每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指阻力參考 27,000 點：中美雙方同意延長 5 月中旬達成的 90 天關稅 休戰協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局勢緩和。另外，聯儲 局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要調整政策立 場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期一度升溫。惟美聯儲 9 月鷹派減 息，明年減息空間少於預期。美匯、債息反彈，牽制港股上行空間，短線 留意 10 月四中全會有關十五五規劃以及十一消費出行數據，恒指料區間 上落，短線阻力參考 27,000 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 歐元區 9 月消費者信心指數； 美8月PCE通脹溫和符預期 減息預期繼續； 企業消息 ➢ 優必選(9880)再獲3000萬人形機器人大單 總訂單金額逼近4.3億； 比亞迪(1211)：降賣車目標「更健康」預告未來數月產銷現新一輪增 長； 新世界(0017)去年度淨虧損163億元不派息 總債務約1461億元； 外圍市況展望 宏觀焦點 ➢ 央行：要落實落細適度寬鬆的貨幣政策，用好證券、基金、保險公司 互換便利和股票回 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity tends to contract before the National Day holiday, but this is often a result of "emotional shrinkage" rather than fundamental issues [1] - Historically, the market tends to experience a "post-holiday rally," with sustained gains during bull markets, especially when long holidays coincide with positive events [1] - Recent market focus has shifted towards domestic policies and structural industry prosperity, with less attention on US-China relations, which have shown signs of improvement since September and may be gradually priced in by the market in Q4 [1] Market Trends - After concentrated trading in the computing power sector, market funds are gradually shifting towards other low-position growth sectors, suggesting a continuation of a slow bull market in the medium term [1] - In the context of a macroeconomic environment that has not fully recovered, new sectors with structural prosperity are expected to be key determinants of investment success [1] Key Sectors to Watch - The report highlights several sectors with concentrated catalytic events that are worth monitoring: semiconductors, new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [1]

近期市场关注点主要集中在国内政策和产业结构性景气，对中美关系关注度有所不足，该行认为9月以 来中美关系存在阶段性改善的迹象，或在四季度逐步被市场定价。近期以中美贸易磋商马德里会议结 束、达成解决TikTok问题基本框架和中美元首今年第三次通话为代表，目前中美关系呈现高频沟通与重 视实质进展的特点，预计四季度的APEC多边会议和第五轮中美磋商会议将为明年中美元首互访做铺 垫。若中美对抗降温，AH资产有望在情绪修复、资金回流、盈利改善三重逻辑下提振。 近期市场资金在算力板块集中交易后，逐步向其他低位景气成长赛道切换，市场整体情绪保持稳健，流 动性条件尚未出现明显收紧，尚不构成全面利空信号，中期市场或仍延续慢牛格局。具备结构性景气的 新赛道仍将成为投资的核心胜负手。 重点关注催化事件较集中的景气板块：半导体、新能源、人形机器人、创新药、有色等。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，国庆假期前往往出现流动性收缩特征，但这种冷清多为 "情 绪性缩量"。同时国庆一般呈现"节后开门红"的特征，牛市中节后涨幅通常维持更持久，并且往往呈现 出长假与利多事件催化同时发生的典型市场特点，持股过节性价比较高。近期市场关注点主要集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a positive outlook for the A-share market in the fourth quarter, driven by strong economic fundamentals and a focus on new productivity sectors such as technology and "anti-involution" strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend, rising from around 3300 to above 3800 points this year, with sectors like innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and computing power leading the way [2]. - The strong performance of the A-share market since April is attributed to multiple supportive factors, including favorable policies, industrial advancements, and increased capital participation [8][19]. - Key drivers of the current market rally include systematic improvements in innovation capabilities, strong policy support, and the trend of technology companies expanding globally [19][20]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Trends - The investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors and "anti-involution" strategies, reflecting a shift of capital towards industries supported by national strategies [21][22]. - The structural differentiation in market styles indicates a transition from traditional growth models to sectors with clear industrial trends, particularly in hard technology fields like AI and semiconductors [22][23]. - The article suggests that the market is likely to see a new round of main rising trends, with a focus on policy and industrial developments [24][25]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The economic fundamentals in China exhibit strong resilience, and the market is expected to maintain upward potential, particularly in new productivity sectors like AI [25][26]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to witness a more balanced market style, with growth and value sectors both receiving attention from investors [28][29]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring policy developments and industry progress, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for investment opportunities [27][30]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has shown a strong upward trend this year, outperforming major global indices, and is expected to continue benefiting from favorable liquidity conditions and asset revaluation [34][35]. - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market include technology, healthcare, and consumer services, which are poised for recovery and growth [36][37]. - The article notes that the increasing number of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong will enhance liquidity and investment opportunities in the region [37][38].

