证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 电网设备 ETF 价升量增 [Table_Title2] 权益 ETF 周度跟踪 [Table_Summary] 截至 2 月 27 日的行情，结合"涨跌幅-拥挤度"象限图和 ETF 资金流向来看，电网设备板块关注价值仍高。 整体来看，2 月 24-27 日，资源品和电网设备涨幅靠前，拥挤 度均有所上升。其中，资源品作为本周市场主线，热度与价格 共同上升；电网设备拥挤度在高位进一步升温，短期行情取决 于资金走向。同时，化工和半导体设备板块走强，拥挤度有所 增加，但仍未过热。而游戏、传媒、旅游和白酒跌幅较大， 板块热度出现不同程度的下降。游戏板块显著调整，热度随 之降温。 进一步结合 ETF 资金流向，资金追涨电网设备意愿较强，后 续行情仍然值得跟踪；资源品板块资金动向不明显，或处 于观望状态；化工和半导体设备板块部分资金获利了结， 博弈情绪升温，短期或将出现震荡。此外，游戏资金兑现 情绪有所缓解,出现企稳迹象。 风险提示 基金过往业绩不代表未来收益，本报告不涉及证券投资基金评 价业务，不涉及对基 ...

张启尧分析，沃什提名美联储主席带来全球流动性预期收紧、美伊地缘事件、美股科技巨头资本开支超 预期等多重不确定因素集中释放后，短线投资者借这些利空事件对年初以来的多头交易进行获利了结， 并非基本面或政策路径发生实质性变化。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕也表示："沃什'降息+缩表'倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科技龙头巨 额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观 望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。" 辞旧迎新，马年A股第一个交易日已经到来。 "马年对于A股而言又将是值得期待的一年。随着前期调整释放一定风险，从事件催化和日历效应角 度，春节后将有望迎来马年的第一轮上行。"兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示。 一些机构研究也表示，春节日历效应明显，A股节后表现往往强于节前，马年有望迎来"开门红"。 2月23日，港股走出强势行情，为节后市场提供重要参考。截至收盘，恒生指数收涨2.53%，恒生科技 指数收涨3.34%。盘面结构分化明显，有色金属、半导体概念、互联网科技股走高，中芯国际、美团涨 超5%。AI大模型、机器人板块回落，智谱跌超22%，MiniMax跌超1 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a high probability of style switching in A-shares around the Spring Festival, with a historical tendency for value and large-cap stocks to dominate before the festival, while growth and small-cap stocks tend to perform better afterward [1][8][23] - From 2010 to 2025, there were only two years (2020 and 2022) without a clear switch between growth and value styles, indicating a strong historical pattern of style rotation [8][18] - The report identifies that in 62.5% of the years analyzed, there was a significant switch from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the Spring Festival, suggesting a high likelihood of this trend continuing [1][8] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the sectors leading in performance before the Spring Festival often do not repeat their success in the following month, indicating a high probability of sector rotation [2][8] - The report notes that in years where value stocks led after the Spring Festival (2011, 2016, 2021), there were common factors such as liquidity tightening or unexpected risk events that suppressed growth stocks [2][23] - The macro environment in 2015 and 2019, characterized by ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, is compared to the upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting potential for similar market dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The report assesses that the current market style is shifting towards value before the 2026 Spring Festival, with technology and growth stocks receding [3][4] - It suggests that if the value style continues post-festival, it will be driven by expectations of domestic economic recovery and policy support, although there are concerns regarding inflation metrics [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the performance of small-cap stocks is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, driven by liquidity recovery and risk appetite [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategies for investors in the last trading week before the Spring Festival, highlighting the mainstream recommendation of "holding stocks over the holiday" based on historical "Spring Festival effect" analysis and current economic expectations [1][5]. Market Trends and Historical Analysis - A-shares typically exhibit a "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, characterized by "volume contraction before the festival and expansion afterward" [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that market volume usually starts to decline from T-8 days (T being the day of the festival), with significant volume drop observed around February 4, 2026, where trading amounts fell below 2.5 trillion yuan [2]. - The market tends to rebound in the last five trading days before the festival, with a clear upward trend often continuing until about T+6 days after the festival [2]. Fund Behavior and Market Dynamics - The "down then up" pattern of the index is attributed to risk-averse behavior of funds during the holiday, leading to a temporary market decline before a rebound as investors anticipate the "Spring Festival effect" [3]. - The rotation of large-cap and small-cap stocks is notable, with large-cap stocks performing better before the festival and small-cap stocks gaining an advantage afterward [3][4]. Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Multiple brokerage firms suggest a balanced approach to investment, emphasizing "stable allocation" before the festival and a focus on growth and industry trends afterward [8]. - Specific sectors such as low-volatility, high-dividend stocks in banking and consumer sectors are expected to attract funds during the pre-festival period [8]. - The technology sector remains a long-term consensus for investment, with a focus on AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy post-festival [8]. Sector Focus and Future Outlook - Analysts recommend monitoring sectors that may experience marginal changes during the festival, including humanoid robots, AI industry chains, and gaming [9]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the market may see renewed upward momentum post-festival, driven by improved economic and profit expectations, as well as a favorable liquidity environment [6][7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market, which recently reached a four-year high before experiencing a global market risk-off adjustment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The rapid rise in the Hong Kong market in January exceeded general expectations, particularly after a period of low investor interest during Q4 [1][2]. - Two critical questions arose post-adjustment: 1. Whether and when to add to positions 2. Whether the recovery will be led by recently underperforming sectors like technology and cyclical materials or if new leading sectors will emerge [2]. - The response to the first question indicates that adding to positions is advisable, as the adjustment is seen as healthy [2][3]. - External factors causing market adjustments have not fundamentally impacted the market; liquidity concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance are largely priced in [3]. - Active foreign capital has shown consistent net inflows for three weeks, and earnings expectations continue to be revised upwards [3]. - Seasonal trends around the Lunar New Year and catalysts like AI developments are expected to favor the Hong Kong market [3]. Additional Important Insights - The current high congestion in popular sectors, particularly in resource commodities, may lead to continued short-term volatility [4]. - A potential opportunity to build positions may arise if volatility indicators like VIX decrease and congestion levels drop before the Lunar New Year [5]. - The focus on technology and resource sectors is characterized as a technical pullback rather than a reversal, emphasizing the distinction between the "Hang Seng Tech" index and core stocks in AI hardware/software and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]. - The current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not expected to fundamentally disrupt the narrative for technology and resource sectors [5]. - Insurance, local Hong Kong stocks, and high-quality consumer leaders are recommended as stable core holdings due to their robust fundamentals [6]. - The annual outlook emphasizes three major equilibria for the Hong Kong market: earnings valuation rebalancing, internal and external capital rebalancing, and sector rebalancing, advocating for a mid-term investment perspective focused on fundamentals rather than chasing rapid gains [6].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index reached a four-year high last week, but experienced a technical pullback due to a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, indicating a risk-off sentiment in global equity markets [1] - The market sentiment index moved from panic to optimism within 16 days, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Current market volatility is expected to persist, but it is more likely to be a correction rather than a reversal of market performance [1] Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Non-financial earnings expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly downgraded by 0.1% [2] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in earnings expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and electric new energy (1.8%) [2] Capital Flow - Foreign capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [3] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million [3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains accommodative [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment index has risen to 62.1, indicating an optimistic outlook [4] - Factors contributing to this optimism include strong net inflows from southbound capital and high buying intensity [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with earnings certainty should be considered as core holdings, while opportunities to increase allocations in technology and cyclical materials should be explored during market corrections [5] - Focus on sectors showing upward trends, such as AI-related industries, semiconductor manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]

Market Overview - In January, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general upward trend, with major A-share indices rising, particularly the Sci-Tech 50, which increased by 15.8% [4] - The Hong Kong market also showed a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.8% and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 4.3% as of January 27, 2026 [4] A-share Insights - The recommendation for investors is to maintain a stable position and hold stocks through the holiday, anticipating a new market trend post-Spring Festival [5] - The upcoming spring market is expected to be promising, with potential positive news in both policy and fundamentals over the next few months [5] - Focus areas include growth sectors such as humanoid robots, AI industry chain, gaming, and film, alongside cyclical sectors benefiting from strong commodity prices and policy support [5] Hong Kong Stock Insights - The overall trend in the Hong Kong market remains positive due to earnings recovery, improved liquidity, low valuations, and policy support [6] - The market is transitioning from being driven by funds to being