Moneta外汇认为，西班牙博彩企业Cirsa近期启动的首次公开募股（IPO）引发了全球资本市场的高度关注。作为由美国私募巨头黑石集团控股的企业，Cirsa 此次在马德里证券交易所的上市动作被视为2025年西班牙市场最具看点的IPO之一。 Moneta外汇表示，根据承销商披露的信息，此次IPO已于7月3日正式向投资者开放，并将在7月7日截止。新股将于当日分配，并计划于7月9日正式挂牌交 易。Cirsa希望此次上市实现25.2亿欧元（约合29.7亿美元）的估值目标，而发行规模预计在4.53亿至5.21亿欧元之间。 y 97 跟卓新体验 c高手的超跑 Taxi, 冲刺您的财富目标! | 招数 | 商品 | 股票CFD | 加密货币 | ETF | 债券 w.monetamarkets.com HOMETA HA eta Markets 亿汇 交易返现奖励 值得一提的是，此次IPO包含"绿鞋机制"（greenshoe option），即如果市场需求旺盛，公司可额外发行股份，这为Cirsa进一步扩大融资规模提供了灵活性。 此外，本轮发行还包括部分现有股东的股份转让，体现出公司及投资方对资本结构的积极调整态度。 本次承 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming US June employment report is expected to be a critical turning point for the US dollar's trajectory, with potential implications for monetary policy expectations [1] - The foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with traditional macroeconomic data becoming the primary driver of currency fluctuations, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal policy disputes [1] - A decline in risk aversion has led to downward pressure on US short-term Treasury yields, further diminishing the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs views the June employment report as a "stress test" for the dollar's performance, with a significant miss in expectations likely to trigger concentrated selling of the dollar [2] - If the employment data meets expectations, the market is likely to continue the trend of "moderate dollar depreciation + benefits for risk assets" [2] - This shift in the foreign exchange market narrative is moving away from being driven by geopolitical and fiscal policy factors towards being dominated by traditional economic data [2]

然而，最新证据显示，关税对消费者价格的推动作用较为有限，且通胀放缓的整体趋势更为显著。报告 中提到："关税的影响似乎仅对物价水平产生一次性冲击，而非持续性通胀压力。"这一判断促使高盛重 新评估美联储的政策节奏。 除了关税因素，美联储内部的声音也为降息预期的提前提供了支持。一些美联储公开市场委员会 （FOMC）成员的近期表态显示，只要即将公布的通胀数据不出现大幅超预期上涨，他们对9月降息持 开放态度。特别是美联储理事鲍曼的言论进一步强化了这一可能性。她表示，即便通胀数据略显坚挺， 若主要由关税效应驱动，FOMC成员可能不会过于担忧。这种态度的转变为9月降息铺平了道路。 周三（7月2日）亚市盘中，黄金期货价格上涨，最新沪金价格报775.88元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日开盘于 780.80元/克，最高上探781.00元/克，最低触及775.02元/克。 【要闻速递】 高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius及其团队在最新报告中指出，美联储下一次降息的时间窗口可能提前至9月， 而非此前预计的12月。核心原因在于，他们认为特朗普政府推行的关税政策对通胀的冲击远没有预想中 剧烈。此前，高盛曾担忧夏季关税可能推高月度通胀数据，从 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

高盛：计划将普通股股息提高33%，至每股4.00美元，已向美国证券交易委员会提交相关文件。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].

在经历了十多年来欧洲IPO上半年最慢的时期后，交易员们寄希望于今年晚些时候几笔大型交易能够重 燃市场。据彭博社汇编的数据，到2025年为止，该地区的IPO已筹集约55.2亿美元，较上年下降60%。 美国总统特朗普的关税引发的动荡导致市场冻结数周，虽然一些公司此后开始发行股票，但也有一些公 司推迟或取消了首次公开募股。 ...

收税来了，并且可能长期驻留 摩根士丹利表示，财政部数据显示，美国净关税收入呈现急剧上升趋势：4月份为156亿美元，5月份为222亿美元，6月份截至26日已达273亿美元。6月份数 据年化后达到3270亿美元，占一季度名义GDP年化值的1.1%。 美国进口关税已成为经济重负，关税影响达到"奇点"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在6月30日的报告中表示，美国关税收入已达到惊人规模，6月份年化关税收入达3270亿美元，相当于美国GDP的1.1%。 这一惊人数字对经济和企业构成多重压力，若企业完全吸收关税成本，利润率将从13.8%降至11.7%，低于15年移动平均线12.2%。若全部转嫁给消费者，将 加剧通胀压力。 从税收角度审视，6月份年化关税收入相当于：相当于企业所得税收入的65%；相当于个人预扣税/社保税收入的10%；相当于个人非预扣税收入的32%。 分析师警告，当投资者纠结于消费者还是生产者将承担更多关税、以及这何时会在企业财报或消费者通胀中显现时，他们忽略了一个更大、更重要的事实： 美国进口商已经开始支付大量关税，而且规模惊人。 如果企业完全承担关税成本，将对利润率造成显著冲击。非金融企业一季度税后利润为2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

黄昏时迪拜天际线鸟瞰图。来源：视觉中国 稳定、优惠的税收待遇和理想的生活方式，推动着富豪们寻求新的避风港。财富迁移的趋势，对各经济 体的竞争力和吸引力也有着重大影响。 《环球时报》援引的《全球私人财富迁徙报告》指出，相比2014，中国的百万富翁（拥有100万美元流 动性资产）数量增长了74%，增幅只低于黑山（124%）、阿联酋（98%）、马耳他（87%）和美国 （78%）。 同时也有家长反映，中国的百万富翁们决定留在国内的另一个原因，是其子女面临的海外环境不确定性 越来越大。 另外，该报告还显示，身处粤港澳大湾区的中国香港地区吸引力正逐步恢复，当地预计今年净流入800 名百万富翁。与此同时，泰国正在成为东南亚的后起之秀，预计百万富翁净流入将有450名。 相比之下，新加坡今年的百万富翁净流入量将减少至1600人。但分析公司AlphaGo的首席执行官Parag Khanna指出，新加坡仍保留着政治稳定、高水平监管和税收友好等优势。 新世界财富研究的主管安德鲁·阿莫伊尔斯表示，观察过去十年中全球增长最快的财富市场，就会发现 这些国家大多是百万富翁移民的热门目的地（如黑山、阿联酋、马耳他、美国和哥斯达黎加），或中 国 ...