不仅在马达加斯加，从非洲的加纳到南美的厄瓜多尔，越来越多国家的央行与财政部推出本土黄金收购 计划，试图遏制非法黄金流通、增加外汇储备并强化行业监管。这些计划的核心是提供有竞争力的收购 价格与快速结算，吸引矿工放弃黑市交易。 然而，实施过程面临严峻挑战，尤其是矿石来源的合规性核查。部分国家的收购计划因缺乏有效溯源机 制而遭遇失败，甚至无意中收购了来自冲突地区的非法黄金。目前，一些国家正尝试引入同位素扫描等 新技术，对矿石进行化学鉴定，以建立可追溯的供应链体系。 世界黄金协会指出，全球手工及小型金矿年产量约1000吨，其中可能有一半流入非法渠道。金价飙升不 仅推高了犯罪收入，也加剧了环境破坏与河流污染。在监管与市场双重压力下，推动黄金行业走向透明 与合规，已成为多国政府的紧迫任务。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 周三黄金市场空头主导，日内走出"诱多杀跌"的剧烈洗盘行情。亚盘开盘后金价惯性下探，首次跌破 4350美元后快速拉回，完成对4350关口的"假跌破"确认，并反弹至4380美元附近遇阻。随后空头再次发 力，价格持续震荡下行，接连跌破4300美元整数关口，最低触及4275美元一线，日内波动逾百美元。从 技术面看，黄 ...

（来源：中国宁波网） 转自：中国宁波网 2025年，黄金成为年度关键词之一，也是当之无愧的"话题之王"。黄金的一路高涨，屡屡刷新历史纪 录，又上演"过山车"式波动，点燃了无数人的投资热情，也触动了世界经济敏感的神经。 这一年，伴随金价上涨，各类黄金商品价格站上新高，但仍挡不住人们岁末年初的扫货狂欢，买婚庆三 金、投资金条首饰，情绪值直接拉满。 从金店柜台前人头攒动，到黄金理财产品热销，再到电商平台的爆单，银行与电商平台顺势而为，推出 了1克起投的积存金、金豆豆，把买金的门槛降到了一杯奶茶钱。 价格越高，话题越热，随着市场情绪外溢，人们很快发现，黄金不像股票有退市风险，也不像加密货币 一夜归零，涨价反而催生了 "抓紧上车""接盘也安全"的心理，于是，出现"越贵越买"的逆向追涨。 黄金是千年不变的支付符号，又是24小时交易的全球资产。从"天选之子"到话题之王，金价变动为何总 能引起普通人的关注？ 中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧告诉潮新闻记者：金价变动之所以引起普通人关注，是因为黄金不仅是 一种避险资产，也是文化和情感价值的象征。在经济不确定性增加时，普通投资者倾向于将资金转移到 更安全的资产上，而黄金由于其稳定性和 ...

Group 1 - The price of gold has significantly increased in 2025, with a rise of approximately 70% from the beginning to the end of the year, impacting various gold products and investors [1][3] - Specific price changes include Shanghai Gold Exchange gold bars rising from 620 CNY/gram to 928 CNY/gram, and Chow Tai Fook's gold price increasing from 799 CNY/gram to 1363 CNY/gram, resulting in a cost increase of about 28,000 CNY for young couples purchasing wedding gold [1][3] - The demand for gold investment has surged, particularly in Asia, with China leading in gold ETF inflows, indicating a growing interest among investors [8][10] Group 2 - Social media has become a platform for gold investment discussions, with over 16 million posts related to buying gold investments, reflecting the heightened interest among the public [10] - Despite the rising prices, there is a cautionary note regarding the volatility of gold investments, as many investors who entered the market at high prices have faced losses [12] - Young consumers are increasingly interested in gold jewelry, shifting from previous perceptions, and brands are responding by offering smaller weight gold products to cater to this emerging market [20][26]

Stock Market - The A-share market is expected to see a continuous improvement in net profits of listed companies, with an estimated growth rate of 4.8% for the year 2026, driven by the gradual implementation of domestic demand policies [4] - Structural opportunities are anticipated to become the norm in the market, with a potential for a "low volatility, steady rise" trend in indices [4] Gold - The bull market for gold may not have ended, as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not yet shown a turning point; however, it is advised to focus on the timing of asset trend changes rather than specific price predictions [7] - In early 2026, U.S. inflation is expected to rise, which may temporarily suppress gold performance, but a potential shift in the Fed's policy in the second half of 2026 could support further gold price increases [7] Banking Wealth Management - The growth of wealth management scale is projected to reach approximately 38 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by the migration of deposits to various asset management products [10] - Asset allocation by wealth management subsidiaries is expected to prioritize safety and yield, with an increased proportion of liquid assets and a decrease in bond investments and non-standard assets [10] Bonds - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds is expected to decrease by 10 basis points in 2026, with a maintained fluctuation range of around 30 basis points [13] - Interest rates are anticipated to exhibit a "two-phase" characteristic, with a downward trend expected in the first half of 2026, followed by potential upward pressure in the second half due to rising inflation and improving credit conditions [13] Public Funds - Active equity funds are seen to have both opportunities and potential, with significant improvement in excess returns relative to the market since 2025, although there is a declining trend in fund shares due to profit-taking [16] - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" emphasizes performance benchmarks and long-term returns, which, combined with a stable upward trend in A-shares, lays a foundation for the high-quality development of active equity funds [16]

