2025 年 04 月 14 日 油气产量增长稳定，归母净利润创历史新高 —中国石油（601857.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 中国石油 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《中国石油（601857）：半年报 业绩增长，资本开支缩减，分红优 势显著》2024-08-27 2、《中国石油（601857）：盈利能 力持续提升，关注估值修复机会》 2023-05-30 中国石油发布年度业绩报告：2024 年全年公司实现营业收入 29379.81 亿元，同比下滑 2.48%；实现归母净利润 1646.76 亿元，同比增长 2.02% ，其中， 2024Q4 单季实现收入 6817.0 ...

21世纪经济报道记者雷椰 李德尚玉 实习生 刘宇博 北京报道 碳中和周报关注"双碳"领域的最新前沿动态，包括碳中和政策、地方动态、企业实践等。我们将通过精选每周碳中和领域的重 大事件，并进行点评的方式，提供一个及时全面的碳中和信息平台。 一、碳中和政策 1、农业强国规划出台：加快推进农业全面绿色转型 21碳中和课题组快评：推进新阶段农业农村发展，要以高质量发展为主题，要把资源环境承载力作为前提和基础，在绿色转型 中推动农业农村发展实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 2、两部委发文加快推进虚拟电厂发展 4月11日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》，这是我国首份针对虚拟电厂的国家级 专项政策。文件明确指出：虚拟电厂是聚合分布式电源、可调节负荷、储能等各类分散资源，作为新型经营主体协同参与电力 系统优化和电力市场交易的电力运行组织模式；并提出："到2027年，全国虚拟电厂调节能力达到2000万千瓦以上；到2030年达 到5000万千瓦以上"。文件明确了虚拟电厂参与市场机制基本建设原则和参与电力系统运行机制要点，并倡导多元主体共同参与 虚拟电厂建设运营，将带动产业链上下游发展，构建繁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential for excess returns in certain segments under tariff impacts [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical index has historically underperformed the broader market, but segments like refining and oil services have shown periods of excess returns [5][6]. - As of April 11, 2025, refining margins for major domestic refineries reached 767 CNY/ton, with a significant month-on-month increase of 24.16% [9]. - The report highlights that the current procurement of crude oil in China is primarily from Russia and Middle Eastern countries, limiting the impact on refining costs from U.S. imports [9]. - The oil service sector is expected to continue its upward trend due to domestic requirements for increased reserves and production [11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at 64.76 USD/barrel on April 11, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [20]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 583, down by 7 rigs week-on-week [30]. Refining Sector - The report notes a recovery in refining profitability, with domestic refining margins improving significantly [9]. - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at 9.87 USD/barrel, down by 4.08 USD/barrel from the previous week [9]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, with the average price in East China at 4316.25 CNY/ton, down 11.43% week-on-week [9]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry is currently underperforming but may improve as new capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [16]. - It also suggests looking at companies with high dividend yields like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [16]. - For the ethylene production segment, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [16]. - In the polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are recommended as they are expected to benefit from tightening supply-demand conditions [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The actual controller, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 20 billion and RMB 40 billion over the next 12 months, starting from April 8, 2025, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][2] - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, achieving a net profit of RMB 137.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, despite a 2.8% decline in average crude oil prices [2] - The company aims for stable production growth with a focus on high-quality development, targeting net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [2] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a projected dividend of HKD 1.40 per share for 2024, reflecting a 12% increase and a payout ratio of 44.7% [3] Summary by Sections Investment Plan - CNOOC's plan to increase its stake is based on confidence in the company's long-term development and the recognition of the capital market's investment value [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 137.9 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year, while the average crude oil price fell by 2.8% [2] - The company’s net production reached a historical high of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, marking a 7.2% increase from the previous year [2] - The main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was USD 28.52, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, which is an increase from the previous lower limit of 40% [3] - The high dividend yield and consistent payout policy enhance the company's investment attractiveness in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 150.3 billion, RMB 156.2 billion, and RMB 161.4 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.16, RMB 3.29, and RMB 3.40 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - CNOOC achieved record high oil and gas production and reserves in 2024, with a total production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5] - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, with the average oil production cost decreasing to $28.52 per barrel of oil equivalent, maintaining a competitive edge in profitability [5] - CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2024 reached RMB 132.7 billion, aimed at sustaining production growth and infrastructure development [6][7] - The company has shown resilience against external challenges, maintaining stable operations and proposing a dividend of HKD 0.66 per share for 2024 [8] - Profit forecasts for CNOOC indicate a net profit of RMB 150 billion in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - CNOOC's stock price is currently at RMB 24.34, with a market capitalization of RMB 115.69 billion [1] Financial Highlights - In 2024, CNOOC reported total revenue of RMB 420.