Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/24 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 2025/09/25 20 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 9 日 期指：节后首日或偏强震荡为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4640.69 | ↑0.45 | | 6646.2 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4634.4 | ↑0.18 | -6.29 | 445.3 | 32027 | ↓15624 | 52458 | ↓9496 | | IF2511 | 4623 | ↑0.19 | -17.69 | 68.4 | 4927 | ↓304 | 6116 | ↑456 | | IF2512 | 4618 | ↑0.20 | -22.69 | 877 | 63292 | ↓34009 | 153795 | ↓11459 | | IF2603 | 4595.2 | ↑0.24 | -45.49 ...

金融研究 2025年9月30日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：9 月 29 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.9%，报收 3862.53 点；深成指 上涨 2.05%，报收 13479.43 点；创业板指上涨 2.74%，报收 3238.01 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.35%， 报收 1470.41 点。市场成交 21,781 亿元，较前日增加 120 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.84%)， 有色金属(+3.78%)，电力设备(+3.07%)涨幅居前；煤炭(-0.84%)，银行(-0.46%)，社会服务(-0.24%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IC>IM>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,574/201/1,654。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 79、-113、-113、147 亿元，分别变动+507、+161、-254、 股指期货 -414 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 94.03、73.16、10.45 与-3.16 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-9.22%、-7.32%、-1.66%与 0.78%， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0016367) [2] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: Securities Regulatory Permission [2011] No. 1290 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The stock market oscillated upward today, with small and medium - cap stocks rising significantly, mainly driven by Alibaba's positive news which led to the overall upward movement of the science and technology sector. The main contracts of IC and IM index futures corresponding to small and medium - cap indexes both rose by more than 3%. The basis increased significantly, and there was a phenomenon of short - sellers leaving the market considering the open interest. The overall stock index was still running below the previous high. [5] - Today, the total trading volume of the two markets narrowed to about 2.3 trillion yuan. In a market with shrinking volume driven by structural factors, the sustainability of the stock index rebound remains to be seen. It is not advisable to enter the market aggressively to chase the high before the holiday. Considering the previous day's market, there is still optimistic sentiment supporting the short - term market. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate around the previous high central point. The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [5] Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index trended upward. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.02%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 16.7598 billion yuan. In the futures market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume. [3] Important Information Summary - On September 24, at the 2025 Hangzhou Yunqi Conference, Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA reached a cooperation in the Physical AI field. Alibaba Cloud's artificial intelligence platform PAI will integrate NVIDIA's Physical AI software stack, providing enterprise users with full - link platform services such as data pre - processing, simulation data generation, model training and evaluation, robot reinforcement learning, and simulation testing, further shortening the development cycle of applications such as embodied intelligence and assisted driving. [4] - Alibaba Cloud announced the launch of Qwen3 - Max, the largest and most powerful model developed by the Tongyi Qianwen team to date. [4] Index Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Percentage Change (%) | 1.69 | 0.94 | 3.90 | 3.21 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.6745 | 6.2124 | 17.718 | 29.362 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.4218 | - 0.9047 | - 0.4626 | - 3.5404 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.37 | 9.8305 | 25.5972 | 36.5491 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.314 | - 0.3523 | - 0.589 | - 2.7949 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Percentage Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Percentage Change (%) | 1.80 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 5.18 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23267.84 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1675.98 | [7]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-23 一、指数走势 09 月 22 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.22%，收于 3828.58 点，成交额 9418.0 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.67%，收于 13157.97 点，成交额 11796.83 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.69%，成交额 4405.15 亿元，其中开盘价 7457.89，收盘价 7489.48，当日最高价 7489.48，最低价 7418.46； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.76%，成交额 4219.16 亿元，其中开盘价 7182.89，收盘价 7225.13，当日最高价 7225.86，最低价 7143.08； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.46%，成交额 5631.49 亿元，其中开盘价 4512.03，收盘价 4522.61，当日最高价 4523.87，最低价 4487.13； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.43%，成交额 1564.01 亿元，其中开盘价 2911.02，收盘价 2922.18，当日最高价 2929.52，最低价 2901.12。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Category 1. Power Coal - Recorded the daily basis and spread data of power coal from September 15 - 19, 2025, with the basis gradually increasing from -115.4 yuan/ton to -97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 remaining at 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Presented the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 15 - 19, 2025, including the basis of fuel oil and INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - Showed the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of chemical products. The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 15 - 19, 2025 were given, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for multiple chemicals and the inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. [9][11] 3. Black Metals - Displayed the inter - period spreads and inter - commodity spreads of black metals. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided, along with the inter - commodity spreads like the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Recorded the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [28] (2) London Market - Presented the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 19, 2025 [34] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of agricultural products. The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 were shown, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products and the inter - commodity spreads such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - Recorded the basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 15 - 19, 2025 were presented, along with the inter - period spreads of the next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter for different stock indices [51]

