抢装或推升锂价加速上涨，金铜有望继续走强 核心观点： [Table_Summary] 锂：出口退税退坡或将带来抢装浪潮，锂矿板块主升来临。1）周度库 存转为累库。本周 SMM 显示累库 337 吨，库存转折点已经出现，但市 场理解为由于正极厂检修带来需求的下滑，修复后将会恢复去库趋势。 2）锂电池等产品出口退税率下滑或带来新一轮抢装潮。财政部 26 年 1 月 9 日发文称，锂电产品出口退税率 26 年 4 月 1 日从 9%下调到 6%，27 年 1 月 1 日下调到 0%。预计 26 年抢装力度大于 25 年，保守 估计约增加 4-5 万吨的碳酸锂需求量，边际上极大增强了供应紧张的程 度。此外，抢装带来的需求直接平滑淡季预期。 3）锂矿板块将迎来 利润和估值的戴维斯双击。锂资源属性大幅强化，看好业绩+估值戴维 斯双击的β行情。相关标的：国城矿业；未覆盖标的：中矿资源、大 中矿业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盛新锂能、盐湖股份、雅化集团、永 兴材料等。 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 金：非农再度下修，关注美洲地缘风险扩散。1）美国非农再度下修， 但失业率意外回落。美国 12 月季调后非 ...

宏观层面，周五美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国12月就业增长放缓幅度超预期，但失业率下降，这支持 了美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。美国股市全线走强，其中科技股板块表现尤为强劲，费城半导体指 数上涨2.7%，创历史新高。 产业层面，随着人工智能产业的飞速发展及能源转型推进，铜价掀起一股涨热潮。进入2026年，市场对 未来需求增长的预期再度升温。当前，全球主要铜矿生产中断引发的供应紧张担忧持续，智利铜业委员 会数据显示，11月智利铜产量下降，主要因智利国家矿业公司（Codelco）和埃斯孔迪达铜矿产量下 滑。 此外，市场消息称，日本泛太平洋铜业将2026年日本铜溢价上调至创纪录的330美元/吨，是2025年溢价 88美元的三倍，凸显当前市场对铜的需求预期强劲。 长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：伦铜库存续降及日本铜溢价飙升至新高提振，隔周伦铜涨超2%；人工智 能与能源转型推动铜价涨热潮，全球矿业押注炒热行情，今现铜或大涨。 【铜期货市场】伦铜库存续降及日本铜溢价飙升至新高提振，隔周伦铜高位探涨；最新收盘报价12966 美元/吨，收涨264美元，涨幅2.07%，成交量27067手减少8225手，持仓量32536 ...

然而，高盛同时强调称，13,000美元/吨以上难以长期维持，并维持其2026年四季度11,200美元/吨的 LME铜价谨慎看跌预测不变。 1月11日，中信建投（601066）周君芝、田雨侬发表研报认为，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强 劲，定价关键战略资源安全以及美国超预期货币宽松。中信建投认为，有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩 序更替，所以铜必将接力金银，铜的行情仍未结束，13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔 率。 当前微软、谷歌、亚马逊以及Facebook母公司Meta正在大举建设的大型AI数据中心的电力传输与AI算 力集群铜缆高速互联系统、散热系统以及高性能网络设备、数据中心存储设备等高度依赖铜。 这种结构性的新增需求正逐步成为铜市场新的需求增长引擎。 在铜价从2025年11月底不足11,000美元/吨一路拉升、并于1月6日触及13,387.50美元/吨的历史高位后， 高盛这家华尔街金融巨头不得不重新校准短期路径：高盛将2026年上半年铜价预测从11,525美元/吨显著 上调至12,750美元/吨，理由是"稀缺溢价"与囤货性质正在被市场重新定价——尤其是美国以外地区(ex- US)库存覆盖 ...

本周，全球矿业版图在东西方呈现出一幅清晰的"二元"图景：中国矿业在内，凭借创纪录的业绩、突破性的资源发现与系统性的生态治理，展现出"攻 守兼备"的成熟姿态；而国际市场则继续在关键矿产的供应链重组与资源国的政策变局中激烈博弈。战略金属的脉动，从未如此紧密地牵动着国家竞争 与产业转型的神经。 一、 国内纵深：业绩、资源与治理的"三重奏" 本周，中国矿业领域交出三份分量十足的"答卷"，共同勾勒出行业发展的清晰路径。 1、紫金矿业发布创纪录年度业绩 行业龙头紫金矿业以一份突破历史的年度报告，为行业的景气度提供了最有力的注脚。其全年营收稳居2934亿元高位，而象征核心盈利能力的归母净利 润指针，最终定格于211.19亿元，创下自上市以来的最佳纪录。这份答卷的核心支撑，是其全球化运营结出的硕果：刚果（金）的卡莫阿铜矿、西藏的 巨龙铜矿与塞尔维亚的佩吉铜金矿三大世界级项目协同发力，驱动其年度矿产铜产量跨越101万吨大关，跃升为全球增长最快的铜业巨头之一。这标志 着中国矿企已从资源获取阶段，成功迈入全球化高效运营与价值创造的新周期。 2、青藏高原新增铜资源量公布 当企业在市场高歌猛进时，地质勘探者在青藏高原的深部取得了战略性 ...

