1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the annual economic growth rate reached the target of 5%. Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased, while investment's contribution declined. Looking ahead to 2026, the real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. [2][7] - The bond market's pricing of the fundamentals may still exhibit an asymmetry of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news." The view of a weak and volatile long - term bond market in the near term is maintained, and the recovery window may come later in the first quarter. [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Economic Data Overview - The Q4 real GDP in 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations, and the annual cumulative year - on - year growth rate successfully achieved the target of 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size rose by 0.4 pct to 5.2%, higher than the expected 4.9%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped by 0.4 pct to 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.5%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped by 1.2 pct to - 3.8%, worse than the expected - 2.4%. [4] 3.2 Economic Growth Drivers - Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased to 2.6% and 1.64% respectively, while investment's contribution declined to 0.77%. There was still price pressure. The Q4 real GDP growth rate was 4.5% year - on - year, down 0.3 pct from Q3, and it declined quarter by quarter throughout the year, reaching the lowest level since 2023. The price level improved quarter by quarter, with the GDP deflator's year - on - year growth rate dropping to around - 0.67%, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.8% year - on - year, showing marginal improvement but remaining at a low level. [7] 3.3 Industrial Sector - In December, the industrial added value was 5.2% year - on - year, 0.4 pct higher than the previous value, and 0.49% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned positive to 3.2%. The service industry production index was 5% year - on - year, 0.8 pct faster than the previous month. By sector, the mining industry was a major drag, with its year - on - year growth rate dropping by 0.9 pct to 5.4%, while the manufacturing industry's year - on - year growth rate increased by 1.1 pct to 5.7%. High - end manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, with the year - on - year growth rates of pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing accelerating by 4.6, 3.4, and 2.6 pct respectively. The output of high - tech products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits maintained a high month - on - month growth rate. In 2025, the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.4% compared to the previous year, contributing 26.1% to the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. [7] 3.4 Investment Sector - The decline in fixed asset investment widened. Real estate investment continued to decline due to the drag of housing prices, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment weakened overall against the backdrop of enterprises' concentrated debt repayment, debt reduction, and "anti - involution." In December, the month - on - month growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped to - 15.0%, and the month - on - month decline of private investment was about - 17.2%. Real estate investment's month - on - month decline widened to - 37.5%, the sales area decreased by 16.6% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 24.2% year - on - year. The prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The insufficient funds of real estate enterprises still restricted construction starts and completions, but the new construction area stabilized, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed. Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with the month - on - month growth rate of broad - based infrastructure investment at - 15.9%, and the "crowding - out effect" of debt reduction may still have had an impact. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, but in December, the month - on - month growth rate was - 10.5%, indicating that enterprises were cautious about investment against the "anti - involution" background. The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry increased from 74.1% in Q1 to 75.2% in Q4. [7] 3.5 Consumption Sector - The growth rate of social retail sales declined, and residents' income and expenditure continued to slow down. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 0.9%, the lowest since March 2023. The off - season effect was evident, with commodity retail (0.7%) and catering (2.2%) remaining at low levels, and the year - on - year growth rate of catering above designated size at - 1.1%. The effect of the "trade - in" subsidy may have weakened, and consumption of household appliances (- 18.7%), furniture (- 2.2%), and automobiles (- 5.0%) remained under pressure. However, the retail sales of communication equipment (20.9%) maintained a high growth rate. In Q4, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income dropped by 0.2 pct to 5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure dropped by 0.3 pct to 4.4%. [7] 3.6 Outlook for 2026 - The real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8% in 2026, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. On the investment side, the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year proposed to "stabilize and reverse the decline of investment." This year, the investment growth rate is expected to stop falling and stabilize with the support of the concept of "investing in people" and "two important" projects. On the production and demand side, the transformation of old and new driving forces is accelerating, and service consumption, high - end manufacturing, and exports may maintain their resilience. [2][7]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： ↑ 点击上方 " 蓝色柳林财税室 " 关注我们 3.甲请退祝前36个月未因偂祝筱祝务机天 处罚两次及以上。 4.2019年4月1日起未享受增值税即征即退、 先征后返（退）政策，7号公告另有规定的除外。 适用库体 制造业等4个行业纳税人 1、适用范围 科学研究和技术服务业 软件和信息技术服务业 生态保护和环境治理业 从事《国民经济行业分类》中的以上4个行 业业务相应发生的增值税销售额占其全部增值 税销售额的比重超过50%的纳税人。销售额比 重根据纳税人申请退税前连续12个月的销售额 计算确定；申请退税前经营期不满12个月但满 3个月的，按照实际经营期的销售额计算确定。 2、政策要点 按月向主管税务机关申请退还期末留抵税 额。 3、计算公式 允许退还的 进项构成 当期期末留 × × 100% 留抵税额 抚税额 比例 进项构成比例，为2019年4月至申请退税 前一税款所属期已抵扣的增值税专用发票、海 关进口增值税专用缴款书、完税凭证、机动车 销售统一发票、收费公路通行费增值税电子普 通发票、电子发票（航空运输电子客票行程单）、 电子发票（铁路电子客票）等增值税扣税凭证 (以下简称七类增值税 ...

