Group 1 - The market is experiencing a rebound after a period of volatility, with expectations for further upward movement in the indices [1][4][6] - There is a notable lightening of positions among investors, indicating a cautious approach despite the potential for profit during the current market cycle [3][6] - The performance of sectors such as banking, liquor, and insurance is crucial for sustaining the market rally, with a focus on their synchronized rebound [4][6] Group 2 - The current market dynamics show a strong demand for stocks, particularly in the small-cap segment, ahead of annual report disclosures [4] - The A-share market is demonstrating independent strength, contrasting with the performance of the Hong Kong market, suggesting robust capital flow [6] - Investors are advised to maintain their positions during this upward trend, as missing out on key days of market growth can lead to losses [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong performance on the last trading day of June, with notable gains in the military, pharmaceutical, and photovoltaic sectors. The pharmaceutical commercial sector saw significant late-session gains, while the liquor sector experienced a sudden surge in stock prices. Additionally, computing hardware stocks reached historical highs, indicating a positive market sentiment overall [1][2]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical commercial sector experienced a late surge, with stocks like Huaren Health rising from a near 5% drop to a nearly 7% increase, closing up 4.61% [1]. - Recent reports indicate that major liquor companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are seeing good growth in banquet market scale and opening rates, with strategies focusing on lower-end and innovative products [6]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector saw a significant rally at 13:11, with stocks like Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Shui Jing Fang rising by 6.88%, 3.48%, and 2.92% respectively by the end of trading [4]. - Analysts suggest that the overall valuation of the liquor sector is low, with frequent stock buybacks and increased dividend payouts expected to attract more capital inflow [6]. Group 3: Computing Hardware Sector - Computing hardware stocks were notably active, with companies like Jingwang Electronics and Xinyi Sheng reaching historical highs. Jingwang Electronics hit a limit-up, while Xinyi Sheng closed up 3.12% at 127.02 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 126.05 billion yuan [8][10]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to exceed supply by a factor of two in 2024, driven by strong growth in the AI sector and overseas markets [11]. Group 4: Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector showed strength, particularly in the back-contact (BC) battery segment, with stocks like Saiwu Technology hitting the limit-up and GCL-Poly Energy rising over 6% [12][13]. - The acceleration of new technologies such as BC and solid-state batteries is anticipated, with production capacity expected to exceed 100GW by the end of 2025 [15].

Group 1 - The company reported that mid-range low-priced products are performing well in sales, while high-end products are underperforming expectations [1] - The prices of products 5, 6, and 8 are stable within the company's guidance price system, while products 10 and 20 are priced slightly below the guidance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.02% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.89 percentage points [21]. - The report highlights that the price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of stabilization, while the fundamentals of the liquor industry may accelerate to a bottom [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new channels and products in the consumer goods sector, particularly as beer and beverage consumption enters a peak season [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on demand, with the white liquor index down by 1.7% this week. The report anticipates a subdued performance in the second quarter [2][13]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies with strong risk resistance such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery [2][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is benefiting from warmer weather, which is expected to boost consumption. The report suggests monitoring alpha-type stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer for potential investment opportunities [14][15]. - The snack food sector is undergoing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in new products and channels, such as Weilong and Yanjinpuzi [16]. - In the seasoning industry, the report notes resilience in basic seasoning leaders and suggests focusing on policy developments that could impact the sector [17]. Frozen Food - The frozen food sector is stable during the off-season, with companies actively developing new products. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of Anjins Food as a significant event [18]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with potential policy catalysts aiding in supply-demand improvements by 2025 [19][20]. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies expected to maintain positive growth. The report recommends focusing on companies like Dongpeng Beverage that are accelerating national and platform expansion [20].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Baidu and Jiugui Liquor has generated significant market interest, particularly in light of Jiugui Liquor's recent stock performance and the broader challenges facing the liquor industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Jiugui Liquor's stock price surged to its daily limit after the announcement of the collaboration with Baidu, closing at 44.58 yuan per share, an increase of 8.31% [1] - The company has faced substantial operational challenges, with a reported revenue of 1.42 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 49.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of only 10 million yuan, down 97.7% [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiugui Liquor's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 30.3% and 56.8%, respectively [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The stock performance of Jiugui Liquor positively influenced other major liquor companies, which saw stock price increases ranging from 1% to 4% [2] - The collaboration is seen as a potential boost for Jiugui Liquor's brand image and sales performance, especially given the success of Baidu's own brand liquor, which sold out quickly and generated sales of 500 million yuan [3] - Market sentiment appears to be shifting positively towards Jiugui Liquor and other premium liquor brands, driven by factors such as the end of negative market sentiment and the potential for sector recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kuozi Jiao, has announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 13 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 778 million yuan, which reflects a strategic decision amidst a competitive industry landscape [1][3][23]. Dividend Distribution - Kuozi Jiao plans to distribute a total of 778 million yuan to shareholders based on 599 million shares after buyback adjustments, with the record date set for July 4 and payment date on July 7 [1]. - The company has not arranged for stock bonuses or capital reserve transfers in this distribution [1]. Dividend Trends - The company's dividend per share has decreased to 1.3 yuan in 2024, breaking the previous stable level of 1.5 yuan maintained from 2021 to 2023 [4]. - The dividend payout ratio has shown a declining trend, dropping from 58.06% in 2022 to 47.01% in 2024, indicating a reduction in shareholder returns [11]. Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao's revenue has shown consistent growth, surpassing 6 billion yuan for the first time in 2024, with growth rates of 25.37%, 2.12%, 16.1%, and 0.89% from 2021 to 2024 [5]. - However, the net profit has fluctuated significantly, with a peak of 1.727 billion yuan in 2021, a decline to 1.024 billion yuan in 2022, a recovery to 1.721 billion yuan in 2023, and a drop to 1.655 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. Return on Equity - The return on equity has been on a downward trend, falling to 16.39% in 2024 from 18.63% in 2023 and 22.48% in 2021, indicating a decline in profitability [10]. Shareholder Structure - The majority of the top ten shareholders are individual investors, with significant holdings by key executives, including the chairman and general manager, Xu Jin, who holds 19.34% of shares [15][19]. - The company has seen a reduction in institutional holdings, with only 7 funds holding shares by the first quarter of 2025, down from 149 funds at the end of 2024, reflecting a shift in market confidence [24]. Market Performance - Kuozi Jiao's stock price has experienced a downward adjustment, with a cumulative decline of 12.33% in 2025, following a peak of 62.15 yuan in August 2023 [21].

