思想钢印 . 以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 市场真能"预见"未来吗？ 01 市场先生到底靠不靠谱？ 投资者总会遇到一种情况，上市公司基本面没有什么问题，股价却大幅下跌，或行业在景气度没有变化时，持续下跌，或者指数在经济数据不错 （或不好）时，表现疲软（或强劲）。 按照经典的价值投资的解释，市场先生并不是理性的，常常会精神亢奋或情绪沮丧，就会给出特别好或特别差的价格，投资者应该无视市场的这些 杂讯，甚至利用"市场先生"不合理的报价赚钱。 不过，大部分投资者都更接受另一种说法，市场先生那些看似不合理的报价，实际上是提前反映了基本面的未来变化，是在预测未来。 这个说法有很多例子，特别是过去几年A股的大产业趋势，股价与行业景气度的关系都是如此： 大部分消费龙头营收增速见顶是在20年4季度（剔除21年上半年低基数的影响），而股价见顶是在20年一季度； 还有新能源行情： 电池龙头营收增速见顶是22年三季度， ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 电池龙头营收增速见顶是22年三季度 ， 股价见顶是21年四季度 ； 光伏龙头营收增速见顶是22年四季度 ， 股价见顶也是21年四季度 ； 逆变器龙头营收增速见顶是23年一季度 ， 股价见顶同样是21年四季度 ； 01 市场先生到底靠不靠谱 ？ 投资者总会遇到一种情况 ， 上市公司基本面没有什么问题 ， 股价却大幅下跌 ， 或行业在景气度没有变化时 ， 持续下跌 ， 或者指数在经济数 据不错 （ 或不好 ） 时 ， 表现疲软 （ 或强劲 ） 。 按照经典的价值投资的解释 ， 市场先生并不是理性的 ， 常常会精神亢奋或情绪沮丧 ， 就会给出特别好或特别差的价格 ， 投资者应该无视市场 的这些杂讯 ， 甚至利用 " 市场先生 " 不合理的报价赚钱 。 不过 ， 大部分投资者都更接受另一种说法 ， 市场先生那些看似不合理的报价 ， 实际上是提前反映了基本面的未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinko Technology's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 15.90% but a recent decline in the last five and twenty trading days [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jinko Technology, established on September 9, 2005, and listed on March 19, 2019, specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of string inverters [2] - The company's main revenue sources include grid-connected inverters (47.97%), household photovoltaic systems (21.28%), energy storage inverters (20.91%), new energy power generation (8.01%), and others (1.83%) [2] - As of November 28, 2025, Jinko Technology had 72,300 shareholders, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous period, with an average of 4,449 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.61% [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jinko Technology achieved a revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, up 29.39% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Stock Performance and Trading Activity - On December 2, Jinko Technology's stock price fell by 2.00%, trading at 70.55 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 28.087 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a net outflow of 18.995 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard once this year, with a net buy of 433 million yuan on September 5 [1] Group 4: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Jinko Technology's top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with some shareholders reducing their holdings while new shareholders entered [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on sectors with "inventory stabilization at low levels, capacity structure optimization, and continuous improvement in prosperity" for December [1][5] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple factors, including the cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and ongoing inflation concerns, with cyclical sectors and defensive industries performing relatively well [1][5] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, power equipment (batteries, inverters, wind power equipment), defense and military, coal, basic chemicals, and steel [1][5] Group 2 - Economic data from January to October indicates a continuous slowdown, influenced by high bases, anti-involution policies, and reduced local investment [5] - The report notes that the supply side has seen significant capacity clearance, with some industries beginning to see improvements in capacity utilization rates as demand recovers [5][9] - The report emphasizes that the third quarter saw an unexpected improvement in A-share earnings, particularly in consumer services, resource products, and midstream manufacturing [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors for attention, including non-bank financials, where leading brokerages are accelerating consolidation, and insurance companies are expected to see high growth in profitability [6] - In the power equipment sector, the supply-demand landscape is improving, with prices in the new energy and photovoltaic supply chain continuing to rise [6] - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and demand for military trade, driven by geopolitical tensions [6] Group 4 - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to stricter safety regulations, with winter heating supporting stable demand for thermal coal [6] - Basic chemicals are seeing a structural improvement in demand, particularly in the pesticide sector, which is benefiting from reduced internal competition [6] - The steel industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by high-end manufacturing demand, particularly from emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]

Core Viewpoint - The inverter industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among companies, with some facing substantial profit declines while others report strong growth, largely influenced by varying market conditions domestically and internationally [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Since 2020, global renewable energy installations have surged, benefiting the inverter industry, but recent warnings of "overcapacity" have led to performance declines for some high-growth companies [1]. - In the third quarter, out of 10 listed inverter companies, 6 reported declines in net profit, with 4 experiencing profit halving; conversely, 3 companies, including industry leader Sungrow, saw quarterly growth rates exceeding 100% [1][3]. - The third-quarter reports indicate that while many inverter companies maintained growth in the first three quarters, several experienced declines in revenue and net profit in the third quarter [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance divergence is attributed to the contrasting conditions in domestic and international markets, particularly the inventory pressure in the European market affecting companies reliant on overseas sales [2][10]. - The domestic market for large-scale ground-mounted solar power plants has seen a significant increase in installations, with a reported growth of over 357.8% in concentrated solar power installations this year [12]. - The European market has faced a significant decline in demand for household photovoltaic and storage inverters, leading to excess supply and reduced orders from distributors [10][11]. Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies reporting declines, Yunneng Technology had the highest net profit decline at 62.75%, while DeYe and Keda saw smaller declines of 36.1% and 16.56%, respectively [3][4]. - Conversely, companies like Sungrow, with a revenue of 177.92 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 147.29%, and Hewei Electric, with a net profit growth of 246.82%, demonstrated strong performance [7][5]. - The companies can be categorized into two groups: those like Jinlang Technology that focus on micro inverters and household storage products primarily for overseas markets, and those like Sungrow that focus on large-scale centralized inverters for domestic ground-mounted power plants [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The inventory destocking cycle in overseas markets is expected to last several months, while the domestic market is anticipated to see a surge in demand for large-scale ground-mounted solar power plants in the fourth quarter [15][16]. - Analysts predict that the performance of companies focusing on centralized inverters will remain strong in the near term, while those reliant on household products may continue to face challenges [15][16].

Core Insights - Airo Energy's stock price decreased by 2.01% to 67.91 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 10.866 billion CNY as of November 17 [1] - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 45.39%, but has seen a decline of 11.72% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Airo Energy reported a revenue of 3.028 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.80% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million CNY, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 6.32% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, Airo Energy had 10,600 shareholders, an increase of 36.02% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 25.94% to 9,190 shares [2] Business Overview - Airo Energy, established on March 2, 2012, focuses on providing photovoltaic energy storage inverters, storage batteries, and grid-connected inverters primarily to overseas customers [1] - The company's revenue composition includes 60.42% from household energy storage systems, 20.74% from grid-connected inverters, 13.63% from commercial energy storage systems, and 5.21% from accessories and others [1] Dividend Information - Airo Energy has distributed a total of 150 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing [3]

Group 1 - China Pacific Insurance's subsidiary, China Pacific Life, reported a cumulative premium income of 241.32 billion yuan for the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [1] - China Pacific Property Insurance, another subsidiary, achieved a cumulative premium income of 173.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [1] - Nocera Biopharma reported a net loss of 64.41 million yuan for the first three quarters, despite a revenue increase of 59.85% to 1.115 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Founder Securities received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue short-term corporate bonds not exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] - Haicheng Bonda's director plans to reduce his stake by up to 0.97%, equating to 198,400 shares [1] - Yuyuan Group intends to repurchase shares worth between 200 million and 300 million yuan, with a maximum price of 8.60 yuan per share [1] Group 3 - Huaren Shuanghe's subsidiary passed the GMP compliance inspection for a specific diabetes medication [4] - Lichong Group received project notifications from three international automotive manufacturers, with expected sales amounting to approximately 1.135 billion yuan [6] - Deyang Co. is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy [7] Group 4 - Longxin General announced the transfer of its entire stake in a subsidiary for 105.6 million yuan, and also plans to divest another stake for 1 yuan due to poor performance [16] - Kangda New Materials decided to terminate the acquisition of a semiconductor company due to unsatisfactory due diligence progress [17] - Lu'an Environmental reported a 3.28% year-on-year increase in coal sales for October, totaling 3.78 million tons [18] Group 5 - Shanghai Port Group plans to invest 2 billion yuan to establish a new holding company with several state-owned enterprises [20] - Borui Pharmaceutical's new drug for obesity treatment has received clinical trial approval [23] - Silver Dragon Co. has completed the registration of a new energy industry fund focusing on high-growth potential projects [24] Group 6 - Hengrui Medicine received approval for a clinical trial of a prostate cancer drug [11] - Baiji Shenzhou reported a net profit of 1.139 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a turnaround from losses [36] - Huasheng Pharmaceutical's special medical food product has received registration certification [60]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Deye Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.347 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.79% [1] - The company has decided to terminate its previous investment in a project for an annual production capacity of 25.5 GW for string and energy storage inverters, and instead will invest in a new project for an annual production capacity of 7 GWh for industrial and commercial energy storage, expected to be completed by April 2028 [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 825 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.84% [1] - The new energy storage project is projected to generate an annual revenue of 4.