事件点评 2026 年 01 月 20 日 规上工增超预期增长，全年经济目标顺利实现 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 12 月经济数据关注点 政策端加码发力后内生动力触底回升，工业增加值同比超预期增长。12 月工业 增加值同比增长 5.2%，较前值提升 0.4pct，Wind 统计的 15 家机构预测中位数为 +5.00%，平均数为+5.0；环比增长 0.49%，较前值增加 0.05pct。规上工增同比超 预期增长，表现与 12 月 PMI 数据一致，政策端加码发力后 12 月生产指数环比 提升 1.7pct，新订单指数环比提升 1.6pct，均反映制造业企业生产活动加快，同 时叠加节前补库与出口订单有所恢复，推动工业增加值超预期增长。 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 12 月经济数据，规上工增当月同比增长 5.2%（前 值为+4.8%，下同），环比增长 0.49%（+0.44%）；社零 ...

北京商报讯（记者 程靓）1月20日，财政部金融司司长于红在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上表 示，支持推进重点产业的提质升级，加强财政金融协同来支持科技创新。对相关科技创新类的贷款给予 财政贴息，央行同时提供再贷款的支持，持续推动制造业新型技术改造与中小企业数字化的转型，加快 智能化、绿色化、融合化发展，巩固壮大实体经济的根基。 ...

冬浅风清 不负流年 "2026年，中国经济仍处于修复式增长的过程中，内需扩张、政策持续宽松以及物价回升将共同支撑经 济增长。" "从经济增长和产业发展的角度来看，AI与新质生产力成为未来经济发展的关键引擎。" "我们预计2026年A股市场风格可能更趋于均衡，市场催化因素或逐步从'流动性'转向'价格盈利'。" 2026年，中国经济迈入"十五五"开局之年。"十五五"规划建议为未来五年中国经济发展擘画蓝图，在这 一图景之下，2026年的中国经济将会呈现哪些变化，其增长动能主要来自哪里？在此背景下，随着内外 因素变化，大类资产配置的主线将指向何方，投资者该如何布局自己的资产配置图谱？围绕这些问题， 《金融博览·财富》杂志专访了西部证券首席宏观分析师边泉水。 边泉水：是的，我们2026年宏观年度报告叫作《革故鼎新：修复式增长下的再平衡与新动力》。"革故 鼎新"的字面意思指变化，我们借此想强调2026年宏观经济增长、行业发展和政策层面上的一些新变 化。 这些变化，主要表现在如下四个方面。 第一，名义经济增长明显改善。从宏观基本面判断，由于通胀回升，名义GDP增速将明显加快，将对居 民部门、企业部门和政府部门的收入提升带来 ...

如今，温州跻身万亿GDP城市，正全面推进创新温州建设，着重强调人工智能创新发展。2026年1月3日，温州市委经济工作会议暨创新温州建 设推进大会召开，强调温州要在顺应趋势中抢占高地、牢牢抓住创新温州建设这个发展"牛鼻子"，在应对变局中发挥优势、全面打开经济发展 空间，抢占"十五五"发展先机。会议还提出，在人工智能创新发展、企业创新能力提升、大孵化器集群提质增效等八大领域实现"更大突破"， 其中，人工智能创新发展被置于首位。 在官宣2025年GDP破万亿后，温州成为我国第28座万亿之城，浙江第3座万亿之城。此外，作为民营经济之城，温州正加快打造具有全国辨识 度的"AI示范应用第一城"。 1月20日，温州市十四届人大六次会议召开，温州市市长张文杰在作政府工作报告时表示，2025年温州地区生产总值突破万亿元。 日前，《中共温州市委关于制定温州市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）提出，今后五年经济社会发展的 主要目标是，温州都市圈能级大幅跃升，全省高质量发展"第三极"提速打造，东南沿海重要的区域中心城市地位全面确立。 "十四五"前四年，温州GDP年均增长6.5%，总量排名从全国第30位跃升 ...

