2025 年 12 月 07 日 宏观研究团队 推动基础设施 REITs 扩围 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | 国内宏观政策：加快战略性新兴产业集群发展 |  | 过去两周（11 月 23 日-12 月 6 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，近期中央召开的重要会议聚焦基本医疗保险制度建设、新型城镇 化规划、城市更新行动等议题。 宏观周报 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦国家新兴产业发展示范基地创建工作启动；商 业航天高质量发展行动计划推出；推动基础设施 REITs 扩围至城市更新设施、酒 店、体育场馆、商业办公设施等领域；发改委发布《关于加强数据要素学科专业 建设和数字人才队伍建设的意见》等。 地产政策方面，各地继续推进"好房子"建设，例如北京市"十五五"规划建议 持续推进住有所居，实施以公共交通为导向的综合开发，优先向轨道交通站点周 边供应 ...

证券日报网讯 12月5日晚间，惠博普（002554）发布公告称，公司拟为全资子公司香港惠华向兴业银行 长沙分行申请不超过700万美元授信提供连带责任保证担保，保证期间为债务履行期限届满之日后三 年；本次担保后，公司及控股子公司累计审批对外担保总额度为79，631.95万元，对外担保总余额为 30，907.33万元，占2024年末经审计净资产的13.34%，无逾期担保。 ...

Group 1: Policy Evolution - The anti-involution policy has undergone multiple iterations, with the central economic work conference in late 2023 first identifying "overcapacity in certain industries" at the national policy level[1] - In 2024, the focus was on industry self-discipline, but most sectors failed to balance supply and demand[1] - From July 2025, governance shifted to a three-dimensional collaboration of "administrative guidance + legal delineation + industry self-discipline," marking a new policy phase[1] Group 2: Capacity Reduction and Price Control - The current anti-involution strategy centers on capacity reduction, with price control as a supplementary measure[1] - The polysilicon sector is expected to clear 1.5 to 2.23 million tons of outdated capacity through energy consumption constraints and market acquisitions[1] - The cement industry has revised its capacity from 1.8 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons and is piloting online production monitoring[1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Measures - Energy-intensive industries like polysilicon and electrolytic aluminum are using energy consumption as a key metric, with 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity set to exit by the end of 2026 if not upgraded[1] - Heavy pollution industries such as cement and coking are facing strict environmental constraints, leading to the clearance of tens of millions of tons of capacity[1] - Resource-based industries like lithium and rare earths are tightening compliance with property rights, resulting in a 10% reduction in lithium mica capacity[1] Group 4: Market Performance - From November 29 to December 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.28%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.88%, and the S&P 500 by 0.32%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 0.69 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.04%[2] Group 5: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest crude oil inventory stands at 44.355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,000 tons to 620,000 tons[3] - The latest week saw a decrease of 530 contracts in long positions for the U.S. dollar, while short positions increased by 229 contracts[3]

"前海的区位优势独一无二，我们已将前海列为重点投资布局区域，后续将深化在新兴产业领域的合作落地！" "前海法治环境接轨国际、营商服务透明高效，不仅让企业投资安心，还兼具生态底蕴与现代气息，让产业与生活有机融合。" 12月6日，由法国东方汇理集团、英国高士集团、芬兰通力电梯、中国电建、山东魏桥等全球知名企业及机构组成的考察团深入前海探访，沉浸式感受这片 改革开放前沿阵地"向前向海向未来"的蓬勃发展活力，并由衷赞叹。 此次投资考察活动是2025深圳全球招商大会的重要环节，而就在前一天，前海以"签约40个项目，总投资额超1700亿元"的"战绩"强势登顶全市招商榜首，第 三次获得"招商优胜区"称号，多个重点项目获评2024-2025年度"优秀落户项目"。 大项目为何集聚？外企因何而来？"含新量"透出什么动态？引资额较去年增近700亿元，前海做了什么？ 一是"大"。深圳总引资额超7700亿元、项目签约数超340个，前海在其中的签约项目数占比约一成，但引资额却超过两成，这意味前海招引的单个项目投资 额较大，大项目多。 二是"外"。前海引资项目中，外资企业占比过半，比如中电控股是港资、富邦银行是台资和通力电梯来自芬兰等。 ...

Group 1 - The report on He Yuan Bio focuses on in-depth analysis and insights into the agricultural sector, highlighting key trends and potential investment opportunities [1][29]. - The report on COSCO Shipping Specialties discusses the logistics and transportation industry, providing an overview of market dynamics and future outlook [1][29]. - The industry allocation model review and update series aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of various sectors, helping investors make informed decisions [1][29]. Group 2 - The report on Connoa presents detailed findings in the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing growth prospects and market challenges [1][29]. - The series on new opportunities in leading new energy companies explores emerging trends and investment potential within the renewable energy sector [1][29]. - The fundamental background and investment outlook for Shoucheng Holdings are discussed, offering insights into the financial sector and its performance [1][29].

如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周）》2025-12-06 2、《关注港股央企红利配置价值》 2025-12-02 3、《如何看待本周科技板块反弹？》 2025-11-30 报告摘要 如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 相关报告 本周市场交易额进一步下降，交易热点集中在有色金属、科技与非银金融板块，行 业轮动明显。本周 A 股市场整体呈震荡走势，交易额进一步下降。本周轮动行情主 要由市场短期利好事件带动。有色金属板块在铜、银、锡等资源品价格突破性上涨带 动下周度涨幅较大（5.35%）。半导体与国产算力板块走势也较强，摩尔线程于本周 五在科创板上市，上市首日开盘暴涨 468%，收盘涨幅仍超 400%，市值一度突破 3000 亿。其强大的赚钱效应彻底激活了半导体产业链，带动了寒武纪、海光信息等算力 ...

