Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the recovery of new booking services by COSCO Shipping Lines for Middle Eastern Gulf countries, which positively impacts the transportation ETF and related stocks [1] - On March 26, 2026, the transportation ETF Huaxia (159666) rose by 0.39%, with China Railway Materials hitting the daily limit, COSCO Shipping Special Containers increasing over 5%, and China Railway Special Cargo rising over 2% [1] - The resumption of services does not imply that COSCO's container ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz; instead, containers will be shipped to ports in Oman and then transported overland to the Gulf countries [1] Group 2 - The transportation ETF Huaxia (159666) and its linked funds (019405/019404) are the only ETFs tracking the CSI All-Share Transportation Index, covering logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports in the A-share market [1]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House said the negotiation was ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker claimed the Iran war was "nearly over" and the US military's troop deployment was a warning. Iranian military sources said they were ready for further escalation [2]. - Iran stated that non - belligerent ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumed new bookings for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries but ships would not pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - By the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a 15.9% year - on - year increase. Solar power and wind power installed capacities were 1.23 billion and 0.65 billion kilowatts respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.2% and 22.8% [2]. - The President of Indonesia approved tariffs on coal and nickel exports, and the specific tax rates are still under discussion. Indonesia accounts for over half of the world's nickel production [3]. - In the week ending March 25, national building materials production was 4.7336 million tons, an increase of 0.2835 million tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 0.5197 million tons, social inventory increased by 0.0532 million tons, total inventory decreased by 0.4665 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 0.3742 million tons [3]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.53%, precious metals 26.15%, oilseeds 8.85%, soft commodities 2.49%, non - ferrous metals 23.04%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.04%, energy 7.95%, chemicals 14.88%, grains 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.98% [4]. 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including sectors like agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30% daily, - 5.55% monthly, and - 0.93% year - to - date; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also had corresponding changes [6]. - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and year - to - date changes [6]. - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had their respective performance [6]. - Others: US dollar index and CBOE volatility had different changes [6]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as ratios like gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is expected to oscillate today due to the contradiction between its weak fundamentals and potential increase in fuel costs; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as it is far from now and there is a peak season in between. For other far - month contracts, the key lies in the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the complex transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line and high uncertainty, it is advised to avoid the high - volatility risk of far - month unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2604, the closing price was 1803.0, with a decline of 5.05%, a basis of - 109.7, a trading volume of 18169, an open interest of 12060, and an open interest change of - 3207 [2] - For EC2605, the closing price was 2086.0, with a decline of 4.23%, a basis of - 392.7, a trading volume of 1146, an open interest of 1414, and an open interest change of - 155 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price was 2364.1, with a decline of 3.08%, a basis of - 670.8, a trading volume of 12555, an open interest of 12845, and an open interest change of FF60 [2] - For EC2607, the closing price was 2475.2, with a decline of 3.58%, a basis of - 781.9, a trading volume of 421, an open interest of 891, and an open interest change of - 22 [2] - For EC2608, the closing price was 2354.2, with a decline of 2.35%, a basis of - 660.9, a trading volume of 1120, an open interest of 2720, and an open interest change of - 108 [2] - For EC2609, the closing price was 1658.1, with a decline of 3.60%, a basis of 35.2, a trading volume of 84, and an open interest of 498 [2] - For EC2610, the closing price was 1567.9, with a decline of 0.32%, a basis of 125.4, a trading volume of 2222, an open interest of 7330, and an open interest change of - 172 [2] - For EC2612, the closing price was 1716.7, with a decline of 3.23%, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 143, and an open interest of 503 [2] Month - spread Information - The EC2604 - 2606 month - spread was - 561.1, with a day - on - day change of - 20.8 and a week - on - week change of - 89.9 [2] - The EC2604 - 2605 month - spread was - 283, with a day - on - day change of - 3.7 and a week - on - week change of - 253.0 [2] - The EC2606 - 2610 month - spread was 796.2, with a day - on - day change of - 70.0 and a week - on - week change of - 28.4 [2] Spot Index Information - The TERNA spot index on 2026/3/23 was 1693.26 points, with a 8.79% increase from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/3/20 was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK opened flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders), and the average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points [4] - In the first half of April, YML and ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4] - Maersk reported 2650 dollars in Week 14 (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) and 2350 dollars in Week 15 (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] Related News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping resumed booking for Gulf countries, but ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now. Instead, they will transport containers to ports on the east side of the strait and then transfer them by land [5] - On March 25, Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire [5] - On March 25, US media reported that the White House was planning a negotiation with Iran over the weekend, and US Vice - President Vance might attend [5] - On March 26, White House Press Secretary Levitt reiterated that the time frame for Iran's actions was 4 to 6 weeks, and Iran was willing to have a dialogue while Trump was ready to participate [5]

