基本面方面，供应端，现有锌价利润刺激矿端投产，增量主要集中在国内。火烧云项目成为影响锌市供 需结构的关键因素，内外原料环境进一步分化，国内冶炼增量潜力大于海外。12月国内部分锌矿山开展 冬季常规检修，锌精矿加工费持续低位，国产矿供应紧张，冶炼厂抢购意愿强烈，部分市场参与者预计 下月国内锌矿加工费将进一步下行。预计2026年一季度TC博弈阶段，不排除出现超预期减产，这或成 为推动锌价上行的催化剂。需求端，1月国内终端企业赶工交付，锌需求有增量预期，沪锌社库连续七 周下降。截至12月31日，上期所库存数据显示，沪锌周度库存续降3170吨至69793吨，创4个月新低，为 锌价提供支撑。但终端消费表现平淡，锌锭出口窗口或偶有开启，进口窗口开启难度较大，且国内地产 疲软制约镀锌、压铸锌消费，目前增长仍依赖外销订单。海外需求在降息预期及基建投资支撑下有望温 和复苏。今日现货市场成交温和上升，持货商高报升水出货，下游按需入场，交投平稳，整体活跃度一 般。 综合来看，锌价反弹仍存压力，短期或仍受宏观面主导，预计沪锌价格核心运行区间在23000 - 24200 元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-566 ...

【ccmn.cn摘要】降息预期重燃叠加油价大涨推动，隔夜伦锌收涨1.2%；沪锌供应收缩预期增强，社库 持续去化，现货升水及下游逢低补库增多，今现锌或上涨。 基本面方面，沪锌供应收缩预期增强。国内11月锌精矿产量31.14万吨，较10月减少1.94万吨，北方部分 矿山进入冬季减产阶段。同时，内外比价不佳使锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减。11月后，冶炼厂有原 料备货需求，对国产矿抢购情绪高涨，推动锌矿加工费快速下调。世界金属统计局（WBMS）最新报 告显示，2025年10月，全球锌板产量119.28万吨，消费量121.96万吨，供应短缺2.67万吨。库存上，国 内锌锭库存持续下降，上期所数据显示，12月12日当周，沪锌库存继续减少，周度降幅达12.34%，降 至三个半月以来最低位。不过，12月17日起国内天津启动环保预警，车辆运输受限，镀锌企业生产将受 影响，拖累沪锌走势，但整体沪锌下方支撑较强。现货市场方面，尽管终端处于淡季、现货消费一般， 但持货商挺价，社库持续去化，现货升水且下游逢低补库增多。此外，现货加工费持续下跌，炼厂亏损 扩大，供应持续收缩预期将减缓锌价调整节奏与空间。 综合来看，短期预计今日现货锌价呈 ...

锌：消费转淡 上方压力仍存 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 181/181/181 第二章 市场数据 87/87/87 第三章 基本面数据 文 字 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 基 础 色 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，近期北方矿山逐步进入季节性停产，国内冶炼厂虽有减产，但锌精矿短缺格局未改，锌精矿加工费继续下调。本周锌精矿进口亏损继续扩大，冶炼厂以 采购国产锌矿为主，周内进口锌精矿市场交投略显安静。据了解，目前普通锌精矿的报价大多 ...

