Core Viewpoint - The company, Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited, expects to achieve a profit of approximately RMB 2.1 billion to RMB 2.3 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, representing a growth of 165% to 190% compared to last year's profit of RMB 794 million [1] Group 1 - The profit increase is primarily attributed to a rise in sales and a significant decrease in raw material costs, which outpaced the decline in product prices, thereby boosting gross profit [1] - The company plans to issue USD 400 million perpetual capital securities in June 2024 [1] - The expected profit attributable to perpetual capital securities holders for this fiscal year is approximately RMB 400 million [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that the profit attributable to equity holders will be around RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 1.9 billion for the current fiscal year, an increase of 126% to 153% from last year's RMB 751 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Product Structure**: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - **Formula**: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - **Capacity and Production**: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - **Raw Material Procurement**: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - **Product Conversion**: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Sales Channels**: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - **Seasonal Demand**: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - **Policy Impact**: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - **Sales Radius**: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - **Raw Material Inventory**: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - **Finished - Product Inventory**: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - **Pricing Logic**: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - **Cost Factors**: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - **Profitability**: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - **Paper Price Outlook**: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - **Futures Attitude**: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].

Group 1 - The paper industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper issuing multiple price hike notices since July, affecting various types of paper products [1][3] - The price increase ranges from 30 to 50 yuan per ton, with the market average prices for corrugated paper and boxboard also showing upward trends [1][2] - The price hikes are primarily driven by rising raw material costs and increased operational expenses, with companies expressing strong expectations for price increases due to low profitability [3][4] Group 2 - The paper and paper products industry reported a revenue of 681.21 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, and a profit total of 17.57 billion yuan, down 21.4% [4] - The upcoming traditional peak seasons, such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to increase demand, while inventory pressures for paper mills remain manageable [4][5] - The industry is facing severe supply-demand imbalances, with an expected production increase of 8.6% in 2024, leading to intensified competition and price wars among companies [6][8] Group 3 - In response to the low-price competition, industry associations in Guangdong and Jiangsu have initiated measures to promote high-quality development and curb "involution" in the paper industry [6][8] - Major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper have responded to the "anti-involution" initiative by issuing shutdown notices to support industry stability [8]

Group 1 - The core business of Bohui Paper Industry consists of 97.77% from the paper manufacturing sector and 2.23% from other businesses for the year 2024 [1] - Bohui Paper Industry announced on August 15 that it will hold its first extraordinary board meeting of 2025 on August 15, 2025 [3] - The company plans to increase capital for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong Bofeng Holdings International Limited, with an investment of approximately 165 million USD, raising the subsidiary's registered capital from 50,000 USD to about 165 million USD [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper Industry (SH 600966, closing price: 5.03 yuan) announced the convening of its first temporary board meeting for 2025 on August 15, 2025, to review various proposals including those related to the company and its summary [2] Group 1: Company Financials - For the year 2024, Bohui Paper's revenue composition is as follows: the paper manufacturing segment accounts for 97.77%, while other businesses contribute 2.23% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Aspects SP Main Contract Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 14, 2025, was 5318.00, with a daily increase of 0.30177%. The closing prices on previous days were 5302.00 (Aug 13), 5264.00 (Aug 12), 5246.00 (Aug 11), and 5162.00 (Aug 08) [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on these days were 647.46 (Aug 14), 645.26 (Aug 13), 639.19 (Aug 12), 637.80 (Aug 11), and 627.38 (Aug 08) [3]. - The basis for Shandong Yinxing on these days were 542 (Aug 14), 558 (Aug 13), 586 (Aug 12), 604 (Aug 11), and 673 (Aug 08), and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing were 582 (Aug 14), 598 (Aug 13), 636 (Aug 12), 654 (Aug 11), and 738 (Aug 08) [3]. Pulp Import Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, with an import profit of 60.36 yuan in Shandong; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, with an import loss of 359.53 yuan in Shandong. For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 720 US dollars, with an import loss of 43.51 yuan in Shandong [4]. Pulp and Paper Product Prices and Margins - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from August 11 to August 14, 2025 [4]. - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper decreased from 6.3015% on August 11 to 4.8347% on August 14; double - copper paper decreased from 24.1238% to 22.6500%; white card paper remained at a loss of around - 12%; and living paper decreased from 7.7189% to 6.7640% [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased from 1700 to 1660; between softwood and natural pulp increased from 435 to 460; between softwood and chemimechanical pulp increased from 2010 to 2035; and between softwood pulp and waste paper increased from 4259 to 4284 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Minfeng Special Paper (600235.SH) reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating operational challenges and reduced production capacity due to the shutdown of key paper machines [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 601 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.21% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.07 million yuan, down 68.88% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 15.04 million yuan, also down 68.92% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.043 yuan [1] Reasons for Decline - The shutdown of PM20 and PM22 paper machines in May and August 2024, respectively, led to a significant reduction in production capacity, resulting in lower overall sales volume and revenue [1] - A one-time adjustment of 11.04 million yuan in VAT credits recorded in Q1 2024 negatively impacted other income for the current period, contributing to the decline in operating profit [1] - A decrease in interest income and an increase in financial expenses further pressured operating profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a consolidated net loss of approximately HKD 38 million to HKD 43 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a consolidated net loss of approximately HKD 33.8 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The consolidated net loss for the upcoming period represents an increase compared to the previous period, primarily due to a decline in paper product sales prices amid a complex international trade environment and weak consumer market recovery [1] - The company experienced a slight decrease in revenue during the current period [1] Group 2: Government Incentives - The reduction in government incentives related to special VAT deductions for the company's subsidiary, Yuantong Paper Industry (Shandong) Co., Ltd., decreased by approximately HKD 6.3 million compared to the previous period [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in the decline of pulp and paper prices in July, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper continues to rise [1] - The cultural paper segment faces ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with rising waste paper prices providing some support for corrugated paper prices [1] Group 2: Cultural Paper - As of July 29, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper was 5,094 RMB/ton, a decrease of 57 RMB/ton (1.11%) month-on-month and a drop of 525 RMB/ton (9.34%) year-on-year [2] - Factors affecting the market include limited adjustments in paper factory pricing, moderate inventory pressure due to concentrated orders, and weak downstream demand leading to cautious purchasing by distributors [2] Group 3: White Cardboard - As of July 29, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard was 4,036 RMB/ton, down 1.25% from June and 9.02% year-on-year [3] - The market is characterized by oversupply, weak terminal demand, and cautious purchasing behavior from customers, with small paper mills offering limited-time promotions [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper - As of July 29, the average market price for corrugated paper was 3,449 RMB/ton, a decrease of 52 RMB/ton (1.49%) from June and a year-on-year decline of 5.03% [4] - The market saw mixed price movements in early July, but a price increase from large paper mills in the latter half of the month led to a slight uptick in market prices [4] Group 5: Pulp Market - The main prices for imported broadleaf pulp are around 490 USD/ton, with some sources maintaining prices at 500 USD/ton, while imported softwood pulp prices remain stable [5] - The pulp market is characterized by weak demand from the paper industry, leading to a decline in pulp prices, despite some upward pressure from market sentiment and policy expectations [5]