上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 04 月 30 日 长江电力 (600900) ——来水改善蓄能充足 降息持续增厚业绩 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 29.46 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 32.28/25.16 | | 市净率 | 3.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 3.50 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 707,254 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,286.65/9,849.80 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.82 | | 资产负债率% | 59.65 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 24,468/24,007 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 01 ...

Core Viewpoint - Under the guidance of policies, the market value management system of A-share listed companies, especially state-owned enterprises, has attracted significant attention from investors. China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Yangtze Power") disclosed its financial report and several important announcements regarding market value management on April 29 [1]. Market Value Management System - Yangtze Power has officially launched a market value management system aimed at enhancing company quality and implementing strategic management to improve investment value and shareholder return capabilities. The company plans to integrate market value management into its overall strategic planning, ensuring alignment with business development [3]. - The company will consider investor interests and returns in major decision-making processes, including corporate governance, daily operations, mergers and acquisitions, and financing, while maintaining prudent operations and avoiding blind expansion [3]. - Yangtze Power will monitor market reflections of its value and will analyze and address any significant discrepancies between market performance and company value [3]. - The company will explore capital operations, including mergers and acquisitions and share buybacks, to enhance asset quality and profitability, and will develop a dividend policy to balance shareholder returns with reinvestment needs [3]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Yangtze Power achieved operating revenue of 84.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.496 billion yuan, up 19.28% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 32.507 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.17% increase [4]. - The company’s six domestic cascade power stations generated 295.904 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2024, an increase of 19.641 billion kilowatt-hours, or 7.11% year-on-year. The revenue from the domestic hydropower sector grew by 7.87% to 74.479 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 62.51%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Yangtze Power continued to show steady growth, with operating revenue of 17.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.181 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.56% year-on-year growth [4]. Dividend Distribution - Yangtze Power announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.943 yuan per share, which includes an interim dividend of 0.21 yuan per share and a proposed final dividend of 0.733 yuan per share. The total cash dividend for 2024 is expected to be approximately 23.074 billion yuan, accounting for 71.00% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5]. - This marks the third consecutive year that Yangtze Power has distributed over 20 billion yuan in dividends, with total cash dividends of 20.064 billion yuan in 2023 and 20.092 billion yuan in 2022 [6].

点评：天合光能2025年第一季度业绩同比下滑，凸显光伏行业当前面临的挑战。光伏市场正经历的价格 波动和竞争加剧，对行业内的企业提出了更高要求。天合光能需进一步加强成本控制和创新，以此应对 市场变化，保持竞争力。 NO.2长江电力：一季度净利润同比增长30.56% 丨 2025年4月30日星期三丨 4月29日，长江电力（600900）公告称，公司2025年第一季度实现营业收入170.15亿元，同比增长 8.68%，归母净利润为51.81亿元，同比增长30.56%。净利润同比变动的主要原因是公司六座梯级电站发 电量同比增加。 NO.1天合光能：一季度净亏损13.2亿元 4月29日，天合光能公告称，公司2025年第一季度的营业收入为143.35亿元，同比下滑21.48%，归母净 利润为-13.20亿元，同比由盈转亏。归母净利润变动原因为：受光伏产业链供需影响，公司组件产品售 价同比下降，光伏组件盈利能力有所下降。 NO.3晶科能源：一季度净亏损13.9亿元 4月29日，晶科能源公告称，公司2025年第一季度营业收入138.43亿元，同比下降40.03%，归母净利润 为-13.90亿元。业绩变动主要原因是光伏组件价格 ...