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 所有和科技板块相关的概念，都迎来大涨。 比如 芯片和半导体 ，这两天就迎来了涨停潮，主力净资金流入就超过了150亿元。 比如 CPO光 模 块 ，上周光指数就上涨了10%； 比如 AI算力、PCB概念 ，热门票连续涨停。 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 最近这一 波 行情，涨 得最猛的就 是 科技板块 。 比如 人形机器人 ，整个板块也出现过涨停潮； 再比如蹭到一点科技概念的 消费电子 ，涨幅都已经超过一般的板块。 而且最重要的是，这些科技的板块和个股，一旦涨起来就基本上都是连着上涨，持续逼空，买家 根本没有补票上车的机会。 因此，其实很多人在这一轮科技行情中是踏空的。 也有一些朋友，认为这一波科技涨得那么高了，股价有了泡沫，所以会认为接下来科技板块很快 就会迎来调整甚至大幅度的下跌。 但是我的观点不一样，我认为这一波科技牛，还远远没有结束。 我有几个理由。 第一，大A每一次牛市，其实都是依靠科技拉动行情的。 这一点是有历史可查的。 2005-2006年那一波牛市，靠的是当时的科技股。 比如恒生电子，当年那 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance of various sectors in the A-share market since the "policy combination punch" ignited the market on September 24, 2024, highlighting the structural bull market and the impressive returns of specific funds and sectors [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index has surged over 150% since the September 24 market initiation, becoming a focal point for investors due to its high volatility and small-cap stocks [3][4]. - The top 10 funds related to the North Exchange 50 Index have all achieved returns exceeding 130%, with two funds surpassing 170% [4][5]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The global semiconductor sales reached $53.1 billion in August 2024, marking a 20.6% year-on-year increase, while China's semiconductor sales hit $16.6 billion, up 27.5% [6]. - Funds focusing on the semiconductor sector have shown remarkable performance, with the top fund, 嘉实绿色主题股票A, achieving a return of 151.92% since September 24 [6][7]. Group 3: Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction, with the 中航趋势领航混合C fund achieving a return of 188.30% since September 24, driven by heightened market interest [8][9]. - The humanoid robot industry is expected to enter mass production by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [8]. Group 4: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a revival after three years of adjustment, with the 中银医疗保健混合A fund returning 110.40% since September 24 [10]. - The internationalization of China's innovative pharmaceutical industry is accelerating, with a surge in cooperative development agreements with multinational pharmaceutical companies [10]. Group 5: Military Industry - The military sector is gaining attention, with the 中航军民融合精选A fund returning 97.40% since September 24, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [14][15]. - Historical trends suggest that military stocks often rise in anticipation of major military parades, indicating potential for future growth [14].

