Core Viewpoint - As of January 16, a total of 4 ST stocks have announced their annual performance forecasts, with 2 companies expecting to reduce losses and 2 companies forecasting losses [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Company *ST Hua Wang (603007)* expects a reduction in losses, with a projected net profit range of -18 million to -24 million yuan, and a year-to-date price change of +3.48% [1] - Company *ST Zhang Gu (000430)* also anticipates a reduction in losses, with a projected net profit range of -45 million to -55 million yuan, and a year-to-date price change of -3.61% [1] Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Company *ST Yan Shi (600696)* is forecasting a loss, with no specific net profit figures provided, and a year-to-date price change of -5.17% [1] - Company *ST Wan Fang (000638)* is also forecasting a loss, with no specific net profit figures provided, and a year-to-date price change of -7.26% [1]

来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 央行发布重磅政策。宏观方面，央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴 现利率0.25个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，总 额度中单设1万亿元民营企业再贷款，重点支持中小民营企业；科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增加 4000亿元并扩大支持范围；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。海外方面，美国上周初请失业金人数下降9000人至19.8 万人，显著低于市场预期21.5万人，为去年11月以来最低水平。四周移动平均值降至20.5万，创两年新 低。 指数走势分化。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数跌0.33%收于4112.60点，创业板指涨 0.56%。行业方面，板块指数涨跌互现，电子、基础化工、有色金属行业领涨，国防军工、传媒、计算 机行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额回落至2.9万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨 0.6%报49442.44点。 基差收敛。期货市场，基差方面，当月合约今日交割，基差基本收敛。成交持仓方 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in the A-share market's margin trading and securities lending activities, with new account openings and financing balances reaching record levels [1][3][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the number of new margin trading accounts reached 1.542 million, a 52.9% increase from 1.0085 million in 2024, with total accounts exceeding 15.64 million by year-end [1][4] - By January 14, 2026, the A-share financing balance reached 2.68 trillion yuan, increasing by approximately 156.5 billion yuan within the first eight trading days of the year, setting a new historical record [3] - The financing balance rose from 1.85 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 2.52 trillion yuan by the end of the year, marking an annual growth rate of over 36% [3] - The hard technology and high-end manufacturing sectors have become the primary focus for leveraged funds, with the electronics industry leading in net financing purchases at 31.78 billion yuan [3] - Key companies in the AI and new energy sectors have attracted significant financing, with Zhongji Xuchuang receiving a net purchase of 16.186 billion yuan, and other leading firms like Ningde Times and New Yisheng also exceeding 16 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks exhibit higher volatility and activity compared to large-cap stocks, making them more likely to become market leaders [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 15, there are 862 stocks with a circulating market value below 3 billion yuan, and 321 of these have a circulating market value below 2 billion yuan [1] - A total of 1,513 stocks have a total market value below 5 billion yuan, with 485 stocks having a total market value below 3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Small-cap Stocks Analysis - The three stocks with the smallest circulating market values are *ST长药 at 238 million yuan, *ST奥维 at 305 million yuan, and *ST立方 at 531 million yuan [1] - The three stocks with the smallest total market values are *ST长药 at 238 million yuan, *ST奥维 at 343 million yuan, and *ST立方 at 533 million yuan [1] Group 3: Selected Small-cap Stocks - Notable small-cap stocks include: - *ST长药: Circulating market value of 238 million yuan, total market value of 238 million yuan, and no P/E ratio [1] - *ST奥维: Circulating market value of 305 million yuan, total market value of 343 million yuan, and no P/E ratio [1] - *ST立方: Circulating market value of 531 million yuan, total market value of 533 million yuan, and no P/E ratio [1] - 扬州金泉: Circulating market value of 694 million yuan, total market value of 2.778 billion yuan, P/E ratio of 24.23 [1] - 万得凯: Circulating market value of 753 million yuan, total market value of 2.964 billion yuan, P/E ratio of 26.59 [1] - 播恩集团: Circulating market value of 758 million yuan, total market value of 2.187 billion yuan, and no P/E ratio [1]

截至1月14日，A股融资余额高达2.68万亿元，短短8个交易日融资余额大增，再创历史新高。其中，6个 交易日融资余额单日增长超百亿元。 从净买入行业来看，近一年来，硬科技与高端制造业成为杠杆资金核心配置方向。融资净买入前十的行 业中，电子行业以317.80亿元的融资净买入额和3973.91亿元的融资余额位居首位，成为两融资金最青睐 的领域；国防军工、计算机分别以234.15亿元、192.65亿元的融资净买入额位居二、三名，融资余额分 别为1082.22亿元、1957.97亿元。此外，电力设备、有色金属、机械设备、通信等行业融资净买入额均 超过110亿元；传媒、非银金融、汽车等行业跻身前十。 深圳商报记者 钟国斌 截至2025年末，A股两融账户总数已突破1564万户，共有96家券商、1.16万家营业部参与两融业务。 2026年以来，A股融资余额持续攀升。截至1月14日，A股融资余额高达2.68万亿元，短短8个交易日融 资余额增长1564.71亿元，再创历史新高。其中，6个交易日融资余额单日增长超百亿元。 两融余额在创历史新高之际，2025年两融新开户数据出炉。据中证数据有限责任公司披露，2025年融资 融券新开 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index maintained above 4100 points, closing at 4112.60, down 0.33% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.56% to 3367.92 [2][4] - The market showed mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating throughout the day, indicating a volatile trading environment [4][6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (up 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (up 1.40%), and Nonferrous Metals (up 1.37%) [3] - Conversely, sectors such as Defense and Military Industry (down 2.80%) and Media (down 2.70%) faced declines [3] - Notable concept stocks included the Lithography Glue and SMIC concepts, which saw increases of 2.83% and 2.59% respectively, while the Xiaohongshu concept dropped by 5.25% [3][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience continued structural slow growth, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and moderate inflation recovery [6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, aiming to enhance credit supply in key areas [5] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear industrial trends and resilient earnings, particularly in dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [6]