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed significant market movements in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, leading to record price increases for gold and silver [3][4]. Copper Market - In late November to December 2025, copper prices surged, reaching historical highs of $12,960 per ton on the LME and over ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai [5]. - The copper supply faced constraints due to structural issues, including declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside natural disasters [5]. - Demand for copper remained robust, driven by the dual forces of new energy and AI, leading to a three-phase price increase throughout the year [5]. - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests maintaining a focus on copper until mid-year, then diversifying into both copper and aluminum investments [5]. Aluminum Market - In early November 2025, aluminum prices rose sharply, driven by a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of capital from copper to aluminum [9]. - The rise in aluminum prices was supported by a tight supply situation and a growing belief in aluminum's long-term potential as a substitute for copper [9]. - The outlook for aluminum remains bullish, with expectations of a widening global primary aluminum deficit by 2026 [9]. Alumina Market - In July 2025, alumina prices experienced a notable increase despite a backdrop of oversupply, influenced by delayed market responses and macroeconomic sentiment [11]. - The market dynamics indicated a potential for further price declines in 2026, driven by cost pressures and competitive market conditions [11]. Zinc Market - In the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc prices began to rise due to domestic supply shortages and a shift in market dynamics towards replenishing inventories [13]. - The zinc market is transitioning from a bear market to a structural bull market, with expectations of a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [13]. Gold Market - From January to April 2025, gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, reaching $3,500 per ounce [17]. - The latter part of 2025 saw gold prices peak at $4,381 per ounce, driven by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and economic instability [22]. Silver Market - In late 2025, silver prices broke through a significant resistance level, reaching $80 per ounce, supported by high trading volumes and low domestic inventories [23]. - The price dynamics were characterized by strong investor interest and significant deviations from equilibrium price levels [23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the U.S. inflation outlook for 2026 and its implications for monetary policy and commodity trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation Expectations**: There is a general expectation of economic slowdown, but opinions on inflation vary. If inflation pressure rises significantly in 2026 while the economy weakens, it could lead to stagflation, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates and potentially leading to a tightening of policies [1][2]. 2. **Commodity Performance**: Recent strong performance in commodities like gold and copper is noted, with expectations that oil prices may rise in 2026, contingent on inflation trends in the U.S. and abroad. However, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not rise sufficiently, the trading logic for commodities will change [1][2]. 3. **CPI Predictions**: The forecast for 2026 indicates that the CPI is unlikely to show sustained upward pressure, suggesting minimal inflation. Factors contributing to this include limited policy stimulus effects, high U.S. Treasury yields, insufficient fiscal stimulus, and a diminishing impact of AI investments on GDP growth [1][4]. 4. **Core Commodity Prices**: The rebound in core commodity prices is attributed to low base effects and tariffs, with expectations that these prices will not see significant increases in 2026 as these factors fade [5][6]. 5. **Supply-Side Focus**: It is recommended to focus on supply-side disruptions for investment opportunities rather than relying on demand-side driven commodity trading [5][11]. Additional Important Content 1. **Tariff Impact**: The impact of tariffs on prices is characterized as one-time, affecting absolute prices rather than growth rates. The peak influence of tariffs is believed to have passed, with expectations of declining month-on-month growth rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on inflation [6][7]. 2. **Service Sector Stability**: The service sector, which constitutes about 70% of core CPI, is expected to remain stable due to its lagging nature. Factors such as housing, healthcare, and auto insurance costs are linked to overall societal cost trends, which have been declining [9]. 3. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The current labor market does not exhibit significant pressure, with no signs of a wage-price spiral. Job vacancies have decreased, and the labor participation rate has increased, leading to a situation where the number of job seekers exceeds available positions [10]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Caution is advised in selecting trading strategies, with a preference for commodities like gold, copper, and oil, aligned with anticipated Federal Reserve policy adjustments [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the U.S. inflation outlook and its implications for monetary policy and commodity markets in 2026.

贵金属与工业金属：板块汇报和标的更新 20251230 摘要 白银市场短期面临回调风险，上调保证金可能引发价格下跌，但长期来 看，白银作为锚定黄金的投机产品，其估值和现货逻辑依然存在，预计 明年白银价格中枢在 16,000 元/千克。 黄金市场受央行和 ETF 投资资金共振影响，牛市有望延续至明年。稳定 币发行商对黄金购买量显著增加，成为继央行购金之后的重要力量，泰 达（Tether）的黄金储备已达到 104 吨。 黄金股表现滞后于商品价格，主要受降息预期影响。目前黄金股估值处 于低估状态，重点推荐中国黄金国际、山东黄金、中金黄金、紫金矿业、 招金矿业等公司。 预计 2026 年铜价将继续上涨，均价为 11,500 至 12,000 美元，高点 可能达到 13,000 至 15,000 美元，主要推动力包括降息和复苏预期、 铜矿供应不及预期以及交易层面的扰动。 五矿资源、紫金矿业和洛钼等公司将在 2026 年受益于铜价上涨，这些 公司产量增长显著，同时副产品白银的产量也较大。 Q&A 近期白银市场波动剧烈，原因是什么？未来白银价格走势如何？ 来持久买盘。 全球稳定币市场规模目前约为 3,000 亿美元，根据花 ...