Group 1: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is supported by a series of policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon energy transitions, with significant emphasis on the development of hydropower projects [11][12][13] - China's hydropower installed capacity is projected to grow from 370 million kilowatts at the end of 2020 to 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% [12][15] - Major hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Yalong River Company have plans for new installations, indicating future growth potential in hydropower capacity [15][19] - The hydropower sector has maintained profitability, with a revenue of 178.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 47.9 billion yuan, up 20.18% [19][21] - Nine out of eleven listed hydropower companies have returned profits to shareholders through cash dividends, with significant payout ratios, indicating a commitment to sharing development results with investors [19][21] Group 2: Coal Power - The establishment of a coal power capacity price mechanism is expected to assist in the recovery of fixed costs for compliant coal power plants, with a standard fixed cost of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year [24][26] - The capacity price mechanism will allow coal power companies to recover a portion of their fixed costs, with most regions set to recover around 30% to 50% of these costs in 2024-2025 [26][27] - The auxiliary service market is being continuously improved, with policies in place to enhance the compensation mechanisms for various types of power auxiliary services [29][30] - The average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.28% year-on-year, which is expected to positively impact the performance of coal power companies [38][39] Group 3: Natural Gas - The development of the industrial economy is anticipated to boost natural gas demand, with a projected consumption of 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [51][53] - A series of policies aimed at stimulating industrial growth are expected to enhance natural gas demand, with the 2025 government work report emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand [53][65] - The orderly advancement of the natural gas price linkage mechanism is expected to help gas companies manage procurement costs effectively, promoting healthy development in the gas sector [57][60]

《通知》明确，支持民营企业提升发展动能。支持投资能源基础设施，支持民营企业参股核电，投资水 电、油气储备设施、油气管网、"沙戈荒"大基地等能源重大项目。支持发展能源新业态新模式，支持民 营企业积极投资新型储能、虚拟电厂、充电基础设施、智能微电网等创新技术和模式。鼓励创新发展， 支持民营企业深度参与能源领域重大科技创新，加强科研协同攻关、成果共享。支持转型升级，鼓励民 营企业加快数字化改造和智能化升级，创新"人工智能+"应用场景，积极培育能源设备循环利用先进技 术和商业模式。 国家能源局日前发布《关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措的通知》（以下简称《通知》）， 提出促进能源领域民营经济加快发展，引导民营经济在推进能源绿色低碳转型和建设新型能源体系 中做大做优做强。 了解更多能源动态，请长按图片识别或扫描右侧二维码，关注国家能源局官方微信公众号。 推动民营企业公平参与市场。健全市场准入制度，推进油气管网运销分离，引导民营企业更便捷进入油 气市场竞争性环节；优化许可条件，支持民营施工企业积极参与电网建设。强化要素保障，将低压办 电"零投资"服务对象拓展至160千瓦及以下民营用电企业；加大电网、油气管网能源公共服务 ...

相 关 阅 读 关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措的通知 首季中国经济观察丨打破准入壁垒，民营企业加速布局能源领域 我国虚拟电厂发展提速 千亿蓝海为民营经济打开发展新空间 新华社丨激发民营经济活力 多重利好政策将出台 人民日报和音：民营企业活力展现中国经济潜力 国家能源局 国家能源局微信公众号是国家能源局新闻宣传、信息公开、服务群众的重要平台。 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，《国家能源局关于促进能源领域民营经济 发展若干举措的通知》（以下简称《通知》）28日正式发布。 通知提出，要促进能源领域民营经济 加快发展，引导民营经济在推进能源绿色低碳转型和建设新型能源体系中做大做优做强。 《通知》明确支持民营企业提升发展动能。 支持投资能源基础设施，支持民营企业参股核电，投资 水电、油气储备设施、油气管网、"沙戈荒"大基地等能源重大项目。 支持发展能源新业态新模式， 支持民营企业积极投资新型储能、虚拟电厂、充电基础设施、智能微电网等创新技术和模式。 国家能源局法制和体制改革司副司长徐欣：鼓励创新发展，支持民营企业深度参与能源领域重大科技创 新，加强科研协同攻关、成果共享。支持转型升级，鼓励民营企 ...

