更值得关注的是，在中日航班最密集的上海浦东=大阪关西航线上，原本每天就有30个航班、几乎每半小时就有一班， 本周的航班取消率也已经高达30.1%——239个航班中有72个宣布取消。 有媒体援引航空分析师分析表示，估计有50万张机票已被取消。尚存航班的客座率持续下降，根据航班管家的统计，11 月18日中日航线的客座率环比上周预计下滑12.3个百分点，旅客量环比上周预计下滑10.8%。 当前至少10家中国航空公司提供日本航线免费退改服务，其中也包括总部位于中国香港的国泰航班、香港快运，对12月 31日之前出行的日本机票进行免费退票或者改签。 除了航班取消，有一艘中国始发的邮轮不再停靠日本港口，取消了原定的上岸游览行程。但需要指出的是，相较于两成 中日航班取消，邮轮取消日本之行目前还未出现第二宗案例，更远非行业主流做法。 短期中国赴日人数骤降。本周（11月24日至30日）航班数据显示，从中国到日本的航班取消率持续走高，将在11月27日 达到峰值的21.6%，超过两成航班被取消，为近一个月以来最高值。 12条中日航线已取消所有航班。第三方数据平台航班管家提供给《财经》记者的数据显示，截至11月24日10点，中日定 期 ...

Core Insights - The luxury polar cruise industry is experiencing a significant polarization, with high-end brands like Silversea and Ponant thriving while smaller expedition companies struggle to survive [3][5][11] - The recent bankruptcy of the French polar expedition company Exploris highlights the challenges faced by smaller players in the market, as they are unable to compete with established brands [5][11] - The demand for luxury travel experiences, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, is driving the success of top-tier cruise lines, while budget options are increasingly failing to attract customers [6][9][11] Industry Trends - The luxury hotel market is witnessing a similar K-shaped recovery, where high-end hotels see rising prices while mid-tier options lag behind, reflecting a broader trend in consumer spending [6][9] - The average daily rate for luxury hotels in the U.S. has reached a record $394, significantly higher than mid-tier hotels, indicating a growing divide in the hospitality sector [6] - The global first-class flight ticket bookings have increased by 20% compared to last year, and private jet deliveries are expected to rise by over 7%, further emphasizing the trend towards luxury travel [9] Market Dynamics - The number of Chinese tourists traveling to Antarctica is increasing, with 9,384 visitors expected in the 2023-2024 season, making China the third-largest source of tourists after the U.S. and the U.K. [12][14] - The demographic of Chinese tourists is shifting, with a growing proportion of younger travelers, particularly those born in the 1990s, seeking unique travel experiences [12][14] - Luxury polar cruise companies are adapting to this trend by enhancing their offerings for Chinese tourists, including adding Chinese language support and specialized experiences [12][14] Competitive Landscape - The top-tier polar cruise lines are experiencing strong demand, with flagship cabins selling out months in advance, while smaller companies are forced to offer last-minute discounts to attract customers [11] - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with fewer players able to maintain a foothold, leading to a clearer divide between successful luxury brands and struggling budget options [11][14] - The success of high-end brands is being fueled by the wealth disparity and the willingness of affluent consumers to invest in unique travel experiences, particularly in the polar regions [14]

邮轮行业至少到目前为止似乎未受更广泛的经济不确定性的波及。美国银行的数据显示，受酒店和机票预订下滑拖累，美国家庭今年9月整体旅游 支出下降2%，但在邮轮假期上的平均支出同比增长9%。同时，私属目的地项目的开发（例如开发私属岛屿）也是该行业在疫情后复兴的重要支 柱。 邮轮公司高管表示，年长的Z世代（年近30岁）和千禧一代（1981年至1995年之间出生的人——编者注）正越来越多地选择海上度假，这拉低了 乘客的平均年龄。英国旅行社协会的调查显示，近1/5的25至34岁受访者表示在过去12个月内乘坐过邮轮，这一数字远高于2019年的不足1/20。这 种转变源于大型运营商的精心策划。 吸引新客人，尤其是年轻乘客的最大因素之一是对价值的感知。如今，在邮轮上住一晚相对于在度假村住一晚的"折扣幅度"比2019年更大。这与 时机有关：酒店业从新冠疫情中恢复正常较快，因此能够比邮轮更早开始涨价。 邮轮运营商瞄准年轻乘客还有另一个动机。"他们真正想做的是尽早锁定客户，因为邮轮行业存在极强的品牌忠诚度。"线上邮轮预订平台 CruiseCompete首席执行官鲍勃·莱文斯坦表示。 与此同时，社交媒体网红在邮轮旅游招募新客户方面变得越 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese cruise economy is experiencing a strong recovery after a "V"-shaped rebound, with significant increases in both the number of cruise ships and passenger arrivals in the first three quarters of the year [1][2] - The first "golden decade" of the Chinese cruise industry saw rapid growth, and there are questions about whether the current trends indicate the start of a second "golden decade" [1][2] - The growth logic in the new phase has shifted from scale expansion to structural upgrading and quality improvement, indicating a transition to high-quality development [2][3] Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, 344 cruise ships entered and exited Chinese ports, accommodating 2.05 million passengers, representing year-on-year increases of 17% and 28% respectively [1] - The number of international travelers arriving via Shanghai's cruise port has surged by approximately 77% compared to the same period last year [1] - The