虽然全球最大经济体在构筑关税壁垒，但大部分国际机构的统计数据都证实，全球商品贸易在2025年仍 然保持了相对良好的势头。 不过，在整体韧性之下，暗流涌动，贸易的轨迹发生了转变：美国进口量下降，非洲、中东、拉丁美洲 等发展中经济体的进口量均呈现强劲增长态势。 美国知名智库海事战略中心研究员、航运业明星分析师麦科恩（John McCown）在最新一期研究报告中 称，10月全球集装箱货运量同比增长2.1%，但世界集装箱供应链已经开始调整和重塑贸易模式，"在美 国2024年全年集装箱进口量增长15.2%之后，如果说2025年的年度总数将与此截然相反，那都是轻描淡 写了。" 麦考恩认为，特朗普政府的贸易威胁是货物运输模式重塑的主要原因之一。他认为，如果说2025年是关 税之年，那么2026年将是关税后果显现之年。 与此同时，大部分贸易专家都预计，未来一年国际贸易动荡将加剧，而其中有四个"不确定性"最为关 键，分别是：重新审查美墨加协定（USMCA）、重启红海之路、协议的不确定性和美国最高法院对特 朗普政府关税的裁决。 重审美墨加协定 美国、加拿大和墨西哥即将开始审查2020年生效的《北美自由贸易协定》。美国贸易代表格里 ...

可能很多人一听到"封关"就慌了神，觉得是要封闭起来，其实这里面藏着关乎咱们贸易格局的大门道， 甚至可能改写美元主导的结算规则。 美元结算坑太多？ 2025年前11个月咱们中国出了个大新闻，成为历史上首个前11个月货物贸易顺差突破万亿美元的国家！ 这一数据达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，已超过2024年全年创下的9920亿美元纪录。 这数据看着特提气，说明咱们的中国制造在全球都吃得开，但我寻思着，光鲜背后藏着个致命问题—— 这些钱大多是美元结算，主动权根本不在咱们手里。 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊最近刷屏的海南封关大事。 这可不是小打小闹的风险，说白了就是两大坑：一是美国有无限印钞权，人家印钞机一开，就把咱们的 劳动成果稀释了。 二是得看美国脸色行事，它一加息，全球资金全往美国跑；一降息，咱们手里的美元资产就缩水。 而2025年12月18日海南自贸港正式封关运作，说白了就是咱们破解这个困局的关键一步棋。 一听说"封关"，好多人第一反应就是"以后去海南是不是要办证？""会不会变得不方便？"，完全想反 了！这纯属理解偏差，封关封的是海关监管边界，不是人员进出的大门。 咱们以前咋去海南旅游、办事，现在 ...

海南自由贸易港12月18日正式启动全岛封关运作，这是中国扩大高水平对外开放的重要举措。 封关 后，海南将实施"一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"的监管模式，旨在打造引领新时代对外开放的重要门 户。 "一线"放开后，海南自贸港"零关税"商品税目达到约6600个，比例由21%提高至74%，享惠主体范围也 大幅拓宽。有进口需求的企业，12月18日即可通过海南国际贸易"单一窗口"正式上线的"零关税"申报等 专属功能板块，自主申报。 中国世界贸易组织研究会副会长霍建国在接受21世纪经济报道专访时指出，"十五五"规划建议明确 将"高标准建设海南自由贸易港"作为推动制度型开放和自主开放的核心内容之一。自2018年提出、2019 年形成建设方案以来，海南自贸港历经数年推进，此次全岛封关运作标志着我国高水平开放进入新阶 段，以实际行动印证"中国开放的大门只会越开越大"。 霍建国表示，当前全球贸易环境复杂多变，保护主义抬头，国际贸易体系面临冲击。在此背景下，海南 自贸港对标国际最高开放标准，积极探索高水平开放路径，不仅是中国支持多边贸易体系和自由贸易的 具体体现，也对我国参与国际竞争、优化营商环境、吸引外资、支撑经济发展具有重大意义 ...

