野村资产周四称，预期美国通膨最快在今年底降至2%，惟美债殖利率短期将处于高档区间整理，除了 美债更应提高在新兴债、金融债等债息收益较高的债种布局。野村(爱尔兰)全球多元收益债券基金经理 人贺昱诚(Richard Hodges)认为，由于目前通膨仍远高于目标，美联储的降息步伐将是渐进的。美国政 府持续的财政支出将对长期殖利率造成上行压力。"最快美国通膨会在今年底降至2%，因为特朗普希望 降更多息，且美联储新任主席一定会比较听话。"贺昱诚说。其指出，目前利率期货市场已充分反映点 阵图的预期，但在特朗普运用所有影响力干预下，政策利率降幅会比预期更大。"但这是未来，目前不 会有太大变化，仅会横向盘整。"其次看好新兴市场债，他说，新兴市场债券不仅殖利率较高，也会因 美元持续下行而受惠。在新兴国家中采取多元配置的策略，看好可受惠融入欧盟及欧元区的国家如罗马 尼亚，预期其将经历利差收敛，有机会增加资本利得。 ...

近年来，俄罗斯面临严峻的财政挑战，尤其在战时经济的压力下，国家的黄金储备成了支撑其财政的关键来源。根据《莫斯科时报》的报道，俄罗斯已经连 续三年出售国家福利基金中的黄金储备，用以填补政府财政的赤字，并为国有银行提供资金以及为一些大型国家项目支付费用。随着2026年1月的到来，俄 罗斯的黄金储备已经减少了71%，从2022年的554.9吨降至160.2吨。这三年里，俄罗斯卖出了近400吨黄金，数字之庞大，不容忽视。 尽管俄罗斯是全球第 二大黄金开采国，年产黄金超过300吨，但其中一部分需要用于商业售卖，转化为市场上可流通的黄金饰品。而剩余的黄金则需要分配给俄罗斯央行及其他 财政机构，国家福利基金只是其中的一个组成部分。开源情报显示，国家福利基金的黄金储备在2023年支出196吨，2024年收入171吨，而2025年再次支出 27.2吨。如今，这个基金显然已陷入入不敷出的困境。 这一切直接威胁到俄罗斯社会的福利系统，尤其是养老金体系和退休人员保障金制度。顾名思义，国家福利基金的主要职能是保障国内福利系统的稳定运 作，确保在资金短缺时能够调动储备，维持社会平稳运转。随着俄乌冲突的持续，国家福利基金的另一项职责便是支 ...

专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯 新浪财经 康路 发自瑞士达沃斯 2026 年 1 月 21 日，在世界经济论坛（WEF）年会期间，英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋与贝莱德董事长兼 CEO拉里·芬克围绕人工智能对全球经济、基础设施、就业与长期资本的影响展开对谈。 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在主会场对话中将 AI 描述为"人类历史上规模最大的基础设施建 设"的基础，并表示这将推动全球经济中的就业增长。 在与贝莱德集团 （BlackRock） 首席执行官 Larry Fink 的对谈中，黄仁勋将 AI 描述为"五层蛋糕"，而 不是单一技术，涵盖能源、芯片和计算基础设施、云数据中心、AI 模型以及最终的应用层。 黄仁勋表示，由于 AI 五层堆栈的每一层都需要构建和运行，因此平台转型正在为整个经济创造就业机 会，从能源和建筑到先进制造、云运营和应用开发。 应用层可能侧重于将 AI 集成到金融服务、医疗健康或制造业中。黄仁勋表示："最终，这一层将是产生 经济效益的地方。" 黄仁勋表示，从能源和发电到芯片制造、数据中心建设和云运营，AI 的部署已经创造了对技术型劳动 力的需求。他补充道，应用层将带来最大的经济效益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of Tai'an City in Shandong Province to enhance the national unified market by implementing various strategies, including cross-departmental collaboration, a comprehensive factor guarantee system, and problem management through a checklist approach. Group 1: Unified Market Basic System - The implementation of a negative list system for market access is underway, with Tai'an City developing a new management model for internet rental bicycles, which has been recommended to the national level [2] - Fair competition regulations are being strictly enforced, with 27 city-level policy measures reviewed and 50 modification suggestions made, promoting Tai'an's experience in fair competition at the national and provincial levels [2] - The credit system is being deepened, with plans to complete the restoration of 1,289 cases of corporate credit by 2025, while achieving a dynamic clearance of government agency credit issues for five consecutive years [2] Group 2: Unified Market Infrastructure - The promotion of a multimodal transport "single document" pilot is being deepened, with the implementation of a dedicated railway line project for Tai'an City Logistics Company, leading to improved logistics information levels [3] - The ratio of social logistics costs to GDP in Tai'an City is 14.2%, indicating ongoing efforts to reduce overall logistics costs [3] - The completion of the Grand Canal and Qinghe River channel project has positioned Tai'an Port as the second inland port in the province capable of handling 10,000-ton trains [3] Group 3: Unified Government Behavior Standards - A thorough cleanup of market access barriers is being conducted, with over 20 policy documents related to market access reviewed [5] - Significant progress has been made in addressing issues in the bidding and tendering sector, with five practices from Tai'an being promoted across