证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 29 日 固德威（688390.SH） 增持（首次） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：92.48 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 243 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 243 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 22.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 22.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 11.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 0.4 | | 资产负债率 | 66.3% | | 主要股东 | 黄敏 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 30.8% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 50 113 126 相对表现 49 99 102 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 固德威 沪深300 公司是分布式光储逆变器领先者，拥有完善的产品矩阵与全球化的营销体系。 自 2023 年下半年以来，受到欧洲户储去库影响，经营阶段性承压。2025 年 Q3 开始，受澳洲户储补贴推动，公司经营得到改善。近期，澳洲再度加码户储补 贴； ...

智通财经APP获悉，据港交所1月27日披露，宁波德业科技股份有限公司(605117.SH)向港交所主板递交上市申请书，中金公司、中信证券、招银国际为联席 保荐人。据招股书，德业股份是一家全球领先的光储产品提供商，致力于提供全面的光伏和储能产品，为全球用户带来清洁、可持续的绿色能源。根据 Frost & Sullivan的数据，以2024年销售金额计，德业股份为全球第一大户用储能逆变器提供商。 | [编纂]的[编纂]數目 | : [编纂]股H股(視乎[编纂]行使與否而定) | | --- | --- | | [编纂]數目 .. | [编纂]股H股(可予[编纂]) | | [编纂]數目 : | [编纂]股H股(可予[编纂]及視乎[编纂]行使與否 | | 而定) | | | 最高[编纂] : | 每股[编纂][编纂]港元另加1%經紀佣金、 | | 0.0027％設監會交易徵費、0.00565%聯交所 | | | 交易費及0.00015%會財局交易徵費(須於申請 | | | 時以港元繳足,可予退還) | | | 面值 | 每股H股人民幣1.00元 | | [编纂] : [编纂] | | | 聯席保薦人、[编纂]、[编 ...

Macroeconomic Group - The Ministry of Finance announced a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, with new government debt expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 290 billion yuan from the previous year [4] - In 2026, measures will include the continuation of long-term special bonds for infrastructure and new projects, as well as optimizing personal consumption loan policies to lower credit costs for residents and service industry operators [4] - A national-level merger fund is being considered to address "involution" competition and promote a unified national market [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Japan's Resonac announced a price increase of over 30% for all series of copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs [7] - Domestic companies like Dongwei Technology and Chipbond Microelectronics reported over 10-fold growth in Q4 2025, indicating a sustained high demand in the PCB industry [7] - Tongfu Microelectronics expects a net profit of 1.1 to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.34% to 99.24%, driven by improved capacity utilization and management [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Inverter exports reached 839 million USD in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with significant contributions from Europe and Africa [10] - The growth in inverter demand is linked to the need for grid stability and flexibility, particularly in regions with high renewable energy penetration [10] Consumer Group - The Ministry of Finance extended tax benefits for community services such as elderly care and childcare from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, which will lower tax burdens for compliant operators [12] - China Duty Free Group plans to acquire DFS's Greater China business for up to 395 million USD, enhancing its brand resources and procurement power in the luxury goods sector [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jinlang Technology has shown a positive stock performance with a 12.38% increase since the beginning of the year and a significant rise in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [2][3] - As of January 19, Jinlang Technology's stock price reached 80.25 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 31.949 billion yuan and a trading volume of 334 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of string inverters, with its main revenue sources being grid-connected inverters (47.97%), household photovoltaic systems (21.28%), and energy storage inverters (20.91%) [2] Group 2 - Jinlang Technology has distributed a total of 660 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 318 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and E Fund's ChiNext ETF, both of which have reduced their holdings [3] - The company operates within the power equipment industry, specifically in photovoltaic equipment and inverters, and is associated with concepts such as inverters, solar energy, photovoltaic glass, semiconductors, and energy storage [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growth of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly in the third quarter of 2025, where the installation volume of traction inverters reached 8.35 million units, marking a 22% year-on-year increase. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are the main contributors to this growth, with installation growth rates of 36% and 13.6% respectively [2][6]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The global installation volume of traction inverters in Q3 2025 reached 8.35 million units, a 22% increase year-on-year [2]. - The growth rates for BEVs and PHEVs were 36% and 13.6% respectively, indicating strong demand in the EV sector [2]. - The integration of electric drive systems in vehicle chassis is increasing, with over 70% of inverter installations featuring a "3 in 1" or higher integration type [2]. Group 2: SiC Power Semiconductors - SiC power semiconductors are becoming key components in electric drive systems due to their compact size and higher voltage tolerance [5]. - In Q3 2025, the global installation volume of SiC inverters surpassed 1.5 million units, achieving a historical high [5]. - The penetration rate of SiC inverters in electric vehicles increased from 14% in 2024 to 18% in 2025, and reached 22% specifically for new energy vehicles [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - 84% of SiC inverter installations were contributed by BEVs, with the remaining from PHEVs and Range-Extended Electric Vehicles (REEVs) [6]. - The Chinese market remains the largest for SiC inverters, accounting for approximately 75% of the installation volume, while demand in Europe and the US is showing signs of weakness [6]. - Despite the growth in inverter installation volumes, the overall market value in Q3 2025 decreased by 10% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting pricing pressures from automakers [6].