Core Insights - The report by the Federal Reserve highlights China's unique role in the trend of global trade fragmentation, acting as a stabilizing force and key hub that maintains the integrity of global trade networks [1][4] - Geopolitical distance has become a significant factor influencing bilateral trade, with countries increasingly favoring trade partners with similar geopolitical stances [1][4] Group 1: China's Role in Global Trade - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, contributing over 30% to global economic growth [1][2] - The presence of China has masked and mitigated the trend of global trade fragmentation, which began to emerge between 2003 and 2007, indicating that the causes of this fragmentation are not related to China's actions [1][3] Group 2: Economic Structure and Trade Adjustments - China's internal adjustments in imports are a rational choice to enhance the autonomy of its supply chain, reducing reliance on external sources and increasing bargaining power through diversified trade [2][3] - Exports from China are increasingly aligned with global demand, particularly in sectors like green technology and medical equipment, addressing market gaps and contributing to global supply stability [2][3] Group 3: Stability in Global Supply Chains - China plays a crucial role in maintaining high-end industrial chains globally, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors, by regulating exports of key minerals [3][4] - The balance of "self-sufficiency and open supply" positions China as a stabilizing anchor in global trade and supply chains, essential for mitigating risks associated with geopolitical tensions [3][4] Group 4: Implications for Global Trade - The report emphasizes that China's role transcends being merely a connecting country; it is a key node in the global economic structure, facilitating communication and preventing isolationist tendencies [4][5] - China's experience suggests that deepening mutually beneficial trade relationships, rather than engaging in geopolitical confrontations, is the correct path toward achieving shared prosperity in an uncertain global trade environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in the first 11 months of this year, highlighting a significant economic imbalance despite the impressive export figures [1][3]. Trade Data Summary - In the first 11 months of 2023, China's total goods trade value reached $5.75 trillion, with exports at $3.41 trillion (up 5.4% year-on-year) and imports at $2.34 trillion (down 0.6% year-on-year) [3]. - The trade surplus surged to $1.076 trillion, marking a 21.7% increase compared to the same period last year, and is projected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion for the entire year [3][5]. - Historical context shows that China's trade surplus has grown significantly since joining the WTO in 2001, when it was only $22.5 billion [3]. Factors Contributing to High Surplus - The decline in commodity prices, including a 12% drop in average oil prices, has reduced import costs, contributing to the larger surplus [5]. - Diversification of export markets has been beneficial, with notable increases in exports to the EU (up 7.3%), ASEAN (up 9.1%), and Africa (up 26.3%) [5]. - High-tech product exports, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, have driven growth, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese products [5]. Internal Demand Concerns - Domestic consumption growth has been sluggish, with retail sales increasing only 4.0% in the first 11 months and a mere 1.3% in November, the lowest since the pandemic [7]. - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6%, and real estate development investment has dropped by 15.9%, indicating weak internal demand [7]. - The high savings rate of 35% and low per capita consumption compared to developed countries suggest a significant gap in domestic spending [7]. International Reactions and Future Outlook - The record surplus has raised concerns among trade partners, particularly the US and EU, about potential trade tensions and tariff wars [8]. - The IMF has adjusted China's growth forecast to 5%, but challenges in real estate and domestic demand persist [8]. - Experts emphasize the need for a strategic shift towards boosting domestic consumption to balance the economy, as reliance on external demand poses risks [10].

Core Viewpoint - The closure of Hainan's customs marks a significant shift in global trade dynamics, positioning Hainan as a new offshore center and potential replacement for Singapore in maritime trade routes [2][4][10]. Group 1: Hainan's Strategic Importance - Hainan's customs closure on December 18 transforms it into an offshore center, enhancing its role in global trade [2]. - The closure allows for direct shipping routes to Hainan, reducing travel distances by thousands of kilometers and saving 3 to 4 days in transit time [10]. - Hainan's geographical size is 50 times larger than Singapore, providing a substantial advantage in logistics and trade operations [12]. Group 2: Economic Opportunities - The new policies in Hainan include 74% of goods being subject to zero tariffs, with corporate and personal tax rates capped at 15%, making it an attractive destination for businesses [13][15]. - Products with over 30% value-added processing will enjoy tax exemptions, incentivizing foreign manufacturers to establish operations in Hainan [15]. - Hainan is expected to facilitate the deep processing of Southeast Asian commodities, enhancing the flow of Chinese products like electric vehicles and solar components into ASEAN markets [17]. Group 3: Impact on Global Trade - The shift in trade routes from Singapore to Hainan could lead to a decrease in Singapore's pricing power as logistics become more efficient and less reliant on Singaporean ports [15][17]. - Hainan's development is not merely about becoming a shopping destination but aims to create a more autonomous and efficient trade corridor, reshaping the economic landscape [17].