昨日周二我们认为，近期黄金大涨，投资者选择获利了结，造成金价单日大幅下跌，且年关之际假期交易清淡，市场流 动性减少，这加剧了短期的波动性，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4300美元整数位置，黄金站稳这里，短线有反 弹机会，上方压力关注4350美元附近的突破情况，向上突破关注4400美元整数位置。 日线图上，黄金刷新历史新高后，短线大幅回撤，虽然近期跌势放缓，逐渐企稳调整，但走势仍相对承压。黄金下方支 撑，可以关注4300美元整数位置，其次本周低点4274美元，若短线继续回落，主要关注4200美元整数位置，也是周线 MA10均线位置；黄金上方压力，关注周线MA5均线4335美元附近，这里也是金价从日内低点反弹遇阻位置，向上突破 关注日内高点4373美元，以及4400美元整数位置。5日均线接近形成死叉，MACD指标死叉，KDJ与RSI指标死叉，短期 技术面显示黄金仍存在下行风险。 黄金日内参考：尽管黄金在单日大跌之后，跌势逐渐放缓，但金价短期仍相对承压，反弹略显乏力。操作上建议震荡思 路对待，下方支撑可以关注4300美元，其次4274美元，继续回落则关注4200美元，上方压力可以关注4335美元，向上突 破则关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant price increases in 2025, with concerns about potential bubbles emerging as gold prices reach historical highs. The industry is undergoing transformations across various segments, with expectations for continued growth and changes in consumer behavior leading into 2026 [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, global gold prices surged, with London spot gold achieving a cumulative increase of over 60%, peaking at $4,550.12 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance in 46 years [2]. - Major gold mining companies have seen substantial stock price increases, with companies like Zhaojin Gold rising by 228.97% and several others exceeding 100% growth [4]. - Zijin Mining's market capitalization has significantly increased, crossing the 880 billion yuan mark, positioning it among the top three global listed metal mining companies [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The introduction of new tax policies in November 2025 has transformed the operational landscape of the gold industry, exempting certain transactions from value-added tax and accelerating industry consolidation [6]. - The new tax framework has led to increased order volumes for compliant companies, with some reporting an 8% increase in orders from retail clients and a 15% increase from regional brand clients [6]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards traditional gold crafting and personalized jewelry, driven by rising gold prices. The demand for customized gold jewelry has surged, with significant online engagement around "gold crafting" topics [10]. - Products like low-weight gold accessories and ancient-style gold items have gained popularity, reflecting a trend towards more affordable and personalized gold purchases [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise by 15% to 30% in 2026, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [16]. - Concerns about potential bubbles in the gold market have been raised, with some analysts suggesting that current prices may exceed short-term valuation models, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [17].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility at the end of 2025, with significant price drops in gold and silver, leading to a surge in consumer interest despite underlying risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Volatility - On December 30, 2025, spot gold fell by 4.42%, dropping below $4,330, while domestic gold jewelry prices fell below 1,400 yuan per gram, with some brands like Chow Sang Sang dropping to 1,353 yuan per gram, a multi-month low [1]. - Silver prices saw a dramatic decline from a high of $83 to $75, with a volatility exceeding 10%, followed by a near 8% rebound the next day [1]. Group 2: Causes of Price Fluctuations - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements twice within a week, causing silver futures margins to increase by 30%, which triggered mass liquidations among high-leverage speculators [3]. - The liquidity dried up before the New Year holiday, prompting institutions to take profits, leading to a sudden market downturn [3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Despite the price collapse, consumer interest surged, with gold stores experiencing high foot traffic as prices for items like a 36-gram gold bracelet dropped by 1,500 yuan overnight [3]. - Some consumers expressed regret for not purchasing more gold when prices were lower, while others opted to wait for potential further declines before buying [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The bullish camp believes in three main pillars supporting gold prices: potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, continuous gold purchases by global central banks for 13 months, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5]. - Conversely, the bearish camp warns that gold prices are currently 14% above the 200-day moving average, and a recovery in the economy or a shift in policy could lead to a price correction of up to 20% [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Experts recommend that ordinary investors limit physical gold investments to no more than 10% of liquid assets, favoring bank gold bars with a low premium of only 3% [6]. - For silver, which has a volatility rate more than twice that of gold, it is advised to keep positions under 3% and avoid leverage [6]. - A phased profit-taking strategy using a "50/30/20" method with a stop-loss line of 5%-8% is suggested to mitigate emotional trading decisions [6].