Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant rebound this week, with major indices such as the CSI 300, ChiNext 300, STAR 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 recording weekly gains of 1.64%, 4.68%, 3.21%, 3.14%, and 3.77% respectively, with the ChiNext 300 showing the most notable recovery [1] Weekly Market Review - The performance of humanoid robot stocks has been mixed this week, with the top five gainers being Lixing Co., Changying Precision, Chaojie Co., Ruineng Technology, and GAC Group, while the top five losers include Huada Technology, Runhe Software, Jiangte Electric, Tonghui Electronics, and Lihexing [1] Recent Hotspots and Event Review - Invech's AI temperature control solution has helped data centers achieve over 22% energy savings, addressing high energy consumption issues in the manufacturing industry's digital transformation [2] - The energy consumption of data center air conditioning systems exceeds 30%, and Invech's solution optimizes cooling system control strategies without altering building structures, ensuring seamless installation and maintenance [2] Current Perspectives - Humanoid robots are considered an important downstream application of AI technology, with domestic industrial manufacturing levels leading globally. Companies like Hengshuai Co., Anpeilong, and Lens Technology are expected to benefit from the maturation of products from manufacturers like Tesla and Zhiyuan [3] - The application of diamond heat dissipation is gaining recognition among downstream customers, as the semiconductor industry progresses towards 2nm, 1nm, and even atomic-level developments. Companies such as Guoji Precision, World, and Sifangda are positioned for growth in this area [3] - The 2025 Intel Technology Innovation and Industry Ecosystem Conference has opened in Chongqing, where the first dual-plate liquid cooling server was launched, indicating a potential increase in demand for liquid cooling equipment driven by AI data center construction. Relevant companies include Invech, Bojie Co., and Fengmao Co. [3] - The development of Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) technology by Google is accelerating the progress of the industry chain, with companies like Chip Motion and Tengjing Technology being key players [3]

2025 年 12 月 01 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 203 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 理财整改倒计时，对债市影响几何？--固定收益点评 装载机+挖掘机比翼双飞，电动化+全球化勇立潮头--柳工/工程机械(000528/216406) 公司深度研究 近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题--策略周报 智元正式推出灵心平台，优必选连续中标人形机器人数据采集相关项目大单--行业周报 储能需求有望持续超预期，继续看好锂电材料价格修复--行业周报 专精风电齿轮箱，融资扩产续华章--德力佳/风电设备(603092/216306) 公司深度研究 如何看待科创公司债的估值回调？--债券研究周报 辛醇、锦纶切片价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 年底债市机构行为格局之变--债券研究周报 六氟磷酸锂价格持续上涨，北京规划建设太空数据中心--行业周报 铝行业周报：库存去化，铝价高位震荡--行业 PPT 报告 电厂日耗继续上行，12 月煤价仍有上涨动能--行业周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a volatile trend in November, with the index fluctuating between 25,178.63 and 27,188.81 points, failing to break the 27,000-point mark or drop below 25,000 points [1][2] - The market was initially buoyed by the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing tensions between China and the U.S., but later faced declines due to concerns over potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait [1][2] Sector Performance - Bank stocks performed well, with several state-owned banks reaching historical highs, while innovative drug companies like BeiGene (06160) also saw significant gains [2] - Solid-state battery stocks showed strong performance, driven by trends in energy storage and price increases, with notable gains from companies like Longpan Technology (603906) and Weichai Power (000338) [2] Economic Indicators and Expectations - The Federal Reserve's December meeting is a key focus, with market expectations for a rate cut rising significantly, from about 30% to 80% following dovish comments from Fed officials [3] - Upcoming economic work meetings in December are expected to provide guidance on fiscal and monetary policies, with potential increases in deficit rates and special bond quotas [4] Currency and International Factors - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, indicating strong domestic factors driving this trend, alongside positive sentiment from foreign investors towards Chinese assets [5] - The market is closely monitoring Japan's potential interest rate hike, which could lead to capital inflows into undervalued Hong Kong stocks [5] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for December emphasizes following market expectations, particularly regarding policy changes and major events [7][8] - Key sectors to watch include technology, consumer goods, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from upcoming trends and events [8] Company Highlights - **Rongchang Bio (09995)**: Reported a revenue of 1.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a gross margin of 84.27% [11] - **Leap Motor (09863)**: Achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan [14] - **TCL Electronics (01070)**: Reported a 8.7% increase in TV sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rise in MiniLED TV sales [16][17] - **MGM China (02282)**: Announced a net income of 8.51 billion HKD in Q3 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by strong high-end demand [28][29] - **China Gold International (02099)**: Achieved a revenue of 925 million USD in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, with a significant increase in gold and copper production [30][31]

