Group 1 - The demand for phosphate rock is strong, driving an annual increase in demand of over 4 million tons. Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the phosphate chemical industry chain, with companies having both resource layout and performance elasticity [1] - A "dark horse" in the robot joint motor market has a significant expectation gap in its market positioning. It is poised to secure the leading position in domestic EPS motors and is expected to receive orders from top domestic and international robot manufacturers, with a PE ratio of 14.7 times being attractive [1]

Company Overview - Sichuan Development Longmang Co., Ltd. focuses on the "sulfur-phosphorus-titanium-iron-lithium-calcium" multi-resource circular economy industrial chain, enhancing its core competitiveness [2][3] - The company has established a 60,000 tons/year lithium iron phosphate facility, with a 100,000 tons/year phosphoric acid facility in trial production, and a 500,000 tons/year sulfuric acid facility completed [3] Lithium Resource Acquisition - The company acquired a 51% stake in Guotuo Mining, gaining access to the core asset of the Simanzuo lithium spodumene mine, with an estimated Li2O resource of 14,927 tons over a 3.65 km² area [4] - Ongoing exploration and development of lithium resources are planned to support future new energy material businesses [4] Product Pricing and Market Trends - Recent price trends for key products show a 73% increase in the average market price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate to 6,553 RMB/ton, and 3,842 RMB/ton for calcium hydrogen phosphate [5] - The company maintains a stable production and operational status, leveraging its integrated supply chain from phosphate mining to product manufacturing [5] Resource Injection from Shareholders - The controlling shareholder, Sichuan Development (Holding) Co., Ltd., possesses rich mineral resources, including phosphate, lithium, vanadium-titanium, iron, and lead-zinc [6][7] - Recent resource injections include the Tianrui Mining phosphate resources and the Simanzuo lithium mine, enhancing the company's resource base [6][7] Export Performance - The company reported a 112.91% year-on-year increase in foreign revenue, totaling 520 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [8] Acquisition and Production Capacity - The acquisition of Tianbao Company enhances the company's competitive edge in the calcium phosphate feed additive sector, with stable production capacities of 450,000 tons/year for feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate and 250,000 tons/year for dihydrogen calcium phosphate [8] - Total production of various phosphate chemical products reached 2.3723 million tons in 2024, a 16.89% increase year-on-year [8] Future Capital Expenditure - Planned capital expenditure includes an investment of 366 million RMB for a 100,000 tons/year lithium dihydrogen phosphate project in Mianzhu City, Sichuan Province [9] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the phosphate chemical sector while expanding into upstream mineral resources and downstream new energy materials [9]

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].

Group 1: Phosphate Rock Market Overview - Phosphate rock prices have remained stable at high levels, with 30% grade priced at 1016 CNY/ton, 28% grade at 945 CNY/ton, and 25% grade at 758 CNY/ton as of December 9 [1] - The supply-demand relationship for phosphate rock has been tight, driven by insufficient supply elasticity and continuous demand growth, leading to a long-term tight balance in the market [1][2] - The demand for phosphate rock is primarily driven by traditional agricultural needs (over 60% of demand) and emerging demands from the new energy sector, particularly for lithium iron phosphate batteries and electronic-grade phosphoric acid [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The lithium iron phosphate industry has seen a significant recovery since Q3, with high capacity utilization among leading companies, although the current consumption of phosphate rock in the new energy sector is still below 5% [2] - Long-term projections indicate that the rigid demand for phosphate fertilizers and the incremental demand from lithium iron phosphate will jointly support phosphate rock prices, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist for the next 3 to 5 years [2] - Several listed companies are actively expanding their phosphate resource capabilities, focusing on capacity expansion and vertical integration within the industry [3] Group 3: Company Actions and Strategies - Shenzhen Batian Ecological Engineering Co., Ltd. announced the approval of its 2.9 million tons/year expansion project at the Xiaogaozai phosphate mine, which will enhance production capacity and optimize the upstream and downstream industry chain [3] - Guizhou Chuanheng Chemical Co., Ltd. is progressing with its 2.5 million tons/year project at the Jigongling phosphate mine, expected to produce ore by 2026, and is also developing the 1.8 million tons/year Laozhaizi phosphate mine [3] - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd. signed a processing agreement with Qinghai Fudi Industrial Co., Ltd. to produce 80,000 tons/year of lithium iron phosphate, highlighting the importance of the "mining integration" model for enhancing competitiveness and profitability in a high-price environment [4]

