRAM industry - China Film: Net profit surged by 1463%, with total box office revenue reaching 12.3 billion yuan [20] Fund Flow Analysis - The top five sectors with net inflows included biopharmaceuticals, cultural media, and glass fiber, while the semiconductor sector experienced the largest net outflow [21] - Notable individual stocks with significant net inflows included N He Yuan-U and N Yi Cai-U, while Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt saw substantial net outflows [22]

Core Points - The agreements signed by President Trump during the ASEAN summit aim to deepen economic ties and diversify supply chains while addressing trade imbalances [1] Group 1: Key Mineral Cooperation - The agreements with Malaysia and Thailand focus on the construction of diversified supply chains, particularly in critical minerals [3] - Malaysia has committed not to impose export bans or quota restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth elements to the U.S., despite previously banning rare earth exports to develop downstream industries [4] Group 2: Tariffs and Market Access - The trade agreements include tariff adjustments, with the U.S. maintaining a 19% base tariff rate on exports to Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, while some products will see tariffs reduced to zero [5] - Vietnam has agreed to a framework that imposes a 20% tariff on U.S. products, while committing to significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods to reduce the trade surplus, which is projected to reach $123 billion in 2024 [5] - All four countries have pledged to eliminate trade barriers and provide preferential market access for U.S. goods, with Thailand agreeing to remove tariffs on approximately 99% of goods [5] Group 3: Practical Cooperation and Trade Orders - The agreements resulted in substantial trade commitments, with Thailand promising to purchase 80 aircraft from the U.S. annually, valued at $18.8 billion, along with $5.4 billion in energy products and $2.6 billion in agricultural products each year [6] - The agreements also encompass cooperation in digital trade, service investment, labor rights protection, and environmental protection [7] - Malaysia's role as a global leader in halal certification will facilitate the entry of U.S. products into its market, creating opportunities for specialized trade [7]

3、国务院关于金融工作情况的报告：要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策 盘前要闻 1、中美在吉隆坡举行经贸磋商，双方解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中美双方围绕美对华海事物流和造船业301措施、延长对等关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产 品贸易、出口管制等双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解 决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。另据路透社，美国财长贝森特表示，美方不再考虑对中国加征100% 的关税。 2、我国光刻胶领域取得新突破!新技术可显著减少芯片光刻缺陷 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 北大团队通过冷冻电子断层扫描技术，首次在原位状态下解析了光刻胶分子在液相环境中的微观三维结 构、界面分布与缠结行为，指导开发出可显著减少光刻缺陷的产业化方案。平安证券认为，虽然起步较 晚，但国内光刻机产业链从业者正在积极追赶，建议关注产业链整机及相关零部件公司。 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 国务院关于金融工作情况的报告指出，要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，为巩固拓展经济回升向好势头 营造适宜的货币金融环境。执行好各项已出台货币政策措施，持续释放政策效能，研究储备新的政策举 措 ...

Group 1 - The United States signed a series of trade agreements with four Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, focusing on tariffs and key minerals [1] - The agreements maintain a 19% tariff rate on exports to Malaysia and Cambodia, with some products gradually reducing to zero tariffs, while Vietnam currently faces a 20% tariff [1] - Vietnam has committed to significantly increasing its purchases of American products to reduce the trade surplus, which reached $123 billion last year [1] Group 2 - Thailand agreed to eliminate tariffs on approximately 99% of goods and relax foreign ownership restrictions in its telecommunications sector [2] - Malaysia will simplify regulations for American cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, and has secured tariff exemptions for aerospace equipment and commodities like palm oil and cocoa [2] - Thailand committed to purchasing 80 American aircraft worth $18.8 billion and will buy around $5.4 billion in energy products annually, including LNG and crude oil [2]

中新网海口10月24日电 (王玫若冰李鸿浩)海口海关24日披露，海南自贸港"零关税"进口药械政策项下享 惠货值已突破3亿元，累计为企业减免税款超4000万元。 海南自贸港"零关税"进口药械政策于2024年底落地。海关介绍，过去10个月来，在各部门协同推动下， 海南博鳌乐城国际医疗旅游先行区内已有16家企业通过享惠主体资质审核，享惠药械种类超过518种， 政策红利持续释放。 海口海关所辖博鳌机场海关负责人表示，自"零关税"进口药械政策实施以来，该关率先建立"双全"(全 年全天)预约通关机制，确保药械"即报即验即放"。通过提供精准服务、政策解读及"一站式"通关保 障，海关持续提升政策推介力度，及时响应企业诉求，有效促进了更多国际优质与国内已上市药械充分 享受"零关税"红利。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