策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 进入四季度下半旬，板块轮动加快。股指震荡为主;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 日期：2025-12-07 【股指期货周报20251207】板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升："十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求，扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6. 建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融、Giz券 、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's modernization requires open cooperation and mutual benefit, with a commitment to expanding its openness to the world [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a steady expansion of institutional openness and maintaining a multilateral trade system to promote international circulation and shared development [1][2] - China aims to proactively shape its international environment and seize opportunities for reform and development during the "15th Five-Year" period [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of "autonomous openness" is highlighted as a key feature of China's high-level opening strategy, focusing on independent and confident development [2] - The China International Import Expo showcased products from developing countries, indicating China's commitment to engaging with the global south [2] - The approach to openness is characterized by a strategic alignment with domestic needs while fostering positive interactions with the world [2] Group 3 - The deepening of reforms necessitates higher levels of openness, and vice versa, indicating a reciprocal relationship between reform and openness [3] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to launch full island closure operations, aiming to align with international high-standard economic and trade rules [3] - The focus will be on trade and investment liberalization, expanding market access, and creating a favorable business environment [3] Group 4 - China's openness is framed as a collaborative effort rather than a unilateral action, emphasizing mutual benefits in international projects [4] - Significant projects in countries like Serbia and Kenya demonstrate China's commitment to infrastructure and social development through the Belt and Road Initiative [4][5] Group 5 - The foreign trade sector is identified as a crucial driver of economic growth and a key mechanism for expanding openness [6] - China's foreign trade maintained its global leadership, with goods trade ranking first and service trade second globally, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion in 2024 [6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new requirements for enhancing trade quality and efficiency, focusing on goods, services, and digital trade [6] Group 6 - The optimization of goods trade involves diversifying markets and integrating domestic and foreign trade [7] - The introduction of initiatives to promote green trade reflects a commitment to sustainable development [7] Group 7 - The service trade sector is increasingly recognized as a vital component of global trade growth, with efforts to enhance service exports [8] - The expansion of service trade is seen as both a priority and a challenge, requiring effective management reforms [8] Group 8 - Digital trade is positioned as a significant area for growth, with cross-border e-commerce showing remarkable vitality [9] - Statistics indicate a substantial increase in international cargo volume at key ports, reflecting the growth of digital trade [9] Group 9 - The dual approach of "bringing in" and "going out" is emphasized as a necessary strategy for high-level openness [10] - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment to attract foreign investment while guiding global supply chain layouts [10][11] Group 10 - The promotion of reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China is highlighted as a strategy to enhance the investment environment [11] - Measures are being implemented to encourage foreign companies to reinvest, fostering a cycle of investment and growth [11][12] Group 11 - The need for a comprehensive overseas service system is underscored to support enterprises in navigating international markets [12] - Initiatives like the "Shenzhen Outbound E-Station" aim to provide extensive support for companies venturing abroad [12]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Committee emphasizes the establishment of a high-level platform for open cooperation with ASEAN, focusing on AI and enterprise-led initiatives [1] Group 1: Economic Development Initiatives - The plan includes upgrading the China-ASEAN Expo and the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit, implementing the "Nanning Channel" expansion action, and creating a perpetual exhibition [1] - It aims to enhance the development of the China-Malaysia "Two Countries, Two Parks" initiative and accelerate the construction of industrial cooperation platforms with Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Economic Cooperation - The proposal highlights the promotion of cross-border economic cooperation with Vietnam and the deepening of the Guangxi-Brunei Economic Corridor [1] - It focuses on enhancing industrial cooperation with ASEAN countries and upgrading specialized corridor-type industries [1] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The plan includes high-level construction of the Fangchenggang International Medical Open Pilot Zone and a financial open portal aimed at ASEAN [1] - It encourages deep participation in the implementation of the China-ASEAN Technology Innovation Enhancement Plan and the establishment of a high-quality China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Innovation Cooperation Center [1] Group 4: Encouragement for Domestic Enterprises - The proposal encourages more domestic companies to leverage the Guangxi platform to "go global" [1]

马斯克：SpaceX 正以 8000 亿美元估值融资的消息并不准确 华尔街日报此前报道称 SpaceX 正启动新一轮二次股票出售，若交易完成，其公司估值有望翻倍至 8000 亿美元（现汇率约合 5.66 万亿元人民币），一举 超越 OpenAI 成为全美最有价值的私营公司。与此同时，SpaceX 高管层明确表示，公司正在评估于 2026 年进行首次公开募股（IPO）的可能性。 对此，马斯克于当地时间周六否认 SpaceX 正以 8000 亿美元估值融资，但未回应关于该公司计划出售内部股份的报道。 马斯克在其社交媒体平台 X 的一篇帖子中表示：「SpaceX 以 8000 亿美元估值融资的消息并不准确。SpaceX 多年来一直保持现金流为正，且每年会定期 进行两次股票回购，为员工和投资者提供流动性。估值的提升取决于星舰（Starship）和星链（Starlink）的推进进展，以及获得全球直连手机网络的频 谱，这将大幅扩大公司可服务市场的规模。」（来源：IT 之家） 美国知名机器人公司iRobot爆雷 据报道，美国消费机器人巨头iRobot被曝陷入严重财务危机。截至11月24日，该公司欠中国深圳代工厂杉川机器人超 ...