Group 1 - The report by Huabao Securities provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic environment and asset allocation for 2026, highlighting a mixed performance of major asset classes in December 2025, with A-shares recovering due to policy adjustments and valuation corrections, while Hong Kong stocks continued to weaken [1][13] - The overseas economic environment shows that the US economy is likely to achieve a "soft landing," with inflation declining, which may lead to 1-2 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while domestic economic pressures are rising, with GDP growth expected at 4.8% for the year [2][28] - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 suggests that A-shares may continue to rise but at a slower pace, with a focus on high-growth sectors like AI hardware and semiconductors, while US stocks are expected to maintain a positive trend supported by economic resilience and liquidity [5][11] Group 2 - In the fixed income category, domestic government bonds are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of 2026, with a potential decrease in yield as interest rate cuts become more likely in the second half [5][11] - The report anticipates a stable to rising trend for the RMB exchange rate in the first half of 2026, with increased volatility expected in the second half as the Federal Reserve halts interest rate cuts [5][11] - Gold prices are projected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with any pullbacks seen as good buying opportunities, while oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and seasonal demand [5][11]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a slight increase with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with a significant decrease in trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% day - on - day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% [1][7]. - Different style indices had varying performance, with mid - cap growth rising 0.98% and being relatively dominant [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 90.616 billion yuan, a 17.52% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2938.494 billion yuan, a 26.30% decrease [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 50.92 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.50bp to 1.85% [1][13]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.05% to 139.95 yuan, and the proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) rose by 0.19pct to 71.58% [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased by 0.47pct to 36.32%, and the overall weighted par value increased by 0.08% to 104.54 yuan [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.80%), Media (- 2.70%), and Computer (- 2.40%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (+ 1.40%), and Non - ferrous Metals (+ 1.37%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were Building Materials (- 3.47%), National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.97%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 2.85%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 2.55%), Commerce and Retail (+ 2.35%), and Automobile (+ 1.87%) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The United States is leading the formation of a rare earth alliance to weaken China's dominant position in the global rare earth supply, but it appears to overestimate its influence and appeal [1] Group 1: U.S. and Allies' Efforts - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is rallying G7, EU, Australia, India, and South Korea to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals, with some countries responding positively, such as Japan [1] - Japan's Finance Minister openly supports the U.S. initiative, indicating a consensus among many nations, while Germany's Finance Minister expresses a different view, stating that the initiative is not aimed at decoupling from China [1][3] - The urgency from the U.S. and Japan is evident, but they struggle to present feasible solutions for reducing reliance on China [1][3] Group 2: Diverging Interests Among Allies - The rare earth alliance faces significant divisions, as countries have differing economic interests and ties with China, making complete decoupling unrealistic [5] - Germany, as Europe's economic engine, has strong connections with China in key industries, leading to a cautious approach towards U.S. calls for decoupling [5] - Australia and South Korea also have deep resource supply ties with China, making their participation in the U.S.-led alliance more about diplomatic gestures than substantial commitments [7] Group 3: China's Competitive Advantage - China has developed a complete rare earth industry chain over decades, achieving scale, cost advantages, and mature technology that other countries cannot replicate in the short term [8] - China's stance is clear: it will use rare earths as a countermeasure if its legitimate rights are harmed, while welcoming cooperation as long as international rules are followed [8] - The reconstruction of the rare earth industry is a complex process requiring significant investment, time, and market adaptation, which the U.S. and its allies are currently not prepared to undertake [8]

资金面上，今日主力资金全天净流出628.64亿元，已连续8个交易日资金呈净流出状态。其中，创业板 主力资金净流出280.04亿元；科创板主力资金净流出43.18亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流出23.90亿 元。 1月15日，沪指下跌0.33%，深成指上涨0.41%，创业板指上涨0.56%，沪深300指数上涨0.20%。可交易 A股中，上涨的有2229只，占比40.85%，下跌的3121只。 分行业来看，申万所属的一级行业中，今日上涨的有11个，涨幅居前的行业为电子、基础化工，涨幅为 1.67%、1.40%。跌幅居前的行业为综合、国防军工，跌幅为3.35%、2.80%。 行业资金流向方面，今日有6个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日 上涨1.67%，全天净流入资金120.83亿元，其次是有色金属行业，日涨幅为1.37%，净流入资金为19.36 亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有25个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日下跌2.40%，全天净流出资 金185.56亿元，其次是传媒行业，今日跌幅为2.70%，净流出资金为106.42亿元，净流出资金较多的还 有国防军工、医药生物、非银 ...