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兴业期货日度策略-20250620
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]
玻璃纯碱早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:20
产业:厂库累库,交割库去库,整体累库 | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/20 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/19 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/18 | | | | | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/18 | | 2025/6/19 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 981.0 | 980.0 | 998.0 | 17.0 | 18.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1040.0 | 1038.0 | 1055.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250619
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:49
现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在170左右,沙河库1210左右 产业:厂库累库。远兴超产 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1096 1104 1087 980 953 980 997 1038 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/18) 昨日(6/17) 一周前(6/11) 一月前(5/19) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 20 ...
出海速递 | Labubu 催生反向直播带货/“短剧出海”没有秘密:三强格局松动?新面孔涌现
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-18 11:29
Group 1 - The short drama market is experiencing increased competition with players from multiple countries, including the US, China, and South Korea, entering the global scene [2] - China's foreign trade is showing resilience in a complex environment, with a more diverse network of partnerships, and there are discussions on how to further enhance exports [3] - The pool robot industry is shifting focus from "growth first" to "efficiency first," indicating a potential change in market dynamics as capital enthusiasm wanes [3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the IPO of JST Group Corporation Limited, allowing the company to issue up to 137,184,600 shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors being CICC and GF Securities [5] - Zhonglian International Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd. has completed a 3 million yuan angel round financing to expand its cross-border digital cultural and e-commerce business in Southeast Asia [5] Group 3 - AfterShip has launched an all-in-one e-commerce solution, "AfterShip One," which serves over 20,000 paying e-commerce clients globally [8] - The People's Bank of China is innovating structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, including pilot programs for cross-border trade financing [10] - Alibaba Cloud has launched multiple AI products in Europe to meet the growing demand for AI applications [7] Group 4 - SoftBank has raised approximately $4.8 billion from the sale of T-Mobile shares to fund its ambitious AI plans, including a potential investment of up to $30 billion in OpenAI [7] - Elon Musk's xAI is in talks to raise $4.3 billion through equity financing [7] - Sequoia China has open-sourced its AI benchmark testing tool, xbench, to support the development of large models and AI agents [7]
玻璃纯碱早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:07
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1096 1096 1087 980 953 974 993 1032 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/17) 昨日(6/16) 一周前(6/10) 一月前(5/19) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400 500 玻璃厂库 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250617
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 00:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - **Price Change**: From June 9 to June 16, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of Shahe Safety 5mm large - board dropped from 1121.0 to 1104.0, a decrease of 17.0; the price of Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - board decreased from 1109.0 to 1091.0, a decrease of 18.0 [1]. - **Contract Price and Spread**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 1006.0 to 980.0, a decrease of 26.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1066.0 to 1041.0, a decrease of 25.0. The FG 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 60.0 to - 61.0, a decrease of 1.0 [1]. - **Basis and Profit**: The 09 Hebei basis decreased from 120.0 to 46.0, a decrease of 74.0; the 09 Hubei basis increased from - 16.0 to 10.0, an increase of 26.0. The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 252.0 to 220.7, a decrease of 31.3; the North China coal - fired cost decreased from 874.0 to 866.3, a decrease of 7.7 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: The price of Shahe traders' glass was around 1090, with average trading volume and insufficient spot and futures sources. The low - price of factories in Hubei was around 980, with good trading volume. The new spot and futures price was 960, with average trading volume. The glass sales volume in Shahe was 103, in Hubei was 105, in East China was 106, and in South China was 103 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Change**: From June 9 to June 16, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1250.0 to 1210.0, a decrease of 40.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1210.0 to 1170.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1]. - **Contract Price and Spread**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1235.0 to 1206.0, a decrease of 29.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1193.0 to 1165.0, a decrease of 28.0; the SA09 contract price decreased from 1202.0 to 1174.0, a decrease of 28.0. The SA09 Shahe basis decreased from 48.0 to 36.0, a decrease of 12.0; the SA monthly spread 09 - 01 increased from 9.0 to 9.0 (the daily change was 6.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The North China ammonia - soda profit increased from - 116.3 to - 111.3, an increase of 5.0; the North China ammonia - soda cost decreased from 1326.3 to 1286.3, a decrease of 40.0; the North China combined - soda profit increased from - 15.8 to 28.7, an increase of 44.5 [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1170, and that in Shahe warehouses was around 1210. The factory warehouses were accumulating inventory, and Yuanxing had over - production [1].
