Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with healthy market conditions compared to the "crazy bull" of 2015, and any signs of overheating will prompt quick policy adjustments [2][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 3 trillion RMB of new domestic capital will flow into the stock market in 2026, including approximately 2 trillion from individual investors and over 1 trillion from institutional funds [2][5] - The net buying of southbound funds is expected to reach 200 billion USD (approximately 1.4 trillion RMB) in 2026, setting a new historical high [2][5] Group 2 - Recent market signals indicate a cooling trend, with the trading volume dropping below 3 trillion RMB after reaching 3.94 trillion RMB on January 14 [3][4] - The increase in financing margin ratios by exchanges is seen as a measure to cool the margin trading market, while some previously popular sectors are showing signs of risk [4] - Investor sentiment indicators for individual investors are not showing excessive confidence compared to previous high-confidence periods, suggesting a more controlled risk environment [4][5] Group 3 - The driving force behind the market's rise is shifting from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, with expected profit growth rates accelerating from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [5][7] - The total amount of dividends and buybacks is projected to approach 570 billion USD (approximately 4 trillion RMB), while IPO fundraising is expected to exceed 100 billion USD (approximately 700 billion RMB), marking an 80% year-on-year increase [5][6] - There is a notable increase in interest from overseas investors in the Chinese market, although large-scale buying has not yet materialized [5][6] Group 4 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated due to base effects [7][8] - The export sector is expected to remain a core driver of economic growth, with a projected annual growth rate of 5% to 6% in export volume over the next few years [2][7] - Consumer spending is showing structural differentiation, with service consumption expected to outpace goods consumption, while government spending is anticipated to provide support as debt pressures ease [7][8]

2026.01. 20 "因此，慢牛行情继续开展的概率较高。"刘劲津在1月20日的媒体会上称，高盛维持对A股将继续演 绎"慢牛"行情的预判。 该机构的模型指标显示出，近期，个人和机构投资者的估值偏好提升，但投资者情绪并未过热。资金 层面，高盛预测，2026年将有超过人民币3万亿元的国内新增资本流入股市，其中包含约2万亿的个 人投资者配置、逾1万亿机构资金。同时，2026年南向资金净买盘有望达到2000亿美元（约合人民 币1.4万亿元），再创历史新高。 宏观方面，高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉预计，2026年出口将继续保持强劲，成为拉动经济增长的核 心动力，预测未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至6%。 外资尚未大规模买入 今年开年，A股"开门红"，沪指在突破4000点之后，快速站上4100点，火热行情在近期继续升温，1 月14日，两市成交额达到3.94万亿元。不过，1月19日两市日成交额缩量至3万亿以下。 本文字数：2164，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 封图 | AI生成 2026年开年以来，A股行情拾级而上，沪指连续突破重要整数关口，但在近期，两融市场迎来降温 信号，A股缩量震荡，前期的热门概念股 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着近期中国股票市场一路高歌猛进，投资者正关注市场情绪及未来走向。高盛认 为，市场情绪并未过热，维持对A股将继续演绎"慢牛"行情的预判，公司的盈利将成为市场上涨的重要 驱动力。 高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津在媒体会上称认为，与2015年的"疯牛"相比，当前市场行情较为健康， 如果出现过热迹象，政策也会快速做出调节。 高盛的模型指标显示，近期，个人和机构投资者的估值偏好提升，但投资者情绪并未过热。"因此，慢 牛行情继续开展的概率较高。"刘劲津表示。 与此同时，资金流入成为一个重要的观察点。高盛预测，2026年将有超过人民币3万亿元的国内新增资 本流入股市，其中包含约2万亿的个人投资者配置、逾1万亿机构资金。同时，2026年南向资金净买盘有 望达到2000亿美元(约合人民币1.4万亿元)，再创历史新高。 除了资金层面的大量流入，强劲的出口市场也为经济增长提供了支撑。高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉表 示，到目前为止，中国出口商已成功将其出口目的地从美国分散至其他地区，并保持了整体出口增长。 关于中国出口的韧性，闪辉认为来自三方面的因素：首先，全球经济稳步增长将带动需求上升；其次， 中国对新兴市场经济体 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through significant psychological barriers, although recent signals indicate a cooling in the margin trading market and a decline in previously popular concept stocks [1][2] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, predicting a continuation of a "slow bull" market, contrasting it with the "crazy bull" market of 2015, citing healthier market conditions and quick policy adjustments if overheating occurs [1][3] Investor Sentiment and Capital Inflow - Goldman Sachs' model indicates that both individual and institutional investors have increased their valuation preferences, but overall investor sentiment has not reached overheating levels [3][4] - The firm forecasts over 3 trillion RMB in new domestic capital inflows into the stock market in 2026, including approximately 2 trillion from individual investors and over 1 trillion from institutional investors [1][4] Economic Growth and Exports - Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that exports will remain a core driver of economic growth in 2026, with an expected annual growth rate of 5% to 6% for the next few years [1][7] - The GDP for 2025 is estimated at 140 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, while 2026 is projected to see a GDP growth rate of 4.8%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [7][8] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - The market's upward momentum is expected to shift from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, with corporate profit growth projected to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [4][8] - Goldman Sachs highlights a positive outlook for AI-related sectors and