一方面，自7月中央政治局会议召开以来，"以我为主"的导向越发明确，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加 力。统筹短期稳增长与中长期结构优化，政策的定力为市场提供了"稳预期"的基石。另一方面，中国经 济内生动力持续释放，上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，新消费亮点频现，新产业加速成长，新动 能澎湃迸发，高质量发展引擎强劲，不断提振投资者信心。 外资机构也以实际行动投出"信任票"，一边对相关上市公司进行密集调研，一边唱多并持续上调中国股 票评级。如高盛年内已经多次上调中国主要股指目标点位，持续维持对中国股市"超配"立场。 人民币资产"磁性"不断增强，今年上半年，外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，特别是5月、6月， 净增持规模增加至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置境内股市的意愿增强。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是政策 定力、经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价值"，中 国资产的低估值、经济政策的广阔空间与科技创新潜力，恰与这一趋势形成共振。可以预期的是，随着 中国经济政策效能持续释放、科技创新不断突破，这种韧性有望释放对 ...

Group 1 - The benchmark index measuring sovereign currencies and stocks in developing economies has risen, marking its best performance in recent months due to a rebound in risk assets amid speculation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1][2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, with firms like JPMorgan and Amundi SA shifting their focus from developed markets to emerging markets like China, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][8] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has increased by nearly 0.5%, achieving its largest single-day gain in over a month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.9%, outperforming developed market indices [1] Group 2 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with market concerns about the independence of the Fed and statistical agencies growing due to recent personnel changes [2][7] - The non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, with downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 258,000 jobs, leading to a significant increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5][6] - The Philippine peso has performed best among emerging market currencies, with most Asian currencies strengthening against the dollar, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7] Group 3 - The argument for a bearish dollar index remains valid, as expectations of Fed rate cuts are likely to support emerging markets despite potential market volatility [5] - The ongoing trade policies and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [8][9] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on emerging market stocks, citing strong performance and favorable macroeconomic drivers, while Amundi SA has also shifted its asset allocation towards Europe and emerging markets [8][9]

日前，美国非农就业数据"爆雷"，搅动全球资本市场。中国资产则因经济内在稳定性与全球资本 再配置共振, 再度彰显韧性十足。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 人民币资产"磁性"不断增强，今年上半年，外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，特别是5月、6月，净增持 规模增加至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置境内股市的意愿增强。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月美国非农就业增长放缓，劳工部还大幅下修5月和6月的新增非农就业数据， 劳动力市场显著降温。数据公布当日，美股三大指数下挫，美元指数单日大跌逾100点，黄金价格再度突破 3300美元/盎司。相比之下，中国资产走出独立行情，8月4日，A股、港股主要指数稳中有升，这背后是多重结 构性力量的支撑。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是政策定力、 经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价值"，中国资产的低估 值、经 ...