文|夜微寒 编辑|沐语纪史 前言 2025年的全球经济舞台上，一场以关税为武器的博弈正在激烈上演。 美国特朗普政府将矛头对准印度，掀起了一场波及经济、外交、军事多领域的风暴。 这背后，是美国转嫁自身危机的算计，是印度沦为"替罪羊"的无奈，更是全球秩序重构的缩影。 这场较量不仅关乎两个国家的未来，更深刻影响着新兴市场的命运走向。 美国为何偏偏盯上印度 打不过中国，还收拾不了印度？这句不光是特朗普更是所有美国人的心声，或许正是美国对华战略受阻后转向南亚的真实心态。 一切都是源自特朗普签署的一份行政令，宣布全国进入经济紧急状态，对所有国家进口商品征收10%关税，仅四天后，印度就被单独点名，额外加征26% 关税，总税率飙升至36%。 后续关税更是层层加码，最终针对印度与俄罗斯的能源和军贸合作，将税率推至50%的高位。 美国给出的理由看似冠冕堂皇，印度平均关税17%，远高于美国的3.3%，且印度持续购买俄罗斯石油和武器，破坏了美国对俄施压的计划。 为了实现对印度的经济控制，美国早有预谋。 从去年开始，美国政府内部就秘密讨论"去印度化"战略，表面上减少对印度的依赖，实则为后续的资本收割铺路。 印度的民生与市场双重困境 美 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Economic Outlook - **Global Economic Policies**: In 2025, major economies are expected to implement both fiscal and monetary easing policies, albeit at different paces. The lagging effect of tariffs on inflation is not expected to be significant in 2025 but will become more pronounced in 2026, constraining monetary policy while fiscal policy remains loose due to political factors [1][2] - **China's Export Growth**: Contrary to previous pessimistic views on the impact of US-China trade conflicts, China's export growth in 2025 is projected to exceed expectations, nearing 6%. This growth is anticipated to continue into 2026, driven by high-tech and industrial manufacturing sectors [1][2] - **Debt Sustainability Concerns**: The rising debt-to-GDP ratios in multiple countries have led to questions about fiscal sustainability, with the yield spread between long-term and short-term government bonds reaching historical highs in the US, Japan, France, and the UK [1][4] Macroeconomic Indicators - **US Economic Growth**: The US is expected to maintain a real GDP growth rate of around 1.8%, entering a new equilibrium phase driven by AI investments rather than traditional consumer spending [1][8][20] - **Japan's Fiscal Policy**: Japan is likely to maintain fiscal easing under the new Prime Minister, but monetary easing may be constrained due to inflation pressures. The government may resort to tax cuts or increased subsidies to expand fiscal spending [1][13] - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is expected to remain a critical issue, with core PCE in the US projected to rise to between 2.8% and 3.1% due to increased tariffs and consumer burden [1][18] Trade and Investment Dynamics - **US Tariff Impact**: The actual tariff revenue as a percentage of imported goods is about 11%, with theoretical rates close to 20%. This discrepancy is attributed to the declining share of Chinese imports and exemptions in US tariff agreements. Future increases in actual tariffs are anticipated, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [1][17] - **China's Economic Structure**: China's economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with a decline in labor-intensive product exports and an increase in the share of machinery and electronics, which now account for 63% of total exports. High-tech product exports are also on the rise [1][22][23] Future Projections - **China's GDP Growth**: For 2026, China's real GDP growth is projected at approximately 4.65%, with CPI expected to rise above 1% and export growth further increasing to 6.1% [1][21] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment**: The outlook for China's real estate market remains pessimistic due to high inventory levels, while infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize at 4% to 5% [1][22][30] - **Global Inflation Resilience**: The resilience of global inflation may lead to political unrest and significant economic impacts, with potential for sudden shifts from long-term issues to short-term crises [1][25] Conclusion - The economic landscape for 2025 and 2026 is characterized by a complex interplay of fiscal and monetary policies, trade dynamics, and structural changes in major economies, particularly in the context of US-China relations and global inflation trends. The focus on AI investments in the US and the transformation of China's export profile are key themes to monitor moving forward [1][20][28]