"要让加拿大成为美国第51个州""要给加拿大加关税""要停止与加拿大的贸易谈判"……自今年重返白宫以来，特朗普组建的政府多次挥舞"关税大棒"施压相 关国家与之谈判，而与之相邻的加拿大便成了重点目标。 在特朗普政府的反复威胁下，加拿大也掀起一阵"抵美风波"：多地爆发抗议活动，加拿大商店下架美国酒类……如今，加拿大经济在美关税政策带来的"不 确定性"中颠簸。 加拿大独立企业联合会（CFIB）负责国际贸易与市场竞争的总监米歇尔·奥格尔在接受红星新闻采访时称，对加拿大企业，尤其是中小型企业而言，美国的 关税政策变化就意味着不确定性的增加，而这种不确定性会转化为切实的经济损失。奥格尔说，当下维系北美市场贸易的规则被打乱，贸易紧张局势动摇了 人们的信心，也让不少加企选择将业务重心从美国转移。 ▲特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼（资料图） 近半企业利润下滑 "保生存"成企业重点 在"给加拿大加关税"的问题上，特朗普政府呈现出反反复复的态度。有评价称，加拿大可能最终会与美国达成贸易协议，但没人知道到底是多久，"当我们 满怀希望看着总理（卡尼）和美总统之间的关系向好时，美商务部长卢特尼克就会带来坏消息。"奥格尔认为，美国这种不稳定的关税 ...

Group 1: Regional Foreign Trade Progress - The foreign trade scale in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area reached 8.3 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - The Yangtze River Delta region's foreign trade exceeded 15 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 15.46 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [2] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's foreign trade amounted to 4.3 trillion yuan, with exports hitting a historical high of 1.32 trillion yuan, and private enterprises' exports exceeding 600 billion yuan, growing by 16.1% [4] Group 2: Economic Development Milestones - The first seventh freedom rights flight route from Hainan Free Trade Port, connecting Sanya and Prague, commenced operations, enhancing international connectivity [6] - The Guangzhou-Zhanjiang high-speed railway officially opened, reducing travel time between the two cities from approximately 2.5 hours to 1.5 hours, improving regional accessibility [8] - The Shantou-Shantou South high-speed railway was fully operational, with a total length of 162 kilometers and a design speed of 350 kilometers per hour, serving as a key node in the national high-speed rail network [10] Group 3: Innovations in Maritime Industry - The world's first methanol dual-fuel intelligent ultra-large oil tanker was delivered in Dalian, China, measuring approximately 333 meters in length and capable of carrying about 2.1 million barrels of crude oil [12] - The tanker features domestically developed methanol dual-fuel engines and fuel supply systems, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 92%, meeting the latest international environmental standards [12][13] - The vessel is equipped with an intelligent ship-based platform and multiple intelligent systems for safe and efficient operational management, set to serve routes from the Middle East to the Far East [13]

Group 1 - New Zealand has agreed to a free trade agreement with India aimed at eliminating or reducing tariffs on 95% of its export goods [1][2] - From the first day of the agreement's implementation, nearly 57% of New Zealand's export goods will be duty-free, increasing to 82% once fully implemented [1][2] - The agreement was reached after nine months of negotiations that began on March 21 [1][2] Group 2 - The agreement is expected to be signed in the first half of next year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Indonesia have signed a free trade agreement, which is expected to enhance trade relations and open new market opportunities for EAEU products in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The free trade agreement was signed during the EAEU Supreme Council meeting held in St. Petersburg, Russia [1]. - Russian President Putin emphasized that the agreement will deepen multi-faceted interactions between the EAEU and Indonesia, providing a broad prospect for cooperation [1]. - EAEU Trade Minister Andrei Slepnev noted that the agreement will diversify the supply range for the EAEU [1]. Group 2: Benefits and Products - Following the signing of the free trade agreement, EAEU member countries will enjoy preferential access to the Indonesian market [1]. - Key products benefiting from this agreement include fertilizers, energy products, mining trucks, non-ferrous metal products, various electrical and mechanical equipment, as well as halal meat, wheat, and flour [1].