人民币升值，只是开始 20251225 摘要 Q&A 近期人民币汇率的升值趋势如何？其背后的主要推动因素是什么？ 从 8 月份开始，人民币汇率出现了一波明显的升值。截至目前，离岸人民币一 度突破 7.0 的整数关口，并在这一水平附近波动。自 12 月份以来，中国央行 在逆周期因子调节上已从负值转向正值，显示出对人民币温和升值速度的调控。 然而，即便如此，市场力量仍在推动人民币整体回升。从 8 月至今，人民币累 计升值 2.3%，其中美元走弱贡献了 1.6%，而人民币相对于一篮子货币的主动 升值贡献了 0.7%。这表明不仅美元贬值推动了人民币被动升值，同时也有中 国自身经济因素带来的主动升值。 年底时段是否是人民币汇率容易上升的窗口期？这种现象背后的原因是什么？ 年底通常是一个人民币汇率较容易上升的窗口期。过去几年中，除了 2024 年 外，在 2022 年和 2023 年的年底，人民币汇率都有明显的升值。这与企业在 逆周期因子已转正，表明对人民币升值速度进行温和调控，但市场力量 仍推动人民币升值。8 月至今，人民币累计升值 2.3%，美元走弱贡献 1.6%，主动升值贡献 0.7%，表明中国经济因素驱动人民币升 ...

华安证券认为，能源金属领域正迎来产能深度整合阶段，海外供给端减产信息频现，整个行业或将持续 出现减产或停产信号，碳酸锂行业已开启产能整合进程，锂价有望触底回升。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋 锂业、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业、赤峰黄金。 截至2025年12月17日 10:30，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨1.75%，成交2.47亿元。跟踪指数中证申万有色 金属指数强势上涨1.85%，成分股国城矿业上涨8.98%，盛新锂能上涨7.49%，中矿资源上涨6.07%，天 齐锂业，永兴材料等个股跟涨。 有色商品接力上涨，铂价年内近乎翻倍。2025年年底，有色金属市场延续强势表现，多品种价格接力上 涨，其中铂价成为领涨明星，截至12月中旬年内涨幅已达98.67%，近乎翻倍，创下近年价格新高。这 轮行情背后，是供给端持续收缩与需求端多元增长形成的紧平衡格局，叠加 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment for copper is strong, and copper prices may experience high - level fluctuations. Mid - term macro expectations and spot demand are in conflict, with high uncertainty. [4] 3) Summary by Related Aspects Market Environment - After the Fed's hawkish speech, the market continued to lower the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the market's optimistic sentiment declined, and the US dollar rose to a new high since August on Friday. The non - ferrous metals showed a strong trend. [3] - China's October manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, and China issued a large number of opening - up policies, which improved market sentiment. [3] - The US dollar rose slightly, the RMB soared, and the sharp rise in crude oil and energy drove the non - ferrous metals to rise in the afternoon. [3] Copper Market Performance - Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, while domestic spot copper fell. Today, Shanghai copper closed at 87,300, and the spot price was 87,020. The spot was at a discount of - 280 points to the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 5 points, and spot trading was poor. [3] - The LME spot discount narrowed to - 14 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. [3] - US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, LME copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. [3] - The RMB exchange rate fell sharply this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34 US dollars, and domestic spot demand was poor. [3] - The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 7.97, the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 535 points, and the external price ratio was higher than the domestic one. [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, LME copper rose slightly and traded around 10,900 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly and closed at 87,300, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [4] - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's rate - cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. [4] - In terms of supply and demand, the output of mines in Indonesia and other places has decreased, but the short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot end in the future. [4] Future Concerns - Future concerns include when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's rate - cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve. [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 28 | 7.0962 | 1220 | 34.5 | - 24 | 8.03 | | Oct 29 | 7.0968 | - 950 | 34.5 | - 20 | 7.95 | | Oct 30 | 7.1106 | 140 | 35.5 | - 20 | 8.00 | | Oct 31 | 7.1225 | 600 | 35.5 | - 21 | 8.01 | | Nov 3 | 7.1173 | - 280 | 34 | - 14 | 7.97 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price is close to a new high due to macro - positive stimuli. The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic. The copper price may continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term and could potentially break through historical highs following the trend of gold [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Market Performance - Today, the US dollar rose slightly while the RMB soared. Non - ferrous metals remained strong throughout the day. Shanghai copper, London copper, and domestic spot copper all increased. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 88,370, and the spot price was 88,340. The spot was at a discount of - 30 points to the futures. The spot basis turned to a discount of - 45 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 26 dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, London copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose significantly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34.5 dollars, showing weak domestic spot demand. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rose to 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper increased to 595 points, with the foreign price - to - value ratio higher than the domestic one [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, London copper surged today, trading around 11,050 dollars. Shanghai copper also rose sharply, closing at 88,370, hitting a recent high with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, and market sentiment was optimistic. Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and global monetary policies are becoming more accommodative, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, mine production in places like Indonesia has declined, but short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there is growth potential for medium - to - long - term copper demand, presenting a generally neutral situation that requires attention [3][4] Future Events to Watch - In the short - term, important macro events to follow include the results of Sino - US talks, the Fed's interest - rate meeting early Thursday, the APEC meeting at the end of the month where Sino - US leaders may meet, and the end of the US government shutdown. In the medium - term, it is necessary to monitor whether Sino - US relations can continue to improve, whether the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle can persist, when the current weak domestic and foreign spot demand will improve, and whether AI - related demand can materialize [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures and Spot Spread | Main Contract London - Shanghai Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Oct 21 | 7.1269 | 450 | 35 | - 23 | 8.05 | | Oct 22 | 7.1256 | - 320 | 34 | - 30 | 8.03 | | Oct 23 | 7.1246 | - 520 | 40 | - 6 | 8.05 | | Oct 24 | 7.1259 | - 1170 | 39 | - 12 | 7.97 | | Oct 27 | 7.1136 | - 30 | 34.5 | - 26 | 8.09 | [5]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,059 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 10% since September, the largest monthly gain in 14 years, driven by global monetary policy easing and inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, alongside a broader loss of confidence in existing currencies [2]. - Central banks, particularly in China, have been increasing their gold reserves, which now exceed 2,300 tons, indicating strong institutional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - The current economic climate, characterized by rising national debt and potential U.S. interest rate cuts, is seen as favorable for gold, with analysts suggesting that significant capital is still being allocated to gold for risk mitigation [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators show that gold is experiencing slight corrections, with a resistance level at $4,060 and a support level at $3,900 [4]. - The MACD indicator suggests a strong bullish trend, while the Bollinger Bands indicate potential upward movement if gold maintains above the support levels [4]. - Trading strategies recommend buying on dips, with specific price targets set for aggressive and conservative investors [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bearish on zinc (ZN) [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in Q3 2025, but there are significant differences among officials. The short - term interest - rate cut path is uncertain. In the medium - to - long - term, the global monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will support the non - ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, China's economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [1][3][110] - The current domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Demand is also mediocre. The supply - surplus pattern of zinc fundamentals is expected to continue, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices. However, the downside space of zinc is limited. The Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and the expected global liquidity loosening support the non - ferrous metals sector, and the waiting - to - be - repaired internal - external price ratio also limits the lower limit of SHFE zinc. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move down slightly with small fluctuations in Q4 [5][111][113] - Unilateral trading has low cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to short - allocation opportunities within the sector. The contango/backwardation spread maintains the reverse - arbitrage logic, but the space is limited. In addition, for internal - external trading, pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities when the internal inventory is transferred overseas [2][113] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend Review**: In Q3 2025, the prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed a divergent trend. SHFE zinc showed an inverted "V" shape, while LME zinc oscillated upwards. The price fluctuations were affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, labor strikes at refineries, and inventory trends [6] - **Spread and Premium/Discount Changes**: In June 2025, the zinc social inventory started to accumulate, and the basis was quickly adjusted downwards, turning into a discount at the end of July. As of September 22, the average spot premium/discount in Shanghai dropped to - 60 yuan/ton. The domestic basis is at a low level in recent years, while the LME basis is at a high level. In the future, the domestic spot is likely to maintain a discount pattern. Pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.2 Macro Aspects - **US**: The interest - rate cut cycle restarted, but there are differences among Fed officials, and the interest - rate cut pace may be cautious. In the short - term, the interest - rate cut is in line with market expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to promote global liquidity release and support the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the US economic recession probability still exists as the non - farm payroll data was disappointing [18][19][21] - **China**: In Q3, economic data declined significantly. In August, investment, consumption, and production data all declined. Economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [32][34][38] 3.3 Fundamental Overview - **Raw Material End**: - Global zinc ore supply has recovered significantly. In 2025, overseas zinc ore production increased year - on - year, and in Q4, overseas mines may increase production to meet the annual targets. Domestic zinc concentrate production is stable, but northern mines will have seasonal maintenance at the end of Q4. Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level and are expected to continue in Q4 due to winter storage demand [39][41][47] - In Q3 2025, the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores showed a divergent trend. The domestic processing fee increase was limited and has reached an inflection point, while the imported processing fee continued to rise. In Q4, the imported processing fee still has room to rise [56][58] - **Smelting End**: - Global refined zinc production decreased in H1 2025, with a significant internal - external divergence. Domestic zinc ingot production increased due to good profits, while overseas refineries had low operating rates due to high costs and low profits [62] - Domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Recycled zinc will bring some incremental output, and the key incremental output of primary zinc lies in the Huoshaoyun project, but its production start is slower than expected. Overseas refineries have limited incremental output, and the supply of overseas zinc ingots is expected to remain tight. China's refined zinc imports decreased in 2025, and the zinc ingot export window is almost open [66][69][71] - **Demand End**: - The downstream demand in the initial stage showed no obvious peak - off - peak characteristics, and there are concerns about future demand. The export of galvanized sheets was affected by the anti - dumping tax in Vietnam, and the future export is expected to be weak [73][80][85] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, but infrastructure is still the key support for zinc consumption. The real estate market is still the main drag on zinc consumption, but the demand for zinc may improve slightly in Q4. The home appliance industry is expected to weaken due to the shortage of national subsidies and the "de - stocking" in the overseas market. The automobile industry maintained high growth in production and sales in Q3, and the demand for zinc is expected to be good in the peak season [88][91][100] - **Inventory**: Since June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has been accumulating, while the LME zinc inventory has continued to decline rapidly. The internal - external inventory divergence has intensified, and the export window is approaching. If the export window opens, the domestic inventory may be transferred overseas, which will change the inventory divergence trend [104]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a correction phase after significant gains in June and July, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 3600 points [3]. Group 1: Current Market Adjustment - The current adjustment in the market is characterized as healthy, with anti-involution policies being implemented across various industries, which are expected to optimize the market environment and improve overall industry profitability [4]. - Key economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) are anticipated to improve, indicating enhanced profitability for industrial enterprises, which will support the performance growth of related listed companies [4]. Group 2: Mid-term Upward Drivers - The global monetary policy easing cycle is ongoing, with major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, likely to continue interest rate cuts into 2025, providing liquidity support for the market [5]. - China's central bank has already initiated a combination of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with further easing expected, which will benefit equity assets and push up risk asset valuations [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is gradually moving towards recovery, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies, which aim to lower financing costs and enhance policy effectiveness [5]. Group 3: Technology Sector as a Core Investment Line - The technology sector remains a core investment focus for the medium to long term, with significant advancements expected in areas such as artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025 [6]. - Recent policies from the government aim to support technological innovation through various financial measures, encouraging investment in early-stage and hard technology sectors [7]. - The State Council has approved initiatives to promote the large-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence, leveraging China's comprehensive industrial system and market advantages [7].