first domestically built large cruise ship, "Aidah Magic City," has successfully completed over 140 commercial voyages, carrying more than 530,000 passengers [2] Market Dynamics - The new phase of growth is characterized by a focus on quality and efficiency rather than just scale, with a more diversified industrial ecosystem encompassing six key elements: ship, port, travel, manufacturing, education, and supply [3][4] - Digitalization and green technology are emerging as new engines for development, with cruise companies leveraging big data for targeted marketing and enhancing customer experience through digital means [4][5] Consumer Segmentation - The Chinese cruise market is witnessing a clear segmentation of consumer demographics, with distinct needs emerging among the elderly, Generation Z, and family units [5][6] - The current penetration rate of cruise consumption in China is only 0.08%, significantly lower than North America's 3.65% and Europe's 2%, indicating substantial growth potential [5][6] Challenges and Solutions - The cruise industry faces "bottleneck" issues in upstream design and construction, particularly in core technology and key component supply [7][8] - Solutions include enhancing policy support, fostering technological innovation, and promoting industry collaboration to build a self-sufficient cruise manufacturing ecosystem [7][8] Port Development - Shanghai's Wusongkou International Cruise Port is currently the largest in Asia and fourth globally, with expectations to accommodate 230 cruise ships by 2025 [9][10] - To enhance "home port stickiness," the port must evolve from a transit point to a "city living room," integrating more with urban life and tourism [9][10] - Improving the port's infrastructure and service capabilities is essential to transform the "transit economy" into a "stay economy," thereby increasing visitor engagement and satisfaction [10][11]

上海工程技术大学管理学院副院长、上海国际邮轮经济研究中心副主任叶欣梁在解读《2025中国邮轮产 业发展报告》时表示，中国邮轮业正经历从规模复苏到高质量发展的关键期，2025年正是中国邮轮业承 前启后的转折点。 皇家加勒比集团总裁兼首席执行官杰森·利伯蒂(Jason Liberty)表示："随着消费需求不断释放，中国邮轮 市场迎来崭新的篇章，行业发展动能不断积累。上海、天津、广州等母港现代化升级步伐加快，签证和 港口通关便利化政策的红利也持续释放，这些积极信号构成了中国邮轮业前行的强劲东风，让我们对行 业前景充满信心。" 地中海邮轮自2016年起陆续将旗下多艘高品质邮轮部署到中国并开启母港航线的运营，2025年，该公司 推出更多专为中国游客打造的航线。 (第八届进博会)全球邮轮市场V形反弹 中国市场贡献过半亚洲增量 中新社上海11月9日电 (记者 姜煜 李佳佳)《2025中国邮轮产业发展报告》9日在"2025上海邮轮经济发展 论坛"上发布。该报告基于2024年至2025年全球及中国邮轮产业数据指出，全球邮轮市场V形反弹，中 国市场贡献超半数亚洲增量，中国本土品牌市场占有率飙升至40%。 中国交通运输协会邮轮游艇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for U.S. vessels as a countermeasure against the U.S. imposing port fees on Chinese ships, effective from October 14, 2025 [2][20]. Group 1: Special Port Fee Details - The special port fee will apply to any vessel with over 25% U.S. ownership or flying the U.S. flag, regardless of the registration of the shipowner or operator [3][4]. - The fee will be charged per voyage based on net tonnage, starting at 400 RMB per net ton in 2025 and increasing to 1120 RMB by 2028 [4]. - For example, the Royal Caribbean's Spectrum of the Seas, with a net tonnage of 168,000 tons, could incur a maximum fee of approximately 67.36 million RMB per voyage [6]. Group 2: Impact on Royal Caribbean - The new fee structure could lead to an additional cost of around 1000 RMB per passenger for the Spectrum of the Seas, assuming it operates at full capacity for 76 voyages in a year [8][12]. - The policy includes safeguards, limiting the maximum fee to five voyages per year for each vessel, and only charging once for multiple port calls on the same voyage [7]. - The special port fee is expected to increase by 60% after October 2026, adding further financial pressure on Royal Caribbean [14]. Group 3: Broader Industry Context - Royal Caribbean faces additional challenges from U.S. tax scrutiny, as the U.S. government is pushing for stricter tax compliance from cruise companies registered abroad [17][21]. - The company is caught in a regulatory squeeze, with significant costs from the Chinese port fee and potential tax liabilities in the U.S. [22]. - The cruise industry is experiencing a complex geopolitical landscape, with the new port fee being part of a broader trend of increasing regulatory pressures [29][43]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Adjusting port calls in response to the new fee could be a complex process, requiring significant logistical changes and advance planning [31][33]. - The operational impact of changing ports is substantial, as it affects scheduling, customer service, and overall operational efficiency [35][37]. - The new fee structure serves as a warning to other U.S.-owned cruise lines that have not yet operated in Chinese ports, highlighting the potential for increased costs in the future [39].

