（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，贵金属板块延续涨势，湖南白银触及涨停，豫光金铅、盛达资源、白银有色、西部黄 金、华钰矿业等跟涨。 ...

格隆汇1月5日｜A股迎来2026年首个交易日，三大指数集体高开，沪指涨0.46%报3986.97点，深证成指 涨0.8%，创业板指涨0.84%。盘面上，美军闪击委内瑞拉抓获委总统马杜罗，避险情绪再度升温，油 气、贵金属板块上涨；脑机接口板块高开，创新医疗(002173)、三博脑科等多股涨停，马斯克旗下 Neuralink将开始大规模生产脑机接口设备。 ...

上周末的美国拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件引发全球市场震荡，交易员正评估事件对全球原 油供应及该国能源行业更广泛影响的后果，原油价格出现波动，由于避险需求升温，黄金价格随之上 涨。 布伦特原油开盘一度下跌1.2%，随后收复失地，截至发稿，交易价格为每桶61.12美元，WTI原油价格 为每桶57.61美元。尽管委内瑞拉周末发生剧变，但该欧佩克产油国仅占全球供应的很小一部分，且市 场已在应对不断膨胀的供应过剩。 黄金和白银价格上涨。在美国拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，地缘政治风险上升，投资者转 向寻求贵金属的避险属性。 现货黄金周一早盘交易中一度上涨0.9%，升至每盎司4,370美元上方。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在 推翻马杜罗后，美国计划"掌管"委内瑞拉，这给这个南美国家未来的治理带来了不确定性。国务卿马可 ·鲁比奥称华盛顿将利用石油作为杠杆迫使该国进行进一步变革。 "市场现在不得不重新定价的，不仅是委内瑞拉风险，还有美国的不可预测性和军事投射能力，"贵金属 精炼商MKS Pamp SA的研究主管尼基·希尔斯在一份报告中表示。 "委内瑞拉产量的任何短期中断都很容易通过其他地区的增产来弥补，"凯投 ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced significant increases, with spot gold rising to $4373, up 0.97%, and spot silver increasing by 2.17% [1][2] - COMEX silver saw a notable rise of over 3.53%, indicating strong market interest [1][2] - Oil prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil at $57.27, down 0.05%, while ICE Brent crude oil slightly increased by 0.05% to $60.78 [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump threatened Venezuela's interim president, indicating potential further U.S. intervention, which could impact oil supply dynamics [3] - The South Korean stock market saw significant gains, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% to reach a historical high, driven by strong performances from major companies like Samsung Electronics [3] - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of restoring relations with China and highlighted opportunities for cooperation in renewable energy, biotechnology, and the silver economy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of the U.S. military action against Venezuela on global markets, particularly driving safe-haven investments into gold and reinforcing a bullish trend in precious metals [1] - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the recent military action has led to strong international condemnation, increasing tensions in the global geopolitical landscape [1] - In the base metals sector, the beginning of the new year has seen supply issues, particularly with copper due to worker strikes, exacerbating existing supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the supply side for electrolytic aluminum is facing potential production cuts, which has allowed London aluminum prices to break above key price levels [1] - Indonesian nickel miners have proposed reducing nickel ore quotas, and Vale's Indonesian operations have paused mining due to delays in production plans approved for 2026, supporting a rebound in nickel prices [1]

美国在委内瑞拉采取军事行动并抓捕该国领导人马杜罗后，全球金融市场呈现出显著的分化走势。投资者迅速涌向贵金属寻求避险，推动黄金和 白银价格扭转此前跌势，而原油市场则因全球供应过剩的宏观背景，对这一地缘政治冲击表现出罕见的"淡定"。 1月5日周一，现货黄金价格在早盘上涨近1%，攀升至每盎司4370美元附近，此前一周金价曾下跌4.4%。白银价格大涨1.7%至每盎司74美元附近， 铂金和钯金也同步走升，现货钯金涨超过3%。市场对地缘政治不确定性的本能反应，使得贵金属再次成为资金的避风港。 与此同时，原油市场的反应却并未遵循传统的"战争溢价"逻辑，反而出现下跌。尽管美国总统特朗普证实美军实施了大规模打击，但由于国际能 源署（IEA）预测2026年全球原油供应将出现创纪录的过剩，加之委内瑞拉当前产量在全球占比极低，市场普遍认为这一事件难以改变油市供需 宽松的整体格局，油价并未出现恐慌性飙升。 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对 委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。特朗普表示，美军在行动中使用了空中、陆地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by a surge in investment and geopolitical risks [2][3] - Gold prices surpassed $4500 per ounce and silver reached $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [2] - The market experienced a significant correction on December 29, 2025, with silver prices dropping by 9.08% in a single day, highlighting the volatility and risks in the market [2] Group 2 - Key catalysts for the rise in precious metals include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by high unemployment rates and lower-than-expected core CPI, which weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, further supported by the asset rebalancing cycle at the end of 2025 [3] - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in silver due to increased industrial consumption from solar energy and AI server demand, have also bolstered prices [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played significant roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [4] - Central banks have continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% increase month-over-month, indicating a strategic value in precious metals [4] - The rapid price increases have led to heightened volatility, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements for trading precious metals [4][5] Group 4 - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist due to profit-taking by investors and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [5] - Long-term prospects for precious metals remain strong, supported by ongoing global monetary easing, central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks [5] - The structural support for gold prices is reinforced by the clear direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will lower the cost of holding precious metals [5] Group 5 - The complexity of factors influencing gold prices has increased, with U.S. monetary policy and inflation remaining key determinants [6] - Silver prices are closely correlated with gold but exhibit greater volatility due to its industrial applications, making it more sensitive to market fluctuations [6] - Investors are advised to approach precious metal investments with caution due to the inherent market volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in 2025, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investment dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and emerging market conditions. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (21.20%) > global bonds (8.17%) > RMB (4.44%) > 0% > commodities (-0.20%) > USD (-9.37%) [2] - Precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with gold and silver prices increasing by 64.58% and 147.95% respectively, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over USD credit [4][12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the MSCI Developed Markets index by 6.2 percentage points, indicating a favorable environment for emerging markets amid a weaker USD [6][50] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 index rising over 16% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [6][48] - Concerns over an "AI technology bubble" led to significant volatility among major U.S. tech stocks, with a 27.37% drop in their price-to-earnings ratios early in the year [5][21] - Fund managers expressed expectations of rising interest rates and favored high-quality earnings, with 75% anticipating a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [4][41] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration led to market volatility, with gold prices surging by 14.8% in two weeks, contributing to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [4][17] - Japan's stock index and long-term bond yields reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by over 25% due to a combination of wage-inflation spirals and monetary policy normalization [7][53] - The oil market remained weak, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating between $55 and $80 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand and supply pressures [8][64] Group 4: Currency and Crypto Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.0 against the USD, with a 9.4% decline in the USD index throughout the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the RMB [8][66] - The "Genius Act" led to extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price soaring from approximately $80,000 to $158,000 before experiencing a significant drop, ending the year down 6.5% [8][60]