促进能源领域民营经济发展十条举措出炉 支持民营企业参股核电，投资水电、油气管网、"沙戈荒"大基地等重大项目 记者4月28日从国家能源局获悉，近日发布的《国家能源局关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措的 通知》（下称《若干举措》）从支持民营企业提升发展动能、推动民营企业公平参与市场、提升能源政 务服务水平等三方面，提出支持投资建设能源基础设施等十条举措，促进能源领域民营经济加快发展， 引导民营经济在推进能源绿色低碳转型和建设新型能源体系中做大做优做强。 分析指出，《若干举措》的出台，将开辟投资新赛道，释放科技创新活力，构建发展新环境，推动民营 经济成为能源低碳转型、能源安全保障、地方经济增长不可或缺的力量。 4月27日召开的国务院常务会议决定核准浙江三门核电三期工程等5个核电项目，引入一批优质民营企业 参股投资，民营企业所持股比均达到10%以上。 核电领域关系国民经济命脉和能源安全，具有很强的专业性，投资运营门槛较高。一直以来，核电项目 主要由中央企业投资和运营。2020年核准的浙江三澳一期工程，是全国首个民营企业参股投资的核电项 目，由吉利集团入股2%。2023年核准的浙江金七门一期工程，万向集团入股2%。而 ...

Group 1 - The celebration of the 100th anniversary of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions took place on April 28, highlighting the recognition of labor models and advanced workers across various sectors in Guangxi [1] - A total of 58 individuals from Guangxi were honored, including 39 national labor models and 19 advanced workers, showcasing a diverse representation from government, enterprises, and various professional fields [1] - The selection process for the awards emphasized transparency, fairness, and public participation, reflecting the importance of recognizing contributions to economic and social development in Guangxi over the past five years [1] Group 2 - The list of national labor models includes professionals from different industries, such as engineering, healthcare, and agriculture, indicating a broad spectrum of expertise and contributions [2][3][4] - Notable awardees include managers and engineers from prominent companies like Guangxi Nannan Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd. and SAIC-GM Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd., highlighting the role of industry leaders in driving innovation and productivity [2][3] - The recognition of advanced workers also features individuals from various sectors, including education, law enforcement, and healthcare, emphasizing the critical roles these professionals play in their communities [4][5]

1Q25 水电电量同比+31%，梯级蓄能调节增发，缓解电价压力。公司1Q25 水电电量显著提升，一方面 来自于年初澜沧江梯级蓄能同比增加释放蓄能，另一方面得益于托巴水电站的电量贡献。拆分来看，澜 上五厂发电量同比+8.6%，小湾/糯扎渡分别同比+12.5%/+76%。此外，我们测得1Q25 综合电价同 比-7%，电量增发缓解电价压力发展趋势 随着西藏项目开工，我们预计公司在2026-2030 年进入资本开支高峰期。我们预计公司在建硬梁包水电 站预计2025 年内完成投产；此外澜沧江上游西藏段的古水、班达、古学、班多等常规水电正在陆续核 准建设，我们预计2026-2030 年资本开支将持续增长，可能在2028 年后超过300 亿元。 盈利预测与估值 我们对于2025 年公司水电电价和汛期来水更加谨慎，因此下调2025E 归母净利润4.8%至93.3 亿元，同 比+12.5%。同时引入2026 年盈利预测，我们预计2026 年营业收入281 亿元，同比+2.8%，归母净利润 94.6 亿元，同比+1.4%。考虑到市场风险偏好变化提升估值，我们维持10.36 元目标价不变，较当前股 价上行空间为10%，维持"跑赢行 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.882 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.297 billion yuan, up 8.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.385 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 1.508 billion yuan, which is a 41.56% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company generated a total electricity output of 112.012 billion kWh, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year, driven by improved water inflow and the commissioning of new power stations [2] - The average settlement price of electricity in Yunnan province reached 0.22257 yuan/kWh in 2024, reflecting a 0.66% increase year-on-year due to tightening supply and demand [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 56.13%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased depreciation costs from new units [2] - Financial expenses for 2024 decreased to 2.675 billion yuan, down 2.04% year-on-year, due to the replacement of high-interest loans [2] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total electricity output of 21.292 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.22%, with hydropower generation increasing by 30.47% to 19.733 billion kWh [3][4] - The company’s wind power generation decreased by 10.43% to 1.46 billion kWh, while solar power generation surged by 50.64% to 1.413 billion kWh [4] - The financial expenses for Q1 2025 were 647 million yuan, a reduction of 5.00% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing debt structure optimization [4] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.54 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.04, 18.27, and 17.62 [5]