投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 内外劈叉，亟待修复 宏观方面：三季度美联储降息周期重启，然官员分歧较大，短期 降息路径或仍具不确定性，中长期全球货币政策存宽松预期有望支 撑有色板块，与此同时国内经济压力逐渐显现，急需政策端发力， 关注四季度"十五五"规划期间政策出台情况。 有色金属指数与沪锌期货价格走势 数据来源：Wind 往期相关报告 原料端：25 年三季度全球锌矿扰动有限，锌矿供应宽松，预计 四季度延续。此外受内外比价持续下行影响，国产矿和进口矿加工 费趋势分化，且步入四季度国内北方矿山存季节性减产预期，加工 费分化趋势预计持续。 投资建议 单边性价比不高，关注板块内空配机会，月差维持反套逻辑，但 空间不大，此外内外建议关注内库外迁兑现下的反套机会。 风险提示 美国经济衰退风险 | 投资观点： | 中长期看空 | 锌（ZN） | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | | 宏观方面：三季度美联储降息周期重启，然官员分歧较大，短期 |  | 分析师：方富强 | | 降息路径或仍具不确定性，中长期全球货币政策存宽松预期有望支 | | 从 ...

锌周报 9 2025 年 9 月 29 日 多空因素均衡 锌价调整空间有限 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价探底回升。宏观面看，美国经济具有韧性 且就业市场降温改善，市场下调 10 月降息预期，美元反弹，。 周五公布的 8 月 PCE 数据符合预期，市场等待 9 月非农数据 指引。周中铜价在海外矿山不可抗力影响下大幅拉涨，带动 有色板块情绪偏强修复。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，沪伦比价低位， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].

Report Summary - The core contradiction of zinc logic has changed from the expectation of ore supply surplus to the difficult - to - solve internal and external supply - demand contradiction. The growth of ore supply has been realized, but the imbalance between internal and external zinc ingot supply and demand persists [2]. Domestic Zinc Ore Reserve and TC - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 3.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The cumulative domestic ore production was 2.0677 million metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. Domestic ore production increase is difficult, and the supply growth is lower than expected. The TC may have limited upward space in the later stage [5][8]. Overseas Zinc Ore Production - According to sample mines, the production in Q1 2025 was 1.136 million tons, and in Q2 it was 1.17 million tons. Assuming 3 unreported mines had the same Q2 output as Q1, the Q2 output would be 1.215 million tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons quarter - on - quarter and 110,000 tons year - on - year. The annual output of major mines in 2025 is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons [5][17]. Domestic Smelting and Supply - From January to August 2025, China's refined zinc production was 4.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In August, the monthly output increased by 28.8% year - on - year, and the expected growth rate in September is over 20%. The smelting profit persists, and the supply pressure remains. Even if the consumption peak season arrives as expected, the social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with an expected increase of over 200,000 tons in the second half of the year [5][23]. Overseas Supply and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, overseas refined zinc production was 3.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3%. The expected output in the second half is 3.338 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.9%. Overseas supply is affected by smelting profit and declines, while consumption remains relatively strong. There is a risk of inventory shortage due to continuous inventory depletion. The import and export windows are both closed, and the imbalance between internal and external supply and demand is difficult to resolve in the short term [5][25].