Core Insights - The hotel industry has experienced a significant boost during the summer of 2025, driven by a shift towards quality travel experiences and cultural elements [1][2] - Data from travel platforms indicates a strong demand for quality tourism, with average order prices increasing by 9.9% year-on-year [1] - The resurgence of outbound tourism has led to a rapid recovery in hotel bookings, particularly in popular destinations like Japan and Thailand [3][4] Group 1: Domestic Hotel Trends - Hotels in popular domestic destinations, such as Sanya, reported occupancy rates exceeding 70%, with innovative activities like coral reef observation camps becoming popular [2] - The trend of traveling to events, such as concerts and exhibitions, has surged, with hotel searches around event venues increasing significantly [2] Group 2: Outbound Tourism Developments - Popular outbound destinations for Chinese tourists include Japan, Thailand, and South Korea, with hotel bookings in Okinawa and Jeju Island seeing year-on-year increases of 98% and 44%, respectively [3] - Hotels abroad are adapting to Chinese tourists by offering services in Mandarin and incorporating Chinese cultural elements [3][4] Group 3: Cruise Market Recovery - The cruise market has shown strong recovery, with over 1.37 million travelers passing through Shanghai's cruise port by August 26, marking a 48.71% increase year-on-year [4][5] - Family-oriented travel has become a significant driver of demand, with a notable increase in bookings for family cabins and entertainment facilities on cruise ships [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese cruise industry is experiencing a resurgence following the full restoration of international cruise transportation in 2023, with significant demand being released, particularly from major ports like Shanghai and Tianjin, which is expected to drive high-quality development in cultural tourism and high-end manufacturing [1][3][4]. Industry Recovery - The cruise industry in China has gradually returned to a recovery trajectory since the resumption of operations, with significant milestones including the launch of international routes by various cruise lines starting from mid-2022 [3][4]. - The peak season during the Spring Festival in 2023 marked a strong start for the cruise economy, indicating a positive trend for the industry [3]. Economic Outlook - Experts express confidence in the future of China's cruise economy, predicting it will enter a second "golden decade" of rapid development after a period of nurturing [4]. - The cruise economy is referred to as a "waterborne golden industry," with substantial growth observed since the establishment of the homeport market in 2006 [4]. Market Dynamics - Despite challenges such as limited routes and low-price competition, the recent surge in demand has revitalized the industry, with record bookings reported for upcoming cruises [5][6]. - The average age of cruise passengers is decreasing, with a notable increase in the proportion of younger travelers, indicating a shift in market demographics [7]. Policy Support - The recovery of the cruise market is supported by various government policies aimed at facilitating the orderly resumption of international cruise operations and promoting high-quality development [6][10]. - Local governments have introduced specific action plans and support measures to enhance the cruise tourism sector [6]. Infrastructure Development - The introduction of China's first domestically built large cruise ship, "Aida·Magic City," signifies a major advancement in the country's shipbuilding capabilities and the potential for a more robust domestic cruise economy [8][9]. - The ship's specifications highlight China's growing capacity to build complex vessels, which is a milestone in transitioning from a shipbuilding power to a strong shipbuilding nation [8]. Future Directions - Experts suggest enhancing the innovation system within the cruise industry, improving local supply chains, and exploring new tourist destinations to ensure sustainable development [9][10]. - There is a call for establishing modern cruise tourism service clusters that integrate various related services, which could further stimulate the cruise economy [10].

