Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or funds analyzed Core Insights - The report introduces a new metric, portfolio skewness, to measure fund manager skill by analyzing the return distribution of U.S. mutual fund holdings, suggesting that higher skewness indicates better future performance [2][5] - The study finds that high-skewness funds significantly outperform low-skewness funds, with an annualized Fama-French-Carhart alpha difference of 2.88% before fees, translating to approximately $7.35 million annually [5][18] - The research indicates that portfolio skewness is a distinct predictor of fund performance, independent of existing skill metrics like active share and R² [5][39] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the importance of understanding mutual fund portfolio characteristics as they reflect fund manager skills and behaviors [15][21] Portfolio Skewness - Two skewness metrics are constructed: standard skewness (Pskew) and Pearson's second skewness coefficient (Pskew2), with the latter being more robust against extreme values [4][23] - The average portfolio skewness across the sample is positive, indicating a tendency for funds to hold more winning stocks [29][31] Sample Selection and Data Sources - The sample includes all U.S. actively managed equity funds from March 1980 to December 2023, with a total of 895,487 fund-month observations [27][28] Empirical Results Descriptive Statistics and Persistence of Skewness - The average Pskew is 0.265, with significant variability among funds, indicating that portfolio skewness is not randomly generated but reflects managerial behavior [29][32] Skewness and Future Fund Performance - High-skewness funds show a consistent performance advantage, with annualized alpha increasing by 0.444% for each quartile increase in skewness [40][43] - The report confirms a positive correlation between portfolio skewness and future fund performance, independent of common fund characteristics [42][44] Skewness and Other Skill Metrics - Portfolio skewness shows limited overlap with existing skill measures, suggesting it captures unique information about fund managers [46][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a consensus on the ability of high - grade credit entities to cross the debt - resolution cycle, and AAA urban investment bonds may be the most defensive when emphasizing safety while extending duration [3][20][30] - The AA(2) urban investment bonds around 1 - year in Xi'an and AA urban investment bonds around 2 - year in Tianjin have obvious inflection points, indicating that the market has priced certain risks for relevant entities or regions outside the debt - resolution boundary [3][30][32] - In the context of narrowing debt - resolution policy windows and increasing debt continuation difficulties, some weak - quality regional entities may show a similar steepening pattern, and regions like Henan should be noted [3][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Duration Selection Dilemma: To Continue Earning Returns, One Needs to Cross the Debt - Resolution Time Point - Before 2026, institutional allocation of urban investment bonds showed obvious regional sinking, and duration allocation was concentrated around the 2028 debt - resolution time window. Since 2026, the allocation has extended to 3 - 4 - year medium - and long - term urban investment bonds [9] - Comparing the top ten holdings of public funds at the end of Q4 2025 and Q2 2023, the holdings of Yunnan, Guizhou, Jilin, Tianjin, Shanxi, Guangxi, Gansu, and Ningxia increased by more than double, while those of Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai, and Beijing decreased by 20% - 30% [9][10] - From the perspective of public funds' top ten holdings, the scale of urban investment bonds held by funds reached the highest in Q1 2024 and then declined. The term structure also adjusted, with a tendency to reduce short - duration and increase long - duration bonds [11] - In 2026, the 4 - year term, which is the most popular, has crossed the debt - resolution time point. In terms of yield, credit spread, and term spread, the 4 - year term shows better performance, but one should be vigilant against valuation deviation [15][16][19] 3.2 Valuation Thinking at the Debt - Resolution Boundary: Whether Curve Steepening Occurs - **AAA Urban Investment Bonds**: The yields of urban investment bonds in each province are basically stable around the yield curve, with small differences between provinces, indicating consistent pricing and no "steepening at the debt - resolution time point". They are defensive, but attention should be paid to the differentiation between entities [20] - **AA + Urban Investment Bonds**: Some debt items in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei and other places deviate from the valuation yield curve, with deviations concentrated in specific entities or regions. There is no "steepening at the debt - resolution time point" but obvious entity and regional differentiation [23] - **AA Urban Investment Bonds**: The market does not conduct systematic sinking but gives credit premiums through yield curve deviation and term inflection points, showing "steepening at the debt - resolution time point" characteristics. For example, Tianjin's 2 - year bonds have obvious inflection points [26][30] - **AA(2) Urban Investment Bonds**: With more samples, yield curve deviation and term inflection points are more obvious, showing "steepening at the debt - resolution time point". The market is more worried about weak - quality regions with frequent negative public opinions, and the yield shows an inflection point around 1 - year [29][30]

