Sales Performance Summary - In July 2025, the company sold 6.355 million commodity pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.02% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 14.30 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.86% [1] - The total sales revenue from commodity pigs was 11.639 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.41% [1] Monthly Sales Data - Cumulative sales data for the first seven months of 2025 shows a total of 44.749 million commodity pigs sold, with a cumulative revenue of 82.507 billion yuan [2] - The average price for commodity pigs in July 2025 was consistent with the previous month at 14.30 yuan per kilogram [2] Additional Sales Information - In July 2025, the company also sold 1.106 million piglets and 0.036 million breeding pigs [3] - The sales data provided is preliminary and unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with periodic report disclosures [3]

Group 1: Company Announcements - China Shipbuilding Special Gas has received supplier certification from Japan's GIGAPHOTON for its photolithography gas products, enhancing its competitiveness in the electronic specialty gas market [1] - Tiantan Biological's subsidiary Chengdu Rongsheng Pharmaceutical has completed clinical trials for its recombinant human coagulation factor VIII injection for patients under 12 years old, showing good safety and efficacy [2] - Yibai Pharmaceutical has been ordered to suspend the production and sale of its children's cough syrup due to regulatory non-compliance, with minimal impact expected on its overall revenue [3] - Muyuan Foods reported a 10.41% year-on-year decline in sales revenue for July, totaling 11.639 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 6.355 million pigs [4] - Anker Detection announced a change in its controlling shareholder to Xirui Technology, with stock resuming trading on August 6, 2025 [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Haiguang Information reported a 40.78% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.201 billion yuan, with total revenue of 5.464 billion yuan [5] - Zhongke Shuguang achieved a net profit of 731 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 29.89% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 5.854 billion yuan [7] Group 3: Shareholder Actions - Chenshin Pharmaceutical's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% through market transactions [8] - Changlian Co. announced that its shareholder Jiarong Investment intends to reduce its holdings by up to 2.96% [9] - Aored plans to have its shareholder Kongshun reduce its stake by up to 3% [10] - Chipengwei's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% [11] - Guangge Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.04% [12]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national pig price experienced a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline and a slight rebound, primarily due to an oversupply caused by concentrated weight reduction in the breeding sector, with expectations of further supply increases and weak demand in August leading to a potential decline in prices [1][2]. Price Trends - The national pig price in July showed a "brief increase - high-level decline - end-of-month brief rebound" trend, with the highest price reaching 15.49 yuan/kg on the 3rd, a 3.96% increase from the previous month's peak, and the lowest price dropping to 13.92 yuan/kg on the 29th [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: The breeding sector is expected to continue weight reduction operations in August, with an increase in supply anticipated due to the ongoing release of production capacity. Additionally, adverse weather conditions may increase the likelihood of pig diseases, further impacting supply [2][3]. - Demand Side: The demand for pigs is expected to remain weak in August due to high temperatures, which will hinder consumption, and the absence of holidays or other supportive factors [2][3]. Market Sentiment - The active weight reduction in the breeding sector, combined with summer heat suppressing weight gain, is likely to result in an average market weight of around 123 kg for pigs in August and September. After the weight reduction phase, there may be a temporary decrease in supply, providing a window for replenishment, particularly in northern regions [3]. Price Forecast - Overall, in August, with the combination of increased supply and reduced demand, along with limited support from secondary fattening, pig prices are expected to decline month-on-month, with an average price forecast of 14.23 yuan/kg, exhibiting a trend of rise-fall-rise, where the rising periods are shorter than the falling ones [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the holiday, and the demand is also affected by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather, resulting in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the LH2509 contract oscillating in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of pigs shows that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is bearish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, the main position is net short with a decrease in shorts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the pork market enters the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures price also shows an oscillatory and weak pattern. The decline in the spot price may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include a year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices. Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the off - season for pig and pork consumption after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the number of short positions is decreasing [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of hogs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for selling is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and hog prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, hog supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with relatively large demand increases, and their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies are also favorable for the medium - to - long - term hog price performance [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2509 hog futures contract opened lower, hit a low, and then rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 476 lots to 173,049 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the national average price of external ternary hogs was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, with most in a wait - and - see mode. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the continuous recovery of enterprise sales, the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses have slightly increased. On August 4, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, a decrease of 300 heads from the previous day but an increase of 500 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the sales volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for selling, and the sales progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened hogs to be released. There is still pressure on sales, and the average weight of hogs for sale fluctuates slightly [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Profit per Head**: As of July 31, the average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per head for purchasing piglets for fattening was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [13]. - **Price of 15kg Piglets**: In the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Volume**: In the week of July 31, the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [13]. - **National Hog Inventory**: At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national hog inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarter - on - quarter changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of July 31, the average weight of hogs for sale nationwide was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week (a 0.39% decrease) [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility with panic selling leading to fluctuations, particularly in the ChiNext index, which showed signs of potential support from major players like CATL and Mindray Medical [3] - The agricultural sector saw unexpected surges in pig futures prices, leaving farmers confused about the reasons behind the price increase, while some investors expressed skepticism about the sustainability of agricultural stocks [4] - The securities sector faced a critical moment as it approached the 20-day moving average after three days of decline, raising concerns about market confidence [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new energy sector, particularly CATL, showed narrow fluctuations around 208 yuan, with a notable lack of interest in job openings within the lithium battery industry, indicating a challenging environment [7] - The liquor industry, represented by Moutai, struggled with stagnant prices around 1658 yuan and high inventory levels, reflecting a cooling demand compared to previous years [8] - The medical sector experienced a sudden drop, with WuXi AppTec's stock plummeting 4.2% in a short time, raising questions about the sector's stability amid significant net outflows [8] Group 3: Investment Trends - The semiconductor sector saw a surprising 1.3% increase, defying typical technical analysis expectations, leading to confusion among analysts and investors [9] - Gold prices surged past 3376 yuan per gram, driven by increased demand amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with significant retail interest noted [10] - The media ETF experienced a strong rebound, attributed to increased engagement in gaming during the summer, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior [10] Group 4: Fund Performance - A popular military industry fund saw a 2.5% increase in a single day, but subsequent data revealed that prominent fund managers were quietly liquidating positions, raising concerns about the underlying reasons for the price movement [10]

