首先，中美经贸磋商提升市场预期，但地缘局势扰动市场神经。上周中美双方在英国举行了新一轮 经贸磋商，这是上周四两国元首电话沟通之后的迅速工作跟进，高效的协调进程有利于缓解市场的担 忧。当然。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移，也已经部分定价了该预期。临近周末，中东地区地缘事件 成为扰动市场神经的重要边际变量。上周五，亚太地区的股市大都由此而产生些许调整，不过总体调整 幅度不大，国内股市仍有自我稳定的韧性。 上周，两市震荡微跌，成交再次回升。沪指上周来回拉锯，周中高点接近五月中旬的高点，但最终 小幅调整，沪指收盘跌破五天均线。深圳成指上周围绕 60 天均线反复争夺，周五收盘未能收复该均 线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过了 13000 亿，连续两周回升。上周市场热点主要集中在上游资源 品和医药行业。投资风格方面，中小盘风格跌幅更大，大盘蓝筹相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指反身向上，但在 5 月中旬的高点附近遇到阻力。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下 调整，呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后，重新展开了一波反弹，上周在接近 5 月中旬的高点后，遇阻回落。这提示我们，去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的 ...

A 股策略周报 20250505 暗藏的变化 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ "对等关税"后的资产表现：欧美股市>中国权益资产、需求侧商品。自 4 月 2 日美国实施"对等关税"以来，全球风险资产大多呈现"V"型走势，截至 5 月 2 日，不同资产的表现存在明显差异：欧美股市>中国权益资产、需求侧商 品。我们认为，上述差异在于驱动因素与节奏上的差异：1）需求相关的商品 (铜、铝、原油等)直接计入了需求走弱预期，贸易谈判改善的影响有限；2）白 宫不断释放的贸易谈判的积极信号、"对等关税"实施之后的首份非农数据等， 成为驱动美股修复至 4 月 2 日收盘价以上的主要因素。3）中国权益资产主要在 平准力量、政策预期的驱动下有所修复。值得关注的是，相较于其他国家的主 动谈判，我国首先加强与非美经济体的合作，直到近期才释放出美方希望进行 关税谈判的信息，这也是市场近期开始重新定价的驱动因素。我们认为，贸易 谈判的逐步落地是市场定价重心切换的重要触发因素：从贸易摩擦本身转向经 济基本面。当下美股在 4 月非农数据较好的的催化下逐步修复到了极致，而中 国资产的修复相对节奏较慢。考虑到相较 2018 年：中国出口对美依 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. tariff situation has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, yet the A-share market has shown resilience, particularly in themes of self-sufficiency and domestic substitution [1] - The U.S. market has experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and currency, indicating investor uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the dollar's status, while China's capital market has remained stable despite some sector impacts [1] - There is a notable increase in stock buybacks and purchases by listed companies and major shareholders in China, contributing to market stability after recent corrections [1] Group 2 - The tariff policy is expected to accelerate the process of domestic substitution, especially for companies whose products are competitive with U.S. suppliers [2] - The semiconductor industry is identified as the primary battleground for domestic substitution, with opportunities across design, equipment, and materials sectors [2] - Increased tariffs on CPUs are anticipated to benefit Chinese CPU companies, while the software ecosystem remains a critical factor for certain sectors [2] Group 3 - The investment landscape presents both opportunities and challenges, emphasizing the need to assess company competitiveness and preparedness [3] - The focus for the second quarter includes sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, and resource products, with a cautious outlook due to ongoing uncertainties [3] - The military industry is expected to recover as China’s defense spending remains relatively low, influenced more by global dynamics and national security needs [3] Group 4 - The funds managed by the company have received top ratings from various authoritative institutions, reflecting a strong performance in sectors with domestic substitution advantages [4] - Specific funds, such as Changsheng High-end Equipment A and Changsheng New Emerging Growth, have achieved multiple five-star ratings across different time frames from several rating agencies [4] - The consistent high ratings indicate a well-regarded investment strategy focused on sectors poised for growth amid current market conditions [4]