（来源：上银基金管理有限公司） 2025年11月19日，人工智能行业再迎利好冲击：英伟达三季报营收570亿美元，同比增长62%，其股价 盘后直线飙升，一度涨超6%。（注：数据来源Wind，2025/11/20） 亮眼财务数据让人工智能大势更加确定。然而，资本市场的历史一再告诉我们：即便是最真实的革命， 也往往伴随着阴影。 来源：市场投研资讯 当前，美股科技"七巨头"在标普500指数中的权重占比为47%，AI主题相关标的集中度已升至历史极 值。（注：数据来源iFinD，截至2025Q3） 2022-2025年美股七巨头在标普500指数中权重 注：数据来源iFinD，统计区间2022Q1-2025Q3，历史过往仅供参考，不预示未来表现。 价格高位之下，脆弱性随之上升。那么在海外科技股交易如此拥挤的当下，是否存在一个更底层、更能 抵御技术路径不确定性的投资机会？能与人工智能并列的主线究竟是什么？ 诚然，所有颠覆性技术的早期发展都带有风险投资的色彩，其最终形态和赢家充满不确定性。在1990年 代的互联网泡沫中，我们不知道最终胜出的会是亚马逊、谷歌，还是那些早已湮没无名的公司。这种不 确定性，让科技公司的技术路线充满了 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for China's economy and A-share market in 2026, highlighting the potential for high-quality development and the importance of sectors such as technology, cyclical industries, and manufacturing [3][5][11]. Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economy will maintain resilience and enter a new phase of high-quality development in 2026, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5]. - Macro policies are expected to shift from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments to a more normalized approach, focusing on technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new productive forces [5]. - External demand is anticipated to remain robust, while internal demand will rely on fiscal efforts to stimulate investment in human capital and consumer supply [5]. A-share Market Trends - The A-share market has been on a rising trend since 2025, with active trading observed. There are differing opinions on whether this upward trend will continue in 2026, with some institutions expecting a comprehensive market rally while others foresee a slowdown in growth [7][8]. - By mid-2026, it is expected that the "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" will successively appear, potentially triggering a comprehensive market rally [8]. - The overall sentiment is that the A-share market's upward momentum is far from over, with expectations that it may challenge levels not seen in the past decade [8]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include technology, cyclical industries, and manufacturing, with specific attention to areas such as AI, robotics, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [11]. - Institutions suggest that resource products may emerge as a new mainline direction following technology, driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and domestic inventory replenishment [11]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to remain central to market dynamics, with potential for significant growth [11]. Capital Flow Insights - Residents are identified as the most significant source of funds in the A-share market, with current trends resembling those seen in 2015. High-risk preference funds have entered the market rapidly, while medium-risk preference funds may represent the next incremental growth phase [9].

Export Performance - In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month, and below the Wind consensus expectation of 3.1%[1] - The export decline is attributed to a high base effect and weakening external demand, with the new export orders PMI falling to 45.9, down nearly 2 percentage points from last month[1] - Exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed significant declines, with exports to Japan down 5.7% and to South Korea down 13.0%[2][3] Product Categories - Labor-intensive products saw a sharp decline, with exports of bags, textiles, and footwear down by 25.7%, 16.0%, and 21.0% respectively, collectively dragging down exports by approximately 2.1 percentage points[3][4] - High-tech products, however, supported export growth, with integrated circuits and automobiles growing by 26.9% and 34.0% respectively, contributing 5.1 percentage points to overall export performance[4][5] Import Trends - Imports grew by only 1.0% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear structural divergence[5] - Agricultural imports remained resilient, with a 7.0% increase, particularly driven by a 11.4% rise in soybean imports due to increased procurement from Brazil[5][6] - Energy and machinery imports faced declines, with coal and crude oil imports down by 27.5% and 0.3% respectively, reflecting ongoing price pressures[5][6] Market Outlook - Despite the short-term pressures on exports, structural resilience remains, particularly from non-US markets like ASEAN and Africa, which continue to support export growth[6] - The easing of US-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports, while high base effects and order depletion could pose challenges in the fourth quarter[6][7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected global economic recovery, which could further impact export performance[7][8]

Core Insights - The market index is experiencing continued fluctuations at relatively high levels, with investors focusing on fundamental improvements and economic conditions following the third-quarter reports [1] - The technology sector is undergoing a structural correction, with market trends expanding towards upstream resource industries [1] - Recent CPI and PPI data for October have shown a rebound, influenced by low base effects and positive impacts from "anti-involution" measures [1] - The narrative of "re-inflation" is expected to alleviate pressure from high valuations, as price levels align with corporate profits and inventory cycles [1] - The upcoming release of monetary credit and real economy data is anticipated, with preliminary October PMI and export figures indicating a marginal economic slowdown [1] - Expectations for policy easing ahead of the December Political Bureau meeting are likely to enhance market risk appetite [1] - Current market disturbances are primarily driven by concerns over excessive AI capital expenditures overseas, though overall risks remain localized rather than systemic [1] - The market is likely to continue a pattern of oscillation and gradual upward movement [1]

Core Viewpoints - The market style is expected to rebalance in November, potentially returning to a "dumbbell" structure, as liquidity remains relatively loose and external factors like the Fed's interest rate expectations may fluctuate [1][22]. Economic Data - China's October exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3% growth, while imports grew by 1%. The trade surplus was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's $90.45 billion. For the first ten months of 2025, total trade value reached $520.46 billion, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slowing global economy, compounded by increased tariffs from the U.S. [3]. Equity Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the global macro environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing from the Fed, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [5]. - CITIC Securities suggests that resource products may become a new investment focus due to global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps, highlighting strategic resources like rare earths and lithium as having long-term investment value [6]. - China Europe Fund emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks and technology resonance, suggesting that the market's current valuation recovery is nearly complete, with future growth driven by earnings [7]. Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the recovery of real estate companies' balance sheets, with a potential bottoming out of profits. The residential market shows signs of stabilization, and companies with quality investment properties are expected to perform well [11]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a period of accelerated adjustment, with inventory clearing expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [12]. - Penghua Fund anticipates that the domestic economy will seek balance between policy support and structural optimization over the next two to three years, favoring high-quality dividend assets [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities recommends a focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive strategies, as overall credit demand is weakening [18]. - CICC predicts that monetary policy will accelerate easing due to ongoing export pressures, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19]. - Bosera Fund indicates that domestic financial policies are favorable for the bond market, enhancing supply-demand dynamics [20].

