证券研究报告 拐点已现，积极配置 ——CXO 2024&2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好 2025年05月14日 | 分析师 | 郭双喜 | 王帅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | guoshuangxi@stocke.com.cn | wangshuai@stocke.com.cn | | 电话 | 19801116960 | 13548094491 | | 证书编号 | S1230521110002 | S1230523060003 | 1 1、股价复盘： 2、财务分析： 投资要点 ➢ 本土：业绩、订单&AI是主线。 2024.12.31至2025.04.30，医疗研发外包指数上涨0.82%，跑赢医药生物（申 万）指数0.64pct，其中药明生物（+31.55%） 、药明合联（+23.65%） 、泓博医药（+16.11%） 、凯莱英 （+7.77%）、药明康德（+7.50%）表现较好。 95% ➢ 海外：业绩分化，CDMO更强劲。2024.12.31至2025.04.30，Lonza及LABCORP领涨。从指引看跨国CXO公 司只有Lonza对CDMO业务（胶囊与健康原料CHI ...

消息面上，据一财，日前美国财政部部长表示，不希望与中国全面脱钩，但是要把医药等产业带回美国。针对美国官员的上述表态，中国医药产业从业人士 认为，美国原料药的供应大量来自于中国；在创新药开发方面，中国企业发挥的作用越来越大，如果强行脱钩，部分美国药企成本预计增加一半。 此外，5月15日，创新药龙头企业恒瑞医药正式启动H股全球公开发售，计划发行2.25亿股H股（假设超额配售权及发售量调整权未行使），其中香港公开发 售占5.5%，国际配售94.5%，发行价区间定为每股41.45—44.05港元。若全额行使超额配售权及发售量调整权，发行H股最高达2.97亿股，最高募资额可达 130.8亿港元。这意味着此次恒瑞医药募资额将成为近五年港股医药企业IPO最高募资额。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 今日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512120.SH | 医药50ETF | 0.96% | 2.93% | 华安县金 | | 516820.SH | 医疗创新ETF | 0.88% | 2.69% | 平安基金 | | 517110.SH | 创新药 ...

2025.05. 15 本文字数：4953，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马晓华 林志吟 吴斯旻 日前美国财政部部长表示，不希望与中国全面脱钩，但是要把医药等产业带回美国。 针对美国官员的上述表态，中国医药产业从业人士认为，美国原料药的供应大量来自于中国；在创新 药开发方面，中国企业发挥的作用越来越大，如果强行脱钩，部分美国药企成本预计增加一半。 南京应诺医药科技有限责任公司董事长郑维义博士对第一财经记者表示："如果美国政府鼓励药品制 造企业回归美国，可能会导致部分订单从中国转移到美国，进而影响中国医药企业的出口业务。然 而，从长期来看，美国本土制造药品的成本可能会高于从中国进口，这将难以达成美国的期望。" 近期，美国总统特朗普拟要降低美国药品价格，引发全球资本市场关注。业内人士表示，要实现这个 目的，恰恰需要中国企业的参与，只有中国药企能持续提供成本较低且质量较高的原料药和创新药研 发服务，美国药企才能更好降低经营成本。 中国原料药之重 中国是全球重要的原料药生产和出口国，承担着全球约三分之一的原料药供应任务。据中国医药保健 品进出口商会（以下简称医保商会）统计，中国原料药出口规模持续扩大，从20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a slowdown in investment and financing, leading to a gradual decline in market demand growth, which is impacting the CXO sector, resulting in intensified competition and challenges for development [1] Summary by Category Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, among 29 listed CXO companies, five, including WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical, reported revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [1][2] - 17 companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth, while 12 companies saw declines ranging from 0.6% to 40.32% [1] Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec led the sector with a net profit of 3.672 billion yuan, followed by Kailai Ying and Kanglong Chemical with approximately 300 million yuan each; however, eight companies, including Nanmo Bio and Boteng Co., reported losses [1][2] - Year-on-year, 18 companies saw net profit growth, while 11 experienced declines, with the largest drop reaching 431.11% [1] Market Dynamics - The international business is becoming a focal point for domestic CXO companies, with WuXi AppTec reporting 6.38 billion yuan in revenue from U.S. clients, a 28.4% increase, while revenue from Chinese clients decreased by 1.3% [3][4] - Kanglong Chemical's revenue from North American clients was 2.003 billion yuan, up 16.81%, indicating a strong focus on the North American market despite global trade uncertainties [4] Growth Opportunities - The CXO industry is expected to benefit from increased R&D investments and outsourcing penetration, with predictions indicating that by 2030, the scale of drug R&D and production outsourcing services in China could reach 482.3 billion yuan [5][6] - Companies like Kanglong Chemical reported a more than 10% increase in new order amounts in Q1 2025, reflecting a positive trend in order reserves [6] Competitive Landscape - The performance of leading companies is showing significant differentiation, with some like WuXi AppTec experiencing substantial order growth, while others like Tigermed are facing challenges [3][7] - Despite pressures, Tigermed reported a 20% increase in new contract amounts, indicating resilience in securing new business [7] Future Outlook - The CXO sector is transitioning from a focus on cost advantages to a dual barrier of technology and globalization, with companies expected to enhance their positions in the market as they convert order reserves into revenue [8]

