今夜，万众瞩目的8月CPI数据即将揭晓，北京时间9月12日晚8点30分，这场经济盛宴将准时开席。华尔街的普遍预期是，受 到夏末油价回升以及部分进口商品新关税的连锁反应，通胀或将呈现温和反弹之势。预测普遍指向，整体CPI环比将达到 0.3%，同比约为2.9%；而剔除食品和能源的核心CPI，预计环比亦为0.3%，同比则可能维持在3.1%。然而，在这看似一致的 预测背后，投行内部的意见却并非铁板一块。高盛便乐观地预测核心CPI环比将攀升至0.36%，摩根大通更是将这一数字推高 至0.4%。这两家巨头不约而同地将关税视为"通胀的隐形推手"，在其模型中，关税如同一个蓄势待发的发动机，一旦企业消 化完旧库存，上涨的成本便会悄无声息地传导至货架标价。 场内外的对话充满了经济学家的智慧与市场的敏锐。在一次简短的电话交流中，当被问及今晚最关键的观察点时，一位中型 基金的策略师几乎是脱口而出："千万不要只盯着总体数据，务必聚焦核心项目的细分项：关税项、住房成本、二手车价格以 及机票价格——这些数据的任何风吹草动，都可能导致我们的投资策略需要'翻页'。"这句话极具洞察力，它提醒我们，CPI 报告并非一个单一的"惊雷"，而是由无数个 ...

Group 1 - Nasdaq's proposal to the SEC marks a significant shift from the "electronic bookkeeping era" to the "on-chain settlement era" in global capital markets [3] - The proposal aims to allow stocks and ETFs to trade in both traditional digital and tokenized forms, potentially rewriting the rules of global capital flow and efficiency [3][4] - The core objectives of the proposal include enhancing efficiency with T+0 real-time settlement, expanding trading hours to 24/7, and lowering barriers for small investors through tokenization [4] Group 2 - The technical design of the proposal focuses on compatibility with traditional systems while embedding blockchain technology, ensuring that tokenized securities share the same rights as traditional securities [5] - The regulatory framework does not break existing rules but integrates blockchain tools within the traditional system, maintaining compliance with AML and KYC processes [5] Group 3 - Institutional investors have shown positive feedback towards the proposal, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley initiating tokenized securities trading simulations [6] - A survey indicated that 62% of U.S. retail investors are willing to try tokenized stock trading, attracted by real-time settlement and 24/7 trading capabilities [6] Group 4 - The SEC's historical approval logic has shifted from risk-averse prohibition to compliance-guided openness, as evidenced by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs after a lengthy denial period [9][10] - The SEC's 2025 policy shift under new leadership has created a favorable regulatory environment for Nasdaq's proposal, emphasizing support for tokenization as a natural evolution of financial innovation [11][12] Group 5 - The approval timeline for Nasdaq's proposal is projected to conclude by mid-2026, with a high probability of approval exceeding 80% based on current policy support and market demand [15][8] - The anticipated impact on global capital markets includes a significant increase in trading volume and liquidity, with estimates suggesting a potential daily trading volume exceeding $3 billion upon launch [16][17] Group 6 - The tokenization of securities is expected to reinforce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global capital flows, with the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [19] - Global exchanges are likely to engage in a digitalization race, with Nasdaq's initiative prompting other markets, such as Hong Kong and the EU, to accelerate their own tokenization efforts [20] Group 7 - Emerging markets may face increased capital outflow pressures as tokenization lowers barriers for investors seeking to access U.S. markets, potentially exacerbating regulatory challenges [22] - Developed countries will experience competitive pressures in their capital markets, necessitating rapid advancements in their own tokenization processes to retain investor interest [23] Group 8 - The impact on China's capital markets includes potential capital outflow risks and intensified competition for technology company listings, as U.S. tokenization may attract Chinese firms seeking better financing opportunities [24][25] - Hong Kong's capital markets may face challenges in maintaining their status as an international financial hub, with the risk of capital diversion to tokenized U.S. securities [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has shifted positively towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in anxiety over the global trade war, with the S&P 500 index rising by 32% since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index's earnings expectations for 2026 have been on the rise for nine consecutive weeks, currently at $295 per share, aligning with levels from late April [2] - The second quarter saw an 11% year-over-year increase in corporate earnings, significantly exceeding prior expectations, driven by resilient consumer demand and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation data from August met market expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process will proceed as planned, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% from July and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [2] - The actual tariff rate in the U.S. is approximately 9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of around 18%, attributed to "transshipment trade" and exemptions from new or existing tariff policies [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs have diminished as the S&P 500 index rises, with the Bloomberg index tracking global trade uncertainty dropping to its lowest level of the year [3] - The focus on tariffs may resurface during the next earnings season, as the impact of tariffs is expected to become more apparent in the second half of the year [4]