建"机"行事：机械周观点 20251130 该行业在未来 3 至 5 年内将持续保持较高增速。 达意隆公司的发展情况如何？ 达意隆公司作为液态产品智能工厂整线设备供应商，主要提供 PET 瓶吹瓶机、 灌装封口设备等整线解决方案。目前其订单非常饱满，并且产能持续扩张，以 应对需求增长。达意隆前三季度合同负债同比增长 46%，主要来自海外订单需 求。今年（2025 年）达意隆国内与海外收入结构从年初的 55%比 45%转变为 全年五五开，预计明年（2026 年）海外收入占比将提升至 60%。 达意隆在性 价比和服务方面具有优势，其设备价格较国外品牌低两到三成，同时服务速度 更快。在新兴市场中，其出口结构以南亚、东南亚为主，占整体海外营收的一 半左右。此外，公司还接到了印度某大型饮料集团的大额订单，这些订单将在 2 至 3 年内交付完毕，并可能带来更多后续订单。 达意隆今年（2025 年）的 产值大约为 17 亿元，自建产能每月可达到 2 亿元以上规模。预计 2026 年至 2027 年的扩产计划每年将释放约 5 亿元产值，到 2027 年底长期满产时自建 产能将达到 27 亿元。同时，公司还租赁外部厂房以增加生产 ...

来源：环球时报 【环球时报报道 记者 陈子帅】编者的话：当下，全球主要经济体正大力布局新能源汽车、人形机器人 等新兴产业和未来产业，相关人才的培养也成为不可忽视的课题。人工智能（AI）等前沿产业的发 展，不仅依赖高科技人才在研发端的突破，更离不开大量技术技能人才在落地应用环节的支撑。近日， 中国工信部在重庆举办了第三届全国工业和信息化技术技能大赛，将智能网联汽车、机器人等领域的真 实工业场景搬到了赛场上，来自全国近千名职业技术院校的师生展示了他们对这些前沿产业技术的掌握 能力。《环球时报》记者在现场采访发现，在上述关键产业中，中国已经培养和储备了一批技术技能人 才，他们将成为中国高端产业落地的重要支撑。 "新型工程人才"要掌握跨学科知识 90分钟，让人形机器人搬箱子 3名学生组成一队，当场编写程序和调试机器人，短短1.5小时，人形机器人就能完成自主避障行走、搬 箱子，乃至从一堆杂物中挑选指定零件等考核内容。《环球时报》记者在全国技术技能大赛现场目睹了 这一生动场景。 近年来随着人形机器人产业迅速发展，越来越多的技术院校开始培养该领域的技能人才。记者了解到许 多参赛选手在今年甚至最近几个月才刚接触人形机器人，但 ...

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see accelerated commercialization due to advancements in AI technology and strong domestic demand for core components [1][13] - The electric vehicle battery industry is experiencing a rebound in profitability driven by a reduction in oversupply and increasing global demand for energy storage [2][16] - North America's energy storage market is witnessing rapid growth, with companies like Fluence reporting record orders and revenue, indicating a high level of market activity [3][27] - The gas turbine market is thriving due to overseas demand, with leading domestic companies poised to benefit from this trend [8] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction with a recent order of 143 million yuan for a data collection project, indicating strong market potential [1][13] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are critical for commercialization, with domestic manufacturers expected to benefit significantly [1][15] Electric Vehicles - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting a "de-involution" strategy in the battery industry to combat irrational competition and improve profitability [2][16] - Global energy storage demand is projected to reach 500 GWh by 2025, with lithium iron phosphate battery shipments expected to hit 1,300 GWh [2][22] Renewable Energy - Fluence's FY2025 results show a strong order backlog, with North American energy storage demand driven by renewable energy integration and data center needs [3][28] - The European offshore wind market is also expanding, with significant projects underway, indicating a robust growth outlook for companies involved in this sector [3][29] Power Equipment & AIDC - The gas turbine market is experiencing high demand, with leading companies like Harbin Electric and Shanghai Electric expected to benefit from increased overseas orders [8][30] - The transition to a DAP export model has improved profit margins for companies involved in the construction and transportation of offshore wind projects [7][30]