has upgraded hardware stocks to a high allocation, while favoring service sectors in consumer areas and focusing on materials in cyclical sectors [4][6] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - Despite a strong start to the year, foreign capital has not yet entered the market on a large scale, although interest from overseas investors has increased [4][5] - The firm anticipates that global bullish investors may narrow their underweight positions in Chinese stocks, potentially leading to an additional 10 billion RMB in buying [5]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a "Fed credibility trade" and suggests that the current market does not feel like a volatility 5x market, indicating a cautious outlook on volatility levels [1]. Core Insights - The current market volatility is perceived as unusually low, reminiscent of the lowest levels seen during Trump's first term, with significant implications for trading strategies [1]. - There is a notable demand for cyclical assets, evidenced by large short positions in macro products and software, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. - The report highlights that the total gamma estimates for SPX are showing a certain counter-cyclicality within the first 3% of spot price fluctuations, suggesting potential trading opportunities [5]. - The technology sector continues to face pressure, with a reported decline of -2.3 standard deviations, marking it as one of the most impacted sectors [12]. - Small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive trading days, a trend not seen since 2008, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Prime Book - The total short positions in the U.S. fundamentals have been at the 100th percentile over the past 1, 3, and 5-year periods, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [12]. - Macro products are facing significant shorting, with investors looking to profit from increased market differentiation ahead of earnings season [12]. 2. Shares - The report notes a busy week with various meetings and earnings reports, highlighting the "Trump positive" trades being closed out [14]. 3. Futures - CTA positions remain heavily long, with increasing risks of liquidation as the market stagnates, despite no recent investor inquiries about these stocks [15]. 4. Derivatives - The report discusses the rare occurrence of both stock and fixed income volatility being low simultaneously, creating opportunities for high-leverage, low-premium stocks and fixed income double-digit bonds [17]. 5. Emerging Markets - A survey of over 400 fund managers shows a strong preference for returns from emerging markets, with significant investments in options indicating bullish sentiment [19]. 6. ETFs - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as popular trading targets, with IWC (micro-cap ETF) showing consistent daily gains this year [26]. 7. Baskets - The report suggests expanding investment scope, recommending long positions in companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity [22]. 8. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in stocks and mixed-rate bonds, noting low implied prices that could yield convexity returns under reasonable strike prices [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the surprising efficiency of the U.S. economy in producing goods and services, providing a buffer for policymakers while raising questions about the underlying drivers of this productivity surge [2][4]. - Morgan Stanley reported a significant increase in non-farm productivity, with an annualized growth rate of 4.9% in Q3, marking a substantial rise from the average of 1.9% over the previous four quarters [2]. - The report suggests that the current productivity increase is largely cyclical, and the true drivers behind this acceleration remain a mystery [2]. Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. has been characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," with net job additions nearly at zero over the past five months, averaging only 44,000 new jobs per month, the lowest since 2020 [5]. - Despite reduced hiring, productivity has surged, supported by wealthier households maintaining demand, with consumer spending unexpectedly rising by 3.5% in Q3, primarily driven by service consumption [5]. - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, with high-income households (earning over $150,000) accounting for 43% of new car purchases, up from 30% five years ago, while lower-income households (earning under $75,000) saw their share drop from 35% to 25% [5]. Group 3 - The rise of artificial intelligence is often seen as a potential factor for productivity improvement, but the report emphasizes cyclical factors instead, indicating that companies are not widely replacing human labor with AI but are correcting previous overhiring [6]. - The surge in productivity has direct implications for monetary policy, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with revised predictions pushing the expected rate cuts to June and September [6]. - The report concludes that as long as the unemployment rate remains stable, the Federal Reserve can accept a slowdown in job growth [6].