2026 年 3 月 26 日 期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：宽幅震荡，关注地缘扰动 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | 合约 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,803.0 | -6.04% | 18,169 | 12,060 | -3,207 | 1.51 | 1.24 | | | EC2606 | 2,364.1 | -6.97% | 12,555 | 12,845 | -560 | 0.98 | 0.88 | | | EC2608 | 2,354.2 | -5.18% | 1,120 | 2,720 | -108 | 0.41 | 0.42 | | | EC2610 | 1,567 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts (especially the US - Iran conflict), supply and demand relationships, and policy changes. The market trends of different products are diverse, with some showing upward trends, some in a volatile state, and others facing downward pressure[5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The rebound momentum of ultra - oversold stocks weakened. The market continued to rise widely, but the trading volume did not increase, indicating limited incremental funds. Future stock index trends are still likely to fluctuate. Suggested strategies include grid operation for single - side trading, and IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF for arbitrage[19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There is still external uncertainty, and the bond market fluctuated in a narrow range. In the short term, there is a lack of substantial bullish drivers for the bond market to strengthen unilaterally, but there is also certain support. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and to hold a short position in the 30Y - 7Y term spread after partial profit - taking[23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure is large, and the market is under pressure. The overseas market has fluctuations, and the domestic fundamentals suggest caution due to the impact of macro and supply factors. It is recommended to place a small number of long positions in the far - month contracts and narrow the MRM09 spread[26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be strong, while domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and short at high prices for Zhengzhou sugar, and to go long on international sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage[28][30][31]. - **Edible Oils**: The market is in a high - level shock. The inventory situation is neutral to slightly high, and it is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see for short - term shocks and consider anti - arbitrage opportunities for p59[33][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has fallen, and the market is in a weak shock. The external market for corn is expected to be strong in the short term, and the domestic market is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long on the callback of the external 05 corn and hold a high - level shock view for the 05 corn, and to narrow the 07 corn - starch spread[36][37][38]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and the price has declined. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the near - month contracts and conduct LH79 anti - arbitrage[39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is strong, and the market is in a strong shock. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanuts at low prices and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option[42][43][44]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the price is stable. It is recommended to short the June contract[44][45][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see for the May contract[47][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is in a shock - upward trend. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices[50][53]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and short the coil - coal ratio for arbitrage[55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about short - term trading[57][58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices and conduct 5/9 month - spread anti - arbitrage[60][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil, the price is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options[62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US - Iran negotiation conditions are difficult to reconcile, and the market's optimistic sentiment has declined. It is recommended to consider a range - shock strategy if Shanghai gold and silver can stand above the 120 - day moving average[65][66][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The negotiation is at a stalemate, and the precious metals are in a sideways direction. It is recommended for high - risk - tolerance investors to go long on platinum cautiously and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage[71][72]. - **Copper**: Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The price is in a low - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see[75][76]. - **Alumina**: Pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The price is affected by supply and geopolitical factors and is in a shock - weakening trend[78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict, and the price is in a shock - weakening trend. It is recommended to wait and see[82][85]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict. The price is expected to rebound with aluminum prices. It is recommended to wait and see[87][88]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see[93]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see[95][96]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro. It is recommended to be bullish[97]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to be bullish[100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price reaches the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to short lightly[102][103]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak. It is recommended to take a bearish view[104]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The low price attracts downstream buyers. It is recommended to be bullish[105][106]. - **Tin**: The price is boosted by the cease - fire expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the negative impact on tin consumption from the helium blockade[108][112]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: COSCO resumes bookings to the Middle East, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. The US - Iran negotiation is still in a game. It is recommended to wait and see[113][115][116]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict still exists, and the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation. The freight market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand and geopolitical situation[116][119]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market has dull trading, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - upward trend in the medium - long term, while the Chinese carbon market is affected by factors such as quota pre - distribution and new - industry inclusion[120][123][125]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is unclear, and there is still a supply gap. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level[128][129]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction is a reality, and it is necessary to pay attention to the near - term oil price fluctuation risk. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract[130][131]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock - upward trend and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils[131][133]. - **LPG**: The decline in the external market drives the internal market to weaken. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock - upward trend[135]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options on TTF[138][139][141]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see[142][143][144]. - **BZ & EB**: The reduction in refinery load affects the supply of pure benzene, and the benzene import volume has decreased year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see[147][148]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised downward. It is recommended to wait and see[149][150]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see[152]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see[155]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see[157][159]. - **Plastic PP**: The apparent demand for domestic PP has decreased for two consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP contracts[160][161][162]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see[163][164]. - **PVC**: It is in a strong - shock trend. It is recommended to wait and see[166]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to short at high levels and sell call options[168][170]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - downward trend. It is recommended to short at high levels and sell call options[171][173]. - **Methanol**: It is mainly in a rebound trend. It is recommended to wait and see[175]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock trend. It is recommended to wait and see and sell put options on callbacks[179][180]. - **Pulp**: The inventory suppresses the price, and the rebound height is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices and sell the SP2605 - P - 5100 option[181][183][184]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the upward momentum is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option[186][187]. - **Logs**: The price shows mixed trends, with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is generally strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices[187][188][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The rainfall in Thailand continues to reduce production. It is recommended to hold long positions in the RU and NR contracts and conduct NR2605 - RU2605 arbitrage[191][192][193]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The apparent demand for butadiene rubber has decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR contract and conduct BR2505 - RU2505 arbitrage[195][197].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the E Fund Dividend ETF (515180), which opened at a decline of 0.14% on March 26, 2023, priced at 1.427 yuan [1][2] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Dividend Index return, managed by E Fund Management Co., Ltd., with fund managers Lin Weibin and Song Zhaoxian [2] - Since its establishment on November 26, 2019, the ETF has achieved a return of 85.20%, while its return over the past month has been -1.03% [2] Group 2 - The major stocks held by the E Fund Dividend ETF showed mixed performance, with China Merchants Industry Holdings rising by 0.86%, Guanghui Energy by 0.73%, while Zhonggu Logistics, Shanxi Coal International, Pingmei Shenma, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Ordos all experienced declines [1] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trend judgments on various futures based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of multiple industries such as macro finance, black, non - ferrous and new materials, agriculture, and energy chemicals, offering corresponding trading strategies [2][4]. - The geopolitical situation, especially the US - Iran conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply, demand, and price trends of various commodities [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Trend Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Trend空头 includes manganese silicon; Oscillatory and bearish includes eggs, ferrosilicon, polysilicon, red dates, plastics, PVC; Oscillatory includes lithium carbonate, cotton yarn, five - year Treasury bonds, ten - year Treasury bonds, two - year Treasury bonds, thirty - year Treasury bonds, cotton, sugar, pulp, logs, urea, iron ore, caustic soda, hot - rolled coil, rebar, copper, ethylene glycol, PTA, industrial silicon, bottle chips, p - xylene, short - fiber, live pigs, coke, methanol, coking coal, glass, soda ash, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, zinc; Oscillatory and bullish includes 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, fuel oil, asphalt [2]. - **Based on Quantitative Indicators**: Bearish includes coke, coking coal, corn starch, hot - rolled coil, rebar, PVC, soybean No.1; Oscillatory includes Zhengzhou cotton, Shanghai gold, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, Shanghai aluminum, soybean No.2, eggs, asphalt, PTA, plastics, sugar, polypropylene, glass, soybean meal, manganese silicon, methanol, rapeseed meal, palm oil, iron ore; Bullish includes rubber, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, corn, Shanghai silver, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc [4]. 