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 730 million yuan once completed [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a strong advantage in emerging markets, with industrial and commercial energy storage enhancing its growth potential [1] - Deye Co., Ltd. has significant first-mover advantages and channel barriers in the Africa, Asia, and Latin America markets, with new off-grid energy storage inverters tailored to meet the demands of these regions [1] - The European market is showing signs of steady recovery, further supporting the company's growth strategy [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Deye Co., Ltd. based on its market position and growth prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, DeYee Co., Ltd. (605117.SH), announced a change in its fundraising project, reallocating 6.51 billion RMB of unused funds from a previously planned inverter production line to a new project focused on commercial energy storage systems, with a total investment of 11.12 billion RMB [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.31 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 824.77 million RMB, a decrease of 17.84% [2][3]. - The total profit for the period was 1.00 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 13.68% compared to the previous year [2]. - The basic earnings per share were 0.92 RMB, down 19.30% year-on-year [1]. Investment Projects - The new project, "Annual Production of 7GWh Commercial Storage Production Line," is expected to generate an annual net profit of 734 million RMB upon reaching full production [9]. - The original project aimed at producing 25.5GW of string and storage inverters had a total investment of 19.99 billion RMB, with 14.92 billion RMB planned to be funded through the raised capital [3][5]. - The company has already invested 8.64 billion RMB in the original project, with a progress rate of 57.94% [5]. Market Trends - The inverter market is experiencing a stabilization in demand, with a 5.1% increase in export quantity and a 7.6% increase in export value in the first half of the year [10]. - The commercial storage market is witnessing robust demand, driven by policy support and increasing economic viability, particularly in overseas markets [10][11]. - The global energy storage market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2024 to 2030, with significant demand expected in emerging markets [11]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for commercial storage products is significantly higher than that of string inverters, with margins of 62.15% for commercial storage inverters compared to 42.80% for string inverters in 2023 [12]. - The company aims to leverage its competitive pricing and product offerings in the energy storage sector to enhance profitability [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Jinlang Technology's stock rose by 5% on October 31, reaching 84.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.033 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.88%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 33.442 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Jinlang Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Xiangshan Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 9, 2005. The company went public on March 19, 2019. Its main business involves the research, production, sales, and service of string inverters, with the primary product being string inverters [1] - The revenue composition of Jinlang Technology includes: grid-connected inverters (47.97%), household photovoltaic power generation systems (21.28%), energy storage inverters (20.91%), new energy power production (8.01%), and others (1.83%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, Guodu Securities has one fund heavily invested in Jinlang Technology. Guodu Innovation Drive (002020) held 3,000 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 2.57% of the fund's net value, ranking as the fifth-largest heavy stock. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 12,000 CNY [2] - Guodu Innovation Drive (002020) was established on December 28, 2015, with a latest scale of 10.7923 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 30.9%, ranking 3055 out of 8154 in its category; the one-year return is 10.56%, ranking 5766 out of 8046; and since inception, it has incurred a loss of 21.61% [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Guodu Innovation Drive (002020) are Liao Xiaodong, Zhang Xiaolei, and Wang Yi. As of the report, Liao Xiaodong has a tenure of 5 years and 171 days, with a total fund asset size of 22.455 million CNY, achieving a best return of -24.14% and a worst return of -64.72% during his tenure [3] - Zhang Xiaolei has a tenure of 6 years and 321 days, with the same total fund asset size of 22.455 million CNY, achieving a best return of 80.09% and a worst return of -23.54% during his tenure [3] - Wang Yi has a tenure of 4 years and 139 days, with a total fund asset size of 10.7885 million CNY, achieving a best return of 35.82% and a worst return of -31.14% during his tenure [3]