新华财经北京1月20日电（记者孙晶）站在2026年的起点，展望全球人工智能（AI）发展，技术、产 业、能源、治理多重变量交织，将共同塑造这一关键年份。 相关机构预测，越来越多的顶尖AI企业将聚焦提升大模型推理能力与智能体执行任务能力，推动AI 从"会生成"向"会规划、会行动"进化。大量企业应用将嵌入任务型AI智能体。 与技术突破相伴的则是能源压力，全球数据中心耗电量将持续高企。治理层面，预计各国治理措施将加 速落地。 技术：大模型竞赛带动智能体应用 2026年，人工智能大模型你追我赶的竞争趋势将延续。开放人工智能研究中心（OpenAI）、谷歌、深 度求索等企业将发布规模更大或效率更高的最新版本大模型。 著名人工智能研究者、美国斯坦福大学教授李飞飞日前撰文指出，空间智能是人工智能下一个前沿。大 模型在成功处理文本数据、多模态数据的基础上，正在空间理解力方面取得进步，其目标是具备语义、 物理、几何、动态复杂交互等方面能力的模型。 同时，智能体可能日益普及，人工智能与人们的生活结合得将更为紧密。传统AI系统工作模式是一问 一答，而具备深度目标导向、更多步骤规划能力以及擅长特定任务的智能体将越来越多地应用于各种工 作 ...

2026年01月20日 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com -12 月经济数据点评 2025 年全年完成 GDP 同比增速 5%的目标，但国内经济整体仍呈现生产强、需求弱修 复的特征。2025年全年，我国 GDP 同比增速达到 5%，符合市场预期，但是我国经济仍 然面临实体需求不足、外部环境扰动较大的现实约束。具体表现为过去由地产驱动的固定 资产投资增速明显回落，财富缩水效应下，居民消费改善不明显、物价维持低位运行、居 ■GDP：现价同比-不变价同比，% ——GDP同比，% 15 10 5 0 -5 2000 - 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 图 3: 2025 年 12 月工业增加值累计同比增速 5.9%, 相比上月下降 0.1pcts 工业增加值累计同比（21年数据为两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced several significant policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including the extension of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy until the end of 2026 [1][10]. Personal Consumption Loan Subsidy Policy - The implementation period for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to December 31, 2026, with the new period set from September 1, 2025, to December 31, 2026 [2][12]. - The policy now includes credit card installment payments with an annual subsidy rate of 1% [3][12]. - The previous limits on subsidy amounts have been removed, allowing for greater flexibility in consumer spending [3][13]. Equipment Update Loan Subsidy Policy - The subsidy for fixed asset loans related to equipment updates is set at 1.5% for a maximum period of 2 years [4][14]. - The policy supports a wider range of industries, including construction, aviation, and digital technology, and is effective until December 31, 2026 [5][14]. Small and Micro Enterprises Loan Subsidy Policy - A subsidy of 1.5% is available for fixed asset loans to small and micro private enterprises, with a maximum loan size of 50 million yuan [6][17]. - The policy targets key industries such as new energy vehicles, medical equipment, and artificial intelligence, and is set to last for one year with potential extensions [6][17]. Service Industry Loan Subsidy Policy - The service industry loan subsidy policy has been extended to December 31, 2026, with increased subsidy limits for new loans [7][18]. - The policy now includes additional sectors such as digital and green industries, expanding the scope of support [7][18]. Private Investment Special Guarantee Plan - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been established with a total quota of 500 billion yuan over two years [8][19]. - The plan supports loans for equipment purchases, technological upgrades, and various service sectors, with banks bearing at least 20% of the loan risk [8][19]. Financial Support and Innovation - The central government will provide funding to reduce re-guarantee fees and encourage innovative financing models [9][21]. - A total of 50 billion yuan will be injected into the guarantee fund to enhance support for private enterprises and promote balanced regional development [9][21].

本报记者 韩昱 1月20日，财政部联合相关部门连发5份通知，分别是《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关 于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的通知》《关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的 通知》《关于实施民间投资专项担保计划的通知》《关于优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策的通 知》。 来源：财政部网站 《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》提出，对2026年1月1日起经办银行发放的、符合条件的中 小微民营企业固定资产贷款和中小微民营企业参与项目使用的新型政策性金融工具资金，中央财政按照 贷款本金给予年化1.5个百分点、期限不超过2年的贴息支持，单户贴息贷款规模上限5000万元。政策实 施期限暂定1年，后续可视情延长。同一笔贷款不得重复享受中央财政其他贴息政策。 扩展支持领域。在支持工业、能源电力、交通运输、物流、文旅、老旧农机具等领域设备更新基础上， 增加建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、渔船、冷链设施、粮油加 工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域，加大对高端化、智能化、绿色 化、数字化设备更新支持。 《关于实施民间投资专项担保计划的通知 ...