| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度黄峪参考 发布日期:2025/ | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | 股指 | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好, 股指或继续偏 强运行。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 空间。 201 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,金价短期料偏强运行。 | | | 白银 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,支撑贵金属,银价短期 或偏强运行。 | | | 국미 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | | | GD | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 价震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面偏弱施压价格,但几内亚正值雨 | | | 国化品 | | 季,铝土 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 08 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌互现。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2800 股飘红，今日成交 2.71 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.39%，深成指涨 0.26%， 创业板指跌 0.76%。美联储会议表态偏鸽，市场计价年内多次降息，A 股同 | | | | 样受益。此外，上海调整住房限购政策、公积金贷款政策和商业住房贷款利 | | | | 率定价机制，扩大潜在购房需求，地产银行板块上涨。此前，中共中央办公 | | | 股指 | 厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度 | 震荡 | | | 正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策， | | | | 尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未 | | | | 来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集资金，推出更多普惠型财政支持方案将 | | | | 成为拉动我国通胀环境企稳回升的一条重要路径。流动性行情预计仍将持 | | | ...

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股指上涨波动加大，国债 空头或将持续 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F0310 投资咨询号：Z0021210 - - 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 金融期货策略建议 股指策略建议 风险提示：资金流向及投资者情绪边际变化所带来的波动风险 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 股指走势回顾：上周A股市场延续量价齐升态势，全周主要涨幅集中于周三与周五两个交易日。从风格表现看，上周 各主要指数普遍上涨，周度涨幅约 %左右，其中双创板块（创业板、科创板）及北证 领涨，科创 单周涨幅超 %。成交活跃度显著提升，两市日均成交额约 . 万亿元，较前一周环比增长 %。核心宽基指数周度表现方面： 沪深 上涨 . %，中证 上涨 . %，中证 上涨 . %。 核心观点：短期来看，市场做多动能仍保持强劲态势，流动性宽松环境有望延续，资金面预计维持充裕状态。随着市 场情绪持续升温，投资者入市积极性显著提升，增量资金持续流入将为市场运行提供重要支撑。此外，政策层面或将 ...

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2025年8月22日 星期五 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：8 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 21 3771.1 | | | 点；深成指 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.06%，报收 11919.76 点；创业板指下跌 0.47%，报收 2595.47 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.09%， | | | | | | 报收 1149.15 点。市场成交 24,603 亿元，较前日增加 119 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+1.5%)， | | | | | | | 石油石化(+1.39%)，美容护理(+0.98%)涨幅居前；机械设备(-1.08%)，电力设备(-0.98%)，综合 | | | | | | | (-0.73%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,169/164/3,087。沪深两 | | | | | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-209、-308、56、461 亿元，分 ...

Group 1: Index Movements - On August 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to close at 3766.21 points with a trading volume of 1017.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to close at 11926.74 points with a trading volume of 1390.734 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% with a trading volume of 517.521 billion yuan, opening at 7212.97, closing at 7305.46, with a high of 7305.46 and a low of 7166.99 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.09% with a trading volume of 409.671 billion yuan, opening at 6623.61, closing at 6728.07, with a high of 6728.07 and a low of 6598.55 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 62.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 72.76 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 48.03 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 34.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 61.01, IM01 was - 110.72, IM02 was - 226.59, IM03 was - 387.11 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 61.45, IC01 was - 101.64, IC02 was - 192.4, IC03 was - 320.35 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 9.18, IF01 was - 15.65, IF02 was - 28.67, IF03 was - 49.83 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.76, IH01 was 0.74, IH02 was 3.57, IH03 was 5.75 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [26][27]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [29]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [28].

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 周三早盘 A 股震荡回落，午后人工智能板块带动反弹，无视隔夜美股及亚太 股指下跌，股指期货大涨呈逼空态势，与碳酸锂跌停形成反差。资金面宽松 是主因：央行宽松政策下，资金为求回报流入股期市场；居民财富管理意识 提升、房地产吸引力下降，部分资金转向金融领域，充实股市资金池。市场普 遍看涨形成正向反馈—投资者买入推升价格，价格上涨又吸引更多资金入场， 放大涨幅，这种情绪与信心转变成为股指期货 IM、IC 逼空行情的重要心理基 础。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多 国债 保持观望 研究咨询部 2025-08-21 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司期货交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 核心观点： 以前期高点作为参考，如果后续收益率调整高度不能突破前高（以 30 年国债 活跃券 2500002 前高 2.06%为例），那么权益市场的强势表现对债市冲击最 猛烈的时刻很可能已经过去；同时债市还迎来了税期过后资金面重回宽松以 及基金赎回压力经历前期释放而有所缓解的边际利好 ...

1 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-21） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，港口库存小幅回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处 | | | | | 于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]