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室 坑车工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 关注军贸及消耗类武器, 配置周期 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 47 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 ● 跌 0.18%, 沪深 300 下跌 1.08%, 创业板指下跌 3.01%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参 ...

Market Overview - On November 17, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to close at 3972.03 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw slight declines of 0.11% and 0.2% respectively. The total trading volume for both markets reached 1.91 trillion yuan [1]. AI Sector - The AI sector received significant attention with the launch of Alibaba's Qianwen App, which aims to compete directly with ChatGPT in the AI to C market. This app is expected to integrate various life scenarios, enhancing its utility [6]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged by 2.2%, driven by strong performance in AI applications and computing power sectors. Notable stocks in this sector included Dongfang Guoxin and BlueFocus, which rose over 10% [3][4]. Defense Industry - The defense and military sector saw a robust performance, with the National Defense and Military Industry ETF (512810) rising by 1.33%. Analysts expect that the "14th Five-Year Plan" related orders will gradually materialize, coupled with military trade catalysts, potentially leading to an upward trend in this sector [3][11]. - The ETF experienced significant trading activity, with a total volume of 997.4 million yuan, reflecting strong buying interest [9]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector showed resilience, with the Chemical ETF (516020) closing up by 1.08%. The sector is benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the lithium battery supply chain and refrigerant prices, which are expected to rise due to regulatory changes [12][14]. - Key stocks in the chemical sector, such as Salt Lake Shares and Multi-Fluorine, saw substantial gains, with increases exceeding 6% [12]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors with clear growth signals, such as AI applications and defense industries. The emphasis is on capturing opportunities in the AI narrative and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the market [3][11]. - The chemical sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, with a favorable valuation environment and expected improvements in overall supply-demand conditions [14][15].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 168.44 billion yuan on November 17, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 75.05 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks a net outflow of 83.5 billion yuan [2] - Among the 17 industries tracked, 10 industries saw a net inflow of main funds, with the computer industry leading at 43.31 billion yuan, followed by the national defense and military industry at 26.57 billion yuan [2] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry faced the largest net outflow of 62.16 billion yuan, while the electronic industry had a net outflow of 53.12 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In terms of individual stocks, 94 stocks had a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan, with 20 stocks exceeding 3 billion yuan in net inflow [3] - The stock of Zhongdian Xindong, involved in smart city projects, saw a net inflow of 8.63 billion yuan, marking a significant breakthrough in the urban rail transit sector [3] - Longcheng Military Industry also attracted a net inflow of 7.9 billion yuan, benefiting from a strong opening in the military equipment sector [3] Group 3 - Conversely, 100 stocks experienced a net outflow of over 1 billion yuan, with three leading stocks seeing significant outflows: Ningde Times at 17.62 billion yuan, and both Sunshine Power and Century Huatuo exceeding 10 billion yuan [5] - Century Huatuo's stock hit a limit down, closing with a drop of 9.16% [5] - In the tail end of trading, the total net inflow was 2.96 billion yuan, with Zhongdian Xinchuan leading at 2.6 billion yuan [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry is experiencing significant activity due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with the defense military ETF (512810) showing strong performance and attracting substantial investment [1][5]. Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) opened over 2% higher and closed with a gain of 1.33%, outperforming the broader market [1]. - The ETF traded at a premium throughout the day, indicating strong buying interest, with nearly 90 million yuan invested in the previous 10 days [1]. - The ETF recorded a trading volume of 99.74 million yuan, a more than 113% increase compared to the previous period, reflecting a significant bullish sentiment [3]. Geopolitical Influence - Recent provocative statements from Japan and ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, have heightened geopolitical uncertainties, potentially increasing international military trade demand [5]. - Analysts suggest that the defense and military sector may see sustained growth due to these geopolitical factors, alongside the gradual realization of related orders in the fourth quarter [5]. Industry Outlook - The defense and military industry is expected to benefit from geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and policy support, with potential for high-end weapon exports and a revaluation of core assets [5]. - A report from CITIC Securities indicates a transformation in China's defense industry from "cyclical growth" to "comprehensive growth," driven by domestic demand, foreign trade expansion, and civilian contributions [5]. Investment Strategy - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool for accessing core assets in the defense sector, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, controlled nuclear fusion, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI [5].

