石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-25 成本端弱势运行，市场震荡筑底 市场分析 1、11月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3060元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨25元/吨，涨幅 0.82%；持仓161041手，环比下跌4997手，成交226825手，环比上涨6569手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3520元/吨；华南，3060—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 原油端震荡下跌，沥青成本端支撑偏弱，但在价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号开始出现。现货方面，昨日西北、 华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。具体来看，在炼厂开工 率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不 过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已 有所缓解，但底部反弹仍需要更多的刺激因素。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供 ...

按照炼化新材料公司相关要求，该公司利用大检修契机，同步实施石蜡产品质量提升技术改造。装置开 工后，技术人员通过调整工艺条件，强化工艺管理，探索出最佳生产参数，10月中旬成功封罐，产出符 合欧标要求的56#石蜡产品并销售。截至目前，该公司已销售56#石蜡1773吨、58#石蜡993吨，正向四季 度产量不少于1万吨的目标冲刺。 中化新网讯 近日，中国石油抚顺石化石油一厂成功产出符合欧洲RAL-GZ041检测要求的石蜡产品，该 产品正式登陆欧洲市场，标志着抚顺石化在国际竞争中又迈出坚实一步。 ...

Group 1 - In the first eight months of 2025, the crude oil production in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region reached 20.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 30.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 8.6 percentage points higher than that of 2024, but 32.0 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The crude oil production in August 2025 alone was 2.7 thousand tons, representing a decline of 32.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate 12.7 percentage points lower than that of 2024 and 35.3 percentage points lower than the national average [2] - The crude oil production from Guangxi accounted for approximately 0.1% of the national total production of 14,485.8 thousand tons in the first eight months and 1,825.6 thousand tons in August [1][2] Group 2 - The data pertains to large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [6]

新华财经北京11月25日电（薛尚文）中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，11月24日，中国汽、柴油批发价格均 下跌。全国92#汽油平均批发价格为7489元／吨，较11月21日下跌10元／吨；柴油（含低凝点）平均批 发价格为6655元／吨，较11月21日下跌16元／吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 从市场整体情况来看，11月24日国内成品油零售价迎来下调，消息面利空主导市场。下游业者观望情绪 浓郁，市场购销氛围清淡。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 分区域来看，四川、海南、湖北汽油批发价格上涨，北京、福建、辽宁、陕西、广西、天津、江西、安 徽、山东、江苏汽油批发价格下跌；黑龙江、青海、新疆、海南柴油批发价格上涨，重庆、天津、北 京、福建、河南、贵州、河北、陕西、辽宁、广西柴油批发价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格小幅下 跌，柴油价格下跌。 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but funding pressure is expected to improve marginally due to a rebound in private equity registrations and public fund launches, with private fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [2][3] - The peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has shown a marginal decline, indicating a reduction in funding supply pressure [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In the construction industry, the supply and demand remain weak, with new home transactions showing a decline while second-hand home transactions have slightly increased [2] - The industrial sector shows strong freight volume performance, but production rates are mixed, with some sectors like coking and independent refineries seeing an increase, while the chemical and automotive sectors remain weak [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - In the global gas turbine market, new orders increased by 95% year-on-year to 24GW in Q3 2025, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [5] - The high demand for gas turbines is expected to boost exports for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Yingliu and Haomai Technology positioned to benefit [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support debt resolution and other initiatives [6][7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as a key observation point for policy reserves and future deployments [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Kangnuo Ya-B (2162 HK) is highlighted for its potential in the global autoimmune pipeline, with a market cap increase of over 75% recently, and promising early clinical data for its CM512 product [9] - Black Sesame Intelligence (2533 HK) is recognized for its advancements in the robotics sector with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, indicating strong growth potential [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains the dominant factor affecting oil prices. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will impact the supply of oil and gas, and the market is closely watching the further development of the negotiations. The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation, with olefins being relatively weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Various Products - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. If the geopolitical support gradually weakens, the oil price is expected to return to a weaker pattern [4]. - **Asphalt**: The increase in rebar prices drives up the asphalt futures price on the sentiment side. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the absolute price is overvalued [4][9]. - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia-Ukraine agreement drives the fuel oil price down [4]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weakness of crude oil. Although it is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, it is still affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [4][11]. - **Methanol**: The overseas disturbance is confirmed, and methanol is expected to be strong in the short term. The expected reduction in imports in December and the restart of downstream备货 contribute to the price increase [3][4]. - **Urea**: The centralized procurement has paused, and the futures price has declined slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply-demand pattern has improved, and some short positions have been closed. However, the rebound height is limited due to the long-term supply pressure [4][21]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price has changed from strong to adjustment. The supply pressure is expected to be alleviated by the maintenance of some devices [4][13]. - **PTA**: The basis has emerged from the downturn, and the profit has been slightly repaired. The supply-demand pattern has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased [4][14]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it follows the upstream passively [4][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost support has increased, and the price has rebounded slightly [4][26]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and the PL fluctuates [4][35]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and the change in maintenance needs to be monitored [4][34]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has increased slightly, and the price fluctuates [4][33]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and it mainly fluctuates [4][18]. - **PVC**: The high inventory suppresses the price, and it may be anchored to production cuts [4][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate [4][37]. 3.2 Data Monitoring of Various Products - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PTA have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for the future price relationship of different periods [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX also show different trends, which can help analyze the market's current supply - demand relationship and price rationality [40]. - **Inter - Product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc. have changed, which can reflect the relative price relationship and market structure between different products [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of the commodity index show different trends. The comprehensive index has increased slightly, while the energy index has declined [281][282].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market declined with a weakening basis and 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices decreased, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The propane - civil gas spread narrowed. Warehouse receipts decreased. The overseas paper - based prices dropped, but the spread strengthened. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads changed slightly. The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed. Profits of Shandong PDH to propylene and alkylation units improved slightly, while MTBE production profits fluctuated and export profits remained good. There was an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, and inventory accumulation at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate decreased, and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, civil demand is increasing, but there are expected to be many arrivals in December. The Middle East supply is tight, and the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see before the CP official price announcement. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, prices were 4305 (-10) in East China, 4400 (+60) in Shandong, and 4405 (+5) in South China. The price of ether - after carbon four was 4400 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 6 (+23), and the 01 - 02 spread was 98 (-10). FEI was 501.5 (+1.5) and CP was 489.5 (+7.5) dollars/ton [1] 2. Weekly Views - The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices fell. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas spread narrowed. There were 4561 warehouse receipts (-54). Overseas paper - based prices dropped, and the spread strengthened. The gas - oil ratio between North Asia and North America changed little. The PG - CP spread was 126 (-2), and the PG - FEI spread was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North America, and AFEI offshore discounts were flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to propylene improved slightly, the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor, and the MTBE production profit fluctuated with good export profits. Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, and inventory accumulated at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1]

