汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250608 乘用车需求向好 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 5 月第 5 周（5.26-6.1）乘用车销量 46.6 万辆，同比 +18.3%，环比+16.7%；新能源乘用车销量 24.7 万辆，同比+30.1%，环比 +11.6%；新能源渗透率 53.1%，环比-2.4pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现弱于市场。本周（6 月 3 日-6 月 6 日）A 股汽 车板块下跌 0.01%，在申万子行业中排名第 25 位，表现弱于沪深 300（0.96%）。 细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、汽车零部件分别上涨 2.66%、0.92%、 0.48%，乘用车、商用载客车、商用载货车分别下跌 0.12%、2.67%、5.93%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集 团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振，看好智驾加速落地。2025 年 5 月 28 日小鹏 M03 加推 Max 版（含 502km/600km 续航）及 Plus 版，上市 1 小时 ...

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 55% by 2025, with multiple hybrid models launching in the second half of the year [1] - The retail and export of passenger vehicles in mainland China are projected to grow by 2.9% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, in 2025 [1] - The price of intelligent driving models is anticipated to drop below 200,000 RMB, with domestic software like Momenta leading the market [1] - Increased competition in the automotive market is expected in the second half of the year, with a focus on companies like BYD and XPeng Motors [1] Group 2: Heavy Trucks - Heavy truck sales in China are projected to reach 950,000 units (including exports) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The market performance for heavy trucks has been relatively flat, with cumulative sales of 350,000 units in the first four months of 2025 [2] - Local policies are expected to boost market conditions in the second half of the year, enhancing the market share of leading companies [2] Group 3: Two-Wheelers - The new national standards and trade-in policies are expected to support a recovery in the two-wheeler market, with sales projected to reach 56 million units in 2025 [2] - The new standards raise production technology requirements and emphasize the importance of smart technology in the industry [2] - Industry leader Yadea is favored for its strong market position [2] Group 4: Batteries - The trend is shifting towards range-extending large batteries, with a focus on commercial vehicle batteries [2] - The recent phase of tariff agreements between China and the U.S. introduces uncertainties, while South Korean companies are increasing their presence in the North American market [2] - CATL is recommended for its technological advancements and overseas expansion [2] Group 5: Robotics - The industrialization of robotics is approaching, with companies like Tesla and UBTECH announcing mass production plans [2] - Chinese companies are expected to benefit from cost advantages and technological accumulation [2] - Attention is drawn to core components with low domestic production rates and high value proportions, such as planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The U.S. government plans to intensify restrictions on the Chinese technology sector, potentially including subsidiaries of sanctioned Chinese companies, requiring prior government approval for transactions with these subsidiaries. This regulation may be announced as early as June [1] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff reductions are seen as a second round of pressure from the U.S. aimed at stalling China's development. However, this may inadvertently provide more opportunities for domestic technology industries in China, fostering their growth [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The global silicon carbide market is experiencing intense price competition, with leading companies like Wolfspeed and Renesas considering exiting the electric vehicle silicon carbide business due to losses. In contrast, domestic companies such as Tianyue Advanced are achieving profitability, indicating a positive outlook for China's silicon carbide industry [2] - The major market for automotive silicon carbide is primarily in China, and the price competition is improving the cost-effectiveness of silicon carbide compared to silicon-based devices, suggesting a long-term increase in the domestic silicon carbide industry's prosperity [2] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - In May 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, indicating a positive impact from the domestic truck replacement policy [5] - Sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to exceed 15,000 units in May, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 190%, with a domestic penetration rate surpassing 23%. This suggests that the application of new energy in the heavy truck sector has reached an economic viability threshold [5] - The rapid increase in electric truck sales is anticipated to drive further growth in lithium battery sales, indicating significant investment opportunities in the next 2-3 years as the industry undergoes major changes [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the heavy-duty truck (重卡) market in China, specifically analyzing sales data for May and the first five months of the year [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **May Wholesale and Retail Sales**: - May wholesale sales reached 83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a month-on-month decrease of 5% [1]. - Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 436,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1]. - Retail sales in May were approximately 65,000 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 21% but a month-on-month decline of 5% [1]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first five months were about 287,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 13% [1]. - **Impact of Policies**: - The overall retail performance exceeding wholesale is attributed to the gradual effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy implemented across various provinces [1]. - Over 85% of provincial "old-for-new" policies have been introduced, indicating a positive trend for future sales [2]. - **Natural Gas Heavy-Duty Trucks**: - Retail sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks in May were around 15,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 29% and a month-on-month decline of 12% [1]. - Cumulative sales for the first five months were 79,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15% [1]. - The penetration rate for natural gas trucks in May was approximately 23%, down 16 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points month-on-month [1][2]. - **Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks**: - Retail sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in May are expected to exceed 15,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 182% [2]. - Cumulative sales for the first five months surpassed 60,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 188% [2]. - The penetration rate for electric trucks in May exceeded 23%, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Sales Growth Trends**: - Retail sales growth rates for March, April, and May were -4%, +6%, and +21% respectively, indicating a consistent month-on-month improvement [2]. - The anticipated effects of policies are expected to become more pronounced starting in June, with projections suggesting a potential year-on-year sales increase of 27% for the second half of the year under optimistic assumptions [2]. Additional Important Insights - The decline in natural gas truck penetration is primarily due to the slow implementation of the "old-for-new" policy in some northern provinces and a decrease in oil prices [2]. - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with projections for total annual sales ranging from 930,000 to 1,030,000 units, depending on market conditions [2].

摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025年5月第4周（5.19-5.25）乘用车销量39.9万辆，同比+12.1%，环比+2.6%；新能源乘用车销量22.2万辆，同比+20.4%，环比+2.0%；新能源渗透率55.4%， 环比-0.4%。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现弱于市场 本周（5月26日-5月30日）A股汽车板块下跌2.90%，在申万子行业中排名第30位，表现弱于沪深300（-1.49%）。细分板块中，汽车服务上涨2.13%，商用载客车、 商用载货车、汽车零部件、摩托车及其他、乘用车分别下跌0.48%、0.52%、1.79%、2.66%、5.59%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 无人配送需求强劲 L4场景应用加速落地 需求端：人力缺口与成本压力驱动刚需。 快递业务量5年CAGR达22.5%，但快递员数量CAGR仅1.4%，2024年人均日配送量超100件；末端配送占物流成本60% （"最后五公里"），无人化可降本增效填补人力缺口。 供给端：技术规模化带来成本革命。 乘用车L2+渗透率超90%（2030年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has experienced a "double increase" in sales for May 2025, indicating a positive trend amidst previous pessimism, driven by policies and market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, approximately 83,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, representing a 6% year-on-year increase from 78,200 units in the same month last year, despite a slight month-on-month decline of 5% from April [5]. - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, the heavy truck market recorded sales of about 435,500 units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of approximately 1% [5]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy for National IV trucks has significantly stimulated the market, leading to a notable increase in both wholesale and terminal sales of heavy trucks in May [7]. - As of now, over half of the provinces and regions have implemented the "old-for-new" policy, which has positively influenced the demand for new heavy trucks [7]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in May are expected to have increased by over 20% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decline of around 5% [10]. - Electric heavy trucks have seen a remarkable growth, with sales exceeding 15,000 units in May, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 190%, and achieving a market penetration rate of over 23% [13][14]. - Diesel heavy trucks also experienced a significant increase in sales, with an estimated year-on-year growth of around 31% in May [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market is expected to maintain continuous growth in June, driven by the ongoing implementation of the "old-for-new" policies [18]. - The sales decline of natural gas heavy trucks is anticipated to narrow to single digits in June, creating favorable conditions for a rebound in the second half of the year [18].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in subsidy policy for heavy - duty trucks can significantly boost the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in the following year [3][16]. - In 2025, the new policy expands the replacement scope of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and "National IV" standard heavy - duty trucks, which is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, increasing the sales volume from 900,000 units in 2024 to 1,000,000 units, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62]. - Currently, the large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the inclusion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the 2025 trade - in subsidy policy, is expected to drive the continuous increase in the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks [3][47][61]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - The automobile industry is crucial to the economy, including promoting GDP growth, activating the consumer market, and attracting investment. When automobile sales are sluggish, the state will introduce stimulus policies such as trade - in subsidies [9]. - Since 2000, China's automobile sales have gone through stages of high - speed development, adjustment, and stable development. When sales are sluggish, the state has introduced purchase tax exemption policies and, more recently, trade - in subsidy policies [10][12][13]. 