the province [5] - A review of investment attraction policies has led to the identification and elimination of 13 potentially obstructive clauses in policy documents [5] Group 4: Unified Market Supervision and Law Enforcement - A total of 26 annual key administrative inspection plans and 6 drug-related inspection plans have been published, along with 77 enterprise-related inspection items [6] - Four special evaluations of administrative penalties involving enterprises have been conducted, with 26 cases reviewed for legal compliance [6] Group 5: Unified Factor Resource Market - Efforts to strengthen energy resource guarantees have led to the establishment of a "storage city" with over 5.8 million kilowatts of energy storage capacity under construction or operation, ranking first in the province [7] - Tai'an City has successfully been approved for a pilot project for the comprehensive construction of a data factor zone in the cultural tourism sector [8] Group 6: Continuous Expansion of Opening Up - The "Tai Mountain Brand Global Tour" has been launched, with 400 enterprises participating in 76 domestic and international exhibitions [10] - The "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" initiative has led to the cultivation of over 100 new cross-border e-commerce B2B enterprises, with a total cross-border e-commerce volume of 12.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.8% [10] - Over 30 various matching activities have been held to enhance foreign trade service levels, achieving more than 3 million yuan in domestic sales [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau has outlined a mid-to-long-term vision to integrate the financial sector with national development, focusing on enhancing market advantages, supporting high-quality economic development, deepening internal and external connectivity, and safeguarding financial security [1][2]. Group 1: Enhancing Market Advantages - Hong Kong's market is characterized by high openness and internationalization, with robust legal frameworks and talent aggregation. The bureau aims to enhance stock market competitiveness, facilitate the return of Chinese concept stocks, strengthen offshore RMB business, and attract family offices by optimizing the tax system to boost asset management competitiveness [1]. Group 2: Supporting High-Quality Economic Development - The bureau plans to promote fintech to assist mainland tech companies in raising funds in Hong Kong, explore new opportunities in bulk commodities and gold trading, accelerate the development of green finance, and deepen cooperation with the Greater Bay Area carbon market pilot [1]. Group 3: Deepening Internal and External Connectivity - The bureau will expand connectivity through existing frameworks like Stock Connect and Bond Connect, including initiatives such as incorporating real estate investment trusts into connectivity schemes and optimizing cross-border payment systems. Hong Kong aims to act as a "super connector" to help mainland enterprises expand internationally and attract foreign businesses and capital [2]. Group 4: Safeguarding Financial Security - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to improve the macro-prudential management system. The Hong Kong government will work closely with regulatory bodies to enhance market supervision, prevent systemic risks, and improve cross-border risk monitoring in collaboration with national financial management departments [2].