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit of RMB 137.94 billion, up 11.38% from the previous year [4] - The company achieved a sales volume of 563 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a 9.4% increase in demand [5] Production and Cost Management - CNOOC's proven oil and gas reserves reached 7.27 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with a reserve replacement ratio of 167% [5] - The company maintained stable operating costs, with the oil production cost remaining flat at $7.61 per barrel of oil equivalent despite a 9.8% increase in overall operating expenses [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC aims to produce between 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, with continued capital expenditure to support this target [7] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 150 billion, RMB 159.7 billion, and RMB 173.1 billion, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - CNOOC achieved record high oil and gas production and reserves in 2024, with a total production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5] - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, with the average oil equivalent cost decreasing to $28.52 per barrel, maintaining a competitive edge in profitability [5] - CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2024 reached RMB 132.7 billion, aimed at sustaining production growth and infrastructure investment [6][7] - The company has shown resilience against external challenges, maintaining stable operations and proposing a dividend of HKD 0.66 per share for 2024 [8] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady growth in net profit, with estimates of RMB 150 billion, RMB 159.7 billion, and RMB 173.1 billion respectively [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - CNOOC's stock price is currently at RMB 24.34, with a market capitalization of RMB 115.69 billion [1] Financial Highlights - In 2024, CNOOC reported total revenue of RMB 420.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit of RMB 137.94 billion, up 11.38% from the previous year [4] Production and Cost Management - The company achieved a total oil and gas production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a sales volume of 563 million barrels, reflecting a 9.4% increase in demand [5] - The average realized oil price was $76.75 per barrel, a decrease of approximately 1.6% year-on-year, while the average realized natural gas price was $7.72 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.3% [5] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to maintain a capital expenditure level similar to 2024 to support production growth, with a target production of 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025 [7] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, enhancing shareholder returns [8]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) emphasizes its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, showcasing significant achievements in these areas through its 2024 ESG report [1][2][3] Group 1: ESG Reporting and Recognition - CNOOC positions its ESG report as a vital tool for compliance disclosure and stakeholder communication, reflecting its progress and effectiveness in ESG management [1] - The company received multiple awards in 2024, including recognition in the Fortune China ESG Influence List, highlighting the capital market's acknowledgment of its ESG efforts [1] Group 2: Environmental Initiatives - CNOOC is committed to green development, focusing on both oil and gas exploration, with a significant increase in domestic natural gas production [2] - The company has implemented 18 energy-saving projects, achieving a total carbon dioxide reduction of 589,500 tons [2] - CNOOC is advancing its renewable energy and carbon-neutral initiatives, with ongoing projects like the "Haiyou Guanquan" demonstration project and the construction of two offshore CCUS bases [2] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - CNOOC actively fulfills its social responsibilities, aiming for maximum social contribution and sharing development results with stakeholders [3] - The company created over 22,000 jobs globally and invested 133.12 million RMB in donations and public welfare projects, with over 83 million RMB specifically for rural revitalization [3] - CNOOC's community-building initiatives include local talent development projects in Uganda, recognized as a global best practice in poverty alleviation [3] Group 4: Governance and Future Outlook - CNOOC is dedicated to optimizing corporate governance, minimizing environmental impact, and maximizing social contributions [3] - The Chairman of CNOOC, Wang Dongjin, expressed the company's commitment to navigating future opportunities and challenges through governance, resource supply, technological innovation, and value creation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][25]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2,938 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 164.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company emphasizes high dividends, with a total cash dividend distribution of 86.02 billion yuan, accounting for 52.