有色金属周报-锌 供给端收缩预期较强，锌价下方支撑稳固 2025年12月2日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，有色上 | | | | | 方压力有所减弱。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低300元/金属吨至 | | | | | 2050元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降11.8美元/干吨至 | | | | | 61.25美元/干吨，预计12月TC报价延续跌势。近期 | | | | | Antamina锌矿招标结果低于30美元/干吨，招标矿量1万吨， | 宏观情绪有所改善，矿端持续偏 | | | | | 紧，TC易跌难涨，部分炼厂已 | | | | 1月份装期；另有港口锌矿差牌子成交于60-70美元/干吨附 | 有检修安排，市场对炼厂后续产 | | | | 近，货量1万吨左右；Gamsberg锌矿报盘同样降至60美元/ | 量存减产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Some high - cost smelters have turned to small losses. Although some smelters are sprinting for the annual task at the end of the year and new production capacity is put into operation, the smelting profit is narrowing and some smelters are actively reducing production due to lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November may be lower than expected. The domestic zinc consumption has entered the off - season. Although there is an expected reduction in supply, there are large differences in the expected export volume. In the short term, Shanghai zinc still has support. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ratio on refined zinc exports. If the export volume is lower than expected, the domestic social inventory may accumulate again [4]. - Trading strategies include going long at low prices on a light - position basis for single - side trading and holding the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: - **Mine end**: Domestic zinc concentrate is still in short supply this week. The processing fees of domestic zinc concentrates in many places continue to decline, with a reduction range of 150 - 300 yuan/metal ton. The loss of imported zinc concentrates has been repaired, and the trading volume in the imported zinc concentrate market has increased recently, but the processing fee continues to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price is reduced by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [4]. - **Smelting end**: The continuous decline of zinc concentrate TC has further compressed the profits of domestic smelters. Some smelters in Northwest and Central China have actively reduced their operating rates due to losses or lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc supply in November may be lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the domestic export volume and frequency [4]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 15.27 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons compared with November 13 and a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with November 17 [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Go long at low prices on a light - position basis. Be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds on zinc prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3.2 Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some data item names such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, etc. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and domestic production**: From January to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate production is 829.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.37 tons or 7.71%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production is 109.76 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.75 tons or 13.14%. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate production is 33.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 32.39 tons [28]. - **Raw material inventory**: As of October, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is 22.1 days, an increase of 5.44 days compared with the same period last year, but it has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [28]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the high demand for zinc ore from smelters, but the loss of imported zinc ore in October continued to expand compared with September. Domestic smelters actively snapped up domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones, and the overall spot trading of imported zinc ore was light. It is expected that the imported zinc ore volume in October may have no room for further increase [30]. - From January to September, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate volume is 400.8 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September 2025, the imported zinc concentrate volume is 50.54 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (3.8 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94% [38]. 3.3.3 Zinc Ore Processing Fee - In November, the monthly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is 3000 yuan/ton. On November 21, the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is reduced by 250 yuan to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [46]. - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 5300 yuan/ton, and the production loss of domestic smelters is about 1420 yuan/ton (excluding by - product benefits). With by - product benefits, smelters have a profit of about 500 yuan/ton [47]. 3.3.4 Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Production - **Global**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc production is 914.82 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 tons or 0.14%; the global refined zinc consumption is 896.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc accumulatively has a surplus of 17.99 tons. In August, the global refined zinc production is 122.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%, and the demand is 117.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, with a surplus of 4.79 tons [51]. - **Domestic**: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises is 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises is 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; that of medium - scale enterprises is 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; and that of small - scale enterprises is 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The SMM China refined zinc production in October increases by 2.85% month - on - month to 61.72 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November will be 61.14 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93% [54][55]. 3.3.5 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September, the cumulative refined zinc import is 25.82 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September 2025, the refined zinc import is 2.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The refined zinc export in September is 0.25 tons, with a net import of 2.02 tons. The main import countries in September are Kazakhstan, Iran, and Australia. The export mainly goes to Southeast Asian countries, and the export volume increases significantly with the opening of the export spot window [58]. - It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in October will still increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the imported zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may slightly increase month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation [59].