Group 1 - Crawford & Company has announced a new global operating structure, effective January 1, which will consist of two divisions: U.S. Operations and International Operations [1] - Mike Hoberman has been promoted to CEO of U.S. operations, overseeing all U.S. businesses and reporting to interim President and CEO Bruce Swain [2] - Canada will transition into international operations under the leadership of Andrew Bart, CEO of international operations [2] Group 2 - Pat Van Bakel has been appointed as chief commercial & strategy officer, responsible for strategy formulation and execution [2] - Several leaders have been promoted within Crawford's U.S. businesses, including Paul Kottler as President of U.S. Loss Adjusting, Lance Malcolm as President of U.S. Network Solutions, and Jeffrey Sickles as President of Crawford TPA: Broadspire [3][4] - Howie Altman has been appointed as chief technology officer at Converge, tasked with overseeing the evolution of the company's technology infrastructure [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of five essential skills for thriving in the rapidly changing financial markets of 2026, highlighting the need for professionals to adapt and enhance their capabilities to stay competitive [1]. Group 1: Data Storytelling - The ability to transform spreadsheets into compelling narratives is crucial for influencing client decisions, as data alone does not drive decisions; storytelling does [1][2]. Group 2: Global Macro-Economic Insight - Understanding global capital flows, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic trends is vital for developing investment strategies and managing risks, as local perspectives are no longer sufficient [9][10]. Group 3: Signal Identification Amid Noise - Financial professionals must learn to distinguish meaningful signals from overwhelming noise in today's interconnected markets, as information overload can lead to poor judgment and missed opportunities [16][17]. Group 4: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence - AI is becoming a core capability in financial services, transforming how professionals interpret data, manage risks, and deliver value, making knowledge of AI applications a key differentiator [22][23]. Group 5: Adaptability and Continuous Learning - A growth mindset, readiness to adapt, and willingness to enhance skills are essential for standing out in a competitive job market, as change is the only constant [27][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in copper prices and the significant increase in copper inventory at the COMEX, driven by concerns over potential import tariffs and supply disruptions [1][3][6] Group 2 - As of January 20, COMEX copper inventory reached 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), marking a 1.3% increase from January 16 [3] - LME three-month copper prices rose by 0.2% to $12,833 per ton, while the Shanghai copper futures contract (2603) closed up by 120 yuan, or 0.12%, at 100,540 yuan per ton [1][2] - Analysts from Sucden Financials noted that the rising LME copper prices have led to a shift in the market dynamics, with supply and demand moving towards a more balanced state, reducing the urgency for price increases [5] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin contracts showing slight increases, while lead prices declined [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao Municipal Financial Office, in collaboration with several local financial and regulatory bodies, has issued a "Financial Support for the Full Lifecycle Development of the Marine Industry Work Plan" to integrate various financial resources and create a comprehensive financial service model for the marine industry [1][2]. Group 1: Initial Stage of Enterprises - The work plan focuses on addressing financing bottlenecks during the startup phase of marine enterprises by leveraging marine industry funds and enhancing technology innovation support [1]. - It encourages banks and insurance institutions to establish marine-specific branches to accelerate the aggregation of marine financial resources [1]. Group 2: Growth Stage of Enterprises - The plan emphasizes financial empowerment for enterprises in their growth phase, particularly through innovative financing methods such as intellectual property pledge financing and specialized credit products like fishing vessel and marine area usage rights mortgages [2]. - It promotes the use of big data to improve credit approval efficiency and introduces services like "Qing担·海洋e担" to enhance financing guarantees [2]. Group 3: Mature Stage of Enterprises - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide comprehensive services, including technology transformation loans and cross-border settlement solutions, to support the scaling of mature enterprises [2]. - The plan also includes tools for mergers and acquisitions and risk hedging, alongside the development of digital supply chain financial scenarios [2]. Group 4: Listing Stage of Enterprises - The work plan aims to enhance listing services for enterprises, facilitating capital market access through partnerships with stock exchanges and providing full-process listing guidance [2]. - It focuses on improving corporate governance and operational performance to prepare enterprises for public offerings [2]. Group 5: Overall Impact - The issuance of the work plan represents a practical step in Qingdao's efforts to deepen the "finance + industry" mechanism and align financial services with the development needs of the marine industry [2]. - The Qingdao Municipal Financial Office will continue to strengthen inter-departmental collaboration and ensure the effective implementation of the plan to support the full-chain development of marine enterprises [2].

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Circle 发文表示，Circle Foundation 正在支持联合国推进全球人道主义援助交付体系的现代 化。当前全球人道援助体系每年流转资金超 380 亿美元，但仍大量依赖缓慢且高成本的传统金融轨道。 Circle Foundation 的首笔国际资助将支持联合国难民署（UNHCR）的"数字化财政解决方案中心"，用于 升级联合国系统内的共享金融基础设施，以实现近乎即时的跨境转账，并提升资金透明度与问责能力， 帮助更多援助资金直达真正有需要的人群。 ...