driven by performance, with a structural rebound expected in the first quarter [6] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests capturing structural opportunities amidst market volatility, focusing on the AI industry chain and defensive assets like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and insurance for stable returns [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index has reached its highest level since 2021, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 2.5% on Wednesday, surpassing 27,800 points [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a new high since 2021, indicating a strong market performance [1] - Year-to-date, the A-share market, represented by the CSI 300, has remained relatively flat, while the Shanghai Composite Index has been consolidating since mid-month [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a "slow bull" pattern with balanced growth in both new and old economies, driven by the resonance of domestic and foreign capital and the recovery of earnings valuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the first quarter may see continued space for the Hong Kong stock market due to the resonance of liquidity, capital, and earnings [1] - It is recommended to adopt an investment mindset rather than a speculative one when considering opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The period from the Spring Festival to March could be a critical time for assessing the annual potential and style shifts in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on quality leaders in AI chains, specialty consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Mid-term recommendations include overweighting resource products, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a strong bullish phase since October 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4200 points and daily trading volume exceeding 4 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market rally [1][2]. Market Cycle Analysis - The current market is characterized as being in the "summer" phase, with active trading, rapid sector rotation, and widespread profit-making, but without signs of extreme exuberance or bubble formation [2][3]. - The market's valuation remains attractive, with the CSI 300's dynamic P/E ratio around 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2][3]. Historical Context and Comparisons - The current market conditions are compared favorably to Japan's historical market performance, highlighting that China's financial system is more stable and its policy responses are more decisive [4][5]. - China's economic transition is supported by strong manufacturing capabilities and the growth of new economic sectors, unlike Japan's experience during its economic downturn [6][7]. Investment Focus for 2026 - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes a shift from heavy assets to hard assets, with sectors like rare earths, energy metals, and chemicals gaining pricing power due to global supply constraints [7][8]. - Key structural investment areas include technology innovation, biomedicine, gold and hard assets, revaluation of Chinese manufacturing, and high-dividend assets [8][9][10][11][12].

Core Conclusion - This week, broad-based ETFs experienced concentrated redemptions, and the inflow of leveraged funds slowed down, leading the market into a phase of volatility and consolidation [1][5] - Historically, signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals [2][6] - Current policies aim to support market stability and growth, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced structural allocation recommended, particularly favoring technology and AI applications, while also paying attention to cyclical sectors, real estate, and consumer services [1][5][7] Market Liquidity and ETF Redemptions - Recent changes in A-share liquidity show marginal shifts, with the minimum margin requirement for financing raised from 80% to 100%, resulting in a slowdown of leveraged fund inflows [1][6] - Broad-based ETFs have seen significant net redemptions, totaling over 500 billion since mid-January, with the CSI 300 index ETF experiencing net redemptions of 325.9 billion and the CSI 1000 index ETF seeing 81.9 billion in redemptions [1][6] Historical Context of Spring Rallies - The end of spring rallies is often signaled by substantial policy tightening, as seen in historical examples such as the increase in stamp duty in May 2007 and regulatory changes in March 2017 [2][6] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have also led to abrupt market declines [2][6] - Deteriorating fundamentals, such as lower-than-expected economic targets or industrial profit growth, can contribute to the end of spring rallies [2][6] Future Market Outlook - Current policies remain supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant, and industry and thematic ETF subscriptions remain active despite the increase in margin requirements [7] - The ongoing spring rally is viewed as part of a broader bull market that began in 2024, with expectations for further policy support to boost macroeconomic performance [3][7] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is expected to remain a key focus, with opportunities also present in value sectors such as resources and real estate [3][7]