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, and the market is now focused on the future interest - rate path and economic data, especially the labor market [1][2][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][2][4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to oscillate around the current level, and the policy guidance signal of the RMB central parity rate needs to be closely watched [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures declined due to the fulfillment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged due to the interest - rate cut cycles in both China and the US [4] - The small - and medium - cap stock index futures are relatively stronger in the short term, with limited downside space [4] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yield of most spot bonds rose. The market is waiting for the central bank's attitude [5] - The new 2Y and 7Y bonds issued last week have been included in the deliverable bonds, but have not significantly affected the futures price [5] Group 4: Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures prices oscillated slightly downward. The near - month contracts have fallen to a relatively appropriate level, but may continue to decline [6][7] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and wait and see, and look for low - buying opportunities in the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [7] Group 5: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation stage after the Fed's interest - rate cut. The market focus is on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and tariff policies [8] - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [9] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price declined due to the Fed's interest - rate decision. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a production reduction due to a mudslide [11] - The trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [11] Zinc - The zinc price was weak. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see for the internal - external reverse arbitrage or sell out - of - the - money call options [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by the market and were weak. The fundamentals have no obvious changes [14][15] Tin - The tin price declined slightly. The supply is tight in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [15][16] Lead - The lead price was in a high - level oscillation. The supply is relatively weak compared to the demand, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillation in the short term [16][17] Group 7: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were weak. The overall steel market is still in the process of inventory reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate after digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut [18] Iron Ore - The iron ore price oscillated around 800. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate based on fundamentals [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented. It is not recommended to short coking coal, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities at low basis [21] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were affected by the news of the increase in the standard of submerged arc furnaces in the metallurgical industry. The short - term price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to try long positions [22] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price fell slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term, and the probability of a short - term correction has increased [24][25] LPG - The LPG price declined. The supply is controllable, and the demand is lack of clear drivers, so it is expected to oscillate [25][26] PTA - PX - The PX - PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The polyester demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the PTA processing fee repair is limited [27][28][29] Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [29][30] PP - The PP price is supported by the cost side, but the demand is in the "peak season without peak" situation. The downward space is limited, and a rebound may occur if the device shutdown increases [31][32] PE - The PE price is in a weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upward drivers and limited downward space, and is expected to oscillate [34][35] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices are weak, with high inventory and low valuation. They are expected to oscillate and follow the cost side [36][37] Fuel Oil - It is recommended to short the cracking profit of fuel oil. The export volume is decreasing, and the demand is stable [37][38] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by the increase in supply and the inability to release demand. The inventory structure is improving. It may have a last chance to rise this year [39] Rubber and 20 - Rubber - The rubber prices fell. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is stable in the short term. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [40][41][42] Group 9: Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The soda ash price is under pressure due to the high - level supply expectation. The demand is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [43] Glass - The glass price lacks a clear trend. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand in the near term, and factors such as supply ignition and coal price need to be followed [44][45] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak in the spot market. The downstream demand is stable, and the supply fluctuates due to maintenance [46] Group 10: Pulp - The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The macro - level interest - rate cut has a positive impact, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers [46][47] Group 11: Propylene - The propylene price declined. The supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price followed the decline of PP [49][50] Group 12: Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The live pig price declined. The supply is still high in September, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51] Oilseeds - The soybean market is affected by Sino - US negotiations. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the downstream demand is stable [51][53] Vegetable Oils - The vegetable oil prices declined due to the uncertainty of the US bio - fuel policy. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54] Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 futures price rebounded slightly. The new - season soybean price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [54] Corn and Starch - The corn and starch prices are expected to be weak as new grains are gradually coming onto the market [53][56]