2. Review of China's Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policy - In 2009, two policies were issued. The subsidy amount was initially 0.3 - 0.6 million yuan per vehicle and later increased to 0.5 - 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy significantly increased the heavy - duty truck sales growth rate in 2010 from 2.27% in 2009 to 37.7% [14][60]. - In 2015, a policy targeted at semi - trailers and heavy - duty trucks was introduced, with a subsidy of 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy led to significant growth in heavy - duty truck sales from 2016 - 2017, with year - on - year growth rates of 29.51% and 56.12% respectively [15][61]. - From 2019 to the present, many cities have introduced trade - in subsidy policies for operating trucks, and despite the economic downturn, the total annual sales of heavy - duty trucks in China have remained on an upward trend [25][26]. 3. Frequent Introduction of Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policies in the Past Two Years - In 2024, multiple trade - in subsidy policies were introduced, but the heavy - duty truck sales did not recover, mainly due to weak real estate demand and low "National III" vehicle ownership, low upgrade willingness, and vehicle condition and procedure issues [36][44]. - In 2025, the new policy has three changes: expanding the subsidy scope to include natural gas heavy - duty trucks, allowing new - purchase subsidies for trucks with less than 1 - year pre - retirement, and adding "National IV" trucks to the retirement scope [45][46]. - The sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks has been increasing, and the current large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the 2025 policy, is expected to drive further growth [47]. 4. Conclusion - The trade - in subsidy policies in 2009 and 2015 effectively boosted the sales of heavy - duty trucks in the following years [60][61]. - The current subsidy policy is similar to that in 2015. It is expected to drive the recovery of heavy - duty truck sales in 2025 and 2026, but the growth rate will be much lower due to real estate demand constraints [62]. - The new policy in 2025 is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62].

Core Viewpoint - The smart automotive sector is experiencing accelerated penetration of intelligent technology, which is expected to drive differentiation within the industry, particularly in the automotive parts sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The Special Vehicle Industry Innovation Development Conference was held in Shiyan, Hubei from May 15 to 17, focusing on the implementation of new energy and intelligent technology, emphasizing industry chain collaboration and global layout [1]. - Data indicates that by 2024, the penetration rate of new energy special vehicles in China is projected to reach 29.8% [1]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to see a divergence in revenue and profit growth from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with the intelligent driving industry chain performing notably well [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Benefiting from the increase in intelligent driving penetration, sectors such as intelligent chassis, domain control, and sensors are expected to see performance growth surpassing the industry average [1]. - The penetration rate of L2.5 and above intelligent driving models is anticipated to enter a rapid growth phase by 2025 [1]. - The passenger vehicle market is accelerating its phase-out, with leading domestic automakers and new force car companies expected to expand their market share [1]. Group 3: Commercial Vehicle Outlook - In the commercial vehicle segment, new energy buses are maintaining high demand supported by subsidy policies, while the heavy truck market shows resilience in both domestic and international demand [1]. - Gas and new energy heavy trucks are likely to continue benefiting from market conditions [1]. Group 4: ETF and Index Information - The Smart Automotive ETF (159889) rose by 1.63%, tracking the CS Smart Automotive Index (930721), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and includes listed companies involved in intelligent driving and vehicle networking [1].

4月的"重卡第一影响力指数"与市场同步迎来了7%的增长。 据第一商用车网统计，在2025年4月（2025年3月31日-2025年4月27日）的4周内，国内9 家主流重卡品牌"重卡第一影响力指数"的总得分为2238分，环比（2045）增长9%，同比去 年同期（2088）增长7.2%。 经历前几个月的蛰伏，4月"重卡第一影响力指数"迎来了与市场销量的同步复苏。同时，从4 月起，我们对"重卡第一影响力指数"的统计事项进行了调整，增加了"视频号传播"统计，也 助推了总得分的增长。 2025年4月"重卡第一影响力指数"大事件统计 | 企业 | 传播事件 | 进 | 主推车型 | 地点 | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 10000 辆 新能源子 | | J6L 纯电 | 山东 | 此次交付的子母车是一汽 | | | | | | | 解放在技术与场景深度融 | | 汽解放 | | 大单 | | | 合的创新成果,实现了"高 | | | 母车战略 | | 动牵引车 | 邹城 | 效运营"与"绿色环保" | | | 合作 | | | | 的双重突破 | | | | ...