Supply and Demand - As of November 20, the production of pure benzene was 446,700 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons, with an operating rate of 76.67%, down by 1.31% [2] - As of November 24, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates of downstream products varied, with styrene at 68.95% (down 0.3%), phenol at 79.00% (up 11.4%), caprolactam at 88.24% (up 2.2%), and aniline at 75.68% (down 4.5%) [2] Market Outlook - Recent additions of production capacity and the restart of facilities have kept the overall supply of pure benzene loose, despite some reductions in production to maintain prices for loss-making products [3] - The significant increase in port inventory and continued high arrival volumes suggest a generally loose supply-demand expectation [3] - Short-term price adjustments for pure benzene may be influenced by oil price fluctuations, with attention on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No core view is presented in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 10 on 11/24, with a daily change of -51 and a weekly change of 12 [4][12]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 40 on 11/24, with a daily change of -51 and a weekly change of -78 [4][12]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 20 on 11/24, with a daily change of -51 and a weekly change of -28 [4][12]. - The 12 - 01 spread was -10 on 11/24, with a daily change of -14 and a weekly change of -11 [4][12]. - The 12 - 03 spread was -32 on 11/24, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 16 [4][12]. - The 01 - 02 spread was -2 on 11/24, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 18 [4][12]. 3.2 BU Main Contract (01) - The price of the BU main contract (01) was 3060 on 11/24, with a daily change of 51 and a weekly change of 28 [4][12]. - The trading volume was 348,747 on 11/24, with a daily change of 40,511 and a weekly change of 129,616 [4][12]. - The open interest was 339,735 on 11/24, with a daily change of 11,773 and a weekly change of -9,909 [4][12]. - The contract multiplier was 12,420 on 11/24, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.3 Crude Oil and Spot Prices - Brent crude oil was at $62.6 on 11/24, with a daily change of -$0.8 and a weekly change of -$1.6 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo was 3020 on 11/24, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [4][12]. - The price of Hongrun was 2990 on 11/24, with no daily change and a weekly change of 40 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3100 on 11/24, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [4][12]. - The price of Foshan Warehouse was 3080 on 11/24, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.4 Asphalt Marrow Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit was 169 on 11/24, with a daily change of 41 and a weekly change of 77 [4][12].