1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 increased by 3.10% compared to the previous week, reaching 1365 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [2]. - The supply is at a relatively high level currently, with few device overhauls. Production profits are still differentiated. The expected production will decline in early May as the number of overhauling enterprises increases. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building intentions of downstream enterprises. The inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, with increasing supply and weakening demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level last week, and the spot price rose. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - **L利空 Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, with decreasing daily melting volume, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract SA2509 was 1365 yuan/ton, up 3.10% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88%. The main basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 26.47% [2][8]. Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [14]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a low level in the same period [17]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 89.44%, showing a stable rebound. The weekly production was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 41.55 tons, declining from a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 54.88% [20][22][24]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, with production stabilizing [31][34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a high level in the same historical period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1340元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1365元/吨，基差为-25元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.10万吨，较前一周减少1.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2509：1340-1390区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求 ...

Group 1 - As of April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported 1347.84 points, a decrease of 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index was at 1122.40 points, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - In the Xingtai market, plans to raise coke prices have been announced, with wet quenching coke up by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke up by 55 yuan/ton, effective from April 27 [1] - Vale's CFO indicated that iron ore prices are expected to stabilize around $100 per ton, but it is too early to assess the impact of trade wars on iron ore prices [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from April 1-25 reached 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase compared to 805,130 tons in the same period last month; SGS estimates the export volume at 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from 678,698 tons [2] - As of April 24, methanol inventory at East China ports was 22.92 million tons, down from 29.90 million tons on April 17, a decrease of 6.98 million tons [2] - A company responded to inquiries regarding its low-cost soda ash production, stating there are no planned maintenance schedules for the Alashan natural soda project and that it has not received notifications about any price increase meetings [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. The supply of soda ash has decreased from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash in the day session was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; the main basis was - 41 yuan, up 20.59% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - In the downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7113 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 864,400 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak. The full - scale escalation of the Sino - US tariff conflict may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session decreased from 1358 yuan/ton to 1324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe decreased from 1329 yuan/ton to 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93%. The main basis increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.24% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy - soda joint - alkali method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - soda ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale new production capacities in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.13 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 86.44 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the effective capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand of soda ash have all changed to varying degrees. In 2024E, the effective capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, and the total demand is 3379 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 157 tons [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the heavy - soda downstream is at a high level, with a continuous decrease in daily melting volume and weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In the first quarter of 2025, China's economy started steadily, with a GDP of 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, which is higher than the 5% growth rate for the entire year of 2024 [5][24] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for March 2025 was 50.5%, indicating a recovery in market confidence [25][27] - There is a continuous increase in domestic demand, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 12.47 trillion yuan in the first quarter, up 4.6% year-on-year [5][31] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.28% this week [19] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported 4043 points, down 1.25% from the previous week [22] Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemical market is experiencing a seasonal stocking up, with the raw material price index for agricultural chemicals at 73.28 points, down 5.5% year-on-year but up 1.31% month-on-month [6][32] - The market is entering a traditional peak season, with increased inquiries and trading activity [6][32] Key Product Tracking - The price of polyester filament has decreased, while phosphate rock and monoammonium phosphate prices have remained stable [42] - The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased to 64.26% [42][44] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [7] - Beneficiary stocks include companies in the chemical and fiber sectors, such as Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co [7][47]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].

全球纯碱贸易呈现明显的区域性特征，美国、中国和土耳其是全球主要的纯碱生产国。 中国 全球主要生产地区分布 我国是全球最大的纯碱生产国和消费国，当前纯碱年产能约为3950万吨，居世界首位。我国纯碱产量基 本能够实现自给自足，因此对进出口的依赖程度不高，进出口量占全年产量的比重较低。我国纯碱出口 量在2022年达到巅峰，全年出口量为205万吨，约占当年产量的7%。1990年之前，我国一直是纯碱净进 口国，直到三大碱厂投产后，才结束了长期大量进口的局面。在工艺方面，我国纯碱生产同时具备氨碱 法、联碱法以及天然碱法。 纯碱出口方面，由于我国基本能够实现自给自足，并且价格相对较高，因此在出口方面没有明显的优 势。目前少量的出口主要面向韩国、泰国、孟加拉国、越南、印度尼西亚等新兴市场，而这5个国家占 据我国纯碱出口份额的一半以上。 2009年以前，美国、欧洲和中国是全球纯碱的主要出口国和地区。然而，近几年随着土耳其天然碱产能 的落地，再加上地理位置优势，土耳其成为欧洲和中东地区重要的纯碱供应国。土耳其纯碱的大量出口 对欧洲的传统生产企业造成了冲击，同时也对我国的出口市场形成了一定的挤压，进而导致我国在纯碱 全球贸易中的竞 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing fluctuations in supply and demand, with production levels stabilizing and prices under pressure due to various market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Qinghai's 1.1 million tons per year soda ash facility is operating stably, while Shaanxi Xinghua's 300,000 tons facility is running at reduced capacity [1]. - Current light soda ash prices are at 1,350 RMB per ton, with major regional prices for heavy soda ash ranging from 1,100 to 1,600 RMB per ton [1]. - As of April 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in China is 1.693 million tons, a decrease of 0.009 million tons (0.53%) from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that soda ash is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with production levels rebounding due to the resumption of operations at Jinshan [2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on soda ash imports is limited, as the U.S. is not a major supplier, and the overall market remains stable despite some pressure from supply and demand dynamics [2]. - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the float glass industry is stable, with minor price adjustments in specific regions, while the soda ash market remains low with subdued trading activity [3].

1、基本面：关税争端升级，宏观情绪拖累；纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游 浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1340元/吨，SA2505收盘价为1327元/吨，基差为13元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.30万吨，较前一周减少0.49%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观情绪拖累叠加纯碱基本面改善乏力，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯 ...