Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance both consumption capacity and willingness [10][19]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Consumption - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Consumption capacity is primarily affected by income, assets, and debt, while consumption willingness is influenced by economic expectations, social security systems, and available time for consumption [7][10]. - The current debt pressure on residents is significant, with the ratio of debt repayment to disposable income at 12.4% in Q3 2024, higher than in some developed economies [7]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption through income increases, reduced burdens, high-quality supply, and improved consumption environments, with 30 key tasks across eight areas [10][19]. - The government plans to increase public consumption significantly, as a 1% increase in public consumption can lead to a 0.4% rise in private consumption over the long term [13][19]. Group 3: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - The plan focuses on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, with measures including employment support and minimum wage adjustments [11][20]. - There is a specific emphasis on providing living allowances for recent graduates who have not yet found employment, recognizing their high marginal propensity to consume [21]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Projections - In 2024, the growth rate of social retail sales is projected to be only 3.5%, with expectations to increase to over 5% due to enhanced fiscal spending [3][19]. - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP in 2023, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [6][19]. Group 5: Financial Support Mechanisms - The plan introduces fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, marking a shift in focus from corporate to individual support, which could stimulate consumer spending [16][22]. - The government aims to balance "old-for-new" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups to ensure equitable access to consumption incentives [19][20].

促进服务消费怎么干？商务部答每经问：加快健全服务消费"1+N"政策措施体 系，增加优质服务供给 每经记者 张宏 每经编辑 陈旭 3月25日，商务部召开专题发布会，介绍扩消费有关政策情况。 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅近日印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地区各部门加强协同联动，加快形成工作合力。 在发布会上，商务部消费促进司司长李刚表示，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，协同推进提振消费专项行动，商务部将围绕扩消费开展四方面工作： 一是升级商品消费，稳住消费大盘；二是扩大服务消费，挖掘消费增量；三是培育新型消费，增强消费动能；四是创新消费场景，激发消费活力。 王波表示，下一步，商务部将推进服务消费高质量发展，创新多元化服务消费场景，培育服务消费新增长点。 一是实施服务消费提质惠民行动。王波表示，服务消费是消费扩容升级的重要抓手，也是促进民生改善的重要支撑。从今年起，商务部将牵头实施服务消费 提质惠民行动，围绕文化、旅游、养老、托幼、健康、体育、生活服务等服务消费重点领域，从支持政策、促进活动、平台载体、对外开放、标准引领、发 展环境等方面提出一批务实举措，发挥部门合力，切实提升服务品质，改善消费体验，不断增 ...

□ 长期来看，消费还有很大提升空间，但也要客观看待提振消费的难度。影响消费的因素分为消 费能力和消费意愿两大类：影响消费能力的因素主要有收入、资产和债务；影响消费意愿的因素 包括对经济和未来收入的预期、社会保障体系完善程度，以及是否有消费时间等。其中消费能力 是能否提振消费的关键因素，故要想方设法增加中低收入者（边际消费倾向强）的收入和福利水 平 □ 《提振消费专项行动方案》总的政策思路是以增收减负提升消费能力，以高质量供给创造有效 需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，并部署八方面30项重点任务。前七部分部署具体实施的七 大行动，第八部分进一步强调了完善投资、财政、信贷、统计等各项支持政策。文件覆盖面非常 广，涵盖了如何应对各类压制消费的因素 □ 考虑到消费对于经济平稳运行的重要性，接下来可做好五方面工作，以进一步夯实消费在稳经 济中的基石作用：一是更大力度增加财政对公共消费的投入；二是平衡好"以旧换新"和对特定群 体的现金补助；三是切实做好中低收入人群的收入合理增长工作；四是针对已毕业但尚未找到工 作的大中专毕业生，给予适当的生活补助；五是对个人消费贷款财政贴息的同时，加强资金用途 的监测 □ 当前，世界百年 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market shows a recovery in sales but weak investment, with second-hand housing becoming a key driver of sales improvement, while new housing remains sluggish [1][8][30] - The construction materials sector, including cement and steel, is experiencing lower demand compared to previous years, with cement output down 24.9% year-on-year [1][16][31] - The automotive and home appliance sectors are benefiting from improved demand due to the recovery in real estate sales and supportive policies, with automotive sales increasing by 20.8% year-on-year [1][12][31] Group 2 - The energy and resources sector is facing weak coal demand, with prices declining; however, industrial metals are seeing a mild recovery in demand [23][24] - The financial sector is experiencing heightened investment enthusiasm in the A-share market, with social financing data showing positive trends [34][35] - The midstream manufacturing sector is seeing a decline in heavy truck and excavator sales due to seasonal factors and policy transitions, with heavy truck sales down 25.5% year-on-year [36][37] Group 3 - The consumption sector is witnessing a recovery in service consumption and a rebound in large consumer goods, while agricultural product demand remains weak [2][3] - The TMT sector is seeing accelerated production of humanoid robots and sustained interest in AI models, indicating potential growth opportunities [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing high growth in sales from new energy vehicles, with new models expected to drive further demand [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are expected to navigate through a period of differentiation and reversal in 2024, with A-shares driven primarily by valuation, while Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks rely more on earnings support [3][5] Group 1: Market Strategies - In the face of a chaotic market, balanced allocation to hedge risks and focusing on individual stocks will be the core strategy for 2025 [3][5] - Strategic focus should be on truly strategic directions, while tactical approaches should concentrate resources on significant opportunities amidst differentiation [3][5] - The supply-side logic remains a crucial basis for identifying opportunities [3] Group 2: Global Industry Transformation - AI is identified as a core driver of global industrial transformation, with hardware and software mutually reinforcing each other, albeit at different paces [3][11] - AI is expected to profoundly change production and daily life, necessitating a focus on global internet/software exploration and efficiency optimization investments by Chinese companies [3][11] Group 3: Market Performance Insights - The Chinese concept stock market showed a flat performance in 2023 and 2024, with a slight decline of 3% and a rise of 4%, but experienced significant volatility with multiple instances of over 20% fluctuations [5] - The London market, despite a lackluster overall performance, has seen some companies in differentiated competitive sectors perform well [5][6] Group 4: Investment Logic Across Markets - A-shares are characterized by a wide variety of industry and company choices, while Hong Kong stocks offer opportunities in high-margin, quality large companies [9] - Chinese concept stocks are noted for their rapid growth in niche sectors, and overseas markets are focused on core value creators and rule-makers in the global supply chain [9] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy since 2023 has been to seek resilient growth amidst a weak recovery, emphasizing internal growth over macroeconomic judgments [9] - Key sectors of focus include commercial infrastructure, consumer goods, bulk resources, and technology hardware/software, with an emphasis on companies with strong cash flow growth and sustainable profitability [9][10]