经济观察网广道退(920680)股票已于2026年1月5日被北京证券交易所终止上市并摘牌，不再于二级市场 交易。退市后，以下事项值得关注： 近期事件 公司股票将转入全国股转系统退市板块挂牌转让。主办券商五矿证券需在摘牌日起45个交易日内完成挂 牌转让的具体安排(如股份确权、登记等)，投资者需关注后续公告。截至当前，挂牌时间尚未明确公 告。 五矿证券已设立规模2.1亿元的先行赔付专项基金，用于赔偿适格投资者因公司财务造假遭受的损失。 赔付细则及申请流程需以券商后续通知为准。 事件影响 公司退市前因财务造假(2018-2024年虚增营收占比超85%)被监管处罚，且无资产重组计划。退市板块流 动性较低，投资者需谨慎评估风险。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 公司状况 ...

她的赌注是，持续的通胀和经济名义增长的加快，将填补未来几年国家财政的任何漏洞。但投资者希望 看到具体的细节。 Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan表示："在公共财政已经极度紧张的情况下，进一步扩大支出和增加债 务发行的威胁将增加风险溢价，并可能引发债券的新一轮抛售和收益率飙升。" 1月份的动荡见证了投资者疯狂抛售债券，导致最长期限的日本国债收益率被推高至4%以上，随着影响 波及全球金融市场，美国财政部长贝森特也发表了令人担忧的评论。 高市早苗本周坚持表示，政府不会通过出售新债券来填补支出缺口，而是称她的政府将审查补贴、特别 税收措施和非税收收入，以寻找"可持续"的资金来源。 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券的首席债券策略师Naomi Muguruma表示："人们对此类措施将如何获得资金， 以及最终是否会诉诸发行赤字弥补债券的担忧正在升温。一个根本性的担忧是减税持续时间超过两年的 风险。" 历史表明这些担忧是有道理的。消费税的引入花费了大约十年的时间，随后的每次上调都导致经济按年 率计算萎缩高达11%。最后两次上调被推迟，表明了提高税收在政治上的困难，这加剧了人们对暂时降 低税收后能否轻松恢复的怀疑。 为政府的 ...

Market Performance - The Japanese stock market continues to rise, reaching a historical high, driven by renewed confidence in domestic politics and the government's economic agenda [1][3] - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed 58,000 points for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [1][3] Political Influence - The market rally is largely attributed to the political optimism following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives elections [3] - Investors are anticipating larger fiscal spending, tax cuts, and a more aggressive economic agenda as a result of this political support [3] Economic Discrepancies - Analysts warn that the stock market's enthusiasm may be ahead of the clarity regarding policy funding sources, indicating a growing disconnect between stock prices and economic fundamentals [3][4] - Japan's economy contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter for the three months ending in September, marking the first contraction in six quarters, with an annualized decline of 1.8% [4] Debt Concerns - Japan is noted to have the highest debt levels globally, with a projected debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 230% by 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of increased fiscal spending [5] Market Drivers - The current market dynamics are driven by sentiment, liquidity, and narrative rather than fundamental economic strength [6] - The global AI investment wave has also positively impacted the Japanese stock market, although this connection makes it sensitive to fluctuations in global tech enthusiasm and exchange rate volatility [7][8] Currency Impact - The depreciation of the yen has historically benefited export-oriented manufacturing companies, but this effect may diminish as the yen's value is perceived to be excessively low [9][10] - The yen has depreciated approximately 3.67% against the dollar over the past six months [11] Government Intervention - Japan has indicated potential market intervention if the yen continues to depreciate, with concerns raised by the Finance Minister regarding unilateral yen depreciation [12] Future Outlook - Despite current vulnerabilities, structural reforms in corporate governance, capital efficiency, and shareholder returns are expected to provide sustainable growth momentum [15] - Some asset management firms believe that the overall fundamentals of Japanese companies still have support, contingent on the realization of reform expectations [15][16] - There is a warning that if the pace of improvements slows, there could be downside risks to the market [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates a shift in market sentiment towards dividend stocks, as evidenced by the positive signal from the dividend style timing model released by Guotai Haitong, which shows a factor value of 0.09, up from -0.08 the previous week [1][2] - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index (H30269) has shown a recent decline of 0.86% as of February 12, 2026, despite a cumulative increase of 0.95% over the previous three days [1] - The market is currently in a phase of stock game, with institutional funds showing caution and a lack of consensus, while retail investors are driving localized activity, leading to increased market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Institutional funds are experiencing net outflows from technology and cyclical manufacturing sectors, while there is a concentrated inflow into the consumer sector, indicating a structural divergence in capital flows [2] - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index, which includes 50 securities with good liquidity and consistent dividend payments, has a one-year dividend yield of 4.50% as of February 11, 2026 [2] - The Huaxia Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159547) is noted for having the lowest comprehensive fee rate among ETFs tracking this index, with quarterly assessments for potential dividends [2]