Market Review - The main contract for zinc futures, ZN2509, experienced weak fluctuations during the day and remained stable at night, while London zinc prices increased [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 14, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 45,425 tons and canceled warrants at 32,025 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; total zinc inventory stood at 77,450 tons, down by 1,025 tons [2] - Nexa Resources announced partial temporary production stoppages at its Cerro Pasco complex due to illegal blockades by a minority of the San Juan de Milpo community, affecting annual zinc production of 63,000 to 74,000 tons and lead production of 34,000 to 39,000 tons, with current production guidance unchanged [2] - The mainstream transaction price for Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,475 to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30-20 yuan/ton to the ZN2509 contract [2] Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that market expectations for supply reaching production capacity have been fully priced in, while downstream demand remains relatively strong; thus, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a recommendation to remain cautious [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlighted that the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and many Federal Reserve officials opposed rate cuts in September, leading to a weaker dollar index and renewed pressure on non-ferrous metals; despite disturbances in overseas mining, the overall investment trend remains upward, while domestic mines are resuming production seasonally [3] - The report indicated that domestic zinc market conditions show strong supply but weak demand, with increasing inventories during the traditional off-season; LME canceled warrants remain relatively high, and overseas inventories continue to decrease; thus, zinc prices are expected to run weakly within a reference range of 22,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macro: On July 27, local time, US President Trump announced that the US had reached a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [5]. - Fundamental: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated and consolidated. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and prices dropped significantly on Friday night, showing signs of a potential peak. The fundamentals of zinc have changed little recently, and anti - involution has limited impact on the zinc supply - demand pattern. It is advisable to consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. The supply of zinc ore is becoming more abundant cyclically, with several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad planning to increase production in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC for zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is being transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters have increased their operating rates, postponed maintenance, and the output of refined zinc has marginally recovered. It is expected that the production increase trend in the ore and smelting sectors will continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in total zinc demand, with demand expected to remain stable. Whether a more optimistic or pessimistic view is taken on demand, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - Strategy: In the short - to medium - term, zinc prices have been fluctuating and consolidating after rising due to commodity market sentiment. Anti - involution has limited impact on the medium - to long - term fundamental pattern of zinc. The zinc market is expected to be in surplus this year. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices after the sentiment in the domestic commodity market stabilizes [5]. Group 3: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Production - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal increase in zinc ore supply remains unchanged [6]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of July 25, according to SMM, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $76.25/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Production - According to ILZSG, in May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. Group 4: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side 3.1 Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption - In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [23]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [25]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - In June 2025, China's automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of household appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. Group 5: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, social inventories of zinc have been continuously increasing [30]. 4.2 Spot Premium/Discount - As of July 25, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $1.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [33]. 4.3 Exchange Positions - As of July 18, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 21,052 lots. The weighted open interest of SHFE zinc has recently declined [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In early 2016, the zinc industry cycle was characterized by tight zinc ore supply and loose zinc ingot supply, with strong expectations but weak reality. The introduction of supply - side reform policies coordinated with the industry cycle, leading to a significant bull market in zinc prices. Currently, the zinc industry is in a situation of loose supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingot, with weak expectations and reality. Although policies such as anti - involution, elimination of backward production capacity, and stable growth have been introduced, the zinc industry cycle fails to resonate with domestic macro - policies, making it difficult for zinc prices to show a sustained upward trend. With the expected increase in zinc ingot supply, if speculative sentiment cools down and the macro - environment weakens, zinc prices still face significant downward risks [1][26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side: Loose Supply of Both Ore and Ingot - **Zinc Ore**: In the first half of the year, the increase in zinc ore supply mainly occurred overseas. From January to June in China, the cumulative year - on - year growth of net zinc ore imports was 48%, driving the cumulative year - on - year growth of total zinc ore supply to 13.5%. The significant growth in zinc ore supply is reflected in higher inventories than in previous years and rising processing fees. The current port inventory of zinc concentrates is 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory is 599,000 physical tons, with the total inventory increasing by 286,800 physical tons compared to the visible inventory of the same period last year. The current average domestic TC of zinc concentrates is 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 76 dollars/dry ton, increasing by 2,350 yuan/metal ton and 115 dollars/dry ton respectively compared to the low points of the same period last year [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The increase in zinc ingot supply lags behind that of zinc ore by about 4 months. China's smelting output began to rise in June. In June, the zinc ingot output was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. With abundant raw materials, it is expected that the average monthly total supply of domestic zinc ingots will remain above 600,000 tons in the second half of the year. Due to relatively limited downstream demand, the visible inventory of domestic zinc ingots has been rising since early June. From June to July, the total inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 24,500 tons to 196,300 tons, and the basis and monthly spread of SHFE zinc also declined significantly [4]. Demand Side: Weak Reality with Marginally Strengthening Expectations - **Current Demand Situation**: The operating conditions of primary enterprises are worse than in previous years. The weekly operating rate of galvanized coils is 3% lower than the same period last year, and that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises is 4.6% lower. However, some primary enterprises carried out strategic stockpiling as zinc prices declined. The sharp drop in zinc prices in the first half of 2025 brought forward the apparent demand for zinc ingots, and Trump's tariff policy brought forward galvanized exports. These early stockpiling/consumption behaviors may lead to weaker actual consumption in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period of previous years [12]. - **Demand Expectations**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. As a large - scale infrastructure project, it has increased the consumption expectation of zinc