Core Insights - The private equity market is experiencing a significant increase in positions, with the stock private equity position index reaching 80.16% as of October 31, marking a new high for the year [1][2] - The rise in positions reflects a positive shift in market expectations, with a notable increase from a low of 73.93% in August [2] - The majority of private equity firms are fully invested, with 63.21% in a full position, indicating strong confidence in market conditions [2] Position Distribution - As of October 31, 80.07% of large private equity firms (over 100 billion) maintained positions above 80%, while those managing between 50 billion and 100 billion reached 85.02% [2] - Smaller private equity firms are also increasing their positions, with most categories exceeding the 80% threshold [2] Market Consensus - There is a consensus among private equity firms that a structural market trend will continue, leading to a preference for high positions [3] - Firms anticipate a potential market correction in November but believe it will serve as a buildup for the next market rally [3] Investment Focus - Private equity firms are focusing on two main sectors: technology and cyclical industries [4] - The technology sector is driven by the AI revolution and advancements in the semiconductor industry, while cyclical industries are shifting towards quality improvement and international market expansion [4] Portfolio Strategy - Current portfolio strategies emphasize a combination of core (high-quality blue-chip) and satellite (innovative growth) investments [5] - Core investments focus on undervalued quality companies across various sectors, while satellite investments target high-growth areas such as AI computing and biotechnology [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in the US stock market is primarily driven by corporate fundamentals, with improved US-China relations expected to significantly reduce potential disruptions from additional risk factors [1] Group 1: US Stock Market - The US stock market still possesses significant allocation value under the backdrop of relatively eased US-China relations and overall ample liquidity in the US [1] - Recommended sectors for investment in the US market include technology, manufacturing benefiting from re-industrialization and policy support, midstream and upstream resource products, and the nuclear power industry [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - The risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market may increase, with a focus on raw materials, sectors benefiting from exports to the US, and industries that may gain from the appreciation of the Renminbi, such as aviation and paper manufacturing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in the US stock market is primarily driven by corporate fundamentals, with a potential reduction in risk factors due to the easing of US-China relations [1] Group 1: US Stock Market - The easing of US-China relations is expected to significantly lower potential disturbances from additional risk factors [1] - The overall liquidity in the US remains relatively abundant, indicating that the US stock market still holds significant allocation value [1] - Recommended sectors for investment include technology, manufacturing benefiting from re-industrialization and policy support, midstream and upstream resource products, and the nuclear power industry [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - The risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market may increase, with a focus on raw materials and sectors benefiting from exports to the US [1] - Sectors that may benefit from the appreciation of the Renminbi include aviation and paper manufacturing [1]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a slight cooling of trading funds, with indicators of market profitability and sentiment returning to historical mid-levels, suggesting that the market correction may be sufficient [2] - Trading funds are still active, but retail and margin financing funds have shifted to net outflows, indicating a slowdown in the inflow rate of margin financing [2][3] - There is a rebound in the willingness of allocation funds to "buy the dip," with public fund positions showing signs of recovery for the first time since mid-August [4] Trading Funds Activity - The number of investors participating in trading has marginally decreased to levels seen in early September, with retail funds showing a net outflow of 13.7 billion [3][10] - The inflow rate of margin financing has significantly slowed, with a net outflow of 12.8 billion last week, marking the lowest trading activity since September 2025 [3][16] - The number of private equity fund registrations has rebounded to 270, returning to mid-August issuance levels [3] Allocation Funds Behavior - Public fund positions have shown a recovery for the first time since mid-August, with funds adopting a "barbell" strategy by increasing allocations in defensive sectors like finance while also betting on consumer sectors [4][30] - Active allocation foreign capital saw a net inflow of 7.8 billion during the last reporting period, marking a new high for 2025 [4] Northbound Capital Analysis - Northbound capital has slightly reduced its holdings in A-shares, with technology sectors being the main focus for increased investment, particularly in electronics and power equipment [5] - In the consumer sector, funds have reduced holdings in liquor and pharmaceuticals, while increasing investments in pig farming [5] Fund Flow Overview - Retail funds experienced a net outflow of 13.7 billion, with net inflows observed in banking, non-bank financials, and metals, while outflows were noted in computing and basic chemicals [6][10] - Margin financing funds saw a net outflow of 12.8 billion, with inflows into non-bank financials and basic chemicals, while outflows occurred in electronics and communications [6][16] - Public funds have seen a rebound in both new issuance and existing fund positions, with an increase in equity allocations [6][30] ETF Activity - Last week, stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 19 billion, while broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 18.8 billion, with significant inflows in sectors like metals and banking [40][41] - The average trading volume of ETFs has increased to 200 billion since mid-July, compared to 100 billion in the first half of 2025 [40] Private Equity Trends - The number of private equity fund registrations has increased, indicating a stable market environment despite recent adjustments [52][57] - The average position of subjective long-only private equity funds has risen to 78%, with a significant proportion of managers planning to increase their positions [52]