据知情人士透露，如果力拓(RIO.US)与嘉能可的合并谈判取得成功，力拓对保留嘉能可庞大的煤炭业务 持开放态度。 此举将意味着力拓策略的重大转变，该公司曾在2018年同意出售其最后一批煤矿。嘉能可是全球最大的 煤炭生产商之一，在力拓等竞争对手因投资者压力而撤出煤炭领域时，嘉能可仍加倍押注于这种污染最 严重的燃料。 力拓和嘉能可周四晚间表示，双方正就部分或全部业务的潜在合并进行讨论。这是席卷矿业的交易浪潮 中最新的动态，其主要驱动力是全球最大的生产商们正寻求扩大铜业务规模。嘉能可拥有规模庞大且极 具吸引力的铜资产，但其煤炭业务长期以来一直被视为潜在收购者的阻碍。 知情人士表示，任何交易的结构和范围仍在讨论中，但正在考虑的关键方案之一是全面收购嘉能可，包 括其煤炭业务。 目前尚未做出最终决定，如果交易成功，力拓也可以选择在晚些时候剥离煤炭业务。 力拓和嘉能可的代表均拒绝置评。 力拓重返煤炭领域的意愿呼应了商业和政治气候的广泛逆转，尤其是在美国总统特朗普倡导抵制绿色政 策的背景下。 力拓和嘉能可此前曾在2024年就合并进行过讨论，但由于未能就估值等问题达成一致，谈判最终破裂。 自那以后，铜价飙升至历史新高，嘉能可一 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Cangge Mining Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Cangge Mining - **Industry**: Lithium and Potash Mining Key Points and Arguments Project Progress and Production Guidance - The Marito Salt Lake Phase I project is progressing as expected, with civil and steel structure works completed at 70%-80% [2][3] - The expected equity output for 2026 is between 4,500 to 6,000 tons, corresponding to a salt lake output of 20,000 to 25,000 tons [2][3] - The total investment for the project has been reduced to 2.8 to 3 billion yuan, with lithium carbonate investment costs around 600 million yuan per ton and production costs controlled under 30,000 yuan per ton, which is nearly 10,000 yuan lower than peers [2][4] Strategic Partnerships and Resource Development - The company is actively communicating with industrial funds and Sansteel Group to integrate the Mami Cuo Fund into the listed company system for consolidated reporting, although no clear timeline is set [2][5] - Cangge Mining indirectly holds a 21% stake in Guoneng Mining and plans to participate in the development of the Jide Chaka (planned 70,000 tons) and Longmucuo (planned 60,000 tons) salt lakes [2][6] Resource Expansion and Environmental Considerations - The company plans to inject resources from the Lagocuo and Mami Cuo salt lakes into the listed company to expand resource reserves and production capacity, with no specific timeline yet [2][7] - The company employs an adsorption-membrane coupling process for lithium extraction, minimizing ecological damage and achieving zero water consumption through self-produced fresh water [4] Production Recovery and Future Capacity - The production at the Chaka Salt Lake has returned to normal, with production guidance for potassium and lithium products in 2026 similar to previous years [2][7] - The company aims to explore further capacity enhancement and has initiated a new 1.5 million tons industrial salt project to recover sodium chloride, which meets environmental standards [2][8] Market Dynamics and Pricing Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing volatility, with prices driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [11][12] - The expected price range for lithium carbonate is between 100,000 to 120,000 yuan, with the company maintaining a cautious inventory strategy [12] - The company plans to sell 70% of its products through long-term contracts and 30% through spot pricing, using industry-standard pricing for settlements [12] Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Development - The company has conducted extensive market research in South America but has not made investments due to high prices and geopolitical risks [13] - The development of the Laos potash mine is a core focus, with plans to construct a 2 million tons potassium chloride facility in two phases [15][16] Financial Health and Future Plans - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with low debt and good cash flow, supporting a stable dividend policy [27][28] - Future capital expenditures will focus on the Mami Cuo 50,000 tons project and the 200,000 tons potash project, with a cautious approach to new resource acquisitions [22][23] Operational Efficiency Improvements - Post-acquisition by Zijin Group, operational efficiency has improved through refined management practices and cost control measures [24][28] Conclusion - Cangge Mining is strategically positioned in the lithium and potash markets, with ongoing projects and a focus on sustainable practices. The company is navigating market volatility while planning for future growth and resource development.