物价上涨，就业增长停滞，股市却屡创新高，多重信号预警之下，美国民众再度回忆起上世纪70年代的痛苦—— 滞胀。 经季节性调整后，消费者价格指数的同比变动。 数据来源：美国劳工统计局 哥伦比亚大学商学院经济学家布雷特·豪斯（Brett House）指出，今年1月时，经济学家们对未来一年经济衰退的 预期处于3年来最低水平，同时预期经济增长将保持稳健，通胀率将继续下降。然而，这些预期因白宫一系列政策及 其反复无常的执行而被彻底扭转。"我们看到今年余下时间的增长预测被大幅下调，通胀预期则被推高"。 布朗大学经济学家塞布内姆·卡勒姆利-奥兹坎（Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan）认为，当前滞胀正在酝酿且速度非常慢， 企业正等待合适的时机转嫁关税成本。一旦企业开始看到需求上升，并把更高的成本转嫁给更多消费者，通胀就会随 之而来。 上世纪70年代，通胀持续走高和反复冲击导致通胀预期无法锚定，各央行为控制通胀大幅加息，引发全球经济衰 退及金融危机，许多新兴市场和发展中经济体由此进入长时间的疲弱增长时期。 目前，美国经济虽未真正陷入滞胀，但最新数据显示这一困境正在逼近。9月15日，《卫报》引援多位经济学家 观点指出，经济" ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is beginning to overlook weak labor data, with expectations for stock prices to accelerate again next year [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are optimistic that the recent slowdown in the labor market will be temporary [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support the stock market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A cooling labor market is seen as a "tailwind" for corporate profits [1] - The relationship between labor costs and profit margins is highlighted, indicating that a 100 basis point change in labor cost growth will impact S&P 500 earnings per share by 0.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by a weak dollar, local central bank rate cuts, and historically low allocations from global funds [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Emerging Markets - The anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with concerns over Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies, is negatively impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - Hedge funds and other speculative investors have placed bearish bets against the dollar, amounting to approximately $5 billion as of early September [5]. - The weak dollar, further rate cut space from local central banks, and historically low allocations to emerging markets are expected to support the asset class [5][6]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - Emerging market bonds have delivered nearly 9% returns this year, outperforming developed market bonds, which have seen a 7.5% increase during the same period [4]. - The dollar index has declined over 8% this year, potentially marking its largest annual drop since 2017 [4]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland are identified as major beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian local currency bonds are less likely to attract funds due to already low interest rates and the preference of export-oriented economies for weaker currencies [6]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts expect previously cautious global funds to increase their investments in emerging markets, giving these markets a competitive edge over developed markets [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle indicates that the key issue for the September FOMC meeting is whether the committee will suggest that this could be the first step towards consecutive rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Outlook - The statement is expected to acknowledge a softening labor market [1] - It is anticipated that there will be no change in policy guidance [1] - The committee is not expected to endorse a rate cut in October [1]

Core Insights - Emerging markets are expected to see significant capital inflows in early next year due to a weaker dollar and resilient emerging economies, prompting global investors to shift from U.S. assets to emerging markets [1] - Bank of America analysts predict that investor optimism will increase in early next year as evidence shows limited impact of trade tensions on emerging market economies [1][2] - Emerging market bonds have provided nearly 9% returns this year, outperforming developed market bonds which have seen a 7.5% increase during the same period [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to resume interest rate cuts, contributing to the dollar's poor performance, with hedge funds holding bearish positions against the dollar amounting to approximately $5 billion [2] - Bank of America maintains an optimistic outlook on emerging markets, supported by a weaker dollar, further room for local central bank rate cuts, and historically low allocations from global funds [2] - Analysts anticipate that global funds, which have been cautious, will increase investments in emerging markets, giving these assets an edge over developed market counterparts [3] Group 2 - Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland are identified as major beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [3] - Asian local currency bonds are less likely to attract funds due to already low interest rates and export-oriented economies' preference for weaker currencies, limiting yield potential [3]

美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯当地时间13日在接受德国媒体采访时表示，美国和欧盟之间的新贸易协议虽已达成，但欧盟内部对此有很多不满 的声音。并且由于关税影响，协议将会导致欧盟输美商品价格上涨，而这部分关税负担最终可能将会由美国消费者承担。 哈祖斯援引德国经济研究所的一项研究称，即使欧盟不对美国采取报复性关税，美国也可能会"自吞苦果"，因为美国加征关税目录中，很大一部分商品是美 国特别依赖欧盟供应的商品，这些商品在新贸易协议生效后，价格会上涨，而这些额外成本，最终都会落到美国消费者身上。目前美国对欧盟进口的核反应 堆部件、起重机、卡车等商品的依赖性较强，暂时没有更好的替代来源。 哈佛大学经济学教授肯尼斯·罗戈，曾经在国际货币基金组织担任首席经济学家，他在接受德国《商报》采访时称，未来5年美国可能会出现严重的债务危 机，目前在美国投资不是一个安全的选择。 0:00 美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯表示，美国总统特朗普推出加征关税政策之后宣称，这一关税政策只对美国有利，相关的负担完全由外国来承 担。但事实上，这一说法站不住脚。 哈佛经济学教授：美关税政策效果适得其反 罗戈说，目前美国国债飙升速度令人难 ...

Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified volatility near historical highs, with expectations of increased fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals, particularly gold, is expected to continue, supported by central bank buying and a complex global trade environment [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures notes that despite a rebound in the U.S. August CPI, the overall data remains mild and aligns with market expectations, highlighting the fragility of the U.S. labor market. This has solidified market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Southwest Futures emphasizes that the current global trade and financial environment is complex, with significant uncertainty regarding tariffs. The trends of "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization" are favorable for gold's investment and hedging value [1] - UBS forecasts that gold prices will rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by favorable market conditions and increased ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Galaxy Futures suggests that the recent bullish factors for precious metals are nearing full realization, which may lead to increased volatility in the market [1] - UBS analysts indicate that the recent surge in gold prices, following a breakout from a consolidation pattern, confirms the effectiveness of the upward movement, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2] - Jefferies highlights that a weak dollar presents a significant opportunity for gold, as a declining dollar typically correlates with rising gold prices [2]