证券时报记者 吴少龙 日前，美国非农就业数据"爆雷"，搅动全球资本市场。中国资产则因经济内在稳定性与全球资本再 配置共振, 再度彰显韧性十足。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月美国非农就业增长放缓，劳工部还大幅下修5月和6月的新增非农 就业数据，劳动力市场显著降温。数据公布当日，美股三大指数下挫，美元指数单日大跌逾100点，黄 金价格再度突破3300美元/盎司。相比之下，中国资产走出独立行情，8月4日，A股、港股主要指数稳中 有升，这背后是多重结构性力量的支撑。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是 政策定力、经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价 值"，中国资产的低估值、经济政策的广阔空间与科技创新潜力，恰与这一趋势形成共振。可以预期的 是，随着中国经济政策效能持续释放、科技创新不断突破，这种韧性有望释放对全球资本更大的吸引 力。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore have warned that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high valuations and weakening economic indicators, despite a strong rebound over the past three months [1][5][6] Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen sharply since April, reaching historical highs, with a 1.47% increase on Monday, closing at 6329.94 points [2][6] - Analysts predict a potential adjustment of up to 10% this quarter, with Evercore forecasting a possible decline of 15% due to tariffs impacting consumer and corporate finances [5][6] - The S&P 500 index's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently surpassed 76, indicating overbought conditions, which historically precedes market corrections [6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent economic data shows a resurgence in inflation, alongside slowing job growth and consumer spending, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [6] - Historically, the S&P 500 has performed poorly in August and September, averaging a decline of 0.7% during these months over the past 30 years [6] - Increased costs for hedging against market downturns are evident, with the implied volatility premium for put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term bearish sentiments, analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook, suggesting investors should continue holding positions, particularly in companies benefiting from the AI trend [7] - Historical patterns indicate that the S&P 500 typically experiences minor corrections of about 3% every 1.5 to 2 months and larger corrections of over 5% every 3 to 4 months [7] - Market participants appear to be adopting a strategy of buying during corrections, as evidenced by the recent uptick in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC's stock price reached 35.92 yuan as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.08% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 173.395 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - CICC is a leading investment bank in China, engaged in investment banking, equity business, fixed income, and wealth management, with headquarters in Beijing and branches in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1] IPO Performance - From January to July 2025, CICC sponsored 16 Hong Kong IPOs with an underwriting scale of 3.5 billion USD, securing the top market share [1] - CICC sponsored three out of the top five IPO projects in Hong Kong, capturing 60% of the market share in this segment [1] Capital Flow - On August 4, 2025, CICC experienced a net inflow of 25.4235 million yuan in principal funds, accounting for 0.02% of its circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, CICC faced a cumulative net outflow of 286.5784 million yuan, representing 0.27% of its circulating market value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of Chinese assets amidst the backdrop of disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which has caused fluctuations in global capital markets [1][2] - U.S. non-farm employment growth has slowed down, with significant downward revisions to the employment data for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - In contrast, Chinese assets have shown an independent upward trend, supported by multiple structural forces, including a clear macro policy direction and the release of domestic economic momentum [1][2] Group 2 - Foreign capital has increasingly shown interest in Chinese assets, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, particularly a surge to $18.8 billion in May and June [2] - The resilience of Chinese assets is attributed to a combination of policy stability, economic structural upgrades, and global capital rebalancing, aligning with the trend of diversified capital allocation and value-seeking [2] - As the effectiveness of Chinese economic policies continues to unfold and technological innovations progress, the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital is expected to increase [2]

Group 1: Impact on Economic Data Integrity - Trump's decision to dismiss the BLS director has raised concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics, with experts warning that it may lead to public skepticism regarding the accuracy of economic data [1][3] - The dismissal is seen as a politicization of data that should remain independent and credible, with long-lasting negative effects anticipated [1][3] Group 2: Labor Market Data Challenges - The July employment report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 104,000, and previous months' data revised downward by a total of 258,000 jobs [2][4] - The BLS faces systemic challenges, including funding shortages and declining survey response rates, which complicate the accurate measurement of labor supply and demand [4][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - Following the dismissal of the BLS director, a Federal Reserve governor announced her resignation, creating opportunities for Trump to appoint new members to the Fed's board [2][8] - Trump's criticism of the Fed's current leadership and potential changes in personnel could reshape the decision-making environment regarding monetary policy and regulatory discussions [7][8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs conducted a survey of 333 investors, revealing that Europe is viewed as the most attractive region for investment in the second half of this year [1] - This marks the first time since 2018 that Europe has become the primary target for investors, while interest in North America has sharply declined [1] - The report indicates that 28% of asset allocators plan to increase their investments in Europe, whereas only 2% intend to reduce their investments in the region [1] Group 2 - The European stock market is expected to outperform the U.S. market in the first half of 2025, driven by fiscal measures and a surprising return of defense spending plans [1] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market faces challenges due to concerns over tariffs and the impact of artificial intelligence trade shrinkage on the economy [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. stock market has been reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 index experiencing significant gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index also recently surpassed 3600 points, marking an annual peak [1] - Major international investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, have issued warnings about increasing market risks, citing high levels of speculative activity and record margin debt exceeding $1 trillion [1] - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is seen as a key factor that could sustain the U.S. bull market amidst rising risks [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists predict a higher than 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is earlier than previously anticipated [2] - The political landscape in Japan is shifting, with the ruling coalition facing challenges after recent election losses, which may impact the yen and Japanese stock market [3] - A series of significant political and economic events are expected in August and September, including tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve decisions, which could influence global capital markets [3]