Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's China equity strategy team maintains a constructive outlook on the CSI 300 index, projecting a target level of 5200 points by the end of 2026 [1] Investment Themes - The four major investment themes for 2026 include the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, growth in domestic and international AI infrastructure/monetization, favorable macroeconomic conditions in developed markets benefiting overseas sales, and a K-shaped consumption recovery, along with potential new real estate policies [1] Stock Selection - The team has identified IT and healthcare A-shares that can capitalize on China's innovation opportunities, using metrics such as market capitalization, average daily trading volume, and overseas revenue [1] - A shift from value stocks to growth stocks is expected by early 2026 [1] Sector Focus - The team has selected leading A-share companies in sectors such as automotive, battery materials, lithium, photovoltaics, cement, chemicals, coal, steel, dairy, hog farming, liquor, and logistics, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - The transition from price/scale competition to quality competition is seen as a long-term adjustment over a decade [1]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Shenzhen has shown a significant rebound following the implementation of the new policy on September 5, with notable increases in both new and second-hand residential transactions [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - From September 6 to October 6, the number of new residential property registrations reached 2,824 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.48% [1][3] - During the same period, second-hand residential property registrations totaled 3,699 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 32.63% [1][3] Group 2: Promotional Activities - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, various promotional activities were held at popular tourist spots like Qianhai Ice and Snow World and Nanshan Museum, attracting significant public interest in real estate [2] - Nearly 30 promotional events were organized to showcase Shenzhen's livability and urban appeal, further stimulating buyer interest [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The new policy has effectively stimulated both first-time and upgrade demand, leading to a surge in sales and inquiries for new properties [3] - Experts predict that the market's active momentum will continue into the fourth quarter, supported by the ongoing effects of the new policy [4]

Core Insights - The new real estate policy in Shenzhen, implemented on September 5, has positively impacted the housing market, leading to increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand homes [1][2][4]. New Housing Market - In the week of September 15-21, Shenzhen's new housing market recorded 969 transactions, reflecting a 10% increase compared to the previous week [2]. - The proportion of luxury homes priced above 15 million yuan increased by 2.6 percentage points, indicating a growing demand in the high-end segment [2]. - The share of improved housing transactions in the 5 million to 8 million yuan range rose by 3 percentage points compared to August, showcasing a strong release of demand for upgraded living conditions [2][5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market recorded 1,408 transactions, maintaining a high level for the year, with Longgang District leading in volume [4]. - The overall listing prices remained stable, with some areas experiencing slight increases, particularly in regions like Luohu and Nanshan [4]. - The high transaction volume in the second-hand market is facilitating a "sell old" strategy, allowing homeowners to liquidate their current properties and reinvest in new homes, thus creating a positive cycle between second-hand and new housing markets [5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a noticeable increase in inquiries and visits from potential buyers seeking improved housing options, indicating a shift in consumer behavior post-policy implementation [3]. - Experts believe that the new policy has effectively stimulated the market, and as weather conditions improve, demand for school district and marriage-related housing will further support market stability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in Shenzhen's real estate market have significantly stimulated housing demand, leading to increased transactions in both new and second-hand homes, particularly in the Luo Hu district, which has seen the most substantial impact from the new regulations [3][8][12]. Summary by Sections Market Activity Post-Policy - In the week following the new policy (September 8-14, 2025), Shenzhen recorded 589 new residential transactions, a 17% increase from the previous week, while second-hand homes saw 1,554 transactions, up 15.4% [3][8]. - Luo Hu district, which had the most significant changes in purchase restrictions, experienced a 29% increase in viewings and over 25% in signed contracts during September 6-14 [5][8]. Changes in Buyer Demographics - The policy has lowered purchase barriers across most of Shenzhen, allowing non-residents to buy homes in several districts, leading to an influx of new buyers, including those from other cities and regions [5][6]. - A notable increase in inquiries and purchases from clients in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan has been observed, with many seeking properties for investment or retirement [6][12]. Local Buyer Sentiment - Local buyers have shown increased confidence and quicker decision-making in their purchasing processes, with many transactions occurring on the same day as property viewings [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted positively, with many buyers now viewing Shenzhen properties as stable investments [5][6]. Performance of Luo Hu District - Luo Hu has emerged as the "biggest winner" from the new policy, with a significant increase in both new and second-hand home transactions due to its favorable location and quality amenities [8][9]. - The district's new home supply is limited, leading to a rapid turnover of existing properties, with some agents reporting a doubling of transaction volumes post-policy [8][9]. Developer Strategies and Market Outlook - Developers are actively preparing to launch new projects, taking advantage of the current market momentum, with several new residential projects expected to hit the market by the end of September [10][11]. - The policy is anticipated to create a favorable environment for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales season, with expectations of increased activity in both core and non-core areas of the market [12].