ingots to some extent. Zinc used in hydropower station construction is mainly for the anti - corrosion of metal structural parts. However, due to the long expected construction period of the project, the actual annual demand for zinc ingots is relatively limited, and it mainly has a boosting effect on market sentiment [12]. Market Sentiment and Capital Disturbance - **Overseas**: The Trump administration's influence on the Fed's monetary policy is increasing, raising the market's expectation of a loose Fed monetary policy, which provides some support for zinc prices. As the end - of - month Fed interest rate meeting approaches, the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision [17]. - **Domestic**: On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a work plan for stable growth and elimination of backward production capacity. Coupled with the anti - involution policy, it has ignited a bull market in domestic bulk commodities. Polysilicon, coking coal, and other black - series commodities have all risen significantly. SHFE zinc, as a non - ferrous metal variety highly correlated with black - series commodities, has also been affected by market sentiment to some extent. After the July delivery in the domestic zinc market, the registered warehouse receipts of zinc ingots on the SHFE returned to over 10,000 tons, the monthly spread of SHFE zinc declined significantly, and the domestic structural risk decreased significantly. Since early July, the concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market has been relatively high. On July 21, the cancelled warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased by 38,400 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts dropped to a low of 58,300 tons, pushing the LME zinc monthly structure to strengthen continuously, and the overseas structural risk remains high. Under the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets, the SHFE - LME ratio has continued to decline, and the zinc ingot import window has closed [17]. Comparison of Current and 2016 Market Conditions In 2016, the zinc industry entered a period of zinc ore shortage. According to SMM data, the average profit of zinc ore enterprises entered a loss since the second half of 2015, and in early 2016, the average profit was - 2,300 yuan/metal ton. The zinc ore processing fee was at a high level and showed a marginal weakening trend. Some high - cost zinc mines suffered severe losses. From the end of 2015 to early 2016, Glencore's zinc mines reduced production by 500,000 tons due to heavy losses, and MMG and Vedanta's zinc mines reduced production by 670,000 tons due to resource depletion. In contrast, the current zinc ore market is still in a state of oversupply. The average profit of SMM zinc ore is still 4,300 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee is on an upward trend without any signs of stagnation or weakening. According to the quarterly reports of overseas mining enterprises, the production of major mining enterprises is normal, and there is no tendency for profit - related production cuts [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of zinc is neutral, indicating that the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the medium - term, it remains bearish [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has seen an expected increase. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, refineries and port inventories of zinc concentrate are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a historical median. After concentrated domestic refinery maintenance, production has increased, along with new projects. Thus, supply pressure has risen, and the surplus logic may be evident in the accumulation of social inventories. The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally, and the space for restocking has shrunk. In the short - term, the accumulation of social inventories is relatively moderate, which makes short - sellers cautious. Coupled with the short - term improvement in the macro - environment, zinc prices are mainly in a range - bound state. In the medium - to long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Regarding internal - external strategies, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, so short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison (Inventory, Profit, and Operating Rate) Inventory - Zinc ore and refinery finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased but remains low [10] Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12][13] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical median. The refined zinc monthly operating rate is at a high level compared to the same period. The operating rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a relatively low level [14][15] 2. Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position) Spot - The spot premium has significantly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][23] Spread - The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [25] Inventory - Domestic inventory is at a low level but shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME total inventory has slightly increased in the short - term and is at a historical median. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [35][37][39] Futures - The domestic position volume is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [43] 3. Supply (Zinc Concentrate, Refined Zinc, and Secondary Zinc Oxide) Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc mine production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high compared to the same period [46][47] Refined Zinc - Smelting production has marginally recovered, refinery finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median [48][51] 4. Zinc Demand (Downstream Processed Materials and End - Users) Downstream - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [59][62] End - Users - The real estate sector remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [75] 5. Overseas Factors (Natural Gas, Carbon, and Electricity) - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in different European countries show different trends over time [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Macro - "anti - involution" brings strong bullish sentiment, but the zinc market sees increases in both ore and ingot supply. The demand side is in the off - season, and the zinc market's inventory accumulation trend is gradually emerging. The fundamentals are weak, and the rebound of zinc prices is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the view of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. Continued attention should be paid to macro and downstream consumption conditions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.09% to 22,360 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,380 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.09% to 2,738 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Raw Material End 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of July 11, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the total inventory of 7 ports was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [20]. - As of July 10, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,064 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [26]. - As of July 11, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 66.48 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of July 10, the production profit was - 234 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - The import profit window was closed. As of July 11, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,523.72 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [40]. 3. Downstream Demand 3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.81 percentage points to 58.29%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased [46][49]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of zinc alloy fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy increased by 0.09% to 23,055 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy increased by 0.08% to 23,605 yuan/ton [53]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.94%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased [56][59][60]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained stable. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [67]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 55.84%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [70][73]. 4. Inventory - As of July 14, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 86,100 tons, an increase in inventory. As of July 10, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [78]. - As of July 11, the SHFE inventory was 50,000 tons, an increase in inventory, and the LME inventory was 105,250 tons, a continuous decrease in inventory [81].