Core Insights - The 2026 Global Asset Allocation Forum highlighted the dual nature of global markets, with AI driving tech stocks and gold/silver gaining attention, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain a key variable for market liquidity [5][6]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow similarly to last year, with a focus on boosting consumption and a structural shift in the stock market driven by technology stocks and industrial profits, particularly in non-ferrous metals and IT sectors [8]. - The new economy is projected to contribute more to GDP growth than the declining real estate sector by 2027, indicating a significant phase in China's industrial transformation [8]. Offshore Credit Market - The global offshore credit market is showing significant divergence, with the U.S. growth outlook improving while Japan and Europe face lower expectations. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, contrasting with Japan's rate hikes [10]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing structural changes due to macroeconomic volatility, inflation fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions. Key uncertainties include the impact of AI on the economy, U.S. unemployment rates, and inventory cycles [13]. - Investment strategies should focus on multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to balance risk and achieve stable returns, leveraging AI for enhanced research and execution [13]. Currency and Gold Trends - The relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is highlighted, with a long-term trend of dollar depreciation and gold appreciation expected to continue unless there are fundamental changes in U.S. fiscal policies [16][17]. - Short-term dollar stability is anticipated due to high real yields, market positioning, and seasonal trends [17]. Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing heightened volatility due to increased participation and rapid information dissemination. However, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact [21]. - Different gold investment products have unique characteristics, and the changing nature of gold's safe-haven status necessitates clear investment objectives [22]. - The precious metals sector is influenced by financial and safe-haven attributes, while industrial metals and rare earths are driven by supply-demand dynamics [22].

Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon has upgraded the weighting of the Hong Kong market to overweight by 20%, citing reduced correlation with the Chinese market and allowing for differentiated allocation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to surpass its performance in 2025, with total IPO and placement fundraising amounting to $82.3 billion last year [1] - The Hong Kong property market has recorded its first annual increase since 2021, which is anticipated to boost the stock market [1] Group 2: Earnings and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for Hong Kong companies are projected to turn positive starting July 2025, ranking second in the Asia-Pacific region after Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan [1] - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is attractive relative to regional peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, slightly below the 35-year average of 17.2 times [1] - The Hong Kong market is the furthest from its historical highs, indicating potential for catch-up [1] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include WH Group (00288), AIA (01299), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), CK Hutchison Holdings (00001), Techtronic Industries (00669), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (00027), all rated as "outperform" [1] - WH Group is highlighted as a stock with "high confidence" by the firm [1]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, with a labor force participation rate increase to 62.5%[14] - Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[17] Annual Revision - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 862,000 jobs, close to the previous estimate of 911,000[22] - The total annual job additions for 2025 were revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly addition of approximately 15,000 jobs[23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected employment data has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a less than 6% probability of a rate cut in March[28] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts before June, with potential cuts expected in June and September[28] Risks - Inflation exceeding expectations could limit the space for rate cuts, and political pressures may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[29]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 12 日 1 月理财规模季节性下降 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2026 年 1 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1 月理财规模季节性下降。我们测算，截至 2026 年 1 月末，理财规模合计 32.5 万 亿元，较上年末下降 0.8 万亿元。2026 年春节较晚，理财规模月度增长节奏可能与 春节较晚的 2021 年类似。2021 年 1 月理财规模下降了 0.66 万亿元。1 月份银行的 工作重心往往在存贷款开门红上，理财经理可能会引导客户阶段性赎回理财来冲存 款规模；此外，今年 1 月份理财收益"打榜"乱象规范可能也对理财增长产生了暂 时性的影响。我们预计 2 月理财规模将回升 1 万亿左右，存款利率较低及春节前不 少企业发放年终奖有望带动 2 月理财规模明显回升。2026 年理财规模有望增长 3 万 亿左右。 1 月理财公司固收理财平均当月年化收益率回升。2022 年初以来，理财公 ...