Core Insights - The recent policy changes in Shenzhen have significantly activated various housing demands, leading to increased transactions in both new and second-hand housing markets [1][4][8] - The most notable impact has been observed in the Luohu district, which has seen a substantial increase in buyer activity following the relaxation of purchase restrictions [2][4][5] Market Performance - In the week of September 8-14, 2025, Shenzhen recorded 589 new residential units sold, a month-on-month increase of approximately 17%, while second-hand homes saw 1,554 transactions, up 15.4% [1][4] - The Luohu district experienced a remarkable surge, with viewing and signing volumes increasing by 29% and over 25% respectively during September 6-14 [4][5] Buyer Demographics - The new policy has lowered purchase thresholds across most areas in Shenzhen, attracting a significant number of external buyers, including those from Chengdu and Hong Kong, who are now eligible to purchase homes [2][3] - External buyers now account for approximately 10% to 15% of transactions in certain projects, indicating a growing interest from outside the region [2] Local Buyer Sentiment - Local buyers have shown increased confidence and quicker decision-making processes, with many opting for immediate purchases rather than prolonged consideration [3][5] - The market has seen a notable increase in first-time buyers and those looking for investment opportunities, particularly in areas with strong educational resources [5][6] Developer Activity - Developers are actively preparing to launch new projects, taking advantage of the favorable market conditions created by the new policies [7] - Upcoming projects include over 390 new residential units in the Futian and Nanshan districts, with expectations of strong sales performance without the need for heavy promotional activities [7][8] Market Outlook - The new policy is expected to stimulate the market further, particularly during the traditional peak sales season of September and October, with a focus on inventory reduction in non-core areas and stabilizing expectations in core regions [8]

Core Points - Shenzhen has announced a significant new policy for the housing market, allowing residents to purchase an unlimited number of homes in several districts starting from September 6, 2025 [1][2] - The policy includes provisions for using housing provident fund for down payments and introduces new withdrawal scenarios for the fund [6][7] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new policy allows eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of homes in designated districts, while non-residents with less than one year of social insurance or tax payment in Shenzhen can buy up to two homes [2][5] - Single adults will be subject to the same housing purchase restrictions as families [3] - The policy also allows enterprises to purchase homes for employee housing needs without qualification checks in most areas [5] Group 2: Housing Loan Interest Rates - Banks will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in their interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan terms [4] Group 3: Provident Fund Withdrawal Changes - New provisions will allow employees to withdraw provident fund for down payments on first and second homes, with full withdrawal allowed for the first home and 60% for the second [7] - Additional scenarios for fund withdrawal include payment of housing taxes, repayment of loans for homes purchased outside Shenzhen, and compensation for increased housing area during relocation [10][11][12] - The policy aims to enhance flexibility in fund contributions, allowing employees to choose their contribution rates up to 12% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant policy shift aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting healthy development, marking a new phase of "clear operation" [1] Market Recovery Signs - Data from the first nine months of 2025 shows a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline of national commercial housing sales area, decreasing from 13% in 2024 to around 4% [2] - First-tier cities have seen new home prices increase for two consecutive months, while second-tier cities experienced their first month-on-month price growth since June 2023 [2] - The land market is showing increased activity, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in land acquisition fees, indicating a gradual recovery of market confidence [2] Policy Measures - The recent real estate policy adjustments are characterized as a "combination punch," focusing on "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" to activate market potential [2] - "Four cancellations" include the removal of purchase, sale, and price restrictions, greatly enhancing market purchasing power [4] - "Four reductions" involve lowering down payment ratios, reducing existing mortgage rates, guiding new mortgage rates down, and alleviating home purchase tax burdens, directly lowering home buying costs [4] - "Two increases" focus on increasing the supply of affordable housing and providing necessary financial support to real estate companies, ensuring basic housing needs are met while allowing market entities to survive and develop [4] Special Debt Policy - The special debt policy for 2025 amounts to 4.4 trillion yuan, with a significant portion allocated for land storage and acquisition of existing commercial housing, addressing the current inventory backlog [7] - The central bank has increased the support ratio for affordable housing re-loans to 100%, further reducing acquisition costs and accelerating inventory reduction [7] White List Mechanism - The "white list" special loan mechanism has been enhanced, with over 5.6 trillion yuan in loans approved by September 2025, significantly improving the actual loan disbursement rate [9] - This mechanism focuses on supporting the extension of existing credit for real estate companies and financing new projects, particularly prioritizing "guaranteed delivery" projects, stabilizing market expectations and protecting buyers' rights [9] Urban Village Renovation - Urban village and dilapidated housing renovations have been elevated to a critical level, becoming a key driver for releasing housing demand [9] - The renovation scope has expanded from 35 major cities to 300 prefecture-level cities, with an additional one million monetary settlement quotas expected to stimulate substantial housing demand [9] Demand-Side Policies - Demand-side policies have been actively adjusted, including changes to down payment ratios, promotion of "old-for-new" policies, and extension of home purchase subsidy periods, effectively lowering entry barriers for homebuyers [10] - The cancellation of ordinary residential standards has significantly reduced tax burdens for homeowners, exemplified by a potential tax saving of 700,000 yuan for a 10 million yuan second-hand home in Beijing [10] New Development Model - The policy adjustments signal a transition in the real estate market from "high leverage" to "high quality" development, integrating quality, safety, green, and smart elements into housing construction [11] - Local governments are promoting demonstration projects and new construction techniques, aiming to establish a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [11] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and potentially rebound in the second half of 2025, with Fitch Ratings predicting a reduction in the annual sales area decline to below 5% [13] - The liquidity of real estate companies is anticipated to improve, with state-owned enterprises likely to benefit first [13] - Despite challenges such as high inventory and mismatched supply and demand, the ongoing policy efforts are expected to drive industry transformation and sustainable development [13]

