发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：冬储进入尾声 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，午后下跌。焦煤供应过剩格局显现，但春节临近，国 内矿山逐渐开启假期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利 用率为 89.13%，环比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。进口煤及国 内生产边际减少，本期焦煤矿山库存去库，周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化 企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距 离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下 游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万 吨。焦炭一轮提涨落地，焦企利润回升，但钢厂利润减少，下一轮提涨预计难 度高，下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整 理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限，偏弱震荡为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1027 元/吨，较上个交易日+3 元/吨。 基差方面： ...

- The report tracks the prosperity signals of various industries, including coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - The coal industry revenue and profit growth are estimated monthly based on price and capacity factors[10] - The livestock farming industry uses the farrowing sow inventory and the slaughter coefficient method to estimate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months later[15][16] - The steel industry profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel[18] - The structural materials and construction engineering industries' profitability changes are tracked using price and cost indicators for glass and cement manufacturing[24] - The fuel refining and oil service industries' profit growth and cracking spread are estimated based on changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices[27] - The coal industry profit growth for February 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative due to a slight year-on-year decrease in coal prices[14] - The livestock farming industry predicts a potential pig supply of 166.51 million heads for Q2 2026, with a demand forecast of 171.43 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - The steel industry profit growth for January 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative, with the rolling 12-period PMI average not exceeding the threshold[22] - The glass industry gross profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth[26] - The cement industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth, with no significant increase in new housing starts[26] - The fuel refining industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to slightly decrease year-on-year[27][28]

国家能源集团神东煤炭藏着硬核"智能快递员"！不送包裹专运煤，每小时运力堪比几十辆重卡，7800米超长地下线路独立畅行，传感器全程护航零失误，地 下数百米实现煤炭智能高效配送～解锁能源保供的科技密码，这波煤矿智能运输太秀了！ 0:00 / 2:12 ...

谁能拒绝井下的冬日限定温暖？国家能源集团神东煤炭萌趣"煤小宝"领取腊八任务，热粥从地面食堂出发，穿越巷道奔赴井下，稳稳送到矿工师傅手中~一 碗热粥暖透寒冬，一份坚守守护万家灯火。岁末粥暖心，新年多欢欣，致敬每一位寒冬里的保供人!祝大家腊八安康，事事如愿~ 0:00 / 1:36 ...

0:00 / 1:02 新春将至，年味愈浓。国家能源集团神东煤炭矿区已换上"新春盛装"，光影交织、流光溢彩，浓浓的新春氛围扑面而来。灯火映团圆，祥和满矿区，以温馨 年味迎接新年到来，愿新岁皆安，岁岁欢喜！ ...

为保障冬季煤炭稳定供应，神东煤炭充分发挥大协同生产创效优势。精准调度指挥，精细生产组织，精 益过程管控，强化设备研发、采购、运行、维修和配件供应管理，确保高产稳供，做好"温暖担当"下的 能源安全守护。 凛冬已至，气温骤降。国家能源集团神东煤炭大柳塔煤矿井下，采煤机滚筒飞速旋转，优质煤炭从煤壁 上被剥采下来…… 就在大家一筹莫展时，队里的技术骨干们自发组成了攻关小组，创新制作出了专用的运输工装平台，只 要将设备配件放在平台上，就可以轻松地完成推运任务。 在这场冬季保供攻坚战中，年核定产能3300万吨的大柳塔煤矿发挥着中流砥柱作用。大柳塔煤矿综采五 队，更是以全矿三分之一以上的产量占比，成为保供链条上最关键的一环。 "压力28.5兆帕，支架初撑力达标！"综采五队队长邬拴的声音清晰地穿透工作面。 邬拴身后，长达214米的52300综采工作面如同一条黑色长龙，蜿蜒伸向巷道深处。这个十月初才投入生 产的工作面，因煤层厚度大、顶板压力强，刚一启动就遇到难题：机尾三角区顶板频繁出现片帮，常规 支护设备根本扛不住压力。 但这里的每一个困难、每一刀煤都牵动着更大的能源保供大局。 "必须创新！"面对复杂地质条件，邬拴和队员们做出 ...