Group 1: Company Performance - Royal Caribbean Group reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with a passenger load factor of 110%, total revenue of $4.5 billion, and a net profit of $1.2 billion, leading to an upward revision of the full-year earnings forecast to between $15.41 and $15.55 per share [1][2] - Carnival Corporation also showed impressive results with Q2 revenue reaching $6.3 billion and a net profit of $565 million, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [2][3] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported Q2 earnings per share of $0.51 and revenue of $2.52 billion, although slightly below expectations, the stock surged by 11.79% in pre-market trading, indicating strong investor confidence [2][3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The global cruise industry is experiencing a "V-shaped recovery," with major players reporting revenues exceeding pre-pandemic levels, indicating a return to positive growth [2][3] - The International Cruise Association forecasts that global cruise passengers will exceed 34.13 million in 2024 and reach 37.7 million in 2025, with further growth expected to 40 million by 2027 [3] - The U.S. cruise market is projected to surpass $17 billion by 2028, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow at an annual rate of 19.6%, becoming a key driver for global cruise industry growth [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The summer cruise season is booming, with global passenger numbers expected to exceed 37.1 million and market size reaching $44.39 billion, particularly driven by a 45% annual growth rate in China [4][5] - Domestic cruise activities in China are thriving, with the Tianjin International Cruise Home Port expecting to host nearly 50 cruise ships and over 100,000 passengers during the summer [5][6] - Cruise companies are innovating their offerings to attract families and children, enhancing onboard and onshore experiences to meet consumer demand for quality and personalization [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianjin International Cruise Homeport is experiencing a significant decline in activity and attractiveness compared to other domestic ports, particularly in the context of the upcoming summer season [1][5]. Group 1: Current Situation of Tianjin Cruise Homeport - The cruise schedule for Tianjin shows a lack of foreign cruise ships, with only two domestic vessels, the Mediterranean and Dream, operating during the peak season [3][4]. - In 2024, the Mediterranean will have 43 voyages in Tianjin, but this number will drastically drop to 16 in 2025, indicating a sharp decline in interest from cruise companies [5][6]. - The absence of international cruise lines like MSC and Royal Caribbean from Tianjin has been noted, reflecting a broader trend of retreat from the port [5][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The post-pandemic market has seen a shift in consumer behavior, with many potential travelers from Beijing lacking passports, which limits their ability to choose cruise travel [11][14]. - The geographical disadvantages of Tianjin, such as longer travel times to destinations compared to southern ports, further hinder its competitiveness [20][22]. - The cruise industry is increasingly focused on profitability, and Tianjin's offerings are perceived as less attractive compared to emerging ports like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [25][26]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Southern ports like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are rapidly developing, with strategic investments and better access to consumer markets, making them more appealing for cruise operations [27][30]. - The rise of new regional stars like Qingdao and Xiamen, which offer shorter travel times and rich tourism resources, poses additional competition for Tianjin [33][34]. - The concept of "middle-income trap" is applied to Tianjin, indicating that while it has resources and policies, it lacks a distinct competitive edge in the cruise market [24][26]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Recommendations - To regain its status, Tianjin should pivot from aiming to be the second-largest cruise homeport to becoming a unique cruise and destination hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [36][37]. - Initiatives such as enhancing incentives for international cruise lines and developing domestic cruise routes could provide new opportunities for growth [35][36]. - The recent launch of the "One Ticket to Explore Dongjiang" plan indicates that Tianjin is not giving up and is seeking innovative strategies to attract visitors [36][38].