Group 1: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Zinc ore supply is tightening marginally, with domestic zinc concentrate production in October at 330,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that global zinc ore production in August was 1,097,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are actively purchasing local ore due to a significant drop in processing fees, which fell to 2,600 yuan per metal ton, down 1,300 yuan from August's peak [2] Group 2: Refined Zinc Production - Global refined zinc production in August was 1,227,000 tons, with a monthly surplus of 47,900 tons [3] - Domestic refined zinc production in October was 617,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The tightening zinc ore supply may lead to a slight reduction in refined zinc production as smelting plants face profit pressures [3] Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall demand from downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with some replenishment observed in mid-October when zinc prices fell [4] - However, the rising zinc prices in November may suppress downstream demand, particularly in the galvanized pipe sector due to weak steel prices and pressures in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Orders in sectors like power transmission and photovoltaic supports have shown resilience, while environmental factors may impact operational rates as winter approaches [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment requires attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and precious metal trends affecting zinc prices [4] - Despite a lack of significant tightness in the market, the marginal changes in supply dynamics are expected to provide support for zinc prices [4] - Domestic inventories are slowly declining, and the current market sentiment may weaken, leading to potential volatility in zinc prices [4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The bearish logic for zinc prices in 2025 was due to the rapid increase in domestic smelting supply after the recovery of mine supply. After 10 months, the zinc price dropped from a high of 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton. Now, although the domestic supply pressure remains, fundamental factors have changed marginally, and the decline in zinc prices may have ended [1][6][39] Group 2: Domestic Mine Supply Falling Short of Expectations - From January to September, the cumulative output of zinc concentrate was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. In October, production is expected to decline by about 15,000 tons to around 300,000 tons. With high-altitude mines entering the shutdown cycle in the fourth quarter, domestic mine supply growth expectations have basically failed [7] - Due to the continuous strong overseas and weak domestic situation, the cost - performance of imported mines is low. As winter storage approaches and smelter raw material inventories decline, domestic mine TC has started to fall, showing a marginal positive factor [7] - As of the end of September, smelter raw material inventories had decreased by 15,000 tons from the peak, and the number of available days had decreased by 3 days [7] Group 3: Overseas Deficit to be Filled by China - From January to the third quarter, overseas refined zinc production totaled 5.132 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The annual output is expected to be 6.836 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. Low long - term contract prices and high energy costs have inhibited overseas smelter production enthusiasm [15] - LME inventory has dropped from a high of 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 40,000 tons. The continuous decline in inventory along with rising premiums indicates real consumption. The long - standing strong overseas and weak domestic pattern has opened the window for Chinese refined zinc exports, which will significantly relieve China's supply pressure [15][17] Group 4: Consumption Exceeding Expectations - Apparent consumption has been boosted by the expansion of integrated and processing enterprises. The zinc alloy production capacity of 53 major smelters in China is 2.06 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total zinc smelting capacity. In 2024, the zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 1.099 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. If social inventory accumulates to 200,000 tons, the year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption can reach about 5.9%. If inventory reduction occurs around November, it will be a positive factor [24] - In terms of actual consumption, exports and domestic demand are resilient. Real estate drags zinc consumption by 2.5% - 3%. Infrastructure investment has a 3.4% cumulative year - on - year growth from January to September 2025, with grid investment growing at 14%. The investment in railway, ship, aerospace transportation, etc., is strong, and it is estimated that this sector, combined with infrastructure, will drive consumption growth of 3.5% - 5%. Automobiles, "two heavy and two new" industries, and exports also contribute to consumption growth. The actual consumption growth rate of zinc for the whole year is estimated to reach about 5%, and the apparent consumption may reach over 7% [28][29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bearish on zinc (ZN) [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in Q3 2025, but there are significant differences among officials. The short - term interest - rate cut path is uncertain. In the medium - to - long - term, the global monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will support the non - ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, China's economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [1][3][110] - The current domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Demand is also mediocre. The supply - surplus pattern of zinc fundamentals is expected to continue, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices. However, the downside space of zinc is limited. The Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and the expected global liquidity loosening support the non - ferrous metals sector, and the waiting - to - be - repaired internal - external price ratio also limits the lower limit of SHFE zinc. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move down slightly with small fluctuations in Q4 [5][111][113] - Unilateral trading has low cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to short - allocation opportunities within the sector. The contango/backwardation spread maintains the reverse - arbitrage logic, but the space is limited. In addition, for internal - external trading, pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities when the internal inventory is transferred overseas [2][113] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend Review**: In Q3 2025, the prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed a divergent trend. SHFE zinc showed an inverted "V" shape, while LME zinc oscillated upwards. The price fluctuations were affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, labor strikes at refineries, and inventory trends [6] - **Spread and Premium/Discount Changes**: In June 2025, the zinc social inventory started to accumulate, and the basis was quickly adjusted downwards, turning into a discount at the end of July. As of September 22, the average spot premium/discount in Shanghai dropped to - 60 yuan/ton. The domestic basis is at a low level in recent years, while the LME basis is at a high level. In the future, the domestic spot is likely to maintain a discount pattern. Pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.2 Macro Aspects - **US**: The interest - rate cut cycle restarted, but there are differences among Fed officials, and the interest - rate cut pace may be cautious. In the short - term, the interest - rate cut is in line with market expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to promote global liquidity release and support the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the US economic recession probability still exists as the non - farm payroll data was disappointing [18][19][21] - **China**: In Q3, economic data declined significantly. In August, investment, consumption, and production data all declined. Economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [32][34][38] 3.3 Fundamental Overview - **Raw Material End**: - Global zinc ore supply has recovered significantly. In 2025, overseas zinc ore production increased year - on - year, and in Q4, overseas mines may increase production to meet the annual targets. Domestic zinc concentrate production is stable, but northern mines will have seasonal maintenance at the end of Q4. Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level and are expected to continue in Q4 due to winter storage demand [39][41][47] - In Q3 2025, the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores showed a divergent trend. The domestic processing fee increase was limited and has reached an inflection point, while the imported processing fee continued to rise. In Q4, the imported processing fee still has room to rise [56][58] - **Smelting End**: - Global refined zinc production decreased in H1 2025, with a significant internal - external divergence. Domestic zinc ingot production increased due to good profits, while overseas refineries had low operating rates due to high costs and low profits [62] - Domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Recycled zinc will bring some incremental output, and the key incremental output of primary zinc lies in the Huoshaoyun project, but its production start is slower than expected. Overseas refineries have limited incremental output, and the supply of overseas zinc ingots is expected to remain tight. China's refined zinc imports decreased in 2025, and the zinc ingot export window is almost open [66][69][71] - **Demand End**: - The downstream demand in the initial stage showed no obvious peak - off - peak characteristics, and there are concerns about future demand. The export of galvanized sheets was affected by the anti - dumping tax in Vietnam, and the future export is expected to be weak [73][80][85] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, but infrastructure is still the key support for zinc consumption. The real estate market is still the main drag on zinc consumption, but the demand for zinc may improve slightly in Q4. The home appliance industry is expected to weaken due to the shortage of national subsidies and the "de - stocking" in the overseas market. The automobile industry maintained high growth in production and sales in Q3, and the demand for zinc is expected to be good in the peak season [88][91][100] - **Inventory**: Since June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has been accumulating, while the LME zinc inventory has continued to decline rapidly. The internal - external inventory divergence has intensified, and the export window is approaching. If the export window opens, the domestic inventory may be transferred overseas, which will change the inventory divergence trend [104]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures bottomed out and rebounded. The macro - situation is centered around the Fed's October interest - rate cut expectation, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report. The improvement in demand has led to inventory reduction, and the low overseas inventory and strong structure support the zinc price. However, the resumption of production in domestic refineries and new capacity input will keep the supply high, limiting the upward elasticity of zinc prices. Overall, the long - and short - term forces are balanced, and the continuous adjustment space of zinc prices is limited [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the price of SHFE zinc remained unchanged at 22,045 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc rose from 2898.5 to 2922.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.61 to 7.54. The inventory of SHFE increased by 4666 tons to 99315 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 4025 tons to 43,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.66 million tons to 15.04 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 50 to - 60 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2511, fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after bottoming out and rebounding. The final price was 21,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27%. LME zinc first declined and then rose, supported by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed at 2886.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. In the spot market, by September 25th, the trading was dominated by traders' shipments, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, with weakening purchasing power and a slight decline in spot discounts [6][7]. 3. Industry News - In October, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average imported ore processing fee was 87.51 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.83 dollars/dry ton. Antamina Mine's zinc production is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, a 67% increase from last year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external ratio, spot and LME premiums, inventory situations of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream end - user enterprise operating rates [15][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].