中矿资源 20260106 摘要 中矿资源计划复产透锂长石，预计短期内释放产能，并持续进行锂矿增 储，目前总储量已接近 300 万吨碳酸锂当量，确保满足未来生产需求。 比吉塔锂矿通过技术改造和光伏配套设施建设显著降低成本，目前锂辉 石到港成本约为 500 美元/吨，含税完全成本降至 7 万元/吨，未来将继 续技改冶炼厂和矿山端以进一步降本。 公司计划在津巴布韦建设 6.5 万吨单水硫酸锂工厂，预计 2027 年三季 度投产，投资额不超过 3 亿美元，回收期约 2-3 年，旨在应对当地政策 变化和降低综合成本。 滩口矿山复产计划正在推进中，预计周期约半年，在锂价上涨至 1,500 美元/吨以上后，该项目具备可行性，但目前尚未有扩产计划。 中矿资源认为锂市场正经历基本面反转，2026-2027 年供给增速放缓， 而储能和动力电池需求乐观，公司将继续做好相关工作，不受价格波动 影响。 公司计划完成一两个并购项目，重点关注关键金属如铷、铯、钽等，以 及与伟晶岩相关的小金属和锂，同时关注铜和金，但会谨慎选择合适项 目。 赞比亚铜矿项目进展顺利，预计 2025 年 7 月底开始投料，目标产量为 1 万吨铜，年底或 202 ...

另外，该行料铜行业供需格局持续偏紧。全球铜矿资本开支持续下行，加上资源贫化及矿产国政策不确 定性，形成长期供应约束。需求方面，传统领域展现韧性，AI数据中心等产业高速发展亦带来持续新 增需求。2026年铜供需格局向好，加上美联储流动性宽松预期，共同推动铜价稳步上行。 银河证券发布研报称，首次覆盖五矿资源(01208)，予"推荐"评级;以当前港汇计，预计公司2025至27年 营业收入分别达483亿、645亿及687亿港元，归母净利润达56亿、104亿及121亿港元。该行认为公司矿 山资源优质，旗下三大铜矿产能持续上升，成长路径清晰，而且有显著成本优化空间。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研报称，首次覆盖五矿资源(01208)，予"推荐"评级; 以当前港汇计， 预计公司2025至27年营业收入分别达483亿、645亿及687亿港元，归母净利润达56亿、104亿及121亿港 元。该行认为公司矿山资源优质，旗下三大铜矿产能持续上升，成长路径清晰，而且有显著成本优化空 间。 另外，该行料铜行业供需格局持续偏紧。全球铜矿资本开支持续下行，加上资源贫化及矿产国政策不确 定性，形成长期供应约束。需求方面，传统领域展现韧性，AI数据中心等产业高速发展亦带来持续新 增需求。2026年铜供需格局向好，加上美联储流动性宽松预期，共同推动铜价稳步上行。 ...

Group 1: AI and Technology Stocks - Wall Street strategists are currently dismissing concerns about an AI bubble, with predictions that technology stocks will lead the market until 2030, potentially pushing the S&P 500 index to between 10,000 and 13,000 points by then [1] - UBS strategists forecast the S&P 500 index to rise to 7,700 points by the end of next year, attributing market growth to earnings rather than valuation bubbles [1] - Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, also predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 points next year, citing factors such as the recently passed tax reform and the AI boom [1] Group 2: AI Sector Volatility - The AI sector is expected to experience increased volatility by 2026, as major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple approach valuation ceilings, raising market expectations for performance and growth [2] - A few leading tech companies now account for 30-40% of the Nasdaq's market value, which is significant compared to the US annual GDP, indicating structural concentration risks [2] - Despite short-term pressures, long-term capital investment in AI across computing power, software, and applications is expected to continue, with market dynamics heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market experienced significant volatility, with prices rising by 6% to nearly $84 per ounce before dropping over 3%, influenced by rumors of a major bank facing margin calls [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices was driven more by sentiment and leveraged trading rather than fundamental changes, indicating a potential end to the recent rally [3] - The overall precious metals market is entering a high-volatility phase, with a shift from a "buy the dip" mentality to a focus on risk and market revaluation [3] Group 4: Copper Price Surge - International copper prices reached a historic high of $12,960 per ton, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 41%, driven by supply-demand dynamics and supportive monetary policy [5] - Major copper producers are lowering production forecasts due to mine accidents and declining ore grades, while demand is surging from energy transitions and AI-driven data center construction [5] - By 2050, demand for copper in AI data center electrical wiring is projected to increase sixfold, reaching approximately 3 million tons annually [5] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The copper market is expected to enter a long-term bullish phase due to ongoing demand from AI servers, electric vehicles, and high-speed communications, while supply constraints persist [6] - The focus in the copper industry is shifting from cost competition to performance and technology, with leading companies likely to maintain profitability and benefit from electronic industry upgrades [6] - Global economic recovery expectations are identified as a primary driver for rising copper prices, although excessive price increases could negatively impact global industrial development [7]