Group 1 - The liquor stocks experienced an afternoon rally, with specific companies showing significant gains [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799) rose over 5%, indicating strong market interest [1] - She De Jiu Ye (600702) increased by more than 2%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Huang Tai Jiu Ye (000995), Shui Jing Fang (600779), and Kou Zi Jiao (603589) also saw upward movement, suggesting a broader trend in the liquor industry [1]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The third Zero Carbon Collaborative Innovation Conference was held in Chengdu, focusing on the theme of "ISSB Sustainable Disclosure Standards Learning Partner" [1] - The conference attracted over 200 guests from various sectors, including enterprises, universities, and research institutions, to discuss the application and implementation of ISSB standards [1] Group 2: Key Presentations - The ISSB Chairman's advisor, Zhang Zhengwei, emphasized the transition of sustainability disclosure from non-financial to financial reporting, highlighting its significance in integrating sustainability into core business value creation [1] - Tianqi Lithium's Executive Vice President, Zou Jun, discussed the symbiotic relationship between the lithium industry and net-zero goals, stressing the importance of innovation and collaboration across the supply chain to achieve carbon reduction targets by 2030 [2] - Zhang Guohao from China Southwest Architectural Design and Research Institute introduced a new model for integrated low-carbon renovation services in the construction industry, focusing on design consulting as a key link to address market disconnections [2] - Ndidi Nnoli-Edozien from ISSB highlighted the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration in global sustainability efforts, calling for Chinese enterprises to contribute their insights for impactful global standards [3] Group 3: Initiatives and Agreements - The conference saw the signing of the "Xinglong Lake Sustainable Consensus," aimed at creating a national near-zero carbon demonstration zone through collaborative efforts in technology and resource integration [6] - The "Supply Chain ESG Management Initiative" expanded to include four new companies, enhancing its influence and supporting the construction of a sustainable supply chain aligned with the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [6] Group 4: Challenges and Focus Areas - The chairman of the Chengdu Zero Carbon Collaborative Innovation Promotion Association, Zhang Yalong, raised concerns about the stagnation of over one-third of the established 2030 sustainable development goals, particularly in areas affected by climate change [4] - The need for trust-building in social sustainability was emphasized, linking it to geopolitical issues and the broader impacts on digital and social relationships [4]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are keen on innovation, focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digital products. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao has developed a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is testing 16-degree and 6-degree variants [6][4] - The beverage sector is experiencing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. Companies are launching new products like functional drinks, electrolyte water, and sugar-free tea to meet these needs [6][4] - The snack industry is identified as a strong growth driver, catering to both emotional value and cost-effectiveness, with manufacturers introducing healthier options like konjac and quail eggs [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.35% this week, with notable stock performances including *ST Yanshi (+2.66%) and Yili Te (+1.30%) [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation in the liquor sector to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has increased by 1.48% this week, with top performers like Jindawei (+17.54%) and Huanlejia (+13.91%) [6][8] - The report reiterates investment opportunities in beverages and snacks, driven by differentiated consumer demands and health trends [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their strong performance outlook [28]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor, particularly the 1L 53-degree Flying Moutai, has significantly decreased in the market, leading to a situation where the retail price on the iMoutai app is higher than the market price, causing consumer confusion and dissatisfaction [1][8][21]. Pricing Discrepancies - The official retail price for the 1L Flying Moutai is set at 3799 yuan, while the lowest price on e-commerce platforms is 3180 yuan, indicating a price inversion [1][5]. - Other Moutai products also show price inversions, with the purchase price on iMoutai being higher than the market wholesale price for various products [8][21]. - The market price for Flying Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan, with reports of prices as low as 1950 yuan per bottle in Jinan [16][18]. Market Trends - The price of Moutai has been declining, with the wholesale price for Flying Moutai dropping by 18% since the beginning of the year [16][21]. - The price of the Snake Year Moutai has also decreased from a factory price of 2499 yuan to around 2300 yuan, with wholesale prices as low as 2180 yuan [18][21]. - The overall market is experiencing a downturn, attributed to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts on government consumption, which accounts for 15% of Moutai's sales [21][24]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting to purchase Moutai from retail stores rather than through the iMoutai app, as many products are available without the need for a lottery system [11][15]. - Some consumers have expressed dissatisfaction with the iMoutai app, leading to a decline in its user base as individuals uninstall the app after winning lotteries for products they no longer wish to buy [15][24]. Company Response - Moutai is implementing strategies to stabilize prices, including high-level visits to distributors and potential adjustments to supply policies [23][24]. - The company has introduced a "stop supply test" strategy to manage inventory and stabilize prices, although some initiatives have been quickly retracted [24][25].