Market Review - The equity market experienced a decline last week, with the STAR 50 index dropping the most at 3.85%. Other indices such as the ChiNext index fell by 3.01%, and the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08% [4][5] - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.02 basis points to 1.814%, while the 1-year yield increased from 1.405% to 1.410% [8][12] - The fund market saw a decline in equity funds by 0.71%, while secondary bond fund indices showed slight increases [15] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier presents investment opportunities in sectors such as aerospace, high-end equipment, and defense [17] - The State Council's meeting emphasized enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, suggesting potential in the consumer sector [18] - Berkshire Hathaway's initial investment in Alphabet, valued at $4.3 billion, highlights the focus on AI technology and presents opportunities in related funds [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [20] - The dividend sector is seen as valuable due to low interest rates and government support for regular dividends [21] - The technology sector is highlighted for its growth potential driven by national policy support and global trends in AI [21][22] Stable Product Allocation Strategy Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of 626.2 billion yuan indicates a tightening of the funding environment [26] - The retail sales total for October showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, while industrial output increased by 4.9% [26] - Convertible bonds are noted for their volatility risks, with recent price movements indicating a need for caution [26] Key Focus Products - Short-term bond funds are recommended, with an emphasis on adjusting yield expectations [29] - Funds such as Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A are highlighted for their stable performance [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [23]. Core Insights - The military industry is entering an upward cycle as per the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, with expectations of performance recovery in Q4 2025, driven by increased military trade and order fulfillment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the military trade landscape is evolving due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for military products, particularly in the Middle East and Asia [3]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in next-generation equipment, unmanned/anti-unmanned weapons, and information/intelligent systems, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from these trends [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.15%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index decreased by 1.53%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.18% and the CSI 300 by 1.08% [4][11]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 27th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively poor performance compared to other sectors [4]. - The report lists the top five gainers in the defense sector: Tian'ao Electronics (up 12.63%), Aerospace Development (up 8.54%), *ST Dali (up 7.1%), Aerospace Intelligence Equipment (up 5.72%), and 712 (up 4.21%) [11][12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 76.94, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.32% since January 2014 and 91.95% since January 2019 [12][13]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [12][13].

沪指11月17日下跌0.46%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有17个，涨幅居前的行业为计算机、国防军 工，涨幅分别为1.67%、1.59%。跌幅居前的行业为医药生物、银行，跌幅分别为1.73%、1.31%。非银 金融行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 | 000750 | 国海证券 | -0.89 | 0.99 | -5149.32 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002670 | 国盛证券 | -3.16 | 2.42 | -4943.23 | | 600390 | 五矿资本 | -0.84 | 0.70 | -4475.33 | | 600155 | 华创云信 | 0.52 | 2.55 | -4393.14 | | 601995 | 中金公司 | -0.88 | 0.54 | -4357.71 | | 002939 | 长城证券 | -0.38 | 0.66 | -4335.29 | | 601878 | 浙商证券 | -0.44 | 0.55 | -3897.56 | | 601059 | 信达证券 | -0.96 | 2.14 | -3824.15 | | 601099 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% on November 17, with 17 industries experiencing gains, led by the computer and defense industries, which rose by 1.67% and 1.59% respectively [1] - The pharmaceutical and banking sectors saw the largest declines, with drops of 1.73% and 1.31% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 31.953 billion yuan, with six industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The computer industry had the highest net inflow of 7.211 billion yuan, followed by the defense industry with a net inflow of 2.892 billion yuan [1] Defense Industry Performance - The defense industry rose by 1.59% with a total net capital inflow of 2.892 billion yuan, comprising 138 stocks, of which 114 increased in value and 4 hit the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks by net inflow were Changcheng Military Industry (1.015 billion yuan), Jianglong Shipbuilding (328.0 million yuan), and Aerospace Development (165.0 million yuan) [2] Defense Industry Capital Inflow - Notable stocks with significant inflows included: - Changcheng Military Industry: +10.00% with a turnover rate of 7.03% and a net inflow of 1.0146 billion yuan - Jianglong Shipbuilding: +20.01% with a turnover rate of 45.88% and a net inflow of 328.5 million yuan - Aerospace Development: +9.99% with a turnover rate of 1.35% and a net inflow of 164.8 million yuan [2] Defense Industry Capital Outflow - The stocks with the highest capital outflows included: - China Satellite: -0.79% with a net outflow of 80.2 million yuan - Gaode Infrared: -0.15% with a net outflow of 56.6 million yuan - Guangqi Technology: -0.05% with a net outflow of 43.0 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 points, down 0.46%, with a trading volume of 805.7 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.00 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 1105.058 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3105.20 points, down 0.2%, with a trading volume of 493.701 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1354.04 points, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 59.5 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1910.758 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.351 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included computer, defense, coal, real estate, education, oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and chemicals [2] - Concepts such as lithium mining, aquaculture, AI, remote work, digital taxation, synchronous reluctance motors, Kimi, and quantum technology showed active performance [2] - Weak sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, insurance, building materials, transportation, and home appliances [2] Stock Performance - A total of 2510 stocks rose, while 2521 stocks fell, with 125 stocks remaining flat and 10 stocks suspended [2] - 100 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 13 stocks hit the daily limit down [2] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16.844 billion yuan [4] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 7.505 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 experienced a net outflow of 8.35 billion yuan [4] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 4.331 billion yuan [4] - The pharmaceutical sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 6.216 billion yuan [4] Individual Stock Highlights - 94 stocks received net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zhongdian Xindong leading at 863 million yuan [8] - Ningde Times had the highest net outflow at 1.762 billion yuan [11] - Institutional investors net bought 6 stocks, with Yahua Group receiving the highest net purchase of approximately 41.692 million yuan [14]