2. Macro Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a long - position strategy and pay attention to trading volume. The current position has a certain odds, and short - term winning probability may increase [11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market gradually has odds, and consider a left - side long - position strategy. The yield of bonds over 10 years has odds, but the odds are not thick enough. Keep a steep yield curve thinking, and the yield of bonds under 10 years still has room to decline [12]. 3. Black - **Steel**: The overall short - term trend is oscillatory. The demand for building materials is weak, and the inventory of coils and strips is high, suppressing steel prices. The cost side has strong support, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a double - strong pattern. Suggest holding the short - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and then shorting on rallies later [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The prices are affected by the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the procurement willingness of coking enterprises has recovered. If the emotional premium fades, the price may fall back [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The supply of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is weakening. Although the prices are affected by energy emotions, the fundamental contradictions are accumulating [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply has slightly declined due to short - term maintenance, and the supply stability of leading enterprises needs attention. Glass supply has both cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [19]. 4. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: The short - term price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing but remains uncertain. The downstream consumption is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. It is still advisable to adopt an oscillatory and bearish strategy with small price rebounds [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is affected by mine - end disturbances and macro - emotions. If the export of lithium ore from Zimbabwe is still prohibited, it may drive up the price; otherwise, it may cause a short - term supply shock [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon oscillates, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after a rebound. Polysilicon oscillates weakly, and the liquidity is insufficient, so operate with caution [25][26]. 5. Agriculture - **Cotton**: The price oscillates at a high level. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage. The import pressure restricts the price, but the decrease in the expected planting area is beneficial to the price in the long term [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates and rebounds. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, but the import cost supports the price [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The recent consumption recovery supports the price, but the supply pressure is large. The spot price may have limited upside, and the futures price of the near - month contract has upward pressure [32][33]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples may be strong, and the futures price may be strong. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival boosts the price [34][35]. - **Red Dates**: The current view is oscillatory and bearish. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the consumption is difficult to grow significantly without external positive factors [36]. - **Live Pigs**: It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but the live - pig inventory is expected to decrease, and the factors for the price to stabilize and rebound are accumulating [37]. 6. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, the oil price will return to fundamental trading; otherwise, it may rise. The US - Iran conflict is likely to cool down [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [40]. - **Plastics**: The price is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cut is expanding, and the future price depends on the resolution of the war [41]. - **Rubber**: The domestic Yunnan production area has started tapping, and the price is oscillatory and strong in the short term. It is advisable to hold the strategy of narrowing the spread between RU and NR and pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [42]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost side and may have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty. It is not advisable to be overly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is advisable to adopt an intraday wide - range oscillatory strategy. The price is affected by coal prices, supply - side production cuts, and export volume increases, as well as futures premium and inventory accumulation [45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the profit has rebounded [47][48]. - **PVC**: The price may have a callback risk. The core factor is whether the upstream ethylene production cut can continue and expand. If the oil transportation problem is solved, the price may fall rapidly [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions. The cost side is weakening, but the supply contraction provides support. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance progress, and the recovery of polyester demand [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, it will return to fundamental trading. It is expected to continue to weaken, but the price may be stronger than that of crude oil [51]. 7. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of the macro and commodity emotions. The import is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The high inventory and weak demand are in a game with the cost and energy - related production cuts of overseas pulp mills. It is advisable to go long on dips if the market improves [53]. - **Logs**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity emotions. The procurement enthusiasm of processing plants is low, and the fundamentals may stabilize if the demand recovers [54]. - **Urea**: The far - month contract pays attention to cost - driven and agricultural product price increases, and the near - month contract follows the policy. The current supply - demand is balanced, and the impact of the state reserve release needs to be observed [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situation is average, with expected lower freight quotes. The container shipping market is expected to be volatile and weak, with a large range of fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macro and Container Shipping European Line - **Market Logic**: On March 23, SCFIS closed at 1,693.26 points, up 8.8% from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures. On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was $1,636/TEU, with a 1.1% increase [1] - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the container shipping European line EC2604 contract fell to 1,803.0, a decrease of 6.04%. The decline of far - month contracts was greater than that of near - month contracts [1] - **Important Information**: The permanent mission of Iran to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination; Iran rejected the US - proposed cease - fire plan and put forward 5 conditions for a cease - fire; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that military operations against Iran will "continue in full force"; Maersk significantly lowered the opening price for the 15th week, which may prompt other liner companies to follow suit in soliciting cargo [1] - **Trading Strategy**: The container shipping market is expected to be volatile and weak, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities and focus on risk control [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The market may still be in a wide - range volatile state. If the geopolitical impact does not significantly worsen and the market cargo volume weakens again in April, leading to pressure on the loading rate, the European line center may still have the risk of weakening and moving downward in a volatile manner. Geopolitical, passage, and spot transportation aspects may still exert certain pressure on the market. The current trading volume and open interest of the European line are relatively low, and the liquidity activity is not high. It is recommended that investors manage their positions and risks well [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price Futures Contract Data - EC2604: closed at 1803, settlement price 1786.4, down 6.9098%, trading volume 18169, open interest 12060 [9] - EC2605: closed at 2086, settlement price 2069.1, down 8.2189%, trading volume 1146, open interest 1414 [9] - EC2606: closed at 2364.1, settlement price 2318.6, down 8.7596%, trading volume 12555, open interest 12845 [9] - EC2607: closed at 2475.2, settlement price 2441.4, down 6.3524%, trading volume 421, open interest 891 [9] - EC2608: closed at 2354.2, settlement price 2288.6, down 7.8255%, trading volume 1120, open interest 2720 [9] - EC2609: closed at 1658.1, settlement price 1666.1, down 6.2903%, trading volume 84, open interest 498 [9] - EC2610: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1532.3, down 5.0678%, trading volume 2222, open interest 7330 [9] - EC2612: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1713, down 4.8756%, trading volume 143, open interest 503 [9] Spot Freight Data - Comprehensive index: SCFI 1707 [10] - Nordic route: SCFI 1636, SCFIS 1693.26 (+8.8%) [10] - Mediterranean route: SCFI 2784 [10] - US West route: SCFI 2054, SCFIS 1024.11 (-7.7%) [10] - US East route: SCFI 2922 [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage - As of March 24, the ship traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz was 3 [3] - Iran stated in a letter to members of the International Maritime Organization that "non - hostile ships" can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordinating with the Iranian authorities, excluding ships related to the US and Israel [3] - Trump proposed 15 points for US - Iran negotiations and may intend to cease fire for one month [2][3] Shipping Fundamentals - Since March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed bookings to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. CMA CGM has previously resumed bookings on the Middle East route, with transshipment required at ports outside the Strait of Hormuz [3] Spot Quotes - No information provided Seasonal Trend of European Line Spot Freight - No information provided

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran situation, on global markets, highlighting the interplay between high oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1][5][17]. Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased liquidity support to stabilize the market [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with expectations of only one rate cut this year, indicating a prolonged high-rate environment [1]. - Oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with Goldman Sachs and others raising short-term oil price forecasts due to supply risks [1]. - Gold prices are driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, closing above $4,500 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights Shipping - The EC index fell by 6.04%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - Container shipping rates have decreased, with significant price adjustments noted for large containers, indicating pressure on shipping rates due to reduced export demand [2][33]. Copper - Copper prices rose by 0.69%, supported by tight supply conditions, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [24]. - The overall copper production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline, with attention needed on downstream demand and smelting output [24]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed a rebound, with significant trading volumes, although the market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [3][27]. - The financing balance decreased, indicating a more cautious approach from investors during the earnings disclosure period [3][27]. Group 3: Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with recent geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite and liquidity conditions [23]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [23]. Energy - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical developments, with the U.S. delaying military actions against Iran, which has implications for energy prices [18]. - The International Energy Agency noted that the current Middle East crisis could have a more severe impact on energy prices than past oil crises [18]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian soybean harvest rates are lagging behind historical averages, but overall production is expected to be high, impacting global soybean prices [28]. - The palm oil market is influenced by production increases in Southeast Asia, although potential export restrictions from Indonesia could support prices [29].