报告导读： 上周（ 2025/11/24-2025/11/28 ）机械设备指数涨跌幅为 +3.91% 。中 国启动聚变领域国际科学计划，核聚变进度加速；低空系统建设规模化加速。 中国启动"聚变领域"国际科学计划，预计2027年装置建成。 2025年11月24日，中国科学院"燃烧等离子体"国际科学计划项目正式启动，面向全球开放包括 紧凑型聚变能实验装置BEST在内的多个领先的聚变能实验装置及平台，协同攻关科学难题，携手点亮人类清洁能源的未来。根据研究计划，2027年底该装置 建成后，将进行氘氚燃烧等离子体实验研究，验证其长脉冲稳态运行能力，力求聚变功率达到20兆瓦至200兆瓦，实现产出能量大于消耗能量，演示聚变能发 电。核聚变进展加速，建议关注产业链发展。 中央空管办加强规范低空管理系统建设，1.5万亿市场向"规模化落地"跨越。 2025年11月24日，中央空管办日前制定出台《国家级和省、市级低空飞行综合 监管服务平台功能要求（1.0版）》，对低空管理系统建设加强规范。据中国民航局预测，2025 年低空经济市场规模将达 1.5 万亿元， 2035 年有望飙升至 3.5 万亿元。本次低空管理系统《要求》发布，重构 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the A-share market indices have shown significant recovery, with the CSI 300, ChiNext 300, STAR 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increasing by 1.64%, 4.68%, 3.21%, 3.14%, and 3.77% respectively, with the ChiNext 300 showing the most notable rebound [10][11] - The humanoid robot sector is identified as a crucial downstream application of AI technology, with domestic industrial manufacturing leading globally. The report anticipates that as products from companies like Tesla and Zhiyuan mature, the industry chain will accelerate [3][22] - The application of diamond heat dissipation is gaining recognition among downstream customers, particularly as the semiconductor industry progresses towards 2nm and 1nm technologies. The report emphasizes the importance of timely heat dissipation to maintain chip performance and reliability [3][22] - The 2025 Intel Technology Innovation and Industry Ecosystem Conference in Chongqing introduced the first dual-path cold plate liquid cooling server, indicating a growing demand for liquid cooling equipment driven by AI data center construction [3][22] - Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) technology is advancing rapidly, particularly with Google's development of next-generation technologies, which is expected to accelerate the industry chain [3][22] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The humanoid robot sector has shown a mixed performance, with the top five gaining stocks being Lixing Co., Changying Precision, Chaojie Co., Ruineng Technology, and GAC Group, while the top five losing stocks include Huada Technology, Runhe Software, Jiangte Electric, Tonghui Electronics, and Lihexing [19][20] Recent Hotspots and Events - Invech's AI temperature control solution has achieved over 22% energy savings for data centers, addressing high energy consumption issues in the manufacturing industry's digital transformation [2][25] Key Emerging Industry Company Tracking - Zhongchuang Zhiling has announced a bank loan guarantee to support its subsidiary, while Guojijiang has highlighted the potential of diamond heat dissipation applications in the semiconductor field, with expected revenues exceeding 10 million yuan by 2025 [22][23] - Anpeilong is expanding its R&D team for force sensor products, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the robotics sector [23][24]

Group 1 - The upcoming central economic work conference in mid-December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, which may lead to a cautious optimism in the market [1][2][3] - December to January is identified as a favorable period for "spring market" positioning, particularly for sectors with positive earnings forecasts and less likelihood of negative surprises [1][3] - The adjustment in various sectors has reached an average of approximately 20% since September and October, making them candidates for observation in December [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut in December is likely to support sectors such as technology growth, consumer leaders, and non-ferrous metals [1][2][3] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to enhance the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially accelerating foreign capital allocation to the A-share market [2][5] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of frequent style switching, with a focus on structural trends rather than a broad market rally [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the market may see a significant recovery in risk appetite if unexpected positive policy announcements emerge from the upcoming meetings [1][2][3] - The focus on sectors such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer-driven industries is emphasized as potential beneficiaries of policy catalysts [4][5] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market has typically experienced a rally during the year-end and early January period, driven by seasonal effects and policy expectations [3][4]