【机械】科技为矛，内需为盾：推荐人形机器人和工程机械 导读： 2024-2025Q1 机械行业景气回升，半导体设备、工程机械、机器人、出口链的营收 和利润均有 所成长。由于国际贸易等外部环境的变化，我们认为后续外向型经济将 承压，科技竞争将成为主旋律， 建议重点关注科技驱动赛道：人形机器人、3C 装备 和半导体设备等；工程机械为代表的内需驱动型行业 景气度有望维持高位。 2024 年机械行业整体景气抬升。 截至 2025 年一季度末， A 股机械行业上市公司共 610 家。 2024 年 共 实 现 收 入 2.3 万 亿 元 /yoy+4.9% ， 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 1232.4 亿 元 /yoy-11.1% ， 毛 利 率 22.7%/yoy-1.00pct, 净利率 5.7%/yoy-0.96pct ， ROE6.2% ，资产负债率 52.6% ； 2025Q1 营 业 收 入 合 计 5220.8 亿 元 /yoy+8.8% ， 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 383.3 亿 元 /yoy+20.1% ， 毛 利 率 22.6%/yoy-0.4pct ，净利率 7.3%/yoy+0.69pct ...

医药行业周报 关注血透、药房等细分领域投资机遇 2025 年 05 月 12 日 ➢ 医药周观点：医药设备招投标持续复苏，重点关注血透、超声等细分领域国产替 代机遇。此外，连锁药房领域内随着中小厂商的陆续出清，龙头厂商有望借助行业加 速整合机遇迎来市占率提升。 ➢ 1）创新药：云顶新耀布地奈德肠溶胶囊获得 NMPA 完全批准，翰森制药阿美 替尼辅助适应症获批上市，建议关注国内外研发进展。2）CXO：国内需求逐步回暖， 海外需求平稳向上，且目前对关税政策免疫，看好板块龙头企业逐季度订单和报表的 持续兑现带来的估值修复，重点关注药明生物、药明康德、凯莱英和康龙化成。3） 中医药：中医药方面，后续建议关注与生育补贴息息相关的标的，例如具备儿科用药 布局的济川药业、葵花药业等。4）疫苗及血制品：持续看好静丙行业未来 3-5 年的 发展潜力，其次关注浆站数量变化及头部集中背景下吨浆利润提升驱动的行业上行周 期中潜在受益的龙头公司，重视重组人白的获批进程以及潜在的产业变革。疫苗方向 基本面整体承压但部分重点公司业绩边际改善，关注重点公司 24 年下游库存周期改 善带来的业绩拐点及 mcv4 疫苗 25 年市场拓展情况。5 ...

医药行业周报 关注血透、药房等细分领域投资机遇 2025 年 05 月 12 日 ➢ 医药周观点：医药设备招投标持续复苏，重点关注血透、超声等细分领域国产替 代机遇。此外，连锁药房领域内随着中小厂商的陆续出清，龙头厂商有望借助行业加 速整合机遇迎来市占率提升。 ➢ 1）创新药：云顶新耀布地奈德肠溶胶囊获得 NMPA 完全批准，翰森制药阿美 替尼辅助适应症获批上市，建议关注国内外研发进展。2）CXO：国内需求逐步回暖， 海外需求平稳向上，且目前对关税政策免疫，看好板块龙头企业逐季度订单和报表的 持续兑现带来的估值修复，重点关注药明生物、药明康德、凯莱英和康龙化成。3） 中医药：中医药方面，后续建议关注与生育补贴息息相关的标的，例如具备儿科用药 布局的济川药业、葵花药业等。4）疫苗及血制品：持续看好静丙行业未来 3-5 年的 发展潜力，其次关注浆站数量变化及头部集中背景下吨浆利润提升驱动的行业上行周 期中潜在受益的龙头公司，重视重组人白的获批进程以及潜在的产业变革。疫苗方向 基本面整体承压但部分重点公司业绩边际改善，关注重点公司 24 年下游库存周期改 善带来的业绩拐点及 mcv4 疫苗 25 年市场拓展情况。5 ...