1月19日，#金银大涨后铜条悄悄火了#冲上热搜。最近，贵金属市场热潮涌动，特别是黄 金和白银价格一路走高，成为大众追捧的投资焦点。而在这股热潮之下，又一种金属悄 悄"出圈"——投资铜条。 相关话题下，有网友说："一开始以为是段子，结果发现是真的"。还有网友开玩笑说："再 也不敢叫破铜烂铁了"。 一位水贝商家说，这两天问的人比较多，真正下单的人很少。大家普遍比较关心的是将来的 回收问题。 "这还是遍地黄金的水贝吗？"目前只有少数商家推出了投资铜条，除了网友，就连市场里 的商家都觉得离谱。 不过杭州市场，也有投资客开始关注投资铜条。 杭州老福林打金店老板老林说，前天有客人在买银条时候讲到最近铜在涨价，问店里有没有 投资铜条卖。"在大众认知里铜很廉价，买得少没有多少增值，买得多又没地方放，以后回 收也是个问题。" 据悉，深圳水贝是国内最大的黄金珠宝集散地，就在这个月，金座、银座、特力等市场的不 少商家试探性地推出了纯铜999.9的投资铜条，规格有500克和1000克，不过以1000克居 多，一根1000克的投资铜条的报价从180元至280元。 不过大部分商家没有铜条现货，需要预订，预订时间3至7天不等。 据橙柿互动 ...

凤凰网科技讯 1月19日，据CBS报道，GLP-1类减肥药物在美国普及，将对社会产生积极影响。美国投 行杰富瑞公司发布研究报告指出，乘客变轻将直接减轻飞机重量，从而减少燃油消耗成本。预测市场平 台Polymarket也称司美格鲁肽等减肥药今年有望为美国航空公司节省超5亿美元燃油成本。特斯拉CEO 埃隆·马斯克对此评论"Wow "。 杰富瑞预估，这相当于美国四大航司——美国航空、达美航空、西南航空和美联航，每年可节省5.8亿 美元燃油费。这四家航司今年预计燃油总支出为386亿美元。 分析显示，若司美格鲁肽等减肥药能使社会平均体重下降10%，那么航空乘客总体重将减少约2%。据 此估算，航空公司可节省约1.5%的燃油成本，同时每股收益有望提升4%。 报告以波音737 Max 8机型为例进行了具体测算：该机型空重约44.9吨，最大载油约20.9吨。假设搭载 178名乘客，平均体重约81.6公斤，再加上约1.8吨货物，总起飞重量约82.2吨。若乘客平均体重因药物 下降10%至约73.4公斤，总重则将降至约80.8吨。 杰富瑞报告分析称，燃油成本与飞机总重量直接相关，包括乘客、行李及货物。飞机越重，耗油越 多。"航空公司 ...

高盛提示，欧盟内部可能呼吁启动反胁迫工具。德银报告更警示欧洲抛售持有的八万亿美元资产的风险。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关 税，数月后还将增至25%，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议，引发了市场对贸易战的担忧。 受此影响，19日全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金、美债等避险资产上涨，现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司关口，刷新历 史高点，现货白银站上94美元/盎司关口，创历史新高。美股期货走低。 高盛提示，欧盟内部可能呼吁启动反胁迫工具（Anti-Coercion Instrument,ACI）。德银报告更警示欧洲抛售持有的 八万亿美元资产的风险。不论如何，在特朗普政策不确定性迭起之下，全球投资者转向非美资产投资的趋势越来 越显著。 机构警告欧洲报复风险 德意志银行的外汇策略全球主管萨拉维诺斯（George Saravelos）在周日的致客户报告中警示，尽管特朗普就格陵 兰问题对欧洲各国重启贸易威胁，但考虑到美国对欧洲资本的依赖，欧元所受冲击可能受限。更为关键的是，在 美国中期选举临近的敏感时期，欧洲作为美国最大债主，手握关键战略筹码：欧洲 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of $950 million into a gold ETF has reversed the fund's net outflow trend for the year, marking a rare gold rush in global capital markets [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The gold ETF has shown remarkable growth in 2025, with an annual increase nearing 64%, breaking historical records since its inception in 2004 [4] - In early 2026, the gold ETF has already achieved over a 6% increase, outperforming the performance of U.S. stocks during the same period [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Warnings - While retail investors are optimistic about gold as a "sure-win" investment, Goldman Sachs has issued warnings about potential strategic errors in chasing gold prices [4] - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy chief highlighted that gold's volatility is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks, with historical maximum drawdowns reaching 70% [6] - The firm noted that gold has only outperformed inflation in about half of the past 20 years, contrasting with U.S. stocks that have shown stronger inflation resistance [6] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - Historical data indicates that over 30% of deep corrections in gold prices have occurred five times in the last 40 years, often following significant price increases and shifts in monetary policy [9] - Current support for gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a global central bank gold-buying trend, particularly from emerging market central banks [9] - The interplay of de-dollarization, anti-globalization, and persistent geopolitical risks creates a fundamentally different market environment compared to historical patterns [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends an overweight position in U.S. stocks, arguing that unless there is absolute certainty of an economic recession, the stock market will continue to benefit from strong corporate earnings [11] - Despite these recommendations, nearly $1 billion continues to flow into gold ETFs, indicating a widespread belief in gold's safe-haven status, which may itself represent a risk signal [11] - Investors are urged to reconsider the notion of safety in assets when there is a consensus on their security [11]