玻璃纯碱早报-20250616
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:10
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Glass Summary Price and Change - On June 13, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan was 1113.0, with a weekly change of - 8.0 and a daily change of 0.0; FG09 contract price was 976.0, with a weekly change of - 21.0 and a daily change of - 5.0 [3] - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Great Wall remained at 1096.0 from June 6 - 13, with no weekly or daily change; FG01 contract price was 1035.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 19.0 and a daily change of - 5.0 [3] - Shahe 5mm large - plate low - price was 1096.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 30.0 and a daily change of - 8.0; FG 9 - 1 spread was - 59.0, with a weekly change of - 2.0 and no daily change [3] - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from Wuhan Changli remained at 1080.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change; 09 Hebei basis was 61.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 68.0 and a daily change of - 3.0 [3] - Hubei large - plate low - price remained at 990.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change; 09 Hubei basis was 14.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of 21.0 and a daily change of 5.0 [3] - South China 5mm large - plate low - price was 1400.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 20.0 and no daily change [3] - Shandong 5mm large - plate price remained at 1160.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change [3] Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired profit was 232.9 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 17.0 and a daily change of 2.5; North China coal - fired cost was 863.1, with a weekly change of - 13.0 and a daily change of - 10.5 [3] - South China natural gas profit was - 141.7 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 20.0 and no daily change; North China natural gas profit was - 252.9, with a weekly change of - 17.4 and a daily change of 2.5 [3] - 09FG surface natural gas profit was - 372.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 9.2 and a daily change of - 1.0; 01FG surface natural gas profit was - 312.4, with a weekly change of - 9.6 and a daily change of - 2.5 [3] Spot and Sales - Glass spot: Shahe traders' price was around 1095, with average trading volume and insufficient spot and futures sources; Hubei factories' low - price was around 980, with fair trading volume; new spot and futures price was 960, with average trading volume [3] - Glass sales: Shahe's sales rate was 94, Hubei's was 103, East China's was 102, and South China's was 94 [3] Soda Ash Summary Price and Change - On June 13, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200.0, with a weekly change of - 50.0 and a daily change of - 30.0; SA05 contract price was 1204.0, with a weekly change of - 38.0 and a daily change of - 8.0 [3] - The price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1165.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 55.0 and a daily change of - 45.0; SA01 contract price was 1153.0, with a weekly change of - 45.0 and a daily change of - 12.0 [3] - The price of heavy soda ash in South China remained at 1510.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change; SA09 contract price was 1156.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 56.0 and a daily change of - 19.0 [3] - The price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai remained at 1030.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change; SA09 Shahe basis was 44.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of 6.0 and a daily change of - 11.0 [3] - The price of light soda ash in North China remained at 1200.0 from June 6 - 13, with no change; SA month - spread 09 - 01 was 3.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 11.0 and a daily change of - 7.0 [3] - The price of light soda ash in Central China was 1180.0 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 20.0 and no daily change [3] Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda profit was - 126.3 on June 13, with a weekly change of - 20.0 and a daily change of - 50.0; North China ammonia - soda cost was 1286.3, with a weekly change of - 40.0 and no daily change [3] - North China combined - soda profit was 7.4 on June 13, with a weekly change of 23.1 and a daily change of - 48.0 [3] Spot and Industry - Spot: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1160, and that at Shahe warehouses was around 1200 [3] - Industry: Factory warehouses were accumulating inventory, and Yuanxing had over - produced [3]
《特殊商品》日报-20250613
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:10
交产业期规则目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 色素吉明 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | ટ્ટર | -140 | 405 | 289.29% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13600 | 13850 | -250 | -1.81% | | | 非标价差 | 15 | -40 | રેર | 137.50% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.55 | 46.65 | -0.10 | -0.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.50 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:43
| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/13 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | | | | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 963.0 | 998.0 | 981.0 | 18.0 | -17.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1100.0 | 1096.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1018.0 | 1056.0 | 1040.0 | 22.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:31
现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在1210左右,沙河库1230左右 产业:厂库累库。远兴超产 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1104 1113 1104 990 969 998 1015 1056 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/11) 昨日(6/10) 一周前(6/4) 一月前(5/12) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 2019 2 ...