0:00 / 1:40 大寒至，年味浓！家家户户忙着扫尘备年货，盼一场团圆相聚；而在神东煤炭的百米井下，能源保供人正默默坚守岗位。大寒迎年，迎的是人间烟火的圆 满；寒冬坚守，守的是万家灯火的温暖。年末岁尾，他们以平凡之躯筑牢保供防线，用责任与担当，护佑新春的万家祥和，静待新春钟声，如约敲响。 ...

Core Insights - The successful development of the first domestically produced large-scale intelligent pressure coupling equipment marks a significant breakthrough in China's ability to independently control key technological equipment in the coal mining sector, breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly [1][2] Group 1: Equipment Development - The equipment has been tested for over three months at the testing workshop of De Mining Jiuding (Tianjin) Technology Co., Ltd., achieving international leading performance indicators [1] - The project was a collaborative effort involving Tianjin University, China Coal, and De Mining Jiuding, resulting in a comprehensive breakthrough from theoretical research to equipment design and manufacturing [1] Group 2: Technical Achievements - The equipment successfully overcame four core challenges: high-efficiency conversion of ultra-high pressure fluid potential energy, ultra-low loss of cooling capacity, high reliability of all core components, and intelligent sensing and control of cooling capacity delivery [2] - It features advanced artificial intelligence architecture, providing high usability, synchronization, and expandability, enabling dynamic sensing of ground cooling systems, precise operation control, and real-time safety monitoring [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - This development provides an efficient, economical, and reliable domestic solution for heat hazard management in coal mines, laying a solid foundation for enhancing safety production levels and technological self-reliance in China's energy industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal to establish a provincial-level evaluation center for technicians and senior technicians in Shanxi aims to address the bottleneck in the promotion of skilled talent, enhancing the skill evaluation system and supporting the transition of the manufacturing industry towards intelligent manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Liu Qi, a representative and leader of a national-level skills master studio, suggests the creation of a unified evaluation system for technicians across Shanxi, which currently lacks social evaluation institutions for skilled workers [1]. - The proposed implementation plan is "1+11", where a provincial evaluation headquarters will be established, and 11 local centers will be set up in key vocational colleges or large state-owned enterprises to cover local industries [1][2]. Group 2: Operational Mechanism - The evaluation system will separate training from assessment, with a standardized question bank and evaluation criteria developed for around 20 key occupations in sectors such as coal, equipment manufacturing, new energy, and digital industries [2]. - Liu emphasizes the need for strict supervision and management, proposing an annual inspection system and a "red-yellow card" management system to address issues like fraud and low standards [2]. Group 3: Expected Outcomes - The evaluation system is expected to be completed in approximately three years, with an annual evaluation capacity projected to reach 10,000 individuals, thereby stimulating the enthusiasm of technical workers to enhance their skills [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the increasing interest in high dividend yield stocks, particularly in the context of declining bond yields and the need for investors to seek higher returns in equity investments [1][2][3] - Long-term value in dividend investing is shifting from merely seeking high dividend rates to focusing on sustainable dividend capabilities, with a recommended expected return rate of over 3%-5% and a strong safety margin [1][2] - The performance of high dividend sectors has shown recovery, driven by strong demand for insurance funds and favorable pricing logic in cyclical high dividend sectors such as oil, steel, and coal [1][2] Group 2 - The market is experiencing challenges in restoring risk premiums, with significant volatility in cyclical products affecting market profitability, leading to a potential "small platform period" for investor risk appetite [2][3] - The insurance sector is seeing robust growth in new business, particularly in dividend insurance sales, which is increasing the allocation of investment funds towards long-duration assets [2][3] - The dividend strategy remains a key focus for equity investments, with pressures on cash investment returns expected to increase by 2026, reinforcing the importance of dividend strategies for companies [2][3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, dividend strategies are expected to continue serving as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, with dividend assets showing lower valuation levels and volatility compared to other asset classes [3][9] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (520900) closely tracks the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, which selects stable dividend-paying companies from the central state-owned enterprises [3][9] - The top five industries in the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index include oil and petrochemicals (28.63%), telecommunications (21.75%), coal (11.80%), transportation (10.47%), and public utilities (7.94%), indicating a strong value and defensive characteristic [4][10]