Group 1 - The "Six Measures" policy in Shanghai aims to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including changes to housing purchase limits, housing provident fund, personal housing loans, and property tax [2] - Following the implementation of the "Six Measures," two real estate projects in Shanghai sold out immediately, indicating a strong market response [2] - The "Jinmao Tangqian" project in Baoshan District launched 160 units at an average price of 53,900 yuan per square meter, achieving a subscription rate of 162.5% [2] - The "Poly Haishangyin" project in Minhang District offered 168 units at an average price of 82,000 yuan per square meter, with a subscription rate exceeding 170% [2] Group 2 - The new policy allows unlimited purchases for eligible families in areas outside the outer ring, effectively releasing purchasing power [2] - A customer at the "Zhaoshang Shidai Chaopai" project purchased two units on the first day of the policy, reflecting increased buyer confidence [3] - Real estate agencies reported a rise in transaction activity, with a 10% increase in overall signing volume following the policy announcement [3] - Shanghai Lianjia noted a 17% increase in second-hand property browsing and a 14% increase in consultation volume, indicating heightened market interest [3] - Pacific Housing reported a 166% increase in new listings and a 40% increase in new customer inquiries on the first day of the policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policy issued by six departments in Shanghai aims to optimize and adjust commercial loan interest rates, eliminating the distinction between first and second home loans, which is expected to positively impact housing market transactions and consumer demand in Shanghai [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy proposes to adjust commercial loan interest rates without differentiating between first and second homes [1] - The housing provident fund loans will also be adjusted, with the maximum loan amount increasing by 15% based on purchasing conditions [1] Group 2: Market Impact - Industry experts believe that the implementation of these policies will accelerate the pace of real estate transactions and stimulate housing consumption demand in Shanghai [1]

Group 1 - Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, has released new evidence of war crimes committed by the Japanese Army's Unit 731, including 3,010 pages of documents, 194 minutes of footage, and various photographs and postcards, highlighting the historical significance of these materials [1] - The newly disclosed materials include personnel records, daily life documentation, pathological dissections, and operational manuals from various Japanese military medical institutions involved in biological warfare during the invasion of China [1] Group 2 - Henan Province will distribute cultural and tourism consumption vouchers to nationwide tourists from August 16 to September 10, 2025, with various discount tiers aimed at boosting tourism [1] - The vouchers will be available through major platforms such as Ctrip, Meituan, and Douyin, applicable to A-level scenic spots, tourism performances, and quality accommodations within Henan [1] Group 3 - In Hebei Province, a situation arose where a scenic area was criticized for publicly assessing sanitation workers, leading to an internal investigation and subsequent changes in evaluation methods to prevent future incidents [2] - The incident involved a monthly internal assessment of sanitation staff, which was misinterpreted by media as inappropriate public scrutiny [2] Group 4 - In Yunnan Province, the first clear images of a leopard cat were captured, indicating the area's rich biodiversity, which now includes five top cat species, confirming the ecological integrity of the region [3] - The presence of various rare species, including the snow leopard and the golden cat, reflects the well-preserved habitats and complete food chain structure in the area [3] Group 5 - The Shanxi Provincial Archaeological Research Institute has published findings from the excavation of a mural tomb dating back to the Jin Dynasty, which showcases the cultural exchange between the Song, Liao, and Jin dynasties [4] - The tomb features a unique octagonal structure with brick carvings and painted murals, indicating significant historical and cultural value [4] Group 6 - In Guangdong Province, customs officials in Shenzhen seized 1,678.1 grams of ecstasy disguised as animal food, highlighting ongoing efforts to combat drug smuggling [5] - The discovery was made during routine inspections, leading to further investigation by customs authorities [5] Group 7 - In Sichuan Province, false reports of a liquefied gas truck explosion led to police investigations into the source of the misinformation, emphasizing the impact of social media on public safety perceptions [6] - The police confirmed that no such incident occurred, and actions are being taken against the individual responsible for spreading the rumor [6] Group 8 - Hainan Province has announced new real estate policies aimed at supporting families with multiple children, including the removal of distinctions between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties [6] - The policies also include tax incentives for families selling and repurchasing homes within a year, aimed at improving housing conditions [6]