周度行情前瞻暨个股推荐(GLP-1 方向)20250511 摘要 • 2024 年全年医药行业收入同比下降 0.46%，归母净利润下降 6.7%，扣 非净利润下降约 11%。2025 年一季度，医疗服务、CXO 和原料药利润增 长最快，而社区药店、科研服务等领域收入增长领先。 • 创新药板块表现突出，23 家创新属性较强的公司 2024 年总收入同比增长 23.8%，归母净利润增速显著高于行业平均水平。2025 年一季度收入和 利润继续保持增长，表明 A 股创新公司逐渐进入盈利状态。 • 科研服务产业 2024 年总收入同比增长 6.5%，但利润有所下降。2025 年 一季度收入和利润均实现正增长，相对于行业整体负增长，显示出明显的 复苏拐点，值得关注。 • CXO 产业在 2024 年收入有所下降，但在 2025 年一季度显著反弹，总收 入同比增长 13%，扣非后净利润增长 23%，表现亮眼，仅次于创新板块， 显示出较强的发展潜力。 • 化学制剂领域 2024 年总收入基本持平，2025 年一季度仅微增 0.3%，处 于稳定发展阶段。原料药板块 2025 年一季度收入下降 3.8%，但扣非后 利润增长 5% ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Key Points - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is expected to turn profitable in 2024, but profits in Q1 2025 are projected to decline by 30% quarter-on-quarter due to falling pig prices and seasonal weakness in meat consumption [1][2] - Major pig farming companies, such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, contributed 88% of the industry's profits, indicating a concentration of profitability among leading firms [1][3] - The cost optimization in pig farming for 2024 is primarily driven by a 9%-10% decrease in feed prices, while improvements in farming performance contributed only 2%-3% [1][5] - The asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies stabilized in Q1 2025, but production biological assets decreased by 4% year-on-year and 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a strategic reduction in breeding sows to mitigate future market risks [1][6] - The forecast for pig prices in 2025 suggests a downward trend, although post-Spring Festival performance may exceed expectations, necessitating a reassessment of the impact of secondary fattening [1][7] Subsector Analysis: Pig Farming Key Points - In 2024, listed pig farming companies saw a revenue increase of 2%-3% and a net profit of 31 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround after three years of losses [3][4] - The average profit per head for leading companies remains robust, with Shennong Group maintaining profits above 300 yuan per head, while other companies face potential losses [8] Subsector Analysis: Poultry Farming Key Points - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price declines, with a 15% increase in supply in Q1 2025 leading to a 40% drop in chick prices [9][10] - Despite price pressures, the profitability of parent stock chickens remains strong, while the commodity chicken segment faces significant supply-demand challenges [10] Subsector Analysis: Pet Food Industry Key Points - The pet food industry has shown sustained high growth, with a 20% revenue increase in 2024 and a 23% increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [12][14] - Export growth is expected to slow, but domestic sales are projected to accelerate due to increased consumer spending and e-commerce support [15] Subsector Analysis: Pharmaceutical Industry Key Points - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with a 3%-4% decline in revenue primarily due to the vaccine and traditional Chinese medicine sectors [31] - Notable growth was observed in the CXO, innovative drugs, and consumer healthcare segments, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics showing strong performance [30][33] - The medical device sector is anticipated to recover in the latter half of the year, with increased procurement indicating a rebound in hospital demand [34] Additional Insights - The overall food and beverage sector is facing pressure, with traditional industries experiencing high concentration and competition, while emerging sectors like beverages and snacks show potential for growth [17][22] - The liquor industry has seen modest growth, with high-end brands outperforming mid-range products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [18][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and outlook of various sectors within the agriculture and food industries, as well as the pharmaceutical sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including Junshi Biosciences, Hualan Biological Engineering, and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the investment opportunities in innovative drugs against the backdrop of global asset rebalancing, particularly focusing on KRAS G12C mutation in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [2][8]. - It emphasizes the potential for KRAS G12C inhibitors to advance to first-line treatment for NSCLC, with an estimated 30% of KRAS mutations in NSCLC being of the G12C subtype, leading to approximately 30,000 new cases annually in China [5][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - KRAS G12C inhibitors are progressing towards first-line treatment for NSCLC, with current standard therapies being PD1 ± chemotherapy [18]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly in the context of increased liquidity and risk appetite in the market, with significant data releases expected from major conferences [6][32]. 2. Pharmaceutical Industry Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 1.01% increase, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage points [39]. - Sub-sectors such as drug packaging and medical devices performed well, while innovative drugs lagged behind [39]. 3. Company Dynamics - Notable company activities include the approval of new drugs and clinical trial advancements, such as the successful Phase III trials for AstraZeneca's Breztri and Genmab's Epcoritamab [46]. - Companies like Junshi Biosciences and Innovent Biologics are highlighted for their leading positions in the KRAS G12C inhibitor market [22][23]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of patent expirations on raw material demand, projecting a significant increase in sales due to the expiration of patents for top-selling small molecule drugs [35]. - It also notes the improvement in demand for raw materials and the end of inventory destocking phases, suggesting a positive outlook for the raw material sector [35].