以下文章来源于东方财富Choice数据 ，作者Choice数据 东方财富Choice数据 . Choice数据是东方财富旗下智能金融数据品牌，是国内领先的金融数据服务商。我们致力于为金融投资机构、学术研究机构、政务监管、媒体和专业投资 者提供金融投资领域多场景解决方案，以及更高效、更精准的投资决策依据。 AI摘要 ： 机构称A股处于"混合牛"阶段，中银证券认为将从科技结构牛转向全面牛，信达证券显示居民资金稳步入市。国产GPU企业摩尔线程9月26日上会，机构 看好国产算力芯片因技术突破与替代需求迎来发展机遇。宇树科技拟发1.8米人形机器人，机构称该产业市场空间广阔且规模化进程提速。 1、A股中期向上趋势不变 广发证券 ： A股仍处于弹性窗口 A 股仍处于弹性风格窗口， 国内资金驱动的行情已经启动。居民储蓄搬家入股市会偏好主题投资与符合高质量发展方向的成长 股，建议采用优化版的"杠铃策略"， 适度减少高股息比例，增加杠铃另一端弹性品种的配置比例。 | | | | | 沪深300 Long-only 各风格因子收益率(%) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The approval of Moer’s IPO is expected to reverse negative sentiment and lead to a recovery in the market, particularly benefiting the consecutive board stocks that have faced significant negative feedback recently [1] - Breakthroughs in domestic chip technology and reductions in semiconductor import plans are likely to boost the domestic semiconductor sector, presenting an opportunity for investment in this area [1] - The implementation of export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2026 is seen as a positive development for leading new energy vehicle companies, with expectations for strong performance from major players like BYD [2] Group 2 - The upcoming cultural tourism consumption month, featuring 29,000 events and 4.8 trillion yuan in subsidies, is anticipated to support the recovery of the tourism and consumer sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Caesar [2] - Increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October may provide opportunities for small investors, especially in the precious metals sector, during the upcoming holiday period [3] - The recent statements from the central bank indicate a supportive stance towards market stability and potential monetary easing, which may lead to a positive market response despite some mixed signals [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sanhua Intelligent Control has transformed from a small factory to a giant with a market capitalization nearing 200 billion yuan, driven by strategic pivots and deepening in core industries such as thermal management and robotics [1][4]. Company History - Sanhua Intelligent Control originated in 1967 as a small agricultural machinery repair factory and evolved into a leading manufacturer of refrigeration components [4]. - The company gained significant market share in the production of four-way valves, achieving a production volume of over 1 million units by 1999, which led to a successful acquisition of the valve business from the original acquirer, Lanco [5]. - The refrigeration segment remains a strong foundation for Sanhua, with revenue from air conditioning components reaching 10.389 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 25.49% [5]. Entry into New Energy Vehicles - Sanhua's entry into the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector was influenced by a meeting with Wanxiang Group's founder, which solidified the company's focus on thermal management for electric vehicles [7]. - The company successfully integrated into Tesla's supply chain, becoming a key provider of thermal management solutions for Tesla's Model 3 [8]. - In the first half of the year, Sanhua's automotive components business generated revenue of 5.874 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.83% year-on-year increase, although growth was impacted by a decline in Tesla's delivery volumes [9]. Robotics Sector Development - Sanhua is positioning itself in the humanoid robotics market, leveraging its experience in automotive components to develop electromechanical actuators [11]. - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Harmonic Drive to enhance its technological capabilities in robotics [11]. - Sanhua's management expressed confidence in the growth potential of robotics as a key application for AI, with a dedicated robotics division established to support product development and mass production [11][12].

德邦证券：市场整体韧性较强 聚焦科技主线不变 节前市场整体维持震荡向上的态势，尽管成交缩量，但市场整体韧性较强，并未出现资金集中撤离迹 象。当前政策空窗期环境下，产业趋势对市场影响将更大，未来一段时间科技板块或将仍是市场的核心 关注点。未来市场风格或将由"科技领涨"转为"均衡配置"，科技板块内部的强逻辑细分品种仍将有不错 表现；此外，红利板块也将凸显配置价值。 国信证券：权益资产具备支撑 关注板块轮动 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 中信建投：人形机器人板块机会持续向好 特斯拉机器人Gen3硬件定型及规模化量产在即，人形机器人板块逻辑已由主题投资阶段演进至量产预 期阶段，更突出供应链确定性与硬件创新双重驱动。展望后市，Gen3发布有望进一步明确硬件定型与 量产节奏，带来板块的历史性机遇。配置方向上，产业链确定性与硬件创新仍是核心主线，同时关注国 产产业链应用落地的新进展。 中泰证券：国产灵巧手价格持续下探 助力灵巧手加速落地 长期看，人形机器人灵巧手的消费场景需求广阔，短期有望在特殊场景及工业场景率先落地。当前国产 灵巧手价格持续下探，助力灵巧手加速落地。关注灵巧手整机、驱动电机（空心杯电机）、丝杠（滚珠 丝杠 ...