Core Viewpoint - Greebo (301260) has confirmed that its existing micro-inverters are equipped with photovoltaic charging capabilities, but it currently lacks high-power inverters for use at electric vehicle charging stations [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on enriching its existing product ecosystem through the research and development of inverter products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Greebo (301260.SZ), confirmed that its existing micro-inverters are compatible with photovoltaic charging applications, but it currently lacks high-power inverters suitable for automotive charging stations [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its existing product ecosystem in the development of inverter products [1] - There is an ongoing investment in research and development for inverter products, although specific high-power products for automotive charging stations are not yet available [1]

12月18日，德业股份盘中下跌2.03%，截至10:42，报87.62元/股，成交2.82亿元，换手率0.35%，总市值 795.39亿元。 德业股份所属申万行业为：电力设备-光伏设备-逆变器。所属概念板块包括：送转填权、高派息、基金 重仓、家用电器、高送转等。 截至9月30日，德业股份股东户数7.34万，较上期增加40.19%；人均流通股12375股，较上期减少 28.40%。2025年1月-9月，德业股份实现营业收入88.46亿元，同比增长10.36%；归母净利润23.47亿元， 同比增长4.79%。 分红方面，德业股份A股上市后累计派现52.42亿元。近三年，累计派现49.01亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，德业股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股3336.64万股，相比上期增加107.52万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第六大流 通股东，持股609.34万股，相比上期减少42.41万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第九大流通股 东，持股444.66万股，为新进股东。光伏ETF（515790）位居第十大流通股东，持股410.8 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market predictions and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that market prices often reflect emotional states rather than rational evaluations of fundamentals [4][5]. - It highlights examples from the A-share market where stock prices peaked before the actual revenue growth of leading companies, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [6][8]. - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can foresee fundamental changes, emphasizing that historical examples often reflect narrative biases rather than true predictive capabilities [10][12]. Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and fundamentals is explored through the "random walk theory," which posits that stock prices reflect fundamental changes only when informed investors act on new information [20][22]. - It is noted that only a small percentage of informed investors (10%) can accurately assess changes in fundamentals, leading to a disconnect for the majority of investors who may misinterpret market signals [19][21]. - The article concludes that while market movements may seem to predict fundamental changes, they often do not provide actionable insights for uninformed investors [33][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market movements and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that stock prices often reflect future changes in fundamentals rather than current conditions [3][4][6] - It highlights examples from various industries, such as consumer goods and renewable energy, where stock prices peaked before revenue growth did, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [4][5] - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can predict fundamental changes, emphasizing that market movements are often a result of a small percentage of informed investors influencing prices while the majority react to these changes [18][30] Group 2 - The article critiques the notion that stock prices foresee fundamental changes, stating that this belief is often a narrative bias and that stock prices and fundamentals generally move in sync [28] - It explains that when fundamentals do not change, stock prices exhibit random fluctuations, and only a small fraction of investors (10%) can accurately price in changes, leading to misinterpretations by the larger market [29][30] - The conclusion emphasizes that while the market is effective, it does not allow for easy exploitation of its efficiency, as most investors must rely on their limited understanding to make decisions [32]