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [9][12]. - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 262.2 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on oil and gas exploration and development [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 164.7 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5][12]. - The average Brent crude oil price was 80.76 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the company’s oil and gas sales volume increased, demonstrating resilience in its operational performance [6][12]. Segment Performance - The oil and gas and new energy segment generated revenue of 906.8 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, with operating profit of 159.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1% [6][15]. - The refining and chemical segment saw revenue decline to 1,192.6 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping 42% to 21.4 billion yuan due to intensified competition [7][15]. - The sales segment reported revenue of 2,454.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with operating profit down 31.2% to 16.5 billion yuan [7][15]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3,051 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits of 165.6 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [12][14]. - The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to increase by 1.6% compared to 2024, focusing on key exploration and development projects [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 420.51 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year. However, in the fourth quarter alone, revenue decreased by 13.94% year-on-year to 94.48 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 18.78% to 21.28 billion yuan [2][6]. - The company's oil and gas net production significantly increased, achieving better performance than market oil price fluctuations, with a total net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12]. - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 was $79.86 per barrel, down 2.81% year-on-year, while the company achieved an average oil price of $76.75 per barrel, a decline of 1.6%, which was less than the Brent price drop [12]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a major cost advantage in barrel oil production, where the main cost was $28.52 per barrel, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [12]. - Future outlook suggests that oil prices are expected to stabilize at a mid-to-high level, with net production targets set for 2025-2027 ranging from 760 to 830 million barrels of oil equivalent, indicating steady growth [12]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44.7% for 2024, with total dividends amounting to about 66.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 420.51 billion yuan and net profit of 137.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.94% and 11.38% respectively [2][6]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue drop of 13.94% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 18.78% [2][6]. Production and Cost Management - The total net production reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects [12]. - The company maintained a competitive cost structure, with a barrel oil cost of $28.52, down 1.1% from the previous year [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates oil prices to remain above $70 per barrel, with production targets set for gradual increases over the next few years [12]. - The focus on shareholder returns is expected to continue, with a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% in the coming years [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The deep-sea industry is recognized for its vast resource potential and strategic importance, with significant government support anticipated for deep-sea technology development [3][16] - Deep-sea resources, particularly energy and mineral resources, are abundant, with deep-sea areas becoming major contributors to global oil and gas reserves [18][22] - The development of underwater technology and equipment has made significant progress, laying the foundation for deep-sea resource exploitation [35][50] Summary by Sections Section 1: Deep Sea as a Resource and Strategic Area - The deep sea, defined as waters below 200 meters, constitutes about two-thirds of the ocean floor and is rich in biological and mineral diversity [3][10] - China's total marine area is approximately 4.73 million square kilometers, with significant deep-sea regions in the South China Sea and East China Sea [12][16] - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology in its 2025 work report, indicating future policy support for this sector [16][18] Section 2: Civilian Sector - Breakthroughs in Underwater Technology and Resource Development - Underwater technology encompasses exploration, construction, oil and gas extraction, and mineral development, with recent advancements in various equipment [35][50] - The core sensor for deep-sea exploration is sonar, which is essential for environmental monitoring and resource assessment [37][39] - The development of underwater mining technology is progressing, with successful trials and increasing industrialization potential for oil, gas, and mineral resources [59][70] Section 3: Deep-Sea Warfare - Underwater Defense Capabilities - The deep sea offers a large, concealed operational space, making it strategically significant for military operations [74] - The underwater defense system includes both infrastructure and equipment, with a focus on unmanned systems for various military tasks [74][75] - There is an urgent need for China to enhance its underwater defense capabilities, with new technologies and equipment being introduced [74][75]