2025年至今，生猪期现货市场供需博弈加剧，呈现"现货上下两难、期价重心震荡上移"的格局。从产能 角度来看，今年生猪供应宽松，但未出现往年的大跌行情，受养殖端缩量提价、政策调控加码等因素影 响，价格整体走势平稳，行业仍处于磨底阶段。全国生猪现货价格在13500~16500元／吨区间震荡，高 点出现在春节前，低点出现在端午节后。我的农产品网数据显示，8月初，全国生猪出栏均价为14.10元 ／千克，低价区报13.20元／千克。 今年以来，生猪期货主力合约价格波动率整体呈现下降趋势，处于较低水平。上半年期货市场整体 呈"弱预期"走势，市场预期后市供应压力较大，对猪价持悲观预期，年初主力合约价格最低跌至12600 元／吨附近。但在现货市场价格下跌幅度有限的情况下，受期现回归驱动，期货近月合约价格出现向上 修复的补涨行情，彼时正向套利策略普遍表现较好。随后，受4月上旬贸易摩擦、7月生猪行业"反内 卷"政策预期等因素影响，生猪期货价格进入震荡反弹阶段，重心曲折上行。7月23日，主力合约最高涨 至15150元／吨。不过，目前仍处于季节性需求淡季，现货价格大幅贴水期货价格，主力合约价格冲高 回落，7月底震荡回调。临近交割月， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a long-term revaluation opportunity for the pig industry, indicating that while pig prices are experiencing fluctuations, there is still downward pressure. The industry is expected to transition towards a self-regulatory and stable phase, benefiting leading companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][14]. - The poultry sector is currently facing low prices, but there are signs of marginal improvement in the cycle, with recommendations for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. - The animal health sector is anticipated to see performance recovery and investment opportunities in pet medical services, with a focus on companies like Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua [6][34]. - The planting sector is experiencing a decline in the pig-to-grain price ratio, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][37]. - The feed sector is witnessing price fluctuations, with recommendations for Haida Group and attention to He Feng Stock [7][42]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength, and the report recommends companies in the pet food sector such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average price of pigs is currently around 14.08 yuan/kg, with fluctuations noted [14]. - The number of breeding sows has increased slightly, indicating a stable supply [14]. - Key recommendations include Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture, with a suggestion to pay attention to Dekang Agriculture [4][14]. Poultry Industry - The price of white feather chicken is low, with a focus on potential marginal improvements in the cycle [5][23]. - The report notes a significant update in the breeding stock, with a mix of imported and self-bred varieties [5][24]. - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. Animal Health - The report anticipates continued recovery in animal health companies' performance, supported by stable profits in the pig farming sector [6][34]. - The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use marks a significant technological advancement [6][34]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua, with additional attention to Huisheng Biological and Jinhai Biological [6][34]. Planting Sector - The pig-to-grain price ratio has decreased, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds [7][37]. - Recommendations include Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [7][37]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with specific prices noted for different types of feed [7][42]. - The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending Haida Group and monitoring He Feng Stock [7][42]. Pet Industry - The pet market is growing, with a significant increase in consumption and brand development [7][51]. - Recommendations include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Stock, and Peidi Stock in the pet food sector, as well as Ruipuhua in the pet medical sector [7][51].

资金流向数据显示，牧原股份当日主力资金净流入6971.67万元，近五日主力资金累计净流出8.07亿元。 风险提示：生猪价格波动风险、疫病风险、政策风险等。 来源:金融界 牧原股份最新股价报45.91元，较前一交易日上涨0.22%。盘中最高触及46.17元，最低下探45.64元，全 天成交金额达10.42亿元。 牧原股份主营业务为生猪养殖与销售，主要产品包括商品猪、种猪、仔猪等。公司采用"全自养、全链 条、智能化"的经营模式，构建了集饲料加工、生猪育种、生猪养殖、屠宰加工为一体的完整生猪产业 链。 消息面上，牧原股份股东牧原集团将其持有的8266万股股份办理质押展期，展期后到期日为2027年8月1 日。此外，公司近日获得证监会批复，同意向专业投资者公开发行面值总额不超过50亿元的公司债券。 ...

Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].