证券研究报告·行业研究 动储需求旺盛，看好磷化工产业链发展前景 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 大化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 电新证券分析师：岳斯瑶 执业证书编号：S0600522090009 石化化工证券分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 2025年12月9日 1 核心观点 2 目录 1. 磷化工产业链情况 2. 需求端：动力、储能拉动磷矿石&磷酸铁需求快速增长，磷肥需求走弱 3. 供给端：磷矿石计划新增产能较多，磷酸铁计划新增产能较少 4. 价格展望和供需平衡表测算 5. 投资建议 6. 风险提示 3 • 2.1 新兴需求：动储需求旺盛，其中储能对磷矿石需求量的拉动更强 • 2.2 传统需求：磷肥需求走弱，磷酸盐稳健运行 ◆ 需求端：1）磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石需求量11320万吨，我们预计2025、2026年磷矿石需求量11802、12414万吨，实 际新增需求量482、612万吨，其中新兴领域的需求增长，而传统领域的需求下降。①新兴需求：动力及储能电池驱动磷化工 产业链景气度向上， ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月9日，川恒股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在产矿山中，小坝磷矿正在 进行技改，原预计在2027年6月末达到预定可使用状态，根据目前的情况，较大可能会提前完成。新桥 磷矿山正常生产。目前在产矿山年产量在320余万吨。在建矿山中，鸡公岭磷矿250万吨/年项目建设正 常进行，预计2026年可产出工程矿，2027年末投产；老寨子磷矿180万吨/年项目已开工建设，预计2026 年下半年可产出工程矿，2027年末投产。 ...

A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指跌0.37%报3909点，深证成指跌0.39%，创业板指涨0.61%，北证50指数跌1.72%。全市场成交额1.92万亿元，较 前一交易日缩量1340亿元，超4000股下跌。 盘面上，海南板块走低，新大洲A跌停；医药商业板块下挫，瑞康医药、海王生物跌停；贵金属板块走弱，中金黄金领跌；磷化工板块震荡下行，罗平梓电 跌近6%；煤炭、钢铁、汽车拆解及锂矿概念等跌幅居前。另外，纳米银板块走高，英唐智控涨超11%；CPO概念反复活跃，德科立20CM涨停；商业百货板 块走高，永辉超市、中央商场等多股涨停；激光雷达、彩票概念及乳业等板块涨幅居前。(格隆汇) | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5C | | --- | --- | --- | | 3909.52 | 13277.36 | 1401.7 | | -14.56 -0.37% -52.63 -0.39% -24.51 -1 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1347.11 | 3209.60 | 6280.7 | | -3.69 -0.27% +19.33 +0.61% -34.77 -0 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The phosphate chemical index experienced a significant adjustment on December 9, with constituent stocks showing a widespread decline [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The phosphate chemical index showed a notable decline, indicating a bearish trend in the industry [1] - The overall performance of constituent stocks was poor, reflecting a challenging market environment [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Qing Shui Yuan saw a decrease of 5.33% [1] - Jin Cheng Xin experienced a drop of 3.89% [1] - Chuan Heng Co., Ltd. fell by 2.58% [1] - Hubei Yihua declined by 2.32% [1] - Xin An Co., Ltd. decreased by 2.20% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sulfur prices, which have increased by over 300% since mid-2024, is expected to raise the costs of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and other related materials, potentially impacting the overall cost structure of the lithium battery industry [2][3]. Group 1: Sulfur Price Dynamics - Domestic solid sulfur prices have risen from approximately 915 yuan/ton to around 4100 yuan/ton, with some forecasts predicting prices could reach 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - The price increase is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with rising contract prices in the Middle East and decreasing domestic port inventories, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and lithium batteries [3][4]. Group 2: Cost Implications for Phosphate Fertilizers - For phosphate fertilizers, a 100 yuan increase in sulfur prices leads to an approximate 50 yuan increase in production costs [6]. - Current estimates suggest that the cost of producing monoammonium phosphate has exceeded 4200 yuan/ton, while the selling price is around 3650 yuan/ton, indicating a loss of nearly 600 yuan per ton [6]. Group 3: Impact on Lithium Iron Phosphate Production - The production of one ton of lithium iron phosphate requires about 0.23 tons of sulfur, translating to a cost increase from approximately 210 yuan to 940 yuan per ton of LFP as sulfur prices rise [10]. - The overall cost structure of LFP shows that raw materials account for over 80% of total costs, with lithium sources and iron phosphate being significant components [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The increase in sulfur costs is seen as a pressure point for LFP producers, who are already facing thin margins due to prolonged price declines and industry losses [16][17]. - The market is currently witnessing a rebound in processing fees for LFP, but the fundamental issues of profitability remain unresolved [16]. - The industry must focus on managing costs and pricing